scholarly journals Mitigation gambles: uncertainty, urgency and the last gamble possible

2018 ◽  
Vol 376 (2119) ◽  
pp. 20170105 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henry Shue
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Poverty Alleviation ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Future Generations ◽  
Tipping Points ◽  
Social Challenges ◽  
Political Struggles ◽  
Negative Emissions ◽  
Warming World

A rejection by current generations of more ambitious mitigation of carbon emissions inflicts on future generations inherently objectionable risks about which they have no choice. Any gains through savings from less ambitious mitigation, which are relatively minor, would accrue to current generations, and all losses, which are relatively major, would fall on future generations. This mitigation gamble is especially unjustifiable because it imposes a risk of unlimited losses until carbon emissions cease. Ultimate physical collapses remain possible. Much more ominous is prior social collapse from political struggles over conflicting responses to threatened physical collapse. The two most plausible objections to the thesis that less ambitious mitigation is unjustifiable rely, respectively, on the claim that negative emissions will allow a later recovery from a temporary overshoot in emissions and on the claim that ambitious mitigation is incompatible with poverty alleviation that depends on inexpensive fossil fuels. Neither objection stands up. Reliance on negative emissions later instead of ambitious mitigation now permits the passing of tipping points for irreversible change meanwhile, and non-carbon energy is rapidly becoming price competitive in developing countries like India that are committed to poverty alleviation. This article is part of the themed issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels’.

scholarly journals The myriad challenges of the Paris Agreement

2018 ◽  
Vol 376 (2119) ◽  
pp. 20180066 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dann Mitchell ◽  
Myles R. Allen ◽  
Jim W. Hall ◽  
Benito Muller ◽  
Lavanya Rajamani ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Original Research ◽  
Theme Issue ◽  
25Th Anniversary ◽  
Social Challenges ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Science Community ◽  
Warming World ◽  
The University

The much awaited and intensely negotiated Paris Agreement was adopted on 12 December 2015 by the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The agreement set out a more ambitious long-term temperature goal than many had anticipated, implying more stringent emissions reductions that have been under-explored by the research community. By its very nature a multidisciplinary challenge, filling the knowledge gap requires not only climate scientists, but the whole Earth system science community, as well as economists, engineers, lawyers, philosophers, politicians, emergency planners and others to step up. To kick start cross-disciplinary discussions, the University of Oxford's Environmental Change Institute focused its 25th anniversary conference upon meeting the challenges of the Paris Agreement for science and society. This theme issue consists of review papers, opinion pieces and original research from some of the presentations within that meeting, covering a wide range of issues underpinning the Paris Agreement. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

scholarly journals Can ‘loss and damage’ carry the load?

2018 ◽  
Vol 376 (2119) ◽  
pp. 20170070 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert R. M. Verchick
Keyword(s):  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Residual Risk ◽  
Social Challenges ◽  
Carbon Reduction ◽  
Global Consensus ◽  
Loss And Damage ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Warming World

Even assuming a heroic rush towards carbon reduction and adaptation, some regions of the world will be hammered hard by climate impacts. Thus, a global consensus now sees the need for a supplemental plan to deal with the kind of harms that cannot be avoided—what Parties call ‘loss and damage’. For a loss-and-damage plan to work, it must be capable of carrying the load, the load being whatever minimal standards that morality and political consensus require. But if residual risk climbs too high, it will fall short of even the most basic expectations. The Paris Agreement calls for holding the rise in global average temperature to ‘well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels’, while working to limit the increase to 1.5°C. How much difference is in that half-degree? From the point of view of residual risk, quite a lot. According to a 2016 study published by the European Geosciences Union, a jump from 1.5°C to 2°C could produce outsize impacts, particularly in tropical latitudes. That difference could mark the line between a plan that is politically and morally defensible and one that is not. At the very least, the difference is enough to inform the design and expectations of any future plan. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels’.

The legal character and operational relevance of the Paris Agreement's temperature goal

2018 ◽  
Vol 376 (2119) ◽  
pp. 20160458 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lavanya Rajamani ◽  
Jacob Werksman
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Theme Issue ◽  
Social Challenges ◽  
Common But Differentiated Responsibilities ◽  
Political Implications ◽  
Collective Performance ◽  
Warming World ◽  
Legal Character

This article assesses the legal character and operational relevance of the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C temperature goal. This article begins with a textual analysis of the 1.5°C goal. It considers whether the goal creates individual or collective obligations for Parties, and whether it is sufficiently specific to enable the tracking of individual or collective performance. Next, it assesses the operational relevance of the 1.5°C temperature goal, by considering the role it will play in the Paris Agreement's institutions and procedures. To the extent that the goal plays a role, and implies global limits on greenhouse gas emissions, this article observes that it could have implications for the sharing of the effort between Parties. Thus, this article considers the relevance of equity and the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in the light of different national circumstances, to understanding how the 1.5°C goal could be reached. In this context, this article explores whether the 1.5°C goal could play a role in the Paris Agreement's ‘ambition cycle’. Finally, this article asks whether there are any legal or political implications, individually or collectively under the Paris Agreement, should the Parties fail to achieve the 1.5°C goal. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels’.

scholarly journals Negative emissions technologies and carbon capture and storage to achieve the Paris Agreement commitments

2018 ◽  
Vol 376 (2119) ◽  
pp. 20160447 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Stuart Haszeldine ◽  
Stephanie Flude ◽  
Gareth Johnson ◽  
Vivian Scott
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Capture ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Carbon Capture And Storage ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Emission Rates ◽  
Negative Emissions ◽  
Warming World ◽  
And Storage

How will the global atmosphere and climate be protected? Achieving net-zero CO 2 emissions will require carbon capture and storage (CCS) to reduce current GHG emission rates, and negative emissions technology (NET) to recapture previously emitted greenhouse gases. Delivering NET requires radical cost and regulatory innovation to impact on climate mitigation. Present NET exemplars are few, are at small-scale and not deployable within a decade, with the exception of rock weathering, or direct injection of CO 2 into selected ocean water masses. To keep warming less than 2°C, bioenergy with CCS (BECCS) has been modelled but does not yet exist at industrial scale. CCS already exists in many forms and at low cost. However, CCS has no political drivers to enforce its deployment. We make a new analysis of all global CCS projects and model the build rate out to 2050, deducing this is 100 times too slow. Our projection to 2050 captures just 700 Mt CO 2  yr −1 , not the minimum 6000 Mt CO 2  yr −1 required to meet the 2°C target. Hence new policies are needed to incentivize commercial CCS. A first urgent action for all countries is to commercially assess their CO 2 storage. A second simple action is to assign a Certificate of CO 2 Storage onto producers of fossil carbon, mandating a progressively increasing proportion of CO 2 to be stored. No CCS means no 2°C. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

scholarly journals Implications of possible interpretations of ‘greenhouse gas balance’ in the Paris Agreement

2018 ◽  
Vol 376 (2119) ◽  
pp. 20160445 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Fuglestvedt ◽  
J. Rogelj ◽  
R. J. Millar ◽  
M. Allen ◽  
O. Boucher ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Climate Forcing ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Balance ◽  
Social Challenges ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Net Zero ◽  
Warming World ◽  
Gas Balance

The main goal of the Paris Agreement as stated in Article 2 is ‘holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C’. Article 4 points to this long-term goal and the need to achieve ‘balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases'. This statement on ‘greenhouse gas balance’ is subject to interpretation, and clarifications are needed to make it operational for national and international climate policies. We study possible interpretations from a scientific perspective and analyse their climatic implications. We clarify how the implications for individual gases depend on the metrics used to relate them. We show that the way in which balance is interpreted, achieved and maintained influences temperature outcomes. Achieving and maintaining net-zero CO 2 -equivalent emissions conventionally calculated using GWP 100 (100-year global warming potential) and including substantial positive contributions from short-lived climate-forcing agents such as methane would result in a sustained decline in global temperature. A modified approach to the use of GWP 100 (that equates constant emissions of short-lived climate forcers with zero sustained emission of CO 2 ) results in global temperatures remaining approximately constant once net-zero CO 2 -equivalent emissions are achieved and maintained. Our paper provides policymakers with an overview of issues and choices that are important to determine which approach is most appropriate in the context of the Paris Agreement. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

Subsistence protection and mitigation ambition: Necessities, economic and climatic

2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 251-262 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henry Shue
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Market Mechanisms ◽  
Reference Framework ◽  
Control Climate ◽  
Normative Evaluation ◽  
Political Struggles ◽  
Nationally Determined Contributions

The distinction between subsistence emissions and luxury emissions was originally devised in 1992 to guard people so poor as to be able to afford only fossil fuels from being priced out of energy by market mechanisms like cap-and-trade that were proposed to assist with limiting climate change. Non-carbon energy can now be made as affordable and accessible as fossil fuel, but tensions remain between measures to support sustainable development and measures to control climate change. Consequently, the distinction between subsistence energy and luxury energy continues to be surprisingly relevant to current international political struggles. The most fully justified method for normative assessment of Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement, the Climate Equity Reference Framework, presupposes the distinction. Normative evaluation of the choice between maximally ambitious ratcheting-up of Nationally Determined Contributions in the immediate future and lazy reliance upon hoped-for carbon dioxide removal in future decades depends on it.

scholarly journals Climate and development: enhancing impact through stronger linkages in the implementation of the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

2018 ◽  
Vol 376 (2119) ◽  
pp. 20160444 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luis Gomez-Echeverri
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Sustainable Development Goals ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Sustainable Development ◽  
Social Challenges ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Development Goals ◽  
Warming World

One of the greatest achievements in the global negotiations of 2015 that delivered the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development or Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Agreement on climate change is that, for the first time, the linkages between climate and development were enshrined in each of the documents. This was done in recognition that climate change and development need to be addressed together in order not only to avoid harmful trade-offs and high costs, particularly for poorer countries, but also to exploit the benefits that come from strengthening these linkages. This review presents some of the latest data that argue for stronger linkages as well as the challenges of implementation which are not only politically and economically related but also include issues such as knowledge gaps, finance and governance. Finally, the review also presents a glimpse at the pathways that will be required to reach the ambitious global temperature targets of the Paris Agreement of less than 2°C above pre-industrial levels with efforts to limit temperature rise even further to 1.5°C. This provides the context for some conclusions and recommendations for policy-makers, including on methodologies for assessing linkages and leveraging them for greater benefit. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels’.

Has the Sovereign Wealth Fund of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ) Been Able to Promote Economic Diversification?

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vahid Yücesoy
Keyword(s):  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Dutch Disease ◽  
Future Generations ◽  
Direct Control ◽  
Economic Diversification ◽  
Sovereign Wealth Funds ◽  
Sovereign Wealth Fund ◽  
Rentier States ◽  
Oil Revenues ◽  
Rich Countries

Oil-rich countries have oftentimes been confronted with the challenge of diversifying their economies away from oil dependence given the exhaustible nature of these fossil fuels. Investing in sovereign wealth funds has been one of the most ubiquitous ways of preparing for the post-oil period. Investing in sovereign wealth funds rather than directly injecting the oil revenues in the economy not only precludes the outbreak of the Dutch Disease (which is known for giving rise to an exchange rate appreciation, crowding out non-oil industries and keeping the economy reliant on oil), but it also saves for future generations. Yet, in the case of Azerbaijan, the Sovereign Wealth Fund of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ), founded in 1999, has only increased this reliance on oil. Using the rentier states theoretical framework, this paper will argue that the direct control over SOFAZ exercised by the president and the lack of consultation with the NGOs have made corruption easier, making the task of economic diversification more difficult. This has been possible because through corruption the president has often resorted to oil money to buy peace rather than invest it in economic diversification. As a result, since the foundation of SOFAZ, the country is more reliant, not less, on oil.   Full text available at: https://doi.org/10.22215/rera.v8i1.223  

Effective Altruism

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Animal Welfare ◽  
Poverty Alleviation ◽  
Future Generations ◽  
Global Poverty ◽  
Global Community ◽  
Helping Others ◽  
The World ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Effective Altruism

The effective altruism movement consists of a growing global community of people who organize significant parts of their lives around two key ideas, represented in its name. Altruism: If we use a significant portion of the resources in our possession—whether money, time, or talents—with a view to helping others, we can improve the world considerably. Effectiveness: When we do put such resources to altruistic use, it is crucial to focus on how much good this or that intervention is reasonably expected to do per unit of resource expended (for example, per dollar donated). While global poverty is a widely used case study in introducing and motivating effective altruism, if the ultimate aim is to do the most good one can with the resources expended, it is far from obvious that global poverty alleviation is highest priority cause area. In addition to ranking possible poverty-alleviation interventions against one another, we can also try to rank interventions aimed at very different types of outcome against one another. This includes, for example, interventions focusing on animal welfare or future generations. The scale and organization of the effective altruism movement encourage careful dialogue on questions that have perhaps long been there, throwing them into new and sharper relief, and giving rise to previously unnoticed questions. In the present volume, the first of its kind, a group of internationally recognized philosophers, economists, and political theorists contribute in-depth explorations of issues that arise once one takes seriously the twin ideas of altruistic commitment and effectiveness.

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