Mathematics Between Source And Trap: Uncertainty In Hydrocarbon Migration Modeling
Petroleum geology provides a wide spectrum of data that differs from frontier to mature areas. Data quality and quantity control which mathematical methods and techniques should be applied. In this paper two mathematical methods are shown: fuzzy-set theory and possibility theory as applied to permeability prediction and stochastic modeling of traps and leaks. Both methods are used in the modeling of hydrocarbon migration efficiency. Examples of how data uncertainty may affect final assessment of oil accumulation are presented. The complexity of petroleum geology and its importance to society stimulate research in different scientific areas including mathematical geology, which is becoming steadily more important. Armed with workstations, mainframes, and supercomputers, research laboratories in the petroleum industry investigate sophisticated mathematical techniques and develop complex mathematical models which can speed and improve exploration and lower total exploration costs. Together with classical analysis of geological, geochemical, and seismic data, mathematics provides an additional tool for basin research. The elements of petroleum systems—maturation, expulsion and primary migration, secondary migration, seals, reservoirs, and traps—may be better described by properly applied mathematical techniques. The complexity of petroleum geology and its importance to society stimulate research in different scientific areas including mathematical geology, which is becoming steadily more important. Armed with workstations, mainframes, and supercomputers, research laboratories in the petroleum industry investigate sophisticated mathematical techniques and develop complex mathematical models which can speed and improve exploration and lower total exploration costs. Together with classical analysis of geological, geochemical, and seismic data, mathematics provides an additional tool for basin research. The elements of petroleum systems—maturation, expulsion and primary migration, secondary migration, seals, reservoirs, and traps—may be better described by properly applied mathematical techniques. The applicability of mathematical methods differs in frontier and mature areas and depends upon the quality and quantity of available information. Frontier areas for which data are mostly qualitative require methods which can handle imprecise and limited information easily. Fuzzy-set theory with fuzzy inference algorithms and artificial intelligence are useful approaches. Cokriging and "soft" geostatistical approaches also may be helpful.