Metapopulation Patterns of Iberian Butterflies Revealed by Fuzzy Logic

Metapopulation theory considers that the populations of many species are fragmented into patches connected by the migration of individuals through an interterritorial matrix. We applied fuzzy set theory and environmental favorability (F) functions to reveal the metapopulational structure of the 222 butterfly species in the Iberian Peninsula. We used the sets of contiguous grid cells with high favorability (F ≥ 0.8), to identify the favorable patches for each species. We superimposed the known occurrence data to reveal the occupied and empty favorable patches, as unoccupied patches are functional in a metapopulation dynamics analysis. We analyzed the connectivity between patches of each metapopulation by focusing on the territory of intermediate and low favorability for the species (F < 0.8). The friction that each cell opposes to the passage of individuals was computed as 1-F. We used the r.cost function of QGIS to calculate the cost of reaching each cell from a favorable patch. The inverse of the cost was computed as connectivity. Only 126 species can be considered to have a metapopulation structure. These metapopulation structures are part of the dark biodiversity of butterflies because their identification is not evident from the observation of the occurrence data but was revealed using favorability functions.

Dispersers’ habitat detection and settling abilities modulate the effect of habitat amount on metapopulation resilience

Context Metapopulation theory makes useful predictions for conservation in fragmented landscapes. For randomly distributed habitat patches, it predicts that the ability of a metapopulation to recover from low occupancy level (the “metapopulation capacity”) linearly increases with habitat amount. This prediction derives from describing the dispersal between two patches as a function of their features and the distance separating them only, without interaction with the rest of the landscape. However, if individuals can stop dispersal when hitting a patch (“habitat detection and settling” ability), the rest of habitat may modulate the dispersal between two patches by intercepting dispersers (which constitutes a “shadow” effect). Objectives We aim at evaluating how habitat detection and settling ability, and the subsequent shadow effect, can modulate the relationship between the metapopulation capacity and the habitat amount in the metapopulation. Methods Considering two simple metapopulation models with contrasted animal movement types, we used analytical predictions and simulations to study the relationship between habitat amount and metapopulation capacity under various levels of dispersers’ habitat detection and settling ability. Results Increasing habitat detection and settling ability led to: (i) larger metapopulation capacity values than expected from classic metapopulation theory and (ii) concave habitat amount–metapopulation capacity relationship. Conclusions Overlooking dispersers’ habitat detection and settling ability may lead to underestimating the metapopulation capacity and misevaluating the conservation benefit of increasing habitat amount. Therefore, a further integration of our mechanistic understanding of animals’ displacement into metapopulation theory is urgently needed.

Perturbation drives changing metapopulation dynamics in a top marine predator

Metapopulation theory assumes a balance between local decays/extinctions and local growth/new colonisations. Here we investigate whether recent population declines across part of the UK harbour seal range represent normal metapopulation dynamics or are indicative of perturbations potentially threatening the metapopulation viability, using 20 years of population trends, location tracking data ( n = 380), and UK-wide, multi-generational population genetic data ( n = 269). First, we use microsatellite data to show that two genetic groups previously identified are distinct metapopulations: northern and southern. Then, we characterize the northern metapopulation dynamics in two different periods, before and after the start of regional declines (pre-/peri-perturbation). We identify source–sink dynamics across the northern metapopulation, with two putative source populations apparently supporting three likely sink populations, and a recent metapopulation-wide disruption of migration coincident with the perturbation. The northern metapopulation appears to be in decay, highlighting that changes in local populations can lead to radical alterations in the overall metapopulation's persistence and dynamics.

Coordination among neighbors improves the efficacy of Zika control despite economic costs

BackgroundEmerging mosquito-borne viruses like Zika, dengue, and chikungunya pose a major threat to public health, especially in low-income regions of Central and South America, southeast Asia, and the Caribbean. Outbreaks of these diseases are likely to have long-term social and economic consequences due to Zika-induced congenital microcephaly and other complications. Larval control of the container-inhabiting mosquitoes that transmit these infections is an important tool for mitigating outbreaks. However, metapopulation theory suggests that spatiotemporally uneven larvicide treatment can impede control effectiveness, as recolonization compensates for mortality within patches. Coordinating the timing of treatment among patches could therefore substantially improve epidemic control, but we must also consider economic constraints, since coordination may have costs that divert resources from treatment.Methodology/Principle FindingsTo inform practical disease management strategies, we ask how coordination among neighbors in the timing of mosquito control efforts influences the size of a mosquito-borne infectious disease outbreak under the realistic assumption that coordination has costs. Using an SIR/metapopulation model of mosquito and disease dynamics, we examine whether larvicide treatment triggered by surveillance information from neighboring patches reduces human infections when incorporating coordination costs. We examine how different types of coordination costs and different surveillance methods jointly influence the effectiveness of larval control. We find that the effect of coordination depends on both costs and the type of surveillance used to inform treatment. With epidemiological surveillance, coordination improves disease outcomes, even when costly. With demographic surveillance, coordination either improves or hampers disease control, depending on the type of costs and surveillance sensitivity.Conclusions/SignificanceOur results suggest coordination among neighbors can improve management of mosquito-borne epidemics under many, but not all, assumptions about costs. Therefore, estimating coordination costs is an important step for most effectively applying metapopulation theory to strategies for managing outbreaks of mosquito-borne viral infections.Author SummaryMosquito-borne viruses, such as Zika, are an urgent public health threat, particularly in tropical, low-income regions. Vector control, the main strategy for combatting outbreaks, can be challenging because the urban-adapted, container-breeding mosquitoes that transmit these viruses often exhibit metapopulation dynamics, where mortality in one population is compensated by migration from neighboring populations. The timing and spatial distribution of vector control efforts can therefore have a large impact on their efficacy. Using a model of virus transmission and vector population dynamics, we demonstrate that local mosquito control initiatives aimed at reducing the burden of Zika and other mosquito-borne infections are most effective when there is communication of surveillance findings among neighboring control agencies and coordination over the timing of mosquito reduction treatments. We find that local communication improves epidemic outcomes even when it imposes costs to resource-limited control agencies due to gains in the efficiency of mosquito control from spatial coordination.

Patchy environments, metapopulations, and fugitive species

Populations and species are distributed heterogeneously across the landscape and this has important consequences for their abundance, persistence, and interactions with other species. This chapter introduces the concept of a metapopulation, a “population of populations”, where populations occur in patches of suitable habitat surrounded by areas of unsuitable habitat (“matrix”), and where dispersal serves to connect patch dynamics. Metapopulation theory provides an important conceptual underpinning to the field of conservation biology, fostering the study of corridors and assisted migration as important conservation tools. There also are important parallels between metapopulation theory and epidemiology. The study of patchily distributed populations leads naturally to considerations of species interactions, where it is shown that an inferior competitor may coexist with a superior competitor if the inferior competitor is better a colonizing open patches—a “fugitive species”. This competition-colonization trade-off can be a strong stabilizing mechanism for maintaining biodiversity in a patchy environment.

Defining marine microbial biomes from environmental and dispersal filtered metapopulations

SummaryEnergy and matter fluxes essential for all life1 are modulated by spatial and temporal shifts in microbial community structure resulting from environmental and dispersal filtering2,3, emphasizing the continued need to characterize microbial biogeography4,5. Yet, application of metapopulation theory, traditionally used in general ecology for understanding shifts in biogeographical patterns among macroorganisms, has not been tested extensively for defining marine microbial populations filtered by environmental conditions and dispersal limitation at global ocean scales. Here we show, from applying metapopulation theory on two major global ocean datasets6,7, that microbial populations exhibit core- and satellite distributions with cosmopolitan compared to geographically restricted distributions of populations. We found significant bimodal occupancy-frequency patterns (the different number of species occupying different number of patches) at varying spatial scales, where shifts from bimodal to unimodal patterns indicated environmental and dispersal filtering. Such bimodal occupancy-frequency patterns were validated in Longhurst’s classical biogeographical framework and in silico where observed bimodal patterns often aligned with specific biomes and provinces described by Longhurst and where found to be non-random in randomized datasets and mock communities. Taken together, our results show that application of metapopulation theory provides a framework for determining distinct microbial biomes maintained by environmental and dispersal filtering.