Background:
The precise role of stroke risk factors in middle-aged people remains a significant knowledge gap. Confounding risk factors conferred by young and elderly stroke are largely avoided, providing a unique opportunity to understand the relationship between traditional risk factors and stroke. We aimed to determine the predictors of stroke and myocardial infarction (MI) in a unique middle-aged cohort with MRI-defined lacunar stroke.
Methods:
We conducted a reanalysis of data from the Secondary Prevention of Small, Subcortical Strokes (SPS3) clinical trial. We focused on middle-aged study participants, defined as those aged 40-60 years at study entry. We used multivariate Cox regression models to estimate the risk of recurrent stroke or MI.
Results:
Out of 3,020 total subjects from SPS3, 1,312 (mean age 53 [SD 5], 445 females [34%]) were in the middle-aged category and were included in this analysis. Of these, there were 619 (47%) white, 297 (23%) black, and 283 (22%) Hispanic subjects. Over a mean follow-up time of 3.90 years, there were 123 strokes (2.6% per patient-year) and 33 MIs (0.7% per patient-year). The rates (% per patient-year) of having a stroke or MI differed significantly across white (n=59, 2.7%), black (n=54, 5.1%), and Hispanic (n=27, 2.8%) ethnic groups (p=0.006). Significant risk factors for recurrent stroke or MI are described for middle-aged and all SPS3 subjects in the table.
Conclusions:
In middle-aged individuals with prior stroke, diabetes, greater white matter disease severity, black race, and family history were potent predictors of recurrent stroke. Male sex, diabetes, and heart disease were potent predictors of MI. Compared to the entire SPS3 cohort, these predictors confer a greater risk for recurrent stroke or MI in the middle-aged. These data identify modifiable risk factors and target populations that are especially vulnerable to vascular events or complications.
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