scholarly journals Impact of Parameterization of Physical Processes on Simulation of Track and Intensity of Tropical Cyclone Nargis (2008) with WRF-NMM Model

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sujata Pattanayak ◽  
U. C. Mohanty ◽  
Krishna K. Osuri
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
India Meteorological Department ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Cumulus Convection ◽  
Cyclonic Storm ◽  
Parameterization Schemes ◽  
Cyclone Nargis

The present study is carried out to investigate the performance of different cumulus convection, planetary boundary layer, land surface processes, and microphysics parameterization schemes in the simulation of a very severe cyclonic storm (VSCS) Nargis (2008), developed in the central Bay of Bengal on 27 April 2008. For this purpose, the nonhydrostatic mesoscale model (NMM) dynamic core of weather research and forecasting (WRF) system is used. Model-simulated track positions and intensity in terms of minimum central mean sea level pressure (MSLP), maximum surface wind (10 m), and precipitation are verified with observations as provided by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM). The estimated optimum combination is reinvestigated with six different initial conditions of the same case to have better conclusion on the performance of WRF-NMM. A few more diagnostic fields like vertical velocity, vorticity, and heat fluxes are also evaluated. The results indicate that cumulus convection play an important role in the movement of the cyclone, and PBL has a crucial role in the intensification of the storm. The combination of Simplified Arakawa Schubert (SAS) convection, Yonsei University (YSU) PBL, NMM land surface, and Ferrier microphysics parameterization schemes in WRF-NMM give better track and intensity forecast with minimum vector displacement error.

Intercomparison of Mesoscale Model Simulations of the Daytime Valley Wind System

2011 ◽  
Vol 139 (5) ◽  
pp. 1389-1409 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juerg Schmidli ◽  
Brian Billings ◽  
Fotini K. Chow ◽  
Stephan F. J. de Wekker ◽  
James Doyle ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Sensible Heat Flux ◽  
Surface Wind Speed ◽  
Time Shift ◽  
Wind System ◽  
Valley Wind ◽  
The Mean

Three-dimensional simulations of the daytime thermally induced valley wind system for an idealized valley–plain configuration, obtained from nine nonhydrostatic mesoscale models, are compared with special emphasis on the evolution of the along-valley wind. The models use the same initial and lateral boundary conditions, and standard parameterizations for turbulence, radiation, and land surface processes. The evolution of the mean along-valley wind (averaged over the valley cross section) is similar for all models, except for a time shift between individual models of up to 2 h and slight differences in the speed of the evolution. The analysis suggests that these differences are primarily due to differences in the simulated surface energy balance such as the dependence of the sensible heat flux on surface wind speed. Additional sensitivity experiments indicate that the evolution of the mean along-valley flow is largely independent of the choice of the dynamical core and of the turbulence parameterization scheme. The latter does, however, have a significant influence on the vertical structure of the boundary layer and of the along-valley wind. Thus, this ideal case may be useful for testing and evaluation of mesoscale numerical models with respect to land surface–atmosphere interactions and turbulence parameterizations.

scholarly journals The Impact of Variational Assimilation of SSM/I and QuikSCAT Satellite Observations on the Numerical Simulation of Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones

2008 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 460-476 ◽  
Author(s):  
Randhir Singh ◽  
P. K. Pal ◽  
C. M. Kishtawal ◽  
P. C. Joshi
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Bay Of Bengal ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Quikscat Winds

Abstract In this study, the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) with three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) is utilized to investigate the influence of Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) and Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) observations on the prediction of an Indian Ocean tropical cyclone. The 3DVAR sensitivity runs were conducted separately with QuikSCAT wind vectors, SSM/I wind speeds, and total precipitable water (TPW) to investigate their individual impact on cyclone intensity and track. The Orissa supercyclone over the Bay of Bengal during October 1999 was used for simulation and assimilation experiments. Assimilation of the QuikSCAT wind vector improves the initial position of the cyclone’s center with a position error of 33 km, which was 163 km in the background analysis. Incorporation of QuikSCAT winds was found to increase the air–sea heat fluxes over the cyclonic region, which resulted in the improved simulated intensity when compared with the simulation made without QuikSCAT winds in the initial conditions. The cyclone track improved significantly with assimilation of QuikSCAT wind vectors. The track improvement resulted from relocation of the initial cyclonic vortex after assimilation of QuikSCAT wind vectors. Like QuikSCAT, assimilation of SSM/I wind speeds strengthened the cyclonic circulation in the initial conditions. This increase in the low-level wind speeds enhanced the air–sea exchange processes and improved the simulated intensity of the cyclone. The lack of information about the wind direction from SSM/I prevented it from making much of an impact on track prediction. As compared to the first guess, assimilation of the SSM/I TPW shows a moistening of the lower troposphere over most of the Bay of Bengal except over the central region of the cyclone, where the assimilation of SSM/I TPW reduces the lower-tropospheric moisture. This decrease of moisture in the TPW assimilation experiment resulted in a weak cyclone intensity.

scholarly journals The Effects of Complex Terrain on Severe Landfalling Tropical Cyclone Larry (2006) over Northeast Australia

2008 ◽  
Vol 136 (11) ◽  
pp. 4334-4354 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamish A. Ramsay ◽  
Lance M. Leslie
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Wind Field ◽  
Complex Terrain ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Precipitation Pattern ◽  
Intense Storm

Abstract The interaction between complex terrain and a landfalling tropical cyclone (TC) over northeastern Australia is investigated using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU–NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5). Severe TC Larry (in March 2006) made landfall over an area of steep coastal orography and caused extensive damage. The damage pattern suggested that the mountainous terrain had a large influence on the TC wind field, with highly variable damage across relatively small distances. The major aims in this study were to reproduce the observed features of TC Larry, including track, intensity, speed of movement, size, decay rate, and the three-dimensional wind field using realistic high-resolution terrain data and a nested grid with a horizontal spacing of 1 km for the finest domain (referred to as CTRL), and to assess how the above parameters change when the terrain height is set to zero (NOTOPOG). The TC track for CTRL, including the timing and location of landfall, was in close agreement with observation, with the model eye overlapping the location of the observed eye at landfall. Setting the terrain height to zero resulted in a more southerly track and a more intense storm at landfall. The orography in CTRL had a large impact on the TC’s 3D wind field, particularly in the boundary layer where locally very high wind speeds, up to 68 m s−1, coincided with topographic slopes and ridges. The orography also affected precipitation, with localized maxima in elevated regions matching observed rainfall rates. In contrast, the precipitation pattern for the NOTOPOG TC was more symmetric and rainfall totals decreased rapidly with distance from the storm’s center. Parameterized maximum surface wind gusts were located beneath strong boundary layer jets. Finally, small-scale banding features were evident in the surface wind field over land for the NOTOPOG TC, owing to the interaction between the TC boundary layer flow and land surface characteristics.

The Effect of Topographic Variability on Initial Condition Sensitivity of Low-Level Wind Forecasts. Part I: Experiments Using Idealized Terrain

2013 ◽  
Vol 141 (7) ◽  
pp. 2137-2155 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul E. Bieringer ◽  
Peter S. Ray ◽  
Andrew J. Annunzio
Keyword(s):  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Observation System ◽  
Initial Condition ◽  
State University ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Meteorological Observations ◽  
Targeted Observation

Abstract The concept of improving the accuracy of numerical weather forecasts by targeting additional meteorological observations in areas where the initial condition error is suspected to grow rapidly has been the topic of numerous studies and field programs. The challenge faced by this approach is that it typically requires a costly observation system that can be quickly adapted to place instrumentation where needed. The present study examines whether the underlying terrain in a mesoscale model influences model initial condition sensitivity and if knowledge of the terrain and corresponding predominant flow patterns for a region can be used to direct the placement of instrumentation. This follows the same concept on which earlier targeted observation approaches were based, but eliminates the need for an observation system that needs to be continually reconfigured. Simulations from the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU–NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) and its adjoint are used to characterize the locations, variables, and magnitudes of initial condition perturbations that have the most significant impact on the surface wind forecast. This study examines a relatively simple case where an idealized mountain surrounded by a flat plain is located upwind of the forecast verification region. The results suggest that, when elevated terrain is present upstream of the target forecast area, the largest forecast impact (defined as the difference between the simulation with perturbed initial conditions and a control simulation where the initial condition was not perturbed) occurs when the initial analysis perturbations are made in regions with complex terrain.

scholarly journals Seeking for key meteorological parameters to better understand Hector

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (6) ◽  
pp. 3621-3653
Author(s):  
S. Gentile ◽  
R. Ferretti
Keyword(s):  
Potential Energy ◽  
Meteorological Parameters ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Type A ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Available Potential Energy

Abstract. Twelve Hector events, a storm developing in the northern Australia, are analyzed to the aim of identifying the main meteorological parameters involved in the convective development. Based on Crook's ideal study \\citep{Crook} wind speed and direction, wind shear, water vapor, Convective Available Potential Energy and type of convection are the parameters used for this analysis. Both European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis and high resolution simulations from the Fifth-Generation Mesoscale Model (MM5) are used. The MM5 simulations are used to connect the mean vertical velocity to the total condensate at the maximum stage and to study the dynamics of the storms. The ECMWF analysis are used to evaluate the initial conditions and the environmental fields contributing to Hector development. The analysis suggests that the strength of convection is largely contributing to the vertical distribution of hydrometeors. The role of total condensate and mean lifting vs. low level moisture, Convective Available Potential Energy, surface wind and direction is analyzed for shear and no-shear conditions to evaluate the differences between type A and B for real events. Results confirm the tendency suggested by Crook's analysis. On the other hand, Crook's hypothesis of low level moisture as the only parameter that differentiates between type A and B can be applied only if the events develop in the same meteorological conditions. Crook's tests also helped to asses how the the meteorological parameters contribute to Hector development in terms of percentage.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Surface Flux Parameterizations with Long-Term ARM Observations

2013 ◽  
Vol 141 (2) ◽  
pp. 773-797 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gang Liu ◽  
Yangang Liu ◽  
Satoshi Endo
Keyword(s):  
Latent Heat ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Bowen Ratio ◽  
Surface Flux ◽  
Surface Fluxes ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Parameterization Schemes ◽  
Surface Models ◽  
Flux Parameterization

Abstract Surface momentum, sensible heat, and latent heat fluxes are critical for atmospheric processes such as clouds and precipitation, and are parameterized in a variety of models ranging from cloud-resolving models to large-scale weather and climate models. However, direct evaluation of the parameterization schemes for these surface fluxes is rare due to limited observations. This study takes advantage of the long-term observations of surface fluxes collected at the Southern Great Plains site by the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program to evaluate the six surface flux parameterization schemes commonly used in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and three U.S. general circulation models (GCMs). The unprecedented 7-yr-long measurements by the eddy correlation (EC) and energy balance Bowen ratio (EBBR) methods permit statistical evaluation of all six parameterizations under a variety of stability conditions, diurnal cycles, and seasonal variations. The statistical analyses show that the momentum flux parameterization agrees best with the EC observations, followed by latent heat flux, sensible heat flux, and evaporation ratio/Bowen ratio. The overall performance of the parameterizations depends on atmospheric stability, being best under neutral stratification and deteriorating toward both more stable and more unstable conditions. Further diagnostic analysis reveals that in addition to the parameterization schemes themselves, the discrepancies between observed and parameterized sensible and latent heat fluxes may stem from inadequate use of input variables such as surface temperature, moisture availability, and roughness length. The results demonstrate the need for improving the land surface models and measurements of surface properties, which would permit the evaluation of full land surface models.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of WRF cloud microphysics to simulations of a severe thunderstorm event over Southeast India

2010 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 603-619 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Rajeevan ◽  
A. Kesarkar ◽  
S. B. Thampi ◽  
T. N. Rao ◽  
B. Radhakrishna ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Cloud Microphysics ◽  
Severe Thunderstorm ◽  
Severe Convection ◽  
Wind Measurements ◽  
Simulated Surface ◽  
Southeast India

Abstract. In the present study, we have used the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate the features associated with a severe thunderstorm observed over Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E), over southeast India, on 21 May 2008 and examined its sensitivity to four different microphysical (MP) schemes (Thompson, Lin, WSM6 and Morrison). We have used the WRF model with three nested domains with the innermost domain of 2 km grid spacing with explicit convection. The model was integrated for 36 h with the GFS initial conditions of 00:00 UTC, 21 May 2008. For validating simulated features of the thunderstorm, we have considered the vertical wind measurements made by the Indian MST radar installed at Gadanki, reflectivity profiles by the Doppler Weather Radar at Chennai, and automatic weather station data at Gadanki. There are major differences in the simulations of the thunderstorm among the MP schemes, in spite of using the same initial and boundary conditions and model configuration. First of all, all the four schemes simulated severe convection over Gadanki almost an hour before the observed storm. The DWR data suggested passage of two convective cores over Gadanki on 21 May, which was simulated by the model in all the four MP schemes. Comparatively, the Thompson scheme simulated the observed features of the updraft/downdraft cores reasonably well. However, all the four schemes underestimated strength and vertical extend of the updraft cores. The MP schemes also showed problems in simulating the downdrafts associated with the storm. While the Thompson scheme simulated surface rainfall distribution closer to observations, the other three schemes overestimated observed rainfall. However, all the four MP schemes simulated the surface wind variations associated with the thunderstorm reasonably well. The model simulated reflectivity profiles were consistent with the observed reflectivity profile, showing two convective cores. These features are consistent with the simulated condensate profiles, which peaked around 5–6 km. As the results are dependent on initial conditions, in simulations with different initial conditions, different schemes may become closer to observations. The present study suggests not only large sensitivity but also variability of the microphysical schemes in the simulations of the thunderstorm. The study also emphasizes the need for a comprehensive observational campaign using multi-observational platforms to improve the parameterization of the cloud microphysics and land surface processes over the Indian region.

scholarly journals Linkages between land initialization of the NASA-Unified WRF v7 and biogenic isoprene emission estimates during the SEAC<sup>4</sup>RS and DISCOVER-AQ airborne campaigns

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Min Huang ◽  
Gregory R. Carmichael ◽  
James H. Crawford ◽  
Armin Wisthaler ◽  
Xiwu Zhan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Temperature Fields ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Isoprene Emission

Abstract. Land and atmospheric initial conditions of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are often interpolated from a different model output. We perform case studies during NASA's SEAC4RS and DISCOVER-AQ Houston airborne campaigns, demonstrating that initializing the Noah land surface model directly using a coarser resolution dataset North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) led to significant positive biases in the coupled NASA-Unified WRF (NUWRF, version 7)'s (near-) surface air temperature and planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) around the Missouri Ozarks and Houston, Texas, as well as poorly partitioned latent and sensible heat fluxes. Replacing the land initial conditions with the output from a long-term offline Land Information System (LIS) simulation can effectively reduce the positive biases in NUWRF's surface air temperature fields by ~ 2 °C. We also show that the LIS land initialization can modify the surface air temperature errors almost ten times as effectively as applying a different atmospheric initialization method. The LIS-NUWRF based isoprene emission calculations by the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN, version 2.1) are at least 20 % lower than those computed using the NARR-initialized NUWRF run, and are closer to the aircraft observation-derived emissions. Higher resolution MEGAN calculations are prone to amplified errors on small scales, possibly resulted from some limitations of MEGAN's parameterization and its inputs' uncertainty. This study emphasizes the importance of proper land initialization to the coupled atmospheric weather modeling and the follow-on emission modeling, which we anticipate to be also critical to accurately representing other processes included in air quality modeling and chemical data assimilation. Having more confidence in the weather inputs is also beneficial for determining and quantifying the other sources of uncertainties (e.g., parameterization, other input data) of the models that they drive.

scholarly journals Seeking key meteorological parameters to better understand Hector

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 431-447
Author(s):  
S. Gentile ◽  
R. Ferretti
Keyword(s):  
Potential Energy ◽  
Vertical Velocity ◽  
Meteorological Parameters ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Type A ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Available Potential Energy

Abstract. Twelve Hector events, a storm which develops in northern Australia, are analyzed with the aim of identifying the main meteorological parameters involved in the storm's convective development. Based on Crook's ideal study (Crook, 2001), wind speed and direction, wind shear, water vapor, convective available potential energy and type of convection are the parameters used for this analysis. Both the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis and high-resolution simulations from the Fifth-Generation Mesoscale Model (MM5) are used. The MM5 simulations are used to connect the mean vertical velocity to the total condensate at the maximum stage and to study the dynamics of the storms. The ECMWF analyses are used to evaluate the initial conditions and the environmental fields contributing to Hector's development. The analysis suggests that the strength of convection, defined in terms of vertical velocity, largely contributes to the vertical distribution of hydrometeors. The role of total condensate and mean lifting versus low-level moisture, convective available potential energy, surface wind and direction is analyzed for shear and no-shear conditions to evaluate the differences between type A and B for real events. Results confirm the tendency suggested by Crook's analysis. However, Crook's hypothesis of low-level moisture as the only parameter that differentiates between type A and B can only be applied if the events develop in the same meteorological conditions. Crook's tests also helped to assess how the meteorological parameters contribute to Hector's development in terms of percentage.

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