The Resources of Civilization

2020 ◽  
pp. 92-110
Author(s):  
T. K. Wilson
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Information Processing ◽  
State Power ◽  
First Century ◽  
Network Society ◽  
Coercive State ◽  
Late Twentieth ◽  
Risk Managers ◽  
Late Twentieth Century

Borrowing from a phrase of Gladstone’s, this chapter offers thematic reflections on the long-term trajectory outlined in Chapters One and Two. It notes the general aggregation of coercive state power up until the advent of the ‘network society’ of the late twentieth century. Frustratingly for analysts, risk managers, and prophets, the early twen ty-first century looks set to remain open-ended. In any longer-term perspective, the domestic strength of Western governments remains massively impressive. Their coercive capabilities and bureaucratic information-processing capacities remain intact, if they have not actually been enhanced by the information-processing revolutions. States, in short, may not be intrinsically much weaker than they were before the 1990s. And the conspiracies they face remain, if anything, more primitive. But public moods are certainly more febrile: more alarmist, more confused, and more embittered.

scholarly journals Evaluation of flood damage reduction throughout Japan from adaptation measures taken under a range of emissions mitigation scenarios

2021 ◽  
Vol 165 (3-4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tao Yamamoto ◽  
So Kazama ◽  
Yoshiya Touge ◽  
Hayata Yanagihara ◽  
Tsuyoshi Tada ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
First Century ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Damage Cost ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Inundation Depth ◽  
Late Twentieth ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Late Twentieth Century

AbstractThis study aimed to evaluate the impact of climate change on flood damage and the effects of mitigation measures and combinations of multiple adaptation measures in reducing flood damage. The inundation depth was calculated using a two-dimensional unsteady flow model. The flood damage cost was estimated from the unit evaluation value set for each land use and prefectures and the calculated inundation depth distribution. To estimate the flood damage in the near future and the late twenty-first century, five global climate models were used. These models provided daily precipitation, and the change of the extreme precipitation was calculated. In addition to the assessment of the impacts of climate change, certain adaptation measures (land-use control, piloti building, and improvement of flood control level) were discussed, and their effects on flood damage cost reduction were evaluated. In the case of the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario, the damage cost in the late twenty-first century will increase to 57% of that in the late twentieth century. However, if mitigation measures were to be undertaken according to RCP2.6 standards, the increase of the flood damage cost will stop, and the increase of the flood damage cost will be 28% of that in the late twentieth century. By implementing adaptation measures in combination rather than individually, it is possible to keep the damage cost in the future period even below that in the late twentieth century. By implementing both mitigation and adaptation measures, it is possible to reduce the flood damage cost in the late twenty-first century to 69% of that in the late twentieth century.

scholarly journals Seasonal march patterns of the summer rainy season in the Philippines and their long-term variability since the late twentieth century

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ikumi Akasaka ◽  
Hisayuki Kubota ◽  
Jun Matsumoto ◽  
Esperanza O. Cayanan ◽  
Rosalina G. de Guzman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Rainy Season ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Late Twentieth ◽  
Late Twentieth Century ◽  
Seasonal March

An Introduction to Tourism Policing and a Brief History

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-30
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Community Policing ◽  
Private Security ◽  
First Century ◽  
Historical Overview ◽  
Late Twentieth ◽  
Similarities And Differences ◽  
Specific Material ◽  
Late Twentieth Century

Chapter 1 explores what tourism policing and private security are and how they differ from other forms of policing. The chapter provides a brief historical overview of American tourism policing in the late twentieth century and twenty-first century. The chapter addresses the similarities and differences between tourism policing and community policing, how they influence each other and where they separate. Finally, this chapter provides a literary overview of the pertinent literature that regarding tourism policing and addresses the lack of specific material in this field.

The Computer Judge

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Susskind
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Natural Language ◽  
Liberal Democracy ◽  
First Century ◽  
Political Preferences ◽  
Computer Scientists ◽  
Late Twentieth ◽  
Programming Systems ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Late Twentieth Century

What mutton-headed, technologically myopic luddite said this? I confess that these are my own words, as they appeared in 1986 in the Modern Law Review. Although this was comfortably more than thirty years ago, I can recall quite vividly what was going through my head (for want of a better term) when I wrote that passage. Today, I disagree with much that I said then. Emotionally, I no longer have any sense of horror in contemplating the possibility that judges might roundly be outperformed by machines. Technically, the passage of time has put me out of date. Computers often can (in some constrained circumstances) satisfactorily process speech and natural language. I also failed (along with most computer scientists) to predict that many of the remarkable advances in computing would come not through explicitly programming systems (whether, for example, to exhibit political preferences or creativity) but through machines ‘learning’ from vast sets of accumulated data. Morally, when I spoke of the values of western liberal democracy, I was reflecting the mood of the late twentieth century. As technology advances, it transpires, as Jamie Susskind explains in Future Politics, that our political conceptions change too. Liberal democracy in the twenty-first century may be significantly different from its ancestor.

Conclusion

2018 ◽  
pp. 222-234
Author(s):  
Stuart Aveyard ◽  
Paul Corthorn ◽  
Sean O’Connell
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Consumer Credit ◽  
Political Ideologies ◽  
European Consumer ◽  
Late Twentieth ◽  
Post War ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Late Twentieth Century

The long-term perspective taken by The Politics of Consumer Credit in the UK affords fresh evidence on a number of significant historical debates. It indicates that Britain’s departure from pathways followed in other European consumer credit markets was not simply a by-product of neo-liberalism’s influence on late-twentieth-century governments. It has also allowed us to offer important contributions on questions such as the impact of political ideologies over policymaking, the validity of a right–left framework for analysing politics, the extent to which a post-war consensus existed (and was broken after 1979), and the question of how adept British political parties were in exploiting the emergence of a more affluent electorate....

scholarly journals Impacts of climate change on hurricane flood hazards in Jamaica Bay, New York

2020 ◽  
Vol 163 (4) ◽  
pp. 2153-2171
Author(s):  
Reza Marsooli ◽  
Ning Lin
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Twentieth Century ◽  
First Century ◽  
Flood Hazards ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Flood Level ◽  
Jamaica Bay ◽  
Late Twentieth ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Late Twentieth Century

AbstractSea level rise (SLR) and tropical cyclone (TC) climatology change could impact future flood hazards in Jamaica Bay—an urbanized back-barrier bay in New York—yet their compound impacts are not well understood. This study estimates the compound effects of SLR and TC climatology change on flood hazards in Jamaica Bay from a historical period in the late twentieth century (1980–2000) to future periods in the mid- and late-twenty-first century (2030–2050 and 2080–2100, under RCP8.5 greenhouse gas concentration scenario). Flood return periods are estimated based on probabilistic projections of SLR and peak storm tides simulated by a hydrodynamic model for large numbers of synthetic TCs. We find a substantial increase in the future flood hazards, e.g., the historical 100-year flood level would become a 9- and 1-year flood level in the mid- and late-twenty-first century and the 500-year flood level would become a 143- and 4-year flood level. These increases are mainly induced by SLR. However, TC climatology change would considerably contribute to the future increase in low-probability, high-consequence flood levels (with a return period greater than 100 year), likely due to an increase in the probability of occurrence of slow-moving but intense TCs by the end of twenty-first century. We further conduct high-resolution coastal flood simulations for a series of SLR and TC scenarios. Due to the SLR projected with a 5% exceedance probability, 125- and 1300-year flood events in the late-twentieth century would become 74- and 515-year flood events, respectively, in the late-twenty-first century, and the spatial extent of flooding over coastal floodplains of Jamaica Bay would increase by nearly 10 and 4 times, respectively. In addition, SLR leads to larger surface waves induced by TCs in the bay, suggesting a potential increase in hazards associated with wave runup, erosion, and damage to coastal infrastructure.

Junkspace

October ◽  
2002 ◽  
Vol 100 ◽  
pp. 175-190 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rem Koolhaas
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
First Century ◽  
Late Twentieth ◽  
World Class ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Late Twentieth Century

Logan Airport: A World-Class Upgrade for the Twenty-first Century Late-Twentieth Century Billboard

scholarly journals Listening to Advisors: A Conversation About Readers’ Advisory Services, Practice, and Practicing

2019 ◽  
Vol 59 (1) ◽  
pp. 2
Author(s):  
Neal Wyatt
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Public Library ◽  
First Century ◽  
The Public ◽  
Early Twenty ◽  
Late Twentieth ◽  
Book Group ◽  
Reference Tools ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Late Twentieth Century

As RA service has moved from its second-wave renaissance during the late twentieth century/early twenty-first century (with a steady stream of reference tools, conference programming, and think pieces) into an often underpromoted but bedrock mainstay of the public library, what do advisors continue to discuss among themselves and see as areas of need? If you could gather a handful of advisors together, over a cup of coffee one rainy morning before book group began, what would they talk about? What would they ask each other? What do they know to be foundational about the service? As important, what might they suggest we all re-think? This column invites you to eavesdrop on such a conversation. It was conducted over email between six advisors: two at the start of their careers, two helping to define the field, and two who have lead the way for librarians, for a combined eight decades. These advisors share research, hard-won and lived-in lessons, showcase the luminous nature of RA work as well as its difficulties, propose a change for RA education, and, of course, each suggests a book to read.

Afterword

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Margaret Bendroth
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
American Culture ◽  
The Public ◽  
Billy Graham ◽  
Late Twentieth ◽  
American Society ◽  
Long Term Impact ◽  
American Evangelicalism ◽  
Late Twentieth Century

This chapter assesses Billy Graham’s long-term impact on American evangelicalism and American culture. At last estimates, he evangelized over two billion people during his sixty-year career. He remained culturally nimble enough to stay in the public eye through all the tumultuous years of the late twentieth century. Billy Graham did not just reflect his times—he also changed them. Exactly what that means is a matter of debate. Despite the evangelist’s durable popularity, his legacy is surprisingly difficult to measure. This chapter identifies that there are uncertainties about the future of the evangelical world Billy Graham shaped, and that the long-term prospects for religion in American society remain uncertain. It also discusses the possible successors to Graham and posits that a successor—if there will be one at all—is unlikely to be an American.

Creating a Framework for Music Making and Leisure

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marie McCarthy
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
First Century ◽  
Social Functions ◽  
Music Making ◽  
The Social ◽  
Music Community ◽  
Late Twentieth ◽  
Leisure And Recreation ◽  
Action Music ◽  
Late Twentieth Century

This chapter revisits the writings of music sociologist and educator Max Kaplan (1911–1998) to inform efforts to bring together the domains of leisure and music making in the twenty-first century. The chapter begins with a brief description of Max Kaplan’s life that explains his orientation to the social functions of music, sociology, and leisure studies, and that situates his contributions in the context of his time—the mid and late twentieth century. Following the introduction, the chapter is organized around themes from Kaplan’s published works and projects: patterns of development in leisure and recreation, 1900–1960; changing conceptions of leisure and recreation in the mid-twentieth century; a theory of recreational music; community as fertile ground for observing leisure in action; music making in the context of leisure; and moving forward with Kaplan’s vision.

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