Drone Proliferation in the Twenty-first Century

2018 ◽  
pp. 577-592
Author(s):  
Sarah Kreps ◽  
Matt Fuhrmann ◽  
Michael Horowitz
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles ◽  
Authoritarian Regimes ◽  
First Century ◽  
Regime Type ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Policy Issues ◽  
Counter Terrorism ◽  
Aerial Vehicles ◽  
Targeted Attacks

What are the causes and consequences of the proliferation of armed unmanned aerial vehicles, or drones? The chapter outlines several potential reasons why actors might acquire the technology: operational incentives, technological availability, regime type, and emulation before discussing the consequences of this acquisition. The consequences of drone proliferation are context dependent: drone proliferation carries potentially significant consequences for counter-terrorism operations and domestic control in authoritarian regimes. Drones lower the costs of using force by eliminating the risk to pilots, making some states—especially democracies—more likely to carry out targeted attacks against suspected militants. This technology also provides autocratic leaders with a new tool to bolster their domestic regime security. The chapter’s analysis has implications for a range of policy issues: the regulation of drone exports, the management of hotspots such as East Asia and the Middle East, and defense against potential terrorist attacks on the homeland.

scholarly journals The Wane of Command: Evidence on Drone Strikes and Control within Terrorist Organizations

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
ANOUK S. RIGTERINK
Keyword(s):  
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Terrorist Organizations ◽  
Aerial Vehicles ◽  
Terrorist Groups ◽  
Drone Strikes ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Better Than

This paper investigates how counterterrorism targeting terrorist leaders affects terrorist attacks. This effect is theoretically ambiguous and depends on whether terrorist groups are modeled as unitary actors or not. The paper exploits a natural experiment provided by strikes by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (drones) “hitting” and “missing” terrorist leaders in Pakistan. Results suggest that terrorist groups increase the number of attacks they commit after a drone “hit” on their leader compared with after a “miss.” This increase is statistically significant for 3 out of 6 months after a hit, when it ranges between 47.7% and 70.3%. Additional analysis of heterogenous effects across groups and leaders, and the impact of drone hits on the type of attack, terrorist group infighting, and splintering, suggest that principal-agent problems—(new) terrorist leaders struggling to control and discipline their operatives—account for these results better than alternative theoretical explanations.

Counter-terrorism system in Poland: selected issues

2017 ◽  
Vol 105 (4) ◽  
pp. 153-166 ◽  
Author(s):  
Justyna Trubalska
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Social Economic ◽  
Religious Fundamentalism ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Terrorist Threat ◽  
Internal Security ◽  
Counter Terrorism ◽  
The World ◽  
Systematic Development

Abstract Today we are seeing a systematic development of terrorist organisations in the world. Social, economic and political problems in Africa and the Middle East, as well as religious fundamentalism generate threats of terrorism. If we consider in this context both Poland’s geopolitical situation, and involvement in stabilisation operations in Afghanistan and Iraq, those factors make our country a potential target for terrorist attacks. Although for years the level of terrorist threat in Poland is assessed as low, the risk analysis of this kind cannot be underestimated in the context of the analysis of internal security of the state. The main aim of this article is to answer the question whether there is an effective counter-terrorism system in Poland. This is done by attempting to capture the essence and demonstrating its unique features by analysing its individual components, i.e. regulations, entities forming the analysed system and relationships between the indicated elements.

scholarly journals The Emperor Needs New Clothes: Securitizing Threats in the Twenty-First Century

2002 ◽  
Author(s):  
Volker Franke
Keyword(s):  
Cold War ◽  
International Relations ◽  
Conceptual Model ◽  
September 11 ◽  
First Century ◽  
Security Policies ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Policy Issues ◽  
Complex Theory ◽  
The Cold War

The terrorist attacks of September 11 brought to a head change that had been underway since the end of the Cold War in how we think about security: (1) there is no longer consensus about who or what constitutes the “enemy”; (2) Realism as the dominating paradigm for studying international relations is collapsing; (3) domestic factors are gaining importance for devising security policies; and (4) with increasing globalization these domestic factors attain impact beyond national borders. In this article, I examine the nature of these developments and illustrate that the concept of security is often misapplied for political gain and/or to justify extraordinary measures for countering impending or perceived threats. Comparing various conceptions of security, I analyze the dangers resulting from oversecuritization, which is the propensity to treat traditional policy issues as existential threats to security, and demonstrate the need to more clearly define the distinction betw-een nonexistential and existential threats that justify extraordinary measures. Expanding on classical security complex theory, I propose a conceptual model that links security sectors and can be applied to develop measurable criteria for distinguishing between those issues that should be securitized and those that can be addressed through existing policy channels.

Separating Fact from Fiction in the Debate over Drone Proliferation

2016 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
pp. 7-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael C. Horowitz ◽  
Sarah E. Kreps ◽  
Matthew Fuhrmann
Keyword(s):  
International Security ◽  
Authoritarian Regimes ◽  
Interstate Conflict ◽  
Large Impact ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Current Generation ◽  
Coercive Diplomacy ◽  
Policy Issues ◽  
Drone Strikes ◽  
The Impact

What are the consequences of drone proliferation for international security? Despite extensive discussions in the policy world concerning drone strikes for counterterrorism purposes, myths about the capabilities and implications of current-generation drones often outstrip reality. Understanding the impact of drones requires separating fact from fiction by examining their effects in six different contexts—counterterrorism, interstate conflict, crisis onset and deterrence, coercive diplomacy, domestic control and repression, and use by nonstate actors for the purposes of terrorism. Although current-generation drones introduce some unique capabilities into conflicts, they are unlikely to produce the dire consequences that some analysts fear. In particular, drone proliferation carries potentially significant consequences for counterterrorism operations and domestic control in authoritarian regimes. Drones could also enhance monitoring in disputed territories, potentially leading to greater stability. Given their technical limitations, however, current-generation drones are unlikely to have a large impact on interstate warfare. Assessing the consequences of drone proliferation has important implications for a range of policy issues, including the management of regional disputes, the regulation of drone exports, and defense against potential terrorist attacks on the homeland.

Rise of the Unmanned Aerial Vehicles: An Imminent Public Health Threat Mandating Counter-Terrorism Medicine Preparedness for Potential Mass-Casualty Attacks

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-3
Author(s):  
Derrick Tin ◽  
Zachary Kallenborn ◽  
Alexander Hart ◽  
Attila J. Hertelendy ◽  
Gregory R. Ciottone
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles ◽  
Mass Casualty ◽  
Disaster Prevention ◽  
Modus Operandi ◽  
Health Threat ◽  
Counter Terrorism ◽  
Aerial Vehicles ◽  
Public Health Threat

Abstract The mass proliferation and increasing affordability of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in recent years has given rise to weaponized UAV use by terrorists, leading to mounting and credible concerns this attack methodology will be the next terrorism modus operandi. Counter-Terrorism Medicine (CTM) specialists need to consider how UAVs alter or create new mass-casualty scenarios that can further exploit existing medical preparedness vulnerabilities. With an opportunity to be proactive in disaster prevention, mitigation, and preparedness, it is imperative this gathering storm be acknowledged and stakeholders explore how best to prepare for, respond to, and mitigate the consequences of UAV incidents.

Droning On: Explaining the Proliferation of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

2017 ◽  
Vol 71 (2) ◽  
pp. 397-418 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew Fuhrmann ◽  
Michael C. Horowitz
Keyword(s):  
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles ◽  
Strong Predictor ◽  
First Century ◽  
Territorial Disputes ◽  
Supply Side ◽  
Security Threats ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Aerial Vehicles ◽  
Supply Side Factors ◽  
Threat Environment

AbstractUnmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), more popularly known as “drones,” have become emblematic of twenty-first century military technologies but scholars have yet to convincingly explain the drivers of UAV proliferation. Using the first systematic data set of UAV proliferation, this research note examines the spread of UAVs in the context of scholarly debates about interests versus capacity in explaining policy adoption. The results yield important insights for both IR scholarship and the policy-making community. While countries that experience security threats—including territorial disputes and terrorism—are more likely to seek UAVs, drone proliferation is not simply a function of the threat environment. We find evidence that democracies and autocracies are more likely than mixed regimes to develop armed UAV programs, and suggest that autocracies and democracies have their own unique incentives to acquire this technology. Moreover, supply-side factors play a role in the UAV proliferation process: a state's technological capacity is a strong predictor of whether it will obtain the most sophisticated UAVs. The theories and evidence we present challenge emerging views about UAV proliferation and shed useful light on how and why drones spread.

scholarly journals Terrorist financing beyond 9/11

2007 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Loretta Napoleoni
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Financial Structure ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Patriot Act ◽  
Counter Terrorism ◽  
Terrorist Financing ◽  
War In Iraq ◽  
The Impact

This article analyzes the impact of counter-terrorism policies, e.g., the Patriot Act and the war in Iraq, on the financial structure of European terror networks and argues that such policies, far from defeating Jihadist activities, ended up boosting them. In response to such measures, terror finances have been skillfully restructured, the main changes being the decentralization of funding activity in Europe and in the Middle East and the declining cost of terrorist attacks.

China’s Counter-Terrorism Policy in the Middle East

2018 ◽  
pp. 141-156 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mordechai Chaziza
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
National Security ◽  
Homeland Security ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Counter Terrorism ◽  
It Impacts ◽  
Terrorist Groups ◽  
At Home

This chapter analyzes China's counter-terrorism policy in the Middle East, and the linkage between the threats posed by terrorist groups at home and abroad. Specifically, this is an investigation of China's counter-terrorism policy in response to the growing threat of terrorism and the linkage between Uyghur terrorism in Xinjiang and the increase in Islamist terrorist attacks in the Middle East as it impacts upon China's national security. These terrorist activities and the connections between them show that terrorism and radicalization transcend boundaries and regions, threatening not only countries in the Middle East but also China’s homeland security.

scholarly journals The US National Efforts to Counter Domestic Terrorism: Progress and Controversy

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 69
Author(s):  
Faruq Arjuna Hendroy
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Domestic Terrorism ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
National Strategy ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
Counter Terrorism ◽  
The Us ◽  
Terrorism Threat ◽  
Terrorist Groups ◽  
The U.S

The article examines the increasing domestic terrorism threat within the U.S. borders and how the U.S. government responded to it. The robust maneuver of the U.S. ledcoalition in the Middle East to coercively hunt down the terrorist groups does not fully stop them from posing the threat. Ironically, the terrorist groups direct their attacks to the U.S. homeland through their small networks. It is not difcult to build networks in the U.S. homeland, since the the advance of millennium technology enables them to radicalize people from long distance. The U.S. surely concerns about the increasing number of terrorist attacks within its borders, that it recently issued a set of national counter-terrorism strategy combining both coercive and soft approach. However, the approval of discriminatory and controversial travel ban policy was believed to hamper the existing national strategy, mistarget the main causes, and create new problems.

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