scholarly journals How to lift a model for individual behaviour to the population level?

2010 ◽  
Vol 365 (1557) ◽  
pp. 3523-3530 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. Diekmann ◽  
J. A. J. Metz
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Mathematical Theory ◽  
Birth Rate ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Dynamic Energy Budget ◽  
Mathematical Exploration ◽  
History Of ◽  
State Changes ◽  
Numerical Bifurcation

The quick answer to the title question is: by bookkeeping; introduce as p(opulation)-state a measure telling how the individuals are distributed over their common i(ndividual)-state space, and track how the various i-processes change this measure. Unfortunately, this answer leads to a mathematical theory that is technically complicated as well as immature. Alternatively, one may describe a population in terms of the history of the population birth rate together with the history of any environmental variables affecting i-state changes, reproduction and survival. Thus, a population model leads to delay equations. This delay formulation corresponds to a restriction of the p-dynamics to a forward invariant attracting set, so that no information is lost that is relevant for long-term dynamics. For such equations there exists a well-developed theory. In particular, numerical bifurcation tools work essentially the same as for ordinary differential equations. However, the available tools still need considerable adaptation before they can be practically applied to the dynamic energy budget (DEB) model. For the time being we recommend simplifying the i-dynamics before embarking on a systematic mathematical exploration of the associated p-behaviour. The long-term aim is to extend the tools, with the DEB model as a relevant goal post.

scholarly journals Extrapolating toxic effects on individuals to the population level: the role of dynamic energy budgets

2010 ◽  
Vol 365 (1557) ◽  
pp. 3531-3540 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tjalling Jager ◽  
Chris Klok
Keyword(s):  
Population Level ◽  
Toxic Effects ◽  
Explicit Calculation ◽  
Energy Budgets ◽  
Dynamic Energy Budget ◽  
Dendrobaena Octaedra ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Consistent Assessment

The interest of environmental management is in the long-term health of populations and ecosystems. However, toxicity is usually assessed in short-term experiments with individuals. Modelling based on dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory aids the extraction of mechanistic information from the data, which in turn supports educated extrapolation to the population level. To illustrate the use of DEB models in this extrapolation, we analyse a dataset for life cycle toxicity of copper in the earthworm Dendrobaena octaedra . We compare four approaches for the analysis of the toxicity data: no model, a simple DEB model without reserves and maturation (the Kooijman–Metz formulation), a more complex one with static reserves and simplified maturation (as used in the DEBtox software) and a full-scale DEB model (DEB3) with explicit calculation of reserves and maturation. For the population prediction, we compare two simple demographic approaches (discrete time matrix model and continuous time Euler–Lotka equation). In our case, the difference between DEB approaches and population models turned out to be small. However, differences between DEB models increased when extrapolating to more field-relevant conditions. The DEB3 model allows for a completely consistent assessment of toxic effects and therefore greater confidence in extrapolating, but poses greater demands on the available data.

scholarly journals Concussion related deficits in the general population predict impairments in varsity footballers

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clara Alexandra Stafford ◽  
Bobby Stojanoski ◽  
Conor Wild ◽  
Danielle Brewer-Deluce ◽  
Timothy D. Wilson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
General Population ◽  
Inhibitory Control ◽  
Population Level ◽  
American Football ◽  
Cognitive Tasks ◽  
Football Players ◽  
Head Impacts ◽  
Demographic Questionnaire ◽  
History Of

ObjectiveWe investigated the long-term cognitive effects of concussion in 19,261 members of the general population and a cohort of varsity American football players with a history of frequent head impacts, using tests that are known to be sensitive to small changes in performance. MethodsWe asked 19,261 participants to complete a demographic questionnaire and 12 cognitive tests measuring aspects of executive function, including inhibitory control. We compared the performance of those reporting a history of concussion (post-concussion) to those reporting no history of concussion (non-concussed) on the cognitive battery and four non-cognitive variables. We used the results of this population-level study to predict the profile of cognitive performance in varsity American football players, who completed the same cognitive tasks. ResultsPost-concussion and non-concussed participants did not differ on 11 of the 12 cognitive tasks employed. However, on a test of inhibitory control based on the classic Stroop paradigm, post-concussion participants showed accuracy-related impairments specific to the incongruent conditions of the task. Post-concussion participants reported higher levels of anxiety, depression, and trouble concentrating. An entirely independent sample of 74 varsity American football players demonstrated the same pattern of impairment: compared to healthy controls, they scored significantly lower on the test of inhibitory control but were indistinguishable from controls on the 11 other tasks.InterpretationSelf-reported concussion is not associated with long-term general effects on cognitive function. Nevertheless, those who report at least one concussion and those who expose themselves to long-term frequent sport-related head impacts, do have a modest, but statistically robust, deficit of inhibitory control.

Atypical Femoral Fracture in McCune-Albright Syndrome

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 147-152
Author(s):  
Salman Ghaffari ◽  
◽  
Mehran Razavipour ◽  
Parastoo Mohammad Amini ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Femoral Fracture ◽  
Dynamic Compression ◽  
Plate Fixation ◽  
Medullary Canal ◽  
Mccune Albright Syndrome ◽  
Café Au Lait Spots ◽  
History Of ◽  
Albright Syndrome ◽  
Mccune Albright

McCune-Albright Syndrome (MAS) is characterized by endocrinopathies, café-au-lait spots, and fibrous dysplasia. Bisphosphonates are the most prescribed treatment for reducing the pain but their long-term use has been associated with atypical fractures of cortical bones like femur in patients. We present a 23-year-old girl diagnosed with MAS. She had an atypical mid-shaft left femoral fracture that happened during simple walking. She also had a history of long-term use of alendronate. Because of the narrow medullary canal, we used 14 holes hybrid locking plate for the lateral aspect of the thigh to fix the fracture and 5 holes dynamic compression plate (instead of the intramedullary nail) in the anterior surface to double fix it, reducing the probability of device failure. With double plate fixation and discontinuation of alendronate, the complete union was achieved five months after surgery

European Integration

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johann P. Arnason
Keyword(s):  
European Integration ◽  
Eastern European ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Historical Processes ◽  
History Of ◽  
External Conditions ◽  
Eastern European Countries ◽  
Totalitarian Regimes ◽  
The Eu

Different understandings of European integration, its background and present problems are represented in this book, but they share an emphasis on historical processes, geopolitical dynamics and regional diversity. The introduction surveys approaches to the question of European continuities and discontinuities, before going on to an overview of chapters. The following three contributions deal with long-term perspectives, including the question of Europe as a civilisational entity, the civilisational crisis of the twentieth century, marked by wars and totalitarian regimes, and a comparison of the European Union with the Habsburg Empire, with particular emphasis on similar crisis symptoms. The next three chapters discuss various aspects and contexts of the present crisis. Reflections on the Brexit controversy throw light on a longer history of intra-Union rivalry, enduring disputes and changing external conditions. An analysis of efforts to strengthen the EU’s legal and constitutional framework, and of resistances to them, highlights the unfinished agenda of integration. A closer look at the much-disputed Islamic presence in Europe suggests that an interdependent radicalization of Islamism and the European extreme right is a major factor in current political developments. Three concluding chapters adopt specific regional perspectives. Central and Eastern European countries, especially Poland, are following a path that leads to conflicts with dominant orientations of the EU, but this also raises questions about Europe’s future. The record of Scandinavian policies in relation to Europe exemplifies more general problems faced by peripheral regions. Finally, growing dissonances and divergences within the EU may strengthen the case for Eurasian perspectives.

The natural history of pituitary apoplexy: long term follow-up study

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ayesha Shaikh ◽  
Natasha Shrikrishnapalasuriyar ◽  
Giselle Sharaf ◽  
David Price ◽  
Maneesh Udiawar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Natural History ◽  
Pituitary Apoplexy ◽  
Follow Up Study ◽  
Long Term Follow Up ◽  
History Of

1386-P: Long-Term Weight Change after Pregnancy and Type 2 Diabetes Risk in Women with a History of Gestational Diabetes

Diabetes ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 69 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 1386-P
Author(s):  
SYLVIA E. BADON ◽  
FEI XU ◽  
CHARLES QUESENBERRY ◽  
ASSIAMIRA FERRARA ◽  
MONIQUE M. HEDDERSON
Keyword(s):  
Type 2 Diabetes ◽  
Gestational Diabetes ◽  
Weight Change ◽  
Diabetes Risk ◽  
History Of

A New Look at the Asian Fertility Transition (Distinguishedl Lecture)

1996 ◽  
Vol 35 (4I) ◽  
pp. 385-398 ◽  
Author(s):  
John C. Caldwell
Keyword(s):  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Birth Rate ◽  
Fertility Transition ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Asian Women ◽  
Population Replacement ◽  
Planning Meeting ◽  
Annual Birth Rate

The significance of the Asian fertility transition can hardly be overestimated. The relatively sanguine view of population growth expressed at the 1994 International Conference for Population and Development (ICPD) in Cairo was possible only because of the demographic events in Asia over the last 30 years. In 1965 Asian women were still bearing about six children. Even at current rates, today’s young women will give birth to half as many. This measure, namely the average number of live births over a reproductive lifetime, is called the total fertility rate. It has to be above 2— considerably above if mortality is still high—to achieve long-term population replacement. By 1995 East Asia, taken as a whole, exhibited a total fertility rate of 1.9. Elsewhere, Singapore was below long-term replacement, Thailand had just achieved it, and Sri Lanka was only a little above. The role of Asia in the global fertility transition is shown by estimates I made a few years ago for a World Bank Planning Meeting covering the first quarter of a century of the Asian transition [Caldwell (1993), p. 300]. Between 1965 and 1988 the world’s annual birth rate fell by 22 percent. In 1988 there would have been 40 million more births if there had been no decline from 1965 fertility levels. Of that total decline in the world’s births, almost 80 percent had been contributed by Asia, compared with only 10 percent by Latin America, nothing by Africa, and, unexpectedly, 10 percent by the high-income countries of the West. Indeed, 60 percent of the decline was produced by two countries, China and India, even though they constitute only 38 percent of the world’s population. They accounted, between them, for over threequarters of Asia’s fall in births.

Update on the Boundaries of the Curly Birch Range

2020 ◽  
pp. 9-21
Author(s):  
L.V. Vetchinnikova ◽  
◽  
A.F. Titov ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Natural Populations ◽  
Forest Tree ◽  
Published Data ◽  
Population Approach ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
History Of ◽  
Individual Trees ◽  
Karelian Birch

The article reports on the application of the best known principles for mapping natural populations of curly (Karelian) birch Betula pendula Roth var. carelica (Mercklin) Hämet-Ahti – one of the most appealing representatives of the forest tree flora. Relying on the synthesis and analysis of the published data amassed over nearly 100 years and the data from own full-scale studies done in the past few decades almost throughout the area where curly birch has grown naturally, it is concluded that its range outlined in the middle of the 20th century and since then hardly revised is outdated. The key factors and reasons necessitating its revision are specified. Herewith it is suggested that the range is delineated using the population approach, and the key element will be the critical population size below which the population is no longer viable in the long term. This approach implies that the boundaries of the taxon range depend on the boundaries of local populations (rather than the locations of individual trees or small clumps of trees), the size of which should not be lower than the critical value, which is supposed to be around 100–500 trees for curly birch. A schematic map of the curly birch range delineated using this approach is provided. We specially address the problem of determining the minimum population size to secure genetic diversity maintenance. The advantages of the population approach to delineating the distribution range of curly birch with regard to its biological features are highlighted. The authors argue that it enables a more accurate delineation of the range; shows the natural evolutionary history of the taxon (although it is not yet officially recognized as a species) and its range; can be relatively easily updated (e.g. depending on the scope of reintroduction); should be taken into account when working on the strategy of conservation and other actions designed to maintain and regenerate this unique representative of the forest tree flora.

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