scholarly journals Rationale Erklärungen für Immobilienpreis-Bubbles: Die Auswirkungen von Risikoschocks auf die Wohnimmobilienpreisvolatilität und die Volatilität von Investitionen in Wohnimmobilien

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 151-169 ◽  
Author(s):  
Viktor Dorofeenko ◽  
Gabriel S. Lee ◽  
Kevin D. Salyer
Keyword(s):  
Housing Price ◽  
Information Frictions ◽  
Residential Investment ◽  
Boom And Bust ◽  
The Media ◽  
Business Cycle Model ◽  
Investment Boom ◽  
Boom And Bust Cycles ◽  
The U.S

AbstractThe dramatic world-wide housing boom and bust cycles during the last few years are often described in the media as “bubbles” and were largely caused by irrational exuberance due to the liberalization of housing finance (i.e. credit market irregularities in the U.S.: the subprime markets and mortgage structured products). Following Dorofeenko et al (2011), this paper, however, argues that many of the business and housing stylized facts, especially, the U.S. housing price and residential investment volatilites can be explained by analyzing the role of uncertainty (risk) in the framework of a Real Business Cycle model that includes a housing sector with financial information frictions. Consequently, we show for the U.S., these large housing price and residential investment boom and bust cycles are at least were driven largely by economic fundamentals with irrationality (or psychology) at most in the background.

scholarly journals ENDOGENOUS FIRM ENTRY IN AN ESTIMATED MODEL OF THE U.S. BUSINESS CYCLE

2017 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 284-321 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sven Offick ◽  
Roland C. Winkler
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Minor Role ◽  
Firm Entry ◽  
Variety Effect ◽  
Amplification Mechanism ◽  
Business Cycle Model ◽  
A Minor ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Real Business Cycle Model

A recent theoretical literature highlights the role of endogenous firm entry as an internal amplification mechanism of business cycle fluctuations. The amplification mechanism works through the competition effect (CE) and the variety effect (VE). This paper tests the significance of this amplification mechanism, quantifies its importance, and disentangles the CE and VE. To this end, we estimate a medium-scale real business cycle model with firm entry for the U.S. economy. The CE and VE are estimated to be statistically significant. Together, they amplify the volatility of output by 8.5% relative to a model in which both effects are switched off. The CE accounts for most amplification, whereas the VE only plays a minor role.

On the U.S. Budget Deficit Dilemma: Has Television Contributed?

1996 ◽  
Vol 40 (2) ◽  
pp. 77-85
Author(s):  
Ali F. Darrat ◽  
Bill P. Bowers
Keyword(s):  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Federal Budget ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Federal Budget Deficit ◽  
Alternative Measures ◽  
The Media ◽  
Fiscal Conservatism ◽  
Fast Evolution ◽  
The U.S

We advance several theoretical reasons for arguing that expansion in television viewership may have contributed to the recent escalation in the U.S. budget deficit. We then develop a multivariate model to test the validity of the hypothesis using alternative measures of television viewership. The empirical results could not reject our contention that the fast evolution of the U.S. television viewership since the early 1970s has significantly contributed to the escalating size of the federal budget deficit over and above the effects of several other possible macro determinants. This evidence provides some support to the claim that there exists a “liberal” bias within the media (particularly television) that undermines fiscal conservatism. Therefore, it appears advisable for policy-makers to take into account the role of television if they aspire to understand and ultimately control the mounting federal budget deficit.

Introduction

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Arthur E. Wilmarth Jr.
Keyword(s):  
Great Recession ◽  
Conflicts Of Interest ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Past Century ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
The Great Depression ◽  
Boom And Bust ◽  
Investment Advisers ◽  
Boom And Bust Cycles ◽  
The U.S

Universal banks arose in the U.S. during two periods in the past century—the 1920s and the late 1990s. On both occasions, universal banks in the U.S. and Europe promoted intense boom-and-bust cycles that led to global calamities—the Great Depression of the early 1930s and the Great Recession of 2007–09. Universal banks received extensive bailouts on both sides of the Atlantic during both crises. Three core features of universal banks cause them to generate destructive boom-and-bust cycles. First, pervasive conflicts of interest prevent them from acting as objective lenders or as impartial investment advisers. Second, bonus-driven cultures encourage their insiders to take speculative risks to produce short-term profits. Third, their ability to convert loans into asset-backed securities allows them to package risky loans into securities sold as purportedly “safe” investments to poorly informed investors. The Glass-Steagall Act of 1933 broke up universal banks and established structural buffers that prevented spillovers of risk between the banking system and other financial sectors. The U.S. avoided systemic financial crises after World War II until Glass-Steagall was undermined by regulators and ultimately repealed by Congress. Congress failed to adopt similar structural reforms after the Great Recession. As a result, universal banks continue to dominate our financial markets and pose unacceptable systemic dangers. We urgently need a new Glass-Steagall Act to break up universal banks again and restore a more stable and resilient financial system.

Covid-19, Media Reporting, and the Role of Bioethicists

2021 ◽  
Vol 66 (Special Issue) ◽  
pp. 137-138
Author(s):  
Federico Nicoli ◽  
◽  
Paul J. Cummins ◽  
Joseph A. Raho ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
News Media ◽  
Media Coverage ◽  
The Other ◽  
Scientific Uncertainty ◽  
Media Reporting ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Media ◽  
The U.S

"In the aftermath of the 2014 Ebola outbreak, media coverage was scrutinized for sensationalism, weakness in explaining scientific uncertainty, dehumanization of patients, and lack of contextualization. The current COVID-19 crisis presents an opportunity to assess whether the media learned its lesson. Results are mixed. Early reporting on the origin of COVID-19 in “wet markets” indicates that the media continues to do poorly with contextualization. On the other hand, stories on mortality and the infectiousness of COVID-19 indicate there has been improvement. The situation remains fluid as COVID-19 threatens to transform into a pandemic at the time of submission. Data from new countries may alter the reported rates of lethality and infectiousness, and media reporting on these changes may or may not be responsible. The explosion of social media, as a medium to promote reporting, could provide bioethicists a tool to direct the public to reliable stories and criticize inaccurate ones. Using a bioethics perspective, this poster will critically evaluate the quality of U.S. and Italian news media’s reporting on the evolving scientific understanding of COVID-19 and its contextualization. The presentation will employ QR technology to provide links to media coverage of COVID-19 from the U.S. and Italian news media. After critically appraising the quality of COVID-19 reporting, this poster will consider if bioethicists: 1) should provide comment to the media on pandemics; 2) should correct reporting for the public and 3) have a duty to publicly criticize sensationalism in the media. "

The Role of the Media in the Process of “Color Revolutions” in the Cis

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 113-127
Author(s):  
Zhao Yonghua
Keyword(s):  
Mass Media ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Industrial Development ◽  
The State ◽  
The Political ◽  
Color Revolutions ◽  
The Media ◽  
Cis Countries ◽  
The U.S

The main cause of "color revolutions" in the Commonwealth (CIS) countries is the political and economic crisis. The media policies, an-ti-government opinion and western media precipitaed the event. This article discusses the importance and influence of media on the pro-gress of "color revolutions" based on patterns of media and political reforms in the state, industrial development of mass media and media strategy of the Western States (as an example the U.S.) in relation to Commonwealth (CIS) countries.

scholarly journals Experience Does not Eliminate Bubbles: Experimental Evidence

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anita Kopanyi-Peuker ◽  
Matthias Weber
Keyword(s):  
Asset Price ◽  
The Other ◽  
Asset Price Bubbles ◽  
Price Bubbles ◽  
Boom And Bust ◽  
Market Experiment ◽  
Fundamental Value ◽  
Boom And Bust Cycles ◽  
Call Market

We study the role of experience in the formation of asset price bubbles. Therefore, we conduct two related experiments. One is a call market experiment in which participants trade assets with each other. The other is a learning-to-forecast experiment in which participants only forecast future prices, while the trade, which is based on these forecasts, is computerized. Each experiment comprises three treatments that vary the amount of information about the fundamental value that participants receive. Each market is repeated three times. In both experiments and in all treatments, we observe sizable bubbles. These bubbles do not disappear with experience. Our findings in the call market experiment stand in contrast to the literature. Our findings in the learning- to-forecast experiment are novel. Interestingly, the shape of the bubbles is different between the two experiments. We observe flat bubbles in the call market experiment and boom-and-bust cycles in the learning-to-forecast experiment.

scholarly journals Waves in Ship Prices and Investment *

2014 ◽  
Vol 130 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-109 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robin Greenwood ◽  
Samuel G. Hanson
Keyword(s):  
Behavioral Model ◽  
High Current ◽  
Shipping Industry ◽  
Bulk Shipping ◽  
Excess Volatility ◽  
Boom And Bust ◽  
Investment Boom ◽  
Industry Investment ◽  
Investment Response ◽  
Boom And Bust Cycles

Abstract We study the link between investment boom and bust cycles and returns on capital in the dry bulk shipping industry. We show that high current ship earnings are associated with high used ship prices and heightened industry investment in new ships, but forecast low future returns. We propose and estimate a behavioral model of industry cycles that can account for the evidence. In our model, firms overextrapolate exogenous demand shocks and partially neglect the endogenous investment response of their competitors. As a result, firms overpay for ships and overinvest in booms and are disappointed by the subsequent low returns. Formal estimation of the model suggests that modest expectational errors can result in dramatic excess volatility in prices and investment.

The Role of Marketing in Ritual Evolution

2017 ◽  
Vol 37 (4) ◽  
pp. 460-478 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samantha N. N. Cross ◽  
Robert L. Harrison ◽  
Mary C. Gilly
Keyword(s):  
Historical Analysis ◽  
Evolutionary Process ◽  
Social Institutions ◽  
Cultural Norms ◽  
Semiotic Analysis ◽  
Shared Meanings ◽  
Symbolic Representations ◽  
The Media ◽  
The U.S

Thanksgiving in the U.S. is a ritual with shared meanings. This research evaluates the meanings of symbolic representations in advertising to understand the role of the media in the construction, maintenance, and evolution of ritual celebration. Thanksgiving advertisements published over a 99-year period are analyzed using a methodological mixture of semiotic analysis, historical analysis and context-driven periodization. The result is a multi-layered understanding of inter-related aspects of advertising history and the role of the media in the evolution of consumption ritual-making. Media are seen as agents for creating and legitimizing cultural norms, adding to our appreciation of normative and cultural-cognitive practices in supporting evolving social institutions. Findings show that marketers create and maintain the norms associated with Thanksgiving celebrations, while reflecting and gradually shifting them, moving us to the next stage in the evolutionary process. This research also highlights how cultural mythmaking strategies are employed and develop into historical brand narratives.

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