scholarly journals The role of absolute humidity on transmission rates of the COVID-19 outbreak

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Luo ◽  
Maimuna S. Majumder ◽  
Diambo Liu ◽  
Canelle Poirier ◽  
Kenneth D Mandl ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Absolute Humidity ◽  
Viral Transmission ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Viral Diseases ◽  
Public Health Interventions ◽  
Transmission Rates ◽  
The North ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Province Level

A novel coronavirus (COVID-19) was identified in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, in December 2019 and has caused over 40,000 cases worldwide to date. Previous studies have supported an epidemiological hypothesis that cold and dry (low absolute humidity) environments facilitate the survival and spread of droplet-mediated viral diseases, and warm and humid (high absolute humidity) environments see attenuated viral transmission (i.e., influenza). How-ever, the role of absolute humidity in transmission of COVID-19 has not yet been established. Here, we examine province-level variability of the basic reproductive numbers of COVID-19 across China and find that changes in weather alone (i.e., increase of temperature and humidity as spring and summer months arrive in the North Hemisphere) will not necessarily lead to declines in COVID-19 case counts without the implementation of extensive public health interventions.

scholarly journals The context of leprosy in Brazil-Paraguay border

2016 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 225-232 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Elizabeth Araujo Ajalla ◽  
Sonia Maria Oliveira de Andrade ◽  
Edson Mamoru Tamaki ◽  
William Waissmann ◽  
Sandra Helena Correia Diettrich ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Detection Rates ◽  
Transmission Rates ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Information Unit ◽  
The North ◽  
Department Of Health ◽  
Grade Ii ◽  
Epidemiological Profile

Abstract In Brazil, leprosy is endemic in three regions: the North, Northeast, and Mid-West. Counties with contiguous binational urban areas are characterized by a constant fow of people, goods, and services, which facilitates the transmission of diseases and influences the epidemiological profile of leprosy. The purpose of this study was to examine territorial differences in relation to the incidence of leprosy, focusing on border counties with contiguous binational urban areas or otherwise. Each county was taken as an information unit for leprosy cases reported during 2001-2011, based on data from original notification records of the state's Department of Health. In counties with contiguous binational urban areas detection rates showed tendency to increase, Virchowian (lepromatous) disease and disability grade II predominated when compared with Groups II and III: 0.64 and 0.54/100,000 inhabitants for Virchowian desease and 0.14 and 0.27/100,000 inhabitants for disability grade II respectively, and were associated with higher transmission rates. The findings demonstrate the role of border areas in maintaining the endemicity of leprosy.

scholarly journals Transmissibility of 2019 Novel Coronavirus: zoonotic vs. human to human transmission, China, 2019-2020

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenji Mizumoto ◽  
Katsushi Kagaya ◽  
Gerardo Chowell
Keyword(s):  
Reporting Rate ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Quantitative Modeling ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Public Health Interventions ◽  
Reproduction Numbers ◽  
Daily Series ◽  
Early Effects ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Wet Market

AbstractObjectivesThe novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) originating from Wuhan has rapidly spread throughout China. While the origin of the outbreak remains uncertain, accumulating evidence links a wet market in Wuhan for the early spread of 2019-nCoV. Similarly, the influence of the marketplace on the early transmission dynamics is yet to be investigated.MethodsUsing the daily series of 2019-nCov incidenceincluding contact history with the market, we have conducted quantitative modeling analyses to estimate the reproduction numbers (R) for the market-to-human and human-to-human transmission together with the reporting probability and the early effects of public health interventions.ResultsOur mean R estimates for China in 2019-2020 are estimated at 0.37 (95%CrI: 0.02-1.78) for market-to-human transmission, and 3.87 (95%CrI: 3.18-4.78) for human-to-human transmission, respectively. Moreover we estimated that the reporting rate cases stemming from market-to-human transmission was 3-31 fold higher than that for cases stemming from human-to-human transmission, suggesting that contact history with the wet market played a key role in identifying 2019-nCov cases.ConclusionsOur findings suggest that the proportions of asymptomatic and subclinical patients constitute a substantial component of the epidemic’s magnitude. Findings suggest that the development of rapid diagnostic tests could help bring the epidemic more rapidly under control.

scholarly journals Public Health Interventions’ Effect on Hospital Use in Patients With COVID-19: Comparative Study (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaofeng Wang ◽  
Rui Ren ◽  
Michael W Kattan ◽  
Lara Jehi ◽  
Zhenshun Cheng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
United States ◽  
New York ◽  
New York State ◽  
The United States ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Public Health Interventions ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Transmission Rates ◽  
Hospital Use

BACKGROUND Different states in the United States had different nonpharmaceutical public health interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic. The effects of those interventions on hospital use have not been systematically evaluated. The investigation could provide data-driven evidence to potentially improve the implementation of public health interventions in the future. OBJECTIVE We aim to study two representative areas in the United States and one area in China (New York State, Ohio State, and Hubei Province), and investigate the effects of their public health interventions by time periods according to key interventions. METHODS This observational study evaluated the numbers of infected, hospitalized, and death cases in New York and Ohio from March 16 through September 14, 2020, and Hubei from January 26 to March 31, 2020. We developed novel Bayesian generalized compartmental models. The clinical stages of COVID-19 were stratified in the models, and the effects of public health interventions were modeled through piecewise exponential functions. Time-dependent transmission rates and effective reproduction numbers were estimated. The associations of interventions and the numbers of required hospital and intensive care unit beds were studied. RESULTS The interventions of social distancing, home confinement, and wearing masks significantly decreased (in a Bayesian sense) the case incidence and reduced the demand for beds in all areas. Ohio’s transmission rates declined before the state’s “stay at home” order, which provided evidence that early intervention is important. Wearing masks was significantly associated with reducing the transmission rates after reopening, when comparing New York and Ohio. The centralized quarantine intervention in Hubei played a significant role in further preventing and controlling the disease in that area. The estimated rates that cured patients become susceptible in all areas were small (<0.0001), which indicates that they have little chance to get the infection again. CONCLUSIONS The series of public health interventions in three areas were temporally associated with the burden of COVID-19–attributed hospital use. Social distancing and the use of face masks should continue to prevent the next peak of the pandemic.

scholarly journals Novel Coronavirus and Related Public Health Interventions Are Negatively Impacting Mental Health Services

2020 ◽  
Vol 61 (5) ◽  
pp. 568-571 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott A. Simpson ◽  
Audrey Dumas ◽  
Anna K. McDowell ◽  
Patricia Westmoreland
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Mental Health ◽  
Mental Health Services ◽  
Health Services ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Public Health Interventions ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Conceptualizing the Cost of COVID Policy: The Role of Institutional Trade-Offs

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Vincent Geloso
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Economic History ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Public Health Interventions ◽  
Short Article ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Institutional Trade ◽  
The Cost

Abstract In this short article, I summarize recent research in economic history that suggests long-run institutional trade-offs in public health that affect both health and economic outcomes. These trade-offs suggest that a long timespan is necessary to fully measure the consequences of heavy-handed public health interventions. This timespan means that those who have declared “victory” or “defeat” in the wake of COVID policy are premature. Modesty in terms of policy evaluation and prescription is still warranted.

scholarly journals Effects of Weather on Coronavirus Pandemic

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (15) ◽  
pp. 5399 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qasim Bukhari ◽  
Joseph M. Massaro ◽  
Ralph B. D’Agostino ◽  
Sheraz Khan
Keyword(s):  
Absolute Humidity ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
World Health ◽  
The Novel ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Effective Public Health ◽  
Local Weather ◽  
Peak Summer

The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has spread globally and has been declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization. While influenza virus shows seasonality, it is unknown if COVID-19 has any weather-related affect. In this work, we analyze the patterns in local weather of all the regions affected by COVID-19 globally. Our results indicate that approximately 85% of the COVID-19 reported cases until 1 May 2020, making approximately 3 million reported cases (out of approximately 29 million tests performed) have occurred in regions with temperature between 3 and 17 °C and absolute humidity between 1 and 9 g/m3. Similarly, hot and humid regions outside these ranges have only reported around 15% or approximately 0.5 million cases (out of approximately 7 million tests performed). This suggests that weather might be playing a role in COVID-19 spread across the world. However, this role could be limited in US and European cities (above 45 N), as mean temperature and absolute humidity levels do not reach these ranges even during the peak summer months. For hot and humid countries, most of them have already been experiencing temperatures >35 °C and absolute humidity >9 g/m3 since the beginning of March, and therefore the effect of weather, however little it is, has already been accounted for in the COVID-19 spread in those regions, and they must take strict social distancing measures to stop the further spread of COVID-19. Our analysis showed that the effect of weather may have only resulted in comparatively slower spread of COVID-19, but not halted it. We found that cases in warm and humid countries have consistently increased, accounting for approximately 500,000 cases in regions with absolute humidity >9 g/m3, therefore effective public health interventions must be implemented to stop the spread of COVID-19. This also means that ‘summer’ would not alone stop the spread of COVID-19 in any part of the world.

scholarly journals The role of connectivity on COVID-19 preventive approaches

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Miró Pina ◽  
J. Nava-Trejo ◽  
A. Tóbiás ◽  
E. Nzabarushimana ◽  
A. Gonzalez-Casanova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Contact Structure ◽  
Vaccination Strategy ◽  
Demographic Characteristics ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Public Health Interventions ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Modelling Approaches

AbstractPreventive and modelling approaches to address the COVID-19 pandemic have been primarily based on the age or occupation, and often disregard the importance of the population contact structure and individual connectivity. To address this gap, we developed models that first incorporate the role of heterogeneity and connectivity and then can be expanded to make assumptions about demographic characteristics. Results demonstrate that variations in the number of connections of individuals within a population modify the impact of public health interventions such vaccination approaches. We conclude that the most effective vaccination strategy will vary depending on the underlying contact structure of individuals within a population and on timing of the interventions.

scholarly journals Estimating the risk of 2019 Novel Coronavirus death during the course of the outbreak in China, 2020

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenji Mizumoto ◽  
Gerardo Chowell
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Time Delay ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Public Health Interventions ◽  
Wuhan City ◽  
Death Risk ◽  
First Case ◽  
Medical Health ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

AbstractSince the first case of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCov) was identified in December 2019 in Wuhan City, China, the number of cases continues to grow across China and multiple cases have been exported to other countries. The cumulative number of reported deaths is at 637 as of February 7, 2020. Here we statistically estimated the time-delay adjusted death risk for Wuhan as well as for China excluding Wuhan to interpret the current severity of the epidemic in China. We found that the latest estimates of the death risk in Wuhan could be as high as 20% in the epicenter of the epidemic whereas we estimate it ∼1% in the relatively mildly-affected areas. Because the elevated death risk estimates are likely associated with a breakdown of the medical/health system, enhanced public health interventions including social distancing and movement restrictions should be effectively implemented to bring the epidemic under control.

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