Mathematical Alternatives to Standard Probability that Provide Selectable Degrees of Precision

Author(s):  
Terrence Fine

This chapter challenges the nearly universal reliance upon standard mathematical probability for mathematical modeling of chance and uncertain phenomena, and offers four alternatives. In standard practice, precise assignments are made inappropriately, even to the occurrences of events that may be unobservable in principle. Four familiar examples of chance or uncertain phenomena are discussed, about which this is true. The theory of measurement provides an understanding of the relationship between the accuracy of information and the precision with which the phenomenon under examination should be modeled mathematically. The model of modal or classificatory probability offers the least precision. Comparative probability, plausibility/belief functions and upper/lower probabilities are carefully considered. The selectable precision of these alternative mathematical models of chance and uncertainty makes for an improved range of levels of accuracy in modeling the empirical domain phenomena of chance, uncertainty, and indeterminacy. Knowledge of such models encourages further thought in this direction.

2014 ◽  
Vol 659 ◽  
pp. 63-68 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carmen Adriana Cîrstoiu ◽  
Carmen Popa ◽  
Veronica Despa

The present work aims to investigate the tool-chip interface temperature as functions of cutting parameters and also establishes an equation between the surface roughness and the temperature in the cutting area. Based on the experimental results, there were determined mathematical models, by using the factorial designs combined with the regression techniques.


Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (13) ◽  
pp. 1569
Author(s):  
Jesús Montejo-Gámez ◽  
Elvira Fernández-Ahumada ◽  
Natividad Adamuz-Povedano

This paper shows a tool for the analysis of written productions that allows for the characterization of the mathematical models that students develop when solving modeling tasks. For this purpose, different conceptualizations of mathematical models in education are discussed, paying special attention to the evidence that characterizes a school model. The discussion leads to the consideration of three components, which constitute the main categories of the proposed tool: the real system to be modeled, its mathematization and the representations used to express both. These categories and the corresponding analysis procedure are explained and illustrated through two working examples, which expose the value of the tool in establishing the foci of analysis when investigating school models, and thus, suggest modeling skills. The connection of this tool with other approaches to educational research on mathematical modeling is also discussed.


2013 ◽  
Vol 18 (9) ◽  
pp. 571

This call for manuscripts is requesting articles that address how to use mathematical models to analyze, predict, and resolve issues arising in the real world.


2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 49-55
Author(s):  
Nareerut Jariyapunya ◽  
Blažena Musilová

AbstractBased on the mechanical properties of stretch fabrics and Laplace’s law, the mathematical models have been developed enabling one to determine the values of the relationship between the fabric strain and the circumferential stress depending on pressure and diameter of the body. The results obtained refer to the values of the parameters assessed for the initial phase of their exploitation, which allow us to preliminarily predict the values of these parameters.


2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 328-334
Author(s):  
E. Ya. Yanchevskaya ◽  
O. A. Mesnyankina

Mathematical modeling of diseases is an urgent problem in the modern world. More and more researchers are turning to mathematical models to predict a particular disease, as they help the most correct and accurate study of changes in certain processes occurring in society. Mathematical modeling is indispensable in certain areas of medicine, where real experiments are impossible or difficult, for example, in epidemiology. The article is devoted to the historical aspects of studying the possibilities of mathematical modeling in medicine. The review demonstrates the main stages of development, achievements and prospects of this direction.


Author(s):  
Olena Bibik ◽  
◽  
Oleksandr Popovich ◽  

The mode of operation of induction motors (IMs) affects their performance. In most cases, motors are optimally designed for steady state operation. When operating in other modes, additional attention is required to the problems of energy efficiency. Induction motors are the most common type of electromechanical energy converters, and a significant part of them operate under conditions of periodic changes in the load torque. The work is devoted to solving the problem of increasing the energy efficiency of asynchronous motors of electromechanical systems with a periodic load, including pumping and compressor equipment. The traditional solution to this problem for compressor equipment is the optimal design of an IM under static conditions, as well as the use of flywheels, the use of an IM with an increased slip value and controlled IM with a squirrel-cage rotor and with frequency converters. In this work, the modes of operation of asynchronous motors with periodic loading are investigated. For this, complex mathematical models are developed in the simulation system. Such models are effective in modeling taking into account periodic load changes: repetitive transient processes, their possible asymmetry and non-sinusoidality, increased influence of nonlinearity of electromagnetic parameters. In complex mathematical modeling, the mutual influence of the constituent parts of the electromechanical system is taken into account. Simulation allowed quantifying the deterioration in energy efficiency under intermittent loading, in comparison with static modes. Criteria for evaluating quasi-static modes have been developed and areas of critical decrease in efficiency have been determined. The paper proposes and demonstrates a methodology for solving this problem. For this purpose, tools have been created for the optimal design of asynchronous motors as part of electromechanical systems with periodic loading. These tools include: complex mathematical models of electromechanical systems with asynchronous motors with periodic load, mathematical tools for determining the parameters of quasi-steady-state modes, the methodology of optimal design based on the criterion of the maximum efficiency of processes under quasi-steady-state modes of operation. The possibilities, advantages and prospects of using the developed mathemati-cal apparatus for solving a number of problems to improve the efficiency of electric drives of compressor and pumping equipment are demonstrated. It is shown that by taking into account quasi-static processes, the use of complex mathematical models for the optimal design of asynchronous motors with a periodic load provides an in-crease in efficiency up to 8 ... 10%, relative to the indicators of motors that are de-signed without taking into account the quasi-static modes. The areas of intense quasi-steady-state modes are determined using the devel-oped criterion. In these areas, there is a critical decrease in efficiency compared to continuous load operation. A decrease in efficiency is associated with a decrease in the amount of kinetic energy of the rotating parts compared to the amount of electromagnetic energy. In connection with the development of a frequency-controlled asynchronous drive of mechanisms with a periodic load, the relevance of design taking into account the peculiarities of quasi-static has increased significantly. For example, a variable frequency drive of a refrigerator compressor or a heat pump can increase energy efficiency up to 40%, but at low speeds, due to a decrease in kinetic energy, the efficiency can decrease to 10 ... 15%, unless a special design methodology is applied. This problem can be solved by using the complex mathematical modeling tools developed in the article.


Author(s):  
Anastasia S. Babkina

Abstract. The paper presents changes and mathematical models of autofluorescence of reduced nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (NADH) and flavin adenine dinucleotide (FAD) and their redox ratio (RR) in the rat skeletal muscle during the first 24 hours after death. Aim. To establish a pattern of change in the fluorescence intensity of NADH and FAD coenzymes, as well as their relationship in the skeletal muscle during the first 24 hours after death using mathematical modeling. Material and methods. The experiment was performed on Sprague Dawley rats. The fluorescence intensity of FAD and NADH coenzymes in skeletal muscle was measured in situ in living rats under general anesthesia, 5 minutes after euthanasia, and at intervals of 1.5-3 h during the 24-hour postmortem period. To estimate the fluorescence intensity of NADH and FAD coenzymes and to calculate the RR, the Lasma MC-3 fluorescence measuring device with special software was used. The obtained data were analyzed by non-linear regression analysis. The summary, accuracy estimation and significance of the regression equation coefficients were assessed using SigmaPlot 10.0 software. The significance of the regression model was tested using the Fisher F-criterion. Results. During the first 3 hours of the postmortem period, an increase in the mean values of RR and NADH fluorescence was detected, starting from 4.5 and till 24 hours post-mortem their gradual decrease was observed. The relationship between NADH, RR and time after death is characterized by the Weibull equation. The statistical significance of NADH and RR models, based on the obtained equations was considered high. Conclusion. The analysis of the obtained data allowed to create mathematical models describing the relationship between RR and NADH fluorescence intensity and time after death, which confirms non-randomness and regularity of the discovered patterns.time of death; NADH; FAD; auto-fluorescence; redox ratio; early post-mortem changes


In this manuscript has presented the results of applying modern methods of mathematical modeling in animal husbandry. To conduct the research has used the method of least squares, which has reflected in the work by approximation probabilistic non-linear relations, making it possible to establish the relationship between different measurements the body parts of animal and meat productivity, and linear measurements of the udder.


2014 ◽  
Vol 1040 ◽  
pp. 478-483
Author(s):  
M. Goreshnev ◽  
E. Litvishko

The article is devoted to the mathematical modeling of vacuum conductive timber drying. Analysis of known mathematical models allowed revealing their advantages and disadvantages. The modeling block diagram based on the drying periods is proposed. Lykov’s equations have been selected to solve heat and mass transfer problems. The comparison of experimental and calculated data has been conducted.


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