Introduction

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaroslav Tir ◽  
Johannes Karreth
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Conflict Management ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Intergovernmental Organizations ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
Specific Subset ◽  
Self Interest ◽  
Management Techniques ◽  
Ontological Shift

We describe the deleterious consequences of civil wars and note that, despite some successes, common conflict management techniques (mediation, intervention, peacekeeping) still leave much room for improvement in managing civil wars. We argue that an ontological shift is needed, in which civil wars are considered from the perspective of their development. This would allow third parties to address the issue of civil war prevention by taking steps to ensure that nascent, low-level armed conflict does not escalate to full-scale civil war. We maintain that a specific subset of intergovernmental organizations (IGOs), highly structured IGOs [such as the World Bank or International Monetary Fund (IMF)], are particularly well positioned to engage in civil war prevention. Such IGOs have an enduring self-interest in member-state peace and stability and potent tools with which they can incentivize a return to peace.

Managing Civil Wars from the Perspective of Their Development

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaroslav Tir ◽  
Johannes Karreth
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Third Parties ◽  
Full Scale ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Intergovernmental Organizations ◽  
The Will ◽  
Management Approaches

After surveying the literature on the causes, consequences, and management of civil wars, we argue that novel ways of examining civil war management are needed. We advocate for a developmental view of civil wars in order to better understand how to prevent the escalation of low-level armed conflict to full-scale civil war. To prevent full-scale civil war, third parties need to (a) respond swiftly, (b) have the will and ability to impose tangible costs on (and offer benefits to) governments and rebels, and (c) remain involved over the long term. Our analysis shows that typical third-party civil war management approaches (mediation, peacekeeping, and intervention) fail to adequately address at least one of these issues. This motivates our argument in favor of focusing on a different type of third party that could arguably play a particularly constructive role in civil war prevention: highly structured intergovernmental organizations.

The Interplay Between Civil War Development and Highly Structured Intergovernmental Organizations

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaroslav Tir ◽  
Johannes Karreth
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Armed Conflicts ◽  
Intergovernmental Organizations ◽  
Main Hypothesis ◽  
Member States ◽  
Self Interest ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Cost

This chapter defines highly structured intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) and examines their temporal and spatial evolution. It then describes the role that these organizations can play during civil war development. We argue that highly structured IGOs have an inherent, vested self-interest in the domestic peace and stability of member-states; the institutional structure and substantial resources that allow them both to act quickly and to be able to alter the cost-benefit calculations of both the government and rebel sides; and an enduring preference for member-states’ internal peace and stability. These features of highly structured IGOs satisfy all three conditions for successful civil war prevention identified in Chapter 2. The chapter further elaborates on why and how highly structured IGOs sanction member-states at risk of civil war and develops our main hypothesis: states’ memberships in highly structured IGOs decrease the risk that low-level armed conflicts escalate to full-scale civil wars.

Conclusion

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaroslav Tir ◽  
Johannes Karreth
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Conflict Management ◽  
Political Violence ◽  
Economic Incentives ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Intergovernmental Organizations ◽  
State Fragility ◽  
International Environment

After summarizing the theoretical arguments and findings of this book, we discuss key lessons learned from our study. The international environment has a significant influence on civil war development and prevention. Amplifying their conflict-preventing influence on member-states, highly structured intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) often coordinate their activities, especially in the area of political violence and state fragility. We then identify a number of tangible, economic incentives as the main pathways of this influence. Overall, this book suggests that the economic benefits of peace provide a potent temptation—for both governments and rebels—to settle low-level armed conflict before it can escalate to full-scale civil war. With these lessons learned, we also identify suggestions for both the research into and practice of conflict management. The chapter closes by pointing to opportunities for making use of our findings to further capitalize on the role of highly structured IGOs in civil war prevention.

Conflict Management

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara McLaughlin Mitchell ◽  
Patrick M. Regan
Keyword(s):  
Conflict Management ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Interstate Conflict ◽  
Power Parity ◽  
Unified Framework ◽  
Quantitative Studies ◽  
Past Half Century ◽  
Management Techniques ◽  
Usual Suspect ◽  
Past Half

The issue of armed conflict management was first mentioned in the inaugural issue of the Journal of Conflict Resolution in 1957, when Quincy Wright wrote that the resolution of international conflict can be facilitated by national government efforts “to prevent tensions for arising and aggravating disputes […] among nations. Such resolution can also proceed through the application of appropriate methods of negotiation, inquiry, mediation, conciliation, arbitration, judicial settlement […] and the coordination of measures to prevent aggression.” However, there was remarkably little emphasis on studies of negotiation, mediation, or interstate bargaining before the mid-1970s. A more concerted focus on managing armed conflict began in the mid-1970s, and the 1990s and 2000s saw an explosion in the number of published quantitative studies on conflict management, driven in part by the significant growth in data collection projects on interstate conflict management. Over the past half-century, quantitative studies have identified the factors that promote the use and success of interstate conflict management. It should be noted that a lot of the usual suspect variables in the conflict literature, such as power parity, democracy, rivalry, and contiguity, appear in conflict management analyses as well. Yet the dialogue between these two literatures is often limited. On the other hand, conflict management courses typically organize themselves around the dependent variable, examining different forms of conflict management techniques (good offices, mediation, conciliation, arbitration, adjudication, etc.). Progress will be made on both fronts when we start thinking about these processes in a unified framework.

Civilian Self-Protection and Civilian Targeting in Armed Conflicts: Who Protects Civilians?

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Betcy Jose ◽  
Peace A. Medie
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Physical Violence ◽  
International Community ◽  
Armed Conflicts ◽  
Effective Protection ◽  
Civilian Protection ◽  
Vast Literature ◽  
Self Protection

Studies have shown that civilians are often intentionally targeted in civil wars and that civilian protection efforts launched by the international community have not always been successful, if they occur at all. Civilians, therefore, have had to rely on themselves for protection in most conflicts. However, despite the pervasiveness of civilian self-protection (CSP) and its success at protecting civilians from violence in some cases, it is rarely discussed in the civilian protection literature, and its impact on civilian targeting is inadequately explored. Addressing this gap in the study and practice of civilian protection by carefully conceptualizing CSP and appreciating its role in civil war dynamics can further scholarly and practitioner discussions on civilian protection. CSP is defined as (a) actions taken to protect against immediate, direct threats to physical integrity imposed by belligerents or traditional protection actors; (b) primarily selected and employed by civilians; and (c) employed during an armed conflict. CSP strategies can be organized into three categories. The first, non-engagement, describes strategies in which civilians do not interact with belligerents or traditional protection actors who pose a threat to them. The second, nonviolent engagement, entails some interaction with one or more actors who may harm civilians. The third, violent engagement, includes CSP strategies that incorporate physical violence. These CSP strategies may actually render civilians more vulnerable to threats. First, some CSP strategies might lock civilians into unpredictable relationships with belligerents, which can become dangerous. Second, allying with one set of belligerents might lead to targeting by opposition forces, who view these CSP strategies as crucial support for their enemies. Third, civilians may overestimate how successful their CSP strategies can be, exposing them to harm. Fourth, civilian use of violence may cause belligerents to view them as threats, leading to intentional targeting. Appreciation of the reasons why civilians engage in CSP and understanding when and how this may endanger them can inspire more effective protection policies, as well as advance our understanding of civil war dynamics. For instance, further study on these issues can provide some insights into the conditions under which CSP is effective in protecting civilians and how the international community can support CSP. This information could be particularly useful in the design and execution of peacekeeping strategies that are sensitive to the efforts and needs of conflict-affected communities. Additionally, studying CSP can advance the vast literature on civilian targeting by shedding additional light on why belligerents kill civilians.

Getting Religion Right in Civil Wars

2021 ◽  
pp. 002200272199789
Author(s):  
Monica Duffy Toft
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Fourth Section ◽  
The Third ◽  
World Today ◽  
Arab Muslim ◽  
The World

Surveying civil war in the world today is striking in terms of how often religious cleavages and grievances have become central to armed conflict. How are the causes and outcomes of religious civil wars different than other civil wars, if at all? Is Islam implicated for the contemporary surge in religious civil war? The first section reviews the literature and addresses the importance of religion for civil war. I then introduce a dataset and describe key trends in religious civil war in the third section, while in the fourth section I present tests of whether Muslim or Arab Muslim societies in particular are more prone to religious strife. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of the main findings.

scholarly journals Cyclical Youth-Led Conflict as an Early Warning Indicator

2016 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 10-25
Author(s):  
Michelle Legassicke
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
World Bank ◽  
International Community ◽  
Weak State ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
Sustainable Peace ◽  
External Actors ◽  
World Development

The dynamics of conflict are shifting. In the 2011 World Development Report, the World Bank stated that conflicts are now increasingly cyclical and intractable events; 90 percent of the civil wars that occurred in the 2000s were fought within countries that had experienced a domestic conflict in the past 30 years (World Bank, 2011). Countries are more likely to experience cycles of violence due to the persistence of weak state structures that cannot extend their reach into peripheral regions, leading to local instability (Kingston, 2004). Throughout the 1990s and early 2000s, the international community observed several states – in which external actors provided 50 percent of those states’ overall revenues – relapse into civil war (Call, 2012). Given the significant investment by the international community in peacebuilding projects in post-conflict states – whether democratic reforms, economic reforms, capacity building, or sustainable development – there needs to be a significant increase in research focused on civil war recurrence, as the trajectory of post-conflict states cannot be guaranteed without sustainable peace.

The Empirical Record of Highly Structured Intergovernmental Organizations and Armed Conflict Escalation

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaroslav Tir ◽  
Johannes Karreth
Keyword(s):  
World War Ii ◽  
Civil War ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Empirical Test ◽  
Full Scale ◽  
Armed Conflicts ◽  
Intergovernmental Organizations ◽  
Main Hypothesis ◽  
Low Level ◽  
The Impact

For a systematic, empirical test of this book’s main hypothesis, we develop a research design for a quantitative analysis of low-level armed conflicts. We define these conflicts as the occurrence of politically motivated violence resulting in at least twenty-five battle deaths. The analysis examines whether low-level armed conflict escalated to full-scale civil war and surpassed a threshold of 1,000 casualties. Since World War II, roughly one-third of more than 260 separate low-level armed conflicts have escalated to civil war. Analyzing systematic patterns among these conflicts, we find strong evidence favoring our hypothesis. Countries that belong to a larger number of highly structured intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) face a significantly lower risk that emerging low-level armed conflicts on their territories escalate to full-scale civil wars. The impact of a greater number of memberships in highly structured IGOs is substantial, cutting the risk of escalation by more than half.

scholarly journals International Class Solidarity or Foreign Interventions?

1986 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 68-79 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc Jansen
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Foreign Intervention

More or less by definition, civil war refers to an armed conflict between citizens of the same country. However, the two outstanding European examples of this century, the civil wars in Spain and Russia, were in fact complicated by foreign intervention. Indeed, in the case of Spain, intervention by foreign powers proved decisive.

Third-party regime type and civil war duration

2021 ◽  
pp. 002234332097581
Author(s):  
Sara Norrevik ◽  
Mehwish Sarwari
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Regime Type ◽  
Selection Effects ◽  
Intrastate Conflicts ◽  
Party Support ◽  
Conflict Outcomes ◽  
The Relationship

Does the regime type of a foreign intervener influence the duration of civil wars? Existing research has shown that third-party support affects the outcome of a conflict. Moreover, studies show that the type of support offered to conflict actors can determine how a war ends. While this research has offered significant implications on conflict dynamics, extant works have overlooked the importance of characteristics of foreign supporters and how their attributes can impact conflict outcomes. Focusing on foreign troop support and quantities, this article examines the relationship between the regime type of a foreign supporter and the outcome of an armed conflict. We argue that regime type of an external troop sponsor can influence war duration based on two dynamics: selection effects and signaling effects. Specifically, troop assistance provided to warring parties by democracies decreases the length of civil wars and increases the likelihood for a one-sided victory for the supported faction. The empirical findings for all intrastate conflicts during the period 1975–2012 provide evidence for our claims that the regime type of an external intervener influences the outcome of a conflict.

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