scholarly journals Optimal Time-Consistent Government Debt Maturity*

2016 ◽  
Vol 132 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-102 ◽  
Author(s):  
Davide Debortoli ◽  
Ricardo Nunes ◽  
Pierre Yared

Abstract This article develops a model of optimal government debt maturity in which the government cannot issue state-contingent bonds and cannot commit to fiscal policy. If the government can perfectly commit, it fully insulates the economy against government spending shocks by purchasing short-term assets and issuing long-term debt. These positions are quantitatively very large relative to GDP and do not need to be actively managed by the government. Our main result is that these conclusions are not robust to the introduction of lack of commitment. Under lack of commitment, large and tilted debt positions are very expensive to finance ex ante since they exacerbate the problem of lack of commitment ex post. In contrast, a flat maturity structure minimizes the cost of lack of commitment, though it also limits insurance and increases the volatility of fiscal policy distortions. We show that the optimal time-consistent maturity structure is nearly flat because reducing average borrowing costs is quantitatively more important for welfare than reducing fiscal policy volatility. Thus, under lack of commitment, the government actively manages its debt positions and can approximate optimal policy by confining its debt instruments to consols.

2017 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 1166-1204 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cristiano Cantore ◽  
Paul Levine ◽  
Giovanni Melina ◽  
Joseph Pearlman

The initial government debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio and the government's commitment play a pivotal role in determining the welfare-optimal speed of fiscal consolidation in the management of a debt crisis. Under commitment, for low or moderate initial government debt-to-GDP ratios, the optimal consolidation is very slow. A faster pace is optimal when the economy starts from a high level of public debt implying high sovereign risk premia, unless these are suppressed via a bailout by official creditors. Under discretion, the cost of not being able to commit is reflected into a quick consolidation of government debt. Simple monetary–fiscal rules with passive fiscal policy, designed for an environment with “normal shocks,” perform reasonably well in mimicking the Ramsey-optimal response to one-off government debt shocks. When the government can issue also long-term bonds—under commitment—the optimal debt consolidation pace is slower than in the case of short-term bonds only, and entails an increase in the ratio between long- and short-term bonds.


2020 ◽  
Vol 006 (02) ◽  
pp. 325-330
Author(s):  
Nugroho Suryo Bintoro

The growth of central government debt in Indonesia is the subject of endless discussion for both economists and experts in other fields. Although the government uses this debt in order to increase Indonesia's competence through infrastructure development, there are problems in the form of previous accumulated debts. This accumulative debt is known as the concept of “debt stock” which is assessed through Indonesia's fiscal resilience (APBN) to measure the repayment capacity of new debts that will be made in the future. This ability will be seen using long-term data from 1990 to 2016 which is reflected in the variables of central government debt, government spending and revenue so that it is known that Indonesia's central government debt can still be said to be sustainable and the Indonesian government should prioritize productive expenditures in order to increase government revenues.


Author(s):  
Adam Christopher Wood

This chapter first examines what caused the need to regain global stability after the financial crisis. The author provides a brief refresher of how the market crash in 2008, and subsequent Great Recession, was initially fueled while honing in on the allocation of “the fuel” coupled with the repeals of bicentennial-long legislation and the associated dangers of these economic policy changes. Notations from Nobel laureates and interagency economists from the IMF and World Bank aid in identifying the consequences of these policy decisions while simultaneously illustrating the enhanced risk within a variety of markets. Next, the author discusses the current state and relative stability of the financial markets, economic policy, and the risks associated therein. Lastly, this chapter provides recommendations for the future of monetary and fiscal policy, globalization, and what the government (and Wall Street) must consider should they seek to attain long-term financial stability from an international perspective. Monetary and fiscal policy decisions implemented and in-progress by the Federal Reserve are fastidiously examined throughout this chapter.


2005 ◽  
Vol 39 (2-3) ◽  
pp. 473-489
Author(s):  
Bruce Feldthusen

Ontario has changed its no-fault legislation substantially three times in the past decade. These changes have reflected the interest group lobbying of the insurance industry and the practising bar. However, the main and explicit motivation, especially for the latest revision, has been the government's desire to regulate rates. With the Automobile Insurance Rate Stability Act the government appears to have struck a very successful compromise. The lawyers have been allowed an increased, albeit limited, right to sue in tort. The insurers have achieved more certainty, with stricter time and monetary limits on benefits for non-catastrophic injury. Rates have been reduced in part through lower benefit levels, but primarily by throwing the cost of automobile accidents on to other collateral sources. There is, therefore, some subsidization of driving inherent in the legislation. There are also compensation gaps, especially in long term health care, that affect mainly the most vulnerable members of society. Both these shortcomings could and should be easily corrected. So far, it would appear that the politics of rate regulation have generated an improved no-fault automobile accident compensation scheme for Ontario.


2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 69-91 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zulfiqar Ali Memon ◽  
Yan Chen ◽  
Muhammad Zubair Tauni ◽  
Hashmat Ali

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the influence of cash flow volatility on firm’s leverage levels. It also analyzes how cash flow volatility influences the debt maturity structure for the Chinese listed firms. Design/methodology/approach The authors construct the measure for cash flow variability as five-year rolling standard deviation of the cash flow from operations. The authors use generalized linear model approach to determine the effect of volatility on leverage. In addition, the authors design a categorical debt maturity variable and assign categories depending upon firm’s usage of debt at various maturity levels. The authors apply Ordered Probit regression to analyze how volatility affects firm’s debt maturity structure. The authors lag volatility and other independent variables in the estimation models so as to eliminate any possible endogeneity problems. Finally, the authors execute various techniques for verifying the robustness of the main findings. Findings The authors provide evidence that higher volatility of cash flows results in lower leverage levels, while the sub-sampling analysis reveals that there is no such inverse association in the case of Chinese state-owned enterprises. The authors also provide novel findings that irrespective of the ownership structure, firms facing high volatility choose debt of relatively shorter maturities and vice versa. Overall, a rise of one standard deviation in volatility causes 8.89 percent reduction in long-term market leverage ratio and 26.62 percent reduction in the likelihood of issuing debentures or long-term notes. Research limitations/implications This study advocates that cash flow volatility is an essential factor for determining both the debt levels and firm’s term-to-maturity structure. The findings of this study can be helpful for the financial managers in maintaining optimal leverage and debt maturity structure, for lenders in reducing their risk of non-performing loans and for investors in their decision-making process. Originality/value Existing empirical literature regarding the influence of variability of cash flows on leverage and debt maturity structure is inconclusive. Moreover, prior research studies mainly focus only on the developed countries. No previous comprehensive study exists so far for Chinese firms in this regard. This paper endeavors to fulfill this research gap by furnishing novel findings in the context of atypical and distinctive institutional setup of Chinese firms.


10.1068/c0063 ◽  
2002 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 251-262 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Chisholm

When the structure of local government in Great Britain was reorganised during the 1990s, considerable emphasis was placed by the government on the financial savings which would accrue to offset the costs incurred in making the changes. Previous work examined these expectations and found clear evidence that the ex ante estimates of transition costs given to the Westminster parliament were serious underestimates, and that the expected savings had not, at that time, materialised. This work was done at a time when it was known that some of the official data on transition costs would not be complete until after the close of the 2000/01 financial year. The author's primary purpose is to place on record what may be regarded as the final estimates of the transition costs in England, Scotland, and Wales. In addition, comparisons between the ex ante estimates of the costs of structural change and the ex post evidence concerning actual costs are updated. The discrepancy between these is such as to confirm the need for some form of independent scrutiny of new legislation at the time when it is being considered in parliament, to ensure that decisions are taken in the light of realistic assessments of the costs and benefits of proposed enactments.


Author(s):  
Staffan Lindskog ◽  
Rolf Sjo¨blom

On November 1st 2008, a new ordinance came into force in Sweden. It extends the implementation of nuclear liability to all nuclear facilities and companies, regardless of size. The Government has authorized the Swedish Radiation Safety Authority (SSM) to issue further regulation as warranted and appropriate, and commissioned the same Authority to oversee the implementation. Consequently, SSM is presently conducting research in order to establish a basis for the implementation of the ordinance to smaller facilities and enterprises. The goal is to enable finance to be assured in an efficient manner so that any burden on the companies is as small as possible. Thus, “functional requirements” are identified, and used as a basis for various investigations. The aspects include technical and cost calculation prerequisites, as well as various domains of law: the environmental code, radiation and nuclear safety, financial reporting, and criminal law. It is found that the basis for the differentiation among the facility operators and owners should be the cost and the associated uncertainty. Thus, a cost calculation will have to be carried out by all. It should be based on available standards and guidance documents. It is found that this is a requirement that already exists elsewhere in the legislation, and thus no additional burden is imposed on the companies. It is found that segregated funds is the preferred option for long-term liabilities. Securities are suitable for short-term liabilities provided that the economy of the company in question is sound. Securities might also be used for long-term liabilities to cover uncertainty. It is proposed that a de minimis limit of at least kSEK 25 (about k€ 2, 4 and k$ 3, 4) is used. An important reason for this is that lower limits might be incompatible with the rules for financial reporting. It is also proposed that securities might be used also for long-term commitments if the total environmental liability does not exceed 1,00 MSEK (about k€ 96 and k$ 135). It is found that the “general advice” that must be used by smaller companies lacks proper instructions on how to account for environmental liability whilst at the same time it prohibits the use of e g the international reporting standards IFRS/IAS. It is also found that the “general advice” prohibits distribution of costs for research and development over time. This might be incompatible with a fund system where considerable research may be necessary at the early stages of the work and often many years before the actual decommissioning is to take place. The rules in the penal code require that an annual report presents an “essentially correct financial situation”. One of the interpretations to this statement is that a deviance of at most 30% might be tolerated. Although previous work has indicated that the error in cost estimates need not be higher than about 15%, even for research facilities, concealed cost raisers may from time to time lead to much larger errors, even when best practices are being used. It is therefore essential that decommissioning planning and cost predictions are made in accordance with state of the art, and that the estimating methods as well as the results are properly documented.


2010 ◽  
Vol 214 ◽  
pp. F61-F66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Simon Kirby

In June the Coalition Government produced a budget that aimed to reduce the government deficit quickly. The plan was based mainly on cuts in current expenditure and reductions in transfers to individuals. There are four possible reasons for reducing the deficit, and all have been used to justify the policy. The first reason might be that the cost of borrowing is currently too high, and the second could be that if deficits persist the markets could lose confidence and the cost of borrowing would rise. The third reason might be that we have to reduce the debt stock in order that we prepare for the next crisis, whilst the fourth, and perhaps most persuasive in the long run, is that it is unfair to borrow so much and therefore reduce the consumption of future generations. If either of the first two had merit there would be a case for swift consolidation, whilst if the third or fourth predominate, we should not be in any rush to act until output is nearer full capacity.


2014 ◽  
Vol 49 (4) ◽  
pp. 817-842 ◽  
Author(s):  
Radhakrishnan Gopalan ◽  
Fenghua Song ◽  
Vijay Yerramilli

AbstractWe examine whether a firm’s debt maturity structure affects its credit quality. Consistent with theory, we find that firms with greater exposure to rollover risk (measured by the amount of long-term debt payable within a year relative to assets) have lower credit quality; long-term bonds issued by those firms trade at higher yield spreads, indicating that bond market investors are cognizant of rollover risk arising from a firm’s debt maturity structure. These effects are stronger among firms with a speculative-grade rating and declining profitability, and during recessions.


Ekonomista ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maciej WYSOCKI ◽  
Cezary WÓJCIK

In 2016–2019 Poland experienced a major social and fiscal policy shift: new government decreased the statutory retirement age and launched several new social programs, including the sweeping Family 500+ program under which social expenditure on family and children support increased suddenly from 1.5% to nearly 3% of GDP. Moreover, VAT gap reduction policies have been implemented swiftly. The new policy move became highly controversial. Many economists argued that overall it would lead to a significant deterioration of long-term fiscal sustainability. The government argued in turn that the new program was well financed by a complementary policy of VAT gap reduction and saw no risk to country’s fiscal sustainability. This paper provides one of the first evidence of the adverse effect of the policy shift on long-term fiscal sustainability. The analysis reveals that fiscal sustainability parameters have deteriorated significantly after 2016. Overall, the estimations presented in the paper show that in the period of 2016–2019 fiscal sustainability parameters may have been the lowest since Poland joined the EU in 2004. While these results should be treated with caution as they draw on very recent time series, the deterioration of Poland’s fiscal sustainability raises a pertinent policy question related to country’s capacity to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic, in particular in terms of the ability to use standard and non-standard fiscal policy instruments and monetary policy tools in response to the shock.


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