Forecasting Solar Cycle 25 using comprehensive precursor combination and multiple regression technique

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yating Xiong ◽  
Jianyong Lu ◽  
Kai Zhao ◽  
Meng Sun ◽  
Yang Gao
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Multiple Regression ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Sunspot Cycle ◽  
Original Data ◽  
Regression Technique ◽  
New Model ◽  
Multiple Parameters ◽  
Multiple Regression Technique ◽  
Precursor Information

Abstract In this paper, we propose a new model to predict the complete sunspot cycle based on the comprehensive precursor information (peak, skewness, and maximum geomagnetic index aa of the previous cycle, and start value of predicted cycle). The monthly average sunspot original data are processed by Gaussian smoothing and the new model is validated by the observed sunspots of cycle 24. Compared with the traditional 13-month moving average, the Gaussian filter has less missing information and is better to describe the overall trend of the raw data. Through the permutation and combination of multiple parameters in precursor methods of solar cycle forecasting, the multiple regression technique is used to successfully achieve the peak prediction. The regression coefficient (R) of the empirical model established in this paper can reach 0.95. By adding a new parameter to the original HWR function, we provide a complete solar cycle profile showing unimodal structure. It shows that the peak value of cycle 25 will come in March 2024, with a peak of 140.2.

scholarly journals A Novel Bimodal Forecasting Model for Solar Cycle 25

2022 ◽  
Vol 924 (2) ◽  
pp. 59
Author(s):  
J. Y. Lu ◽  
Y. T. Xiong ◽  
K. Zhao ◽  
M. Wang ◽  
J. Y. Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Sunspot Cycle ◽  
Missing Information ◽  
Geometric Information ◽  
Precursor Method ◽  
Peak Structure ◽  
Cycle 24 ◽  
Precursor Information

Abstract In this paper, a novel bimodal model to predict a complete sunspot cycle based on comprehensive precursor information is proposed. We compare the traditional 13 month moving average with the Gaussian filter and find that the latter has less missing information and can better describe the overall trend of the raw data. Unlike the previous models that usually only use one precursor, here we combine the implicit and geometric information of the solar cycle (peak and skewness of the previous cycle and start value of the predicted cycle) with the traditional precursor method based on the geomagnetic index and adopt a multivariate linear approach with a higher goodness of fit (>0.85) in the fitting. Verifications for cycles 22–24 demonstrate that the model has good performance in predicting the peak and peak occurrence time. It also successfully predicts the complete bimodal structure for cycle 22 and cycle 24, showing a certain ability to predict whether the next solar cycle is unimodal or bimodal. It shows that cycle 25 is a single-peak structure and that the peak will come in 2024 October with a peak of 145.3.

scholarly journals PENGARUH SIKAP SKEPTISME PROFESIONAL AUDITOR, KOMPETENSI BUKTI AUDIT DAN TEKANAN WAKTU TERHADAP PENDETEKSIAN KECURANGAN PADA INSPEKTORAT KABUPATEN BENER MERIAH

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 69-81
Author(s):  
Safriani Yuara ◽  
Ridwan Ibrahim ◽  
Yossi Diantimala
Keyword(s):  
Multiple Regression ◽  
Time Pressure ◽  
Fraud Detection ◽  
Regression Technique ◽  
Professional Skepticism ◽  
Audit Evidence ◽  
Multiple Regression Technique

Abstract This study is aimed at examining the effects of auditor's attitude towards professional skepticism, the competence of audit evidence, and the pressure of time on the detection of fraud in the Bener Meriah Inspectorate Office. The data of the study were collected by distributing questionnaires to all 39 auditors/inspectors of the Inspectorate of Bener Meriah and then analyzed using the multiple regression technique. The study found that: (1) the auditor's attitude toward professional skepticism, the competence of audit evidence, and the time pressures simultaneously and significantly affected the detection of fraud,(2) the auditor's attitude toward professional skepticism positively affected the fraud detection, (3) the competence of audit evidence positively affected the fraud detection,and (4) the time pressures negatively affected the detection of fraud.Keywords: the auditor's attitude, professional skepticism, competence of the audit evidence, time pressure fraud detection. Abstrak Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menguji pengaruh sikap skeptisme profesional auditor, kompetensi bukti audit dan tekanan waktu secara bersama-sama terhadap pendeteksian kecurangan pada Inspektorat Kabupaten Bener Meriah. Penelitian ini merupakan penelitian pengujian hipotesis dengan sumber data yang dikumpulkan dengan kuesioner dan dianalisis dengan menggunakan analisis regresi berganda. Populasi dalam penelitian ini adalah seluruh auditor/pemeriksa di Inspektorat Kabupaten Bener Meriah, dengan responden berjumlah 39 aparatur yang bekerja pada Inspektorat Kabupaten Bener Meriah. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa: (1) sikap skeptisme profesional auditor, kompetensi bukti audit dan tekanan waktu secara simultan berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pendeteksian kecurangan; (2) sikap skeptisme profesional auditor berpengaruh positif terhadap pendeteksian kecurangan; (3) kompetensi bukti audit berpengaruh positif terhadap pendeteksian kecurangan, dan (4) tekanan waktu berpengaruh negatif terhadap pendeteksian kecurangan.Kata kunci: sikap skeptisme profesional auditor, kompetensi bukti audit, tekanan waktu, dan pendeteksian kecurangan

scholarly journals MODEL PENINGKATAN IMPULSE BUYING MELALUI PHYSICAL SURROUNDING, SOCIAL SURROUNDING, DAN SALES PROMOTION

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 71
Author(s):  
Siti Yuliana ◽  
Ken Sudarti
Keyword(s):  
Multiple Regression ◽  
Research Result ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
Sales Promotion ◽  
Regression Technique ◽  
Impulse Buying ◽  
Multiple Regression Technique

This study attempts to know whether physical surrounding , social surrounding , and salespromotion impact on impulse buying , exhibit visitors held in citraland mall .Population in thisresearch is visitors exhibition .Samples to be taken as many as 100 respondents with using atechnique explanory sample , using multiple regression technique .This research result indicatesthat physical surrounding have a positive influence to sales promotion .Social surrounding havea positive influence to sales promotion .Physical surrounding have a positive influence to impulsebuying .Social surrounding have a positive influence to impulse buying .Sales promotion havea positive influence to impulse buyingKeywords : physical surrounding, social surrounding, sales promotion and impulse buying.

scholarly journals Decision Making and Patronage Behaviour in Islamic Co-operatives in Aceh, Indonesia

JEJAK ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 296-303
Author(s):  
M. Shabri Abd Majid ◽  
Faisal Faisal ◽  
Heru Fahlevi ◽  
Hafasnuddin Hafasnuddin
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Multiple Regression ◽  
Services Quality ◽  
Research Question ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Regression Technique ◽  
Purposive Sampling ◽  
Multiple Regression Technique

Although the number of Islamic co-operatives' memberships only amounted to 2.51 million people (11.19%) to the total membership of co-operatives in Indonesia nationwide, but it has shown a rising trend in its membership by 76.11% over the last decade (Ministry of Co-Operatives & SMEs, 2019). These figures raise an essential research question: what drives the decision of Indonesian citizens to patronage Islamic co-operatives? Specifically, this study explores pertinent determinants of decision-making made by the members to select Islamic co-operatives in Aceh, Indonesia. A number of 280 members and non-members of Islamic co-operatives were selected as the sample of the study using a purposive sampling technique. Based on the logistic multiple regression technique, the study recorded that the members' decision-making in selecting Islamic co-operatives was mainly determined by their shari'ah compliance and characteristics' uniqueness. Meanwhile, physical facilities and services quality provided by the Islamic co-operatives have insignificant effects on the people's decision-making to become the memberships of Islamic co-operatives. This empirical evidence suggested that to attract more memberships, the Islamic co-operatives should improve their shari'ah compliance and characteristics' uniqueness.

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