scholarly journals Can ‘loss and damage’ carry the load?

2018 ◽  
Vol 376 (2119) ◽  
pp. 20170070 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert R. M. Verchick
Keyword(s):  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Residual Risk ◽  
Social Challenges ◽  
Carbon Reduction ◽  
Global Consensus ◽  
Loss And Damage ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Warming World

Even assuming a heroic rush towards carbon reduction and adaptation, some regions of the world will be hammered hard by climate impacts. Thus, a global consensus now sees the need for a supplemental plan to deal with the kind of harms that cannot be avoided—what Parties call ‘loss and damage’. For a loss-and-damage plan to work, it must be capable of carrying the load, the load being whatever minimal standards that morality and political consensus require. But if residual risk climbs too high, it will fall short of even the most basic expectations. The Paris Agreement calls for holding the rise in global average temperature to ‘well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels’, while working to limit the increase to 1.5°C. How much difference is in that half-degree? From the point of view of residual risk, quite a lot. According to a 2016 study published by the European Geosciences Union, a jump from 1.5°C to 2°C could produce outsize impacts, particularly in tropical latitudes. That difference could mark the line between a plan that is politically and morally defensible and one that is not. At the very least, the difference is enough to inform the design and expectations of any future plan. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels’.

scholarly journals Building equity in: strategies for integrating equity into modelling for a 1.5°C world

2018 ◽  
Vol 376 (2119) ◽  
pp. 20160461 ◽  
Author(s):  
Klinsky Sonja ◽  
Winkler Harald
Keyword(s):  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Policy Action ◽  
Social Challenges ◽  
Vulnerable Communities ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Political Debates ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Loss And Damage ◽  
Warming World ◽  
Current Modelling

Emission pathways consistent with limiting temperature increase to 1.5°C raise pressing questions from an equity perspective. These pathways would limit impacts and benefit vulnerable communities but also present trade-offs that could increase inequality. Meanwhile, rapid mitigation could exacerbate political debates in which equity has played a central role. In this paper, we first develop a set of elements we suggest are essential for evaluating the equity implications of policy actions consistent with 1.5°C. These elements include (i) assess climate impacts, adaptation, loss and damage; (ii) be sensitive to context; (iii) compare costs of mitigation and adaptation policy action; (iv) incorporate human development and poverty; (v) integrate inequality dynamics; and (vi) be clear about normative assumptions and responsive to users. We then assess the ability of current modelling practices to address each element, focusing on global integrated assessment models augmented by national modelling and scenarios. We find current practices face serious limitations across all six dimensions although the severity of these varies. Finally, based on our assessment we identify strategies that may be best suited for enabling us to generate insights into each of the six elements in the context of assessing pathways for a 1.5°C world. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

scholarly journals The myriad challenges of the Paris Agreement

2018 ◽  
Vol 376 (2119) ◽  
pp. 20180066 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dann Mitchell ◽  
Myles R. Allen ◽  
Jim W. Hall ◽  
Benito Muller ◽  
Lavanya Rajamani ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Original Research ◽  
Theme Issue ◽  
25Th Anniversary ◽  
Social Challenges ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Science Community ◽  
Warming World ◽  
The University

The much awaited and intensely negotiated Paris Agreement was adopted on 12 December 2015 by the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The agreement set out a more ambitious long-term temperature goal than many had anticipated, implying more stringent emissions reductions that have been under-explored by the research community. By its very nature a multidisciplinary challenge, filling the knowledge gap requires not only climate scientists, but the whole Earth system science community, as well as economists, engineers, lawyers, philosophers, politicians, emergency planners and others to step up. To kick start cross-disciplinary discussions, the University of Oxford's Environmental Change Institute focused its 25th anniversary conference upon meeting the challenges of the Paris Agreement for science and society. This theme issue consists of review papers, opinion pieces and original research from some of the presentations within that meeting, covering a wide range of issues underpinning the Paris Agreement. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

The legal character and operational relevance of the Paris Agreement's temperature goal

2018 ◽  
Vol 376 (2119) ◽  
pp. 20160458 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lavanya Rajamani ◽  
Jacob Werksman
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Theme Issue ◽  
Social Challenges ◽  
Common But Differentiated Responsibilities ◽  
Political Implications ◽  
Collective Performance ◽  
Warming World ◽  
Legal Character

This article assesses the legal character and operational relevance of the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C temperature goal. This article begins with a textual analysis of the 1.5°C goal. It considers whether the goal creates individual or collective obligations for Parties, and whether it is sufficiently specific to enable the tracking of individual or collective performance. Next, it assesses the operational relevance of the 1.5°C temperature goal, by considering the role it will play in the Paris Agreement's institutions and procedures. To the extent that the goal plays a role, and implies global limits on greenhouse gas emissions, this article observes that it could have implications for the sharing of the effort between Parties. Thus, this article considers the relevance of equity and the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in the light of different national circumstances, to understanding how the 1.5°C goal could be reached. In this context, this article explores whether the 1.5°C goal could play a role in the Paris Agreement's ‘ambition cycle’. Finally, this article asks whether there are any legal or political implications, individually or collectively under the Paris Agreement, should the Parties fail to achieve the 1.5°C goal. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels’.

scholarly journals Mitigation gambles: uncertainty, urgency and the last gamble possible

2018 ◽  
Vol 376 (2119) ◽  
pp. 20170105 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henry Shue
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Poverty Alleviation ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Future Generations ◽  
Tipping Points ◽  
Social Challenges ◽  
Political Struggles ◽  
Negative Emissions ◽  
Warming World

A rejection by current generations of more ambitious mitigation of carbon emissions inflicts on future generations inherently objectionable risks about which they have no choice. Any gains through savings from less ambitious mitigation, which are relatively minor, would accrue to current generations, and all losses, which are relatively major, would fall on future generations. This mitigation gamble is especially unjustifiable because it imposes a risk of unlimited losses until carbon emissions cease. Ultimate physical collapses remain possible. Much more ominous is prior social collapse from political struggles over conflicting responses to threatened physical collapse. The two most plausible objections to the thesis that less ambitious mitigation is unjustifiable rely, respectively, on the claim that negative emissions will allow a later recovery from a temporary overshoot in emissions and on the claim that ambitious mitigation is incompatible with poverty alleviation that depends on inexpensive fossil fuels. Neither objection stands up. Reliance on negative emissions later instead of ambitious mitigation now permits the passing of tipping points for irreversible change meanwhile, and non-carbon energy is rapidly becoming price competitive in developing countries like India that are committed to poverty alleviation. This article is part of the themed issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels’.

scholarly journals Implications of possible interpretations of ‘greenhouse gas balance’ in the Paris Agreement

2018 ◽  
Vol 376 (2119) ◽  
pp. 20160445 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Fuglestvedt ◽  
J. Rogelj ◽  
R. J. Millar ◽  
M. Allen ◽  
O. Boucher ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Climate Forcing ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Balance ◽  
Social Challenges ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Net Zero ◽  
Warming World ◽  
Gas Balance

The main goal of the Paris Agreement as stated in Article 2 is ‘holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C’. Article 4 points to this long-term goal and the need to achieve ‘balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases'. This statement on ‘greenhouse gas balance’ is subject to interpretation, and clarifications are needed to make it operational for national and international climate policies. We study possible interpretations from a scientific perspective and analyse their climatic implications. We clarify how the implications for individual gases depend on the metrics used to relate them. We show that the way in which balance is interpreted, achieved and maintained influences temperature outcomes. Achieving and maintaining net-zero CO 2 -equivalent emissions conventionally calculated using GWP 100 (100-year global warming potential) and including substantial positive contributions from short-lived climate-forcing agents such as methane would result in a sustained decline in global temperature. A modified approach to the use of GWP 100 (that equates constant emissions of short-lived climate forcers with zero sustained emission of CO 2 ) results in global temperatures remaining approximately constant once net-zero CO 2 -equivalent emissions are achieved and maintained. Our paper provides policymakers with an overview of issues and choices that are important to determine which approach is most appropriate in the context of the Paris Agreement. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

scholarly journals Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming

2018 ◽  
Vol 376 (2119) ◽  
pp. 20160460 ◽  
Author(s):  
Felix Pretis ◽  
Moritz Schwarz ◽  
Kevin Tang ◽  
Karsten Haustein ◽  
Myles R. Allen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
National Income ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Large Set ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Social Challenges ◽  
Empirical Estimates ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Warming World

Empirical evidence suggests that variations in climate affect economic growth across countries over time. However, little is known about the relative impacts of climate change on economic outcomes when global mean surface temperature (GMST) is stabilized at 1.5°C or 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Here we use a new set of climate simulations under 1.5°C and 2°C warming from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project to assess changes in economic growth using empirical estimates of climate impacts in a global panel dataset. Panel estimation results that are robust to outliers and breaks suggest that within-year variability of monthly temperatures and precipitation has little effect on economic growth beyond global nonlinear temperature effects. While expected temperature changes under a GMST increase of 1.5°C lead to proportionally higher warming in the Northern Hemisphere, the projected impact on economic growth is larger in the Tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Accounting for econometric estimation and climate uncertainty, the projected impacts on economic growth of 1.5°C warming are close to indistinguishable from current climate conditions, while 2°C warming suggests statistically lower economic growth for a large set of countries (median projected annual growth up to 2% lower). Level projections of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita exhibit high uncertainties, with median projected global average GDP per capita approximately 5% lower at the end of the century under 2°C warming relative to 1.5°C. The correlation between climate-induced reductions in per capita GDP growth and national income levels is significant at the p  < 0.001 level, with lower-income countries experiencing greater losses, which may increase economic inequality between countries and is relevant to discussions of loss and damage under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

scholarly journals Climate and development: enhancing impact through stronger linkages in the implementation of the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

2018 ◽  
Vol 376 (2119) ◽  
pp. 20160444 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luis Gomez-Echeverri
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Sustainable Development Goals ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Sustainable Development ◽  
Social Challenges ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Development Goals ◽  
Warming World

One of the greatest achievements in the global negotiations of 2015 that delivered the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development or Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Agreement on climate change is that, for the first time, the linkages between climate and development were enshrined in each of the documents. This was done in recognition that climate change and development need to be addressed together in order not only to avoid harmful trade-offs and high costs, particularly for poorer countries, but also to exploit the benefits that come from strengthening these linkages. This review presents some of the latest data that argue for stronger linkages as well as the challenges of implementation which are not only politically and economically related but also include issues such as knowledge gaps, finance and governance. Finally, the review also presents a glimpse at the pathways that will be required to reach the ambitious global temperature targets of the Paris Agreement of less than 2°C above pre-industrial levels with efforts to limit temperature rise even further to 1.5°C. This provides the context for some conclusions and recommendations for policy-makers, including on methodologies for assessing linkages and leveraging them for greater benefit. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels’.

Pleasure as a Sign of Efficacy of Mental Activity

1997 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 226-234 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michel Cabanac ◽  
Chantal Pouliot ◽  
James Everett
Keyword(s):  
Evolutionary Psychology ◽  
Magnitude Estimation ◽  
Mental Activity ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Macintosh Computer ◽  
Science Students ◽  
Cognitive Efficiency ◽  
Sensory Pleasure ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Mental Tasks

Previous work has shown that sensory pleasure is both the motor and the sign of optimal behaviors aimed at physiological ends. From an evolutionary psychology point of view it may be postulated that mental pleasure evolved from sensory pleasure. Accordingly, the present work tested empirically the hypothesis that pleasure signals efficacious mental activity. In Experiment 1, ten subjects played video-golf on a Macintosh computer. After each hole they were invited to rate their pleasure or displeasure on a magnitude estimation scale. Their ratings of pleasure correlated negatively with the difference par minus performance, i.e., the better the performance the greater the pleasure reported. In Experiments 2 and 3, the pleasure of reading poems was correlated with comprehension, both rated by two groups of subjects, science students and arts students. In the majority of science students pleasure was significantly correlated with comprehension. Only one arts student showed this relationship; this result suggests that the proposed relationship between pleasure and cognitive efficiency is not tautological. Globally, the results support the hypothesis that pleasure is aroused by the same mechanisms, and follows the same laws, in physiological and cognitive mental tasks and also leads to the optimization of performance.

COMBINATORIAL POLYNOMIALLY COMPUTABLE CHARACTERISTICS OF SUBSTITUTIONS AND THEIR PROPERTIES

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 34-41
Author(s):  
VLADIMIR NIKONOV ◽  
◽  
ANTON ZOBOV ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Expectation ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Small Range ◽  
Computational Point ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Bijective Function ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Element Base ◽  
Selection Of

The construction and selection of a suitable bijective function, that is, substitution, is now becoming an important applied task, particularly for building block encryption systems. Many articles have suggested using different approaches to determining the quality of substitution, but most of them are highly computationally complex. The solution of this problem will significantly expand the range of methods for constructing and analyzing scheme in information protection systems. The purpose of research is to find easily measurable characteristics of substitutions, allowing to evaluate their quality, and also measures of the proximity of a particular substitutions to a random one, or its distance from it. For this purpose, several characteristics were proposed in this work: difference and polynomial, and their mathematical expectation was found, as well as variance for the difference characteristic. This allows us to make a conclusion about its quality by comparing the result of calculating the characteristic for a particular substitution with the calculated mathematical expectation. From a computational point of view, the thesises of the article are of exceptional interest due to the simplicity of the algorithm for quantifying the quality of bijective function substitutions. By its nature, the operation of calculating the difference characteristic carries out a simple summation of integer terms in a fixed and small range. Such an operation, both in the modern and in the prospective element base, is embedded in the logic of a wide range of functional elements, especially when implementing computational actions in the optical range, or on other carriers related to the field of nanotechnology.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document