Individual-based eco-evolutionary models for understanding adaptation in changing seas

As climate change threatens species' persistence, predicting the potential for species to adapt to rapidly changing environments is imperative for the development of effective conservation strategies. Eco-evolutionary individual-based models (IBMs) can be useful tools for achieving this objective. We performed a literature review to identify studies that apply these tools in marine systems. Our survey suggested that this is an emerging area of research fuelled in part by developments in modelling frameworks that allow simulation of increasingly complex ecological, genetic and demographic processes. The studies we identified illustrate the promise of this approach and advance our understanding of the capacity for adaptation to outpace climate change. These studies also identify limitations of current models and opportunities for further development. We discuss three main topics that emerged across studies: (i) effects of genetic architecture and non-genetic responses on adaptive potential; (ii) capacity for gene flow to facilitate rapid adaptation; and (iii) impacts of multiple stressors on persistence. Finally, we demonstrate the approach using simple simulations and provide a framework for users to explore eco-evolutionary IBMs as tools for understanding adaptation in changing seas.

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A Decision Framework for Coastal Infrastructure to Optimize Biotic Resistance and Resilience in a Changing Climate

BioScience ◽

10.1093/biosci/biz092 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 69 (10) ◽

pp. 833-843 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Mariana Mayer-Pinto ◽

Katherine A Dafforn ◽

Emma L Johnston

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Biotic Resistance ◽

Spatial Scales ◽

Ecological Theory ◽

Conservation Strategies ◽

Practical Application ◽

Great Opportunity ◽

Marine Systems ◽

Global Environmental ◽

Ecological Theories

Abstract Coastal ecosystems are under growing pressure from human activities such as pollution and climate change. Although the rapidly growing numbers of humans living in coastal areas is a large part of the problem, there is great opportunity to improve the resistance and resilience of biotic communities via creative changes to the engineering design of built infrastructure. Here, we apply ecological theories to create a framework for adaptive building in marine systems that can be applied by managers worldwide. We explain how climate effects could be mitigated across different spatial scales with both physical and biological interventions. This requires an approach based on ecological theory that incorporates our understanding of how systems withstand (resistance) or recover (resilience) from impacts and takes into account future local and global environmental conditions. By translating ecological theory into practical application, we propose a framework for the choice and design of coastal infrastructure that can underpin effective, forward-looking conservation strategies.

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Precipitation and vegetation shape patterns of genomic and craniometric variation in the central African rodent Praomys misonnei

Proceedings of The Royal Society B Biological Sciences ◽

10.1098/rspb.2020.0449 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 287 (1930) ◽

pp. 20200449

Author(s):

Katy Morgan ◽

Jean-François Mboumba ◽

Stephan Ntie ◽

Patrick Mickala ◽

Courtney A. Miller ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Genomic Variation ◽

Conservation Strategies ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Evolutionary Potential ◽

Standing Variation ◽

Craniometric Variation ◽

Ecological Transition ◽

Effective Conservation

Predicting species' capacity to respond to climate change is an essential first step in developing effective conservation strategies. However, conservation prioritization schemes rarely take evolutionary potential into account. Ecotones provide important opportunities for diversifying selection and may thus constitute reservoirs of standing variation, increasing the capacity for future adaptation. Here, we map patterns of environmentally associated genomic and craniometric variation in the central African rodent Praomys misonnei to identify areas with the greatest turnover in genomic composition. We also project patterns of environmentally associated genomic variation under future climate change scenarios to determine where populations may be under the greatest pressure to adapt. While precipitation gradients influence both genomic and craniometric variation, vegetation structure is also an important determinant of craniometric variation. Areas of elevated environmentally associated genomic and craniometric variation overlap with zones of rapid ecological transition underlining their importance as reservoirs of evolutionary potential. We also find that populations in the Sanaga river basin, central Cameroon and coastal Gabon are likely to be under the greatest pressure from climate change. Lastly, we make specific conservation recommendations on how to protect zones of high evolutionary potential and identify areas where populations may be the most susceptible to climate change.

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Climate Change And Glacial Retreat In The Himalaya: Implications For Soil And Plant Development

Kathmandu University Journal of Science Engineering and Technology ◽

10.3126/kuset.v8i1.6055 ◽

1970 ◽

Vol 8 (1) ◽

pp. 153-163 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

Janita Gurung ◽

Roshan M Bajracharya

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Current Knowledge ◽

Soil Development ◽

Plant Succession ◽

Conservation Strategies ◽

Limited Information ◽

Glacial Retreat ◽

Himalayan Glaciers ◽

The Himalaya ◽

Effective Conservation

While there is abundant literature on Himalayan glaciations and glaciers, including glacier retreat, there is limited information on soil development and plant succession in deglaciated Himalayan terrain. This paper reviews current knowledge on soil development and plant succession in deglaciated environments around the world. Implications of plant succession in deglaciated environments, particularly as Himalayan glaciers shrink due to climate change, are discussed. Understanding the effects of climate change on Himalayan soil and vegetation dynamics is crucial for assessing impacts on mountain livelihoods, as well as for implementing effective conservation strategies. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/kuset.v8i1.6055 KUSET 2012; 8(1): 153-163

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Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models

Biology Letters ◽

10.1098/rsbl.2008.0049 ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 4 (5) ◽

pp. 560-563 ◽

Cited By ~ 416

Author(s):

David A Keith ◽

H. Resit Akçakaya ◽

Wilfried Thuiller ◽

Guy F Midgley ◽

Richard G Pearson ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

South African ◽

Species Interactions ◽

Hot Spot ◽

Population Models ◽

Conservation Strategies ◽

Stochastic Population Models ◽

Complex Interactions ◽

Mechanistic Approach ◽

Effective Conservation

Species responses to climate change may be influenced by changes in available habitat, as well as population processes, species interactions and interactions between demographic and landscape dynamics. Current methods for assessing these responses fail to provide an integrated view of these influences because they deal with habitat change or population dynamics, but rarely both. In this study, we linked a time series of habitat suitability models with spatially explicit stochastic population models to explore factors that influence the viability of plant species populations under stable and changing climate scenarios in South African fynbos, a global biodiversity hot spot. Results indicate that complex interactions between life history, disturbance regime and distribution pattern mediate species extinction risks under climate change. Our novel mechanistic approach allows more complete and direct appraisal of future biotic responses than do static bioclimatic habitat modelling approaches, and will ultimately support development of more effective conservation strategies to mitigate biodiversity losses due to climate change.

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Avenues of reef-building coral acclimatization in response to rapid environmental change

Journal of Experimental Biology ◽

10.1242/jeb.239319 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 224 (Suppl 1) ◽

pp. jeb239319

Author(s):

Hollie M. Putnam

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Multiple Stressors ◽

Marine Organism ◽

Epigenetic Inheritance ◽

Change Factors ◽

Increasing Temperature ◽

Further Development ◽

Organismal Fitness ◽

Rapid Environmental Change ◽

Organism Interactions

ABSTRACTThe swiftly changing climate presents a challenge to organismal fitness by creating a mismatch between the current environment and phenotypes adapted to historic conditions. Acclimatory mechanisms may be especially crucial for sessile benthic marine taxa, such as reef-building corals, where climate change factors including ocean acidification and increasing temperature elicit strong negative physiological responses such as bleaching, disease and mortality. Here, within the context of multiple stressors threatening marine organisms, I describe the wealth of metaorganism response mechanisms to rapid ocean change and the ontogenetic shifts in organism interactions with the environment that can generate plasticity. I then highlight the need to consider the interactions of rapid and evolutionary responses in an adaptive (epi)genetic continuum. Building on the definitions of these mechanisms and continuum, I also present how the interplay of the microbiome, epigenetics and parental effects creates additional avenues for rapid acclimatization. To consider under what conditions epigenetic inheritance has a more substantial role, I propose investigation into the offset of timing of gametogenesis leading to different environmental integration times between eggs and sperm and the consequences of this for gamete epigenetic compatibility. Collectively, non-genetic, yet heritable phenotypic plasticity will have significant ecological and evolutionary implications for sessile marine organism persistence under rapid climate change. As such, reef-building corals present ideal and time-sensitive models for further development of our understanding of adaptive feedback loops in a multi-player (epi)genetic continuum.

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