scholarly journals Early Prediction of Disease Progression in 2019 Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Patients Outside Wuhan with CT and Clinical Characteristics

Author(s):  
Zhichao Feng ◽  
Qizhi Yu ◽  
Shanhu Yao ◽  
Lei Luo ◽  
Junhong Duan ◽  
...  

AbstractObjectiveTo determine the predictive value of CT and clinical characteristics for short-term disease progression in patients with 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia (NCP).Materials and Methods224 patients with confirmed 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection outside Wuhan who had chest CT examinations were retrospectively screened. Clinical data were obtained from electronic medical records. CT images were reviewed and scored for lesion distribution, lobe and segment involvement, ground-glass opacities, consolidation, and interstitial thickening. All included patients with moderate NCP were observed for at least 14 days from admission to determine whether they exacerbated to severe NCP (progressive group) or not (stable group). CT and clinical characteristics between the two groups were compared, and multivariate logistic regression and sensitivity analyses were performed to identify the risk factors for developing severe NCP.ResultsA total of 141 patients with moderate NCP were included, of which 15 (10.6%) patients developed severe NCP during hospitalization and assigned to the progressive group. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that higher neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) (odds ratio [OR] and 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.26 [1.04-1.53]; P = 0.018) and CT severity score (OR and 95% CI, 1.25 [1.08-1.46]; P = 0.004) on admission were independent predictors for progression to severe NCP, and sensitivity analysis confirmed the consistent results in nonimported patients but not in imported patients. However, no significant difference in lung involvement was found on CT between imported and nonimported patients (all P > 0.05). Patients who were admitted more than 4 days from symptom onset tended to have more severe lung involvement. Spearman correlation analysis showed the close association between CT severity score and inflammatory indexes (r = 0.17∼0.47, all P < 0.05).ConclusionCT severity score was associated with inflammatory levels and higher NLR and CT severity score on admission were independent risk factors for short-term progression in patients with NCP outside Wuhan. Furthermore, early admission and surveillance by CT should be recommended to improve clinical outcomes.

2021 ◽  
pp. 000313482110241
Author(s):  
Christine Tung ◽  
Junko Ozao-Choy ◽  
Dennis Y. Kim ◽  
Christian de Virgilio ◽  
Ashkan Moazzez

There are limited studies regarding outcomes of replacing an infected mesh with another mesh. We reviewed short-term outcomes following infected mesh removal and whether placement of new mesh is associated with worse outcomes. Patients who underwent hernia repair with infected mesh removal were identified from 2005 to 2018 American College of Surgeons-National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database. They were divided into new mesh (Mesh+) or no mesh (Mesh-) groups. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to compare morbidity between the two groups and to identify associated risk factors. Of 1660 patients, 49.3% received new mesh, with higher morbidity in the Mesh+ (35.9% vs. 30.3%; P = .016), but without higher rates of surgical site infection (SSI) (21.3% vs. 19.7%; P = .465). Mesh+ had higher rates of acute kidney injury (1.3% vs. .4%; P = .028), UTI (3.1% vs. 1.3%, P = .014), ventilator dependence (4.9% vs. 2.4%; P = .006), and longer LOS (8.6 vs. 7 days, P < .001). Multivariate logistic regression showed new mesh placement (OR: 1.41; 95% CI: 1.07-1.85; P = .014), body mass index (OR: 1.02; 95% CI: 1.00-1.03; P = .022), and smoking (OR: 1.43; 95% CI: 1.05-1.95; P = .025) as risk factors independently associated with increased morbidity. New mesh placement at time of infected mesh removal is associated with increased morbidity but not with SSI. Body mass index and smoking history continue to contribute to postoperative morbidity during subsequent operations for complications.


2013 ◽  
Vol 118 (6) ◽  
pp. 1329-1335 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu-Hua Huang ◽  
Tao-Chen Lee ◽  
Tsung-Han Lee ◽  
Chen-Chieh Liao ◽  
Jason Sheehan ◽  
...  

Object Decompressive craniectomy is a life-saving measure for patients who have sustained traumatic brain injury (TBI), but patients undergoing this procedure may still die during an early phase of head injury. The aim of this study was to investigate the incidence, causes, and risk factors of 30-day mortality in traumatically brain-injured patients undergoing decompressive craniectomy. Methods The authors included 201 head-injured patients undergoing decompressive craniectomy in this 3-year retrospective study. The main outcome evaluated was 30-day mortality in patients who had undergone craniectomy after TBI. Demographic and clinical data, including information on death, were obtained for subsequent analysis. The authors identified differences between survivors and nonsurvivors in terms of clinical parameters; multivariate logistic regression was used to adjust for independent risk factors of short-term death. Results The 30-day mortality rate was 26.4% in traumatically brain-injured patients undergoing decompressive craniectomy. The majority of deaths following decompression resulted from uncontrollable brain swelling and extensive brain infarction, which accounted for 79.2% of mortality. In the multivariate logistic regression mode, the 2 independent risk factors for 30-day mortality were age (OR 1.035 [95% CI 1.006–1.064]; p = 0.018) and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score before decompressive craniectomy (OR 0.769 [95% CI 0.597–0.990]; p = 0.041). Conclusions There is a high 30-day mortality rate in traumatically brain-injured patients undergoing decompressive craniectomy. Most of the deaths are attributed to ongoing brain damage, even after decompression. Risk factors of short-term death, including age and preoperative GCS score, are important in patient selection for decompressive craniectomy, and these factors should be considered together to ensure the highest chance of surviving TBI.


2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoyan Huang ◽  
Zicheng Cheng ◽  
Ye Xu ◽  
Lingfan Xia ◽  
Zhenxiang Zhan ◽  
...  

Objective: We retrospectively analyzed clinical characteristics, etiology, and mortality risk factors in pediatric cases of non-traumatic spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage.Methods: This study involved children between 29 days and 18 years old with confirmed spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage based on head CT or MRI at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University and Yuying Children's Hospital from January 2008 to March 2020. Demographic and clinical characteristics, etiology, imaging, and treatment data were collected at baseline. Potential risk factors of in-hospital death were identified using univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression.Result: A total of 200 children (126 males, median age 5 years) were included in the study. Clinical symptoms of spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage were typically non-specific (79.5%). One third of patients (31.1%) had a Glasgow Coma Scale score (GCS) ≤ 8, and nearly two-thirds (60.5%) showed a combination of ventricular hemorrhage or subarachnoid hemorrhage. Supratentorial hemorrhage was more common. Cerebrovascular disease (37.0%) and hematological disease (33.5%) were the most frequent etiologies of spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage. Most patients (74.5%) received non-surgical treatment, while 25.5% received surgical treatment. After an average of 12 days of treatment, 167 children (83.5%) survived and 33 (16.5%) died. Multivariate logistic regression showed herniation syndrome, and low GCS (≤ 8) to be associated with increased risk of mortality, while hemorrhage due to arteriovenous malformation was associated with lower risk of mortality.Conclusion: Our data suggest that cerebrovascular disease is the most common cause of spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage among children, and that arteriovenous malformation is associated with lower risk of death in hospital. Conversely, the presence of herniation syndrome, low GCS (≤ 8) increase risk of in-hospital mortality. Our results underscore the importance of timely imaging and supplementary examinations in cases of suspected spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage.


2021 ◽  
Vol In Press (In Press) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mesut Dursun ◽  
Umut Zubarioglu

Background: Respiratory severity score (RSS) is a simple, non-invasive respiratory failure assessment tool that its appropriateness for lung disease severity is well-established. Objectives: This study aimed to investigate the potential value of early-life RSS values in predicting mortality or severe bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) in infants with extremely low birth weight (ELBW) undergoing invasive mechanical ventilation. Methods: Following a retrospective approach, the current multi-center study intended to estimate the RSS and RSS/kg values in the first three days of life and time-weighted means of these values in ELBW babies who received invasive mechanical ventilation. Participants were categorized into two groups of survival without severe BPD and those with severe BPD or death. All RSS values and other risk factors were compared between groups. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify factors affecting severe BPD or death. The sensitivity and specificity of RSS values in predicting severe BPD or death were estimated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Results: A total of 101 infants met the inclusion criteria. All RSS and RSS/kg values in the first three days of life were found to be significantly higher in the severe BPD or death group. The maximum area under the curve (AUC) in the ROC curves created for the respiratory severity score values was determined as RSS/kg mean with a cut-off value of 3.62 (85.3%), (P = 0.001). According to the multivariate logistic regression analysis, which included risk factors that may affect the development of severe BPD or mortality, both the mean RSS/kg score and the duration of invasive mechanical ventilation maintained statistically significant. [RSS/kg mean; OR = 2.28 (1.37 – 3.78), P = 0.001], [invasive MV duration; OR = 1.08 (95% CI, 1.03 – 1.14), P = 0.003]. Conclusions: This study demonstrated that high RSS/kg mean values in the early periods of life are valuable in predicting severe BPD or death in ELBW babies undergoing invasive mechanical ventilation. Furthermore, mean RSS had more predictive power than single RSS determinations, and incorporating body weight was associated with improved sensitivity of the score.


2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chen Dong ◽  
Minhui Zhu ◽  
Luguang Huang ◽  
Wei Liu ◽  
Hengxin Liu ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Tissue expansion is used for scar reconstruction owing to its excellent clinical outcomes; however, the complications that emerge from tissue expansion hinder repair. Infection is considered a major complication of tissue expansion. This study aimed to analyze the perioperative risk factors for expander infection. Methods A large, retrospective, single-institution observational study was carried out over a 10-year period. The study enrolled consecutive patients who had undergone tissue expansion for scar reconstruction. Demographics, etiological data, expander-related characteristics and postoperative infection were assessed. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis were performed to identify risk factors for expander infection. In addition, we conducted a sensitivity analysis for treatment failure caused by infection as an outcome. Results A total of 2374 expanders and 148 cases of expander infection were assessed. Treatment failure caused by infection occurred in 14 expanders. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified that disease duration of ≤1 year (odds ratio (OR), 2.07; p &lt; 0.001), larger volume of expander (200–400 ml vs &lt;200 ml; OR, 1.74; p = 0.032; &gt;400 ml vs &lt;200 ml; OR, 1.76; p = 0.049), limb location (OR, 2.22; p = 0.023) and hematoma evacuation (OR, 2.17; p = 0.049) were associated with a high likelihood of expander infection. Disease duration of ≤1 year (OR, 3.88; p = 0.015) and hematoma evacuation (OR, 10.35; p = 0.001) were so related to high risk of treatment failure. Conclusions The rate of expander infection in patients undergoing scar reconstruction was 6.2%. Disease duration of &lt;1 year, expander volume of &gt;200 ml, limb location and postoperative hematoma evacuation were independent risk factors for expander infection.


2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (10) ◽  
pp. 373
Author(s):  
Chia-Ter Chao ◽  
Yung-Ming Chen ◽  
Fu-Hui Ho ◽  
Kun-Pei Lin ◽  
Jen-Hau Chen ◽  
...  

Longitudinal changes of renal function help inform patients’ clinical courses and improve risk stratification. Rare studies address risk factors predicting changes in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) over time in older adults, particularly of Chinese ethnicity. We identified prospectively enrolled community-dwelling older adults (≥65 years) receiving annual health examinations between 2005 and 2015 with serum creatinine available continuously in a single institute, and used linear regression to derive individual’s annual eGFR changes, followed by multivariate logistic regression analyses to identify features associated with different eGFR change patterns. Among 500 elderly (71.3 ± 4.2 years), their mean annual eGFR changes were 0.84 ± 1.67 mL/min/1.73 m2/year, with 136 (27.2%) and 238 (47.6%) classified as having downward (annual eGFR change <0 mL/min/1.73 m2/year) and upward eGFR (≥1 mL/min/1.73 m2/year) trajectories, respectively. Multivariate logistic regression showed that higher age (odds ratio (OR) 1.08), worse renal function (OR 13.2), and more severe proteinuria (OR 9.86) or hematuria (OR 3.39) were predictive of a declining eGFR while greater waist circumference (OR 1.06) and higher leukocyte counts (OR 1.21) were predictive of an uprising 10-year eGFR. These findings elucidate important features associated with geriatric renal function variations, which are expected to improve their renal care.


2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jin-Xi Huang ◽  
Song-Ming Hong ◽  
Qiang Chen ◽  
Zeng-Chun Wang ◽  
Dian-Ming Wu ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Oesophageal atresia is a congenital malformation of the oesophagus and a serious malformation of the digestive system, postoperative complications include acute respiratory failure, pneumonia, anastomotic fistula, anastomotic stenosis, tracheal stenosis, gastroesophageal reflux and eosinophilic oesophagitis, anastomotic fistula is one of the important causes of postoperative death. The objective of this study is to identify the risk factors for anastomotic complications after one-stage anastomosis for oesophageal atresia. Methods A retrospective analysis was performed on the clinical data of 107 children with congenital oesophageal atresia who underwent one-stage anastomosis in our hospital from January 2013 to December 2018. Single-factor and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the risk factors for anastomotic fistula and anastomotic stenosis. Results A total of 107 children with oesophageal atresia underwent one-stage anastomosis, and the incidence of anastomotic fistula was 26.2%. The probability of anastomotic stenosis in the long term was 52.3%, and the incidence of refractory stenosis (dilation ≥5 times) was 13.1%. Analysis of the clinical count data in the anastomotic fistula group and non-anastomotic fistula group showed that preoperative albumin (F = 4.199, P = 0.043), low birth weight (F = 7.668, P = 0.007) and long gap defects (F = 6.107, P = 0.015) were risk factors for postoperative anastomotic fistula. Further multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that low birth weight (Wald2 = 4.499, P = 0.034, OR = 2.775) and long gap defects (Wald2 = 6.769, P = 0.009, OR = 4.939) were independent risk factors for postoperative anastomotic fistula. Premature delivery (F = 5.338, P = 0.023), anastomotic fistula (F = 11.381, P = 0.001), endoscopic surgery (F = 6.343, P = 0.013), preoperative neutrophil count (F = 8.602, P = 0.004), preoperative low albumin (F = 8.410, P = 0.005), and a preoperative prognostic nutritional index < 54 (F = 5.54, P = 0.02) were risk factors for refractory anastomotic stenosis in children. Further multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that postoperative anastomotic fistula (Wald2 = 11.417, P = 0.001, OR = 8.798), endoscopic surgery (Wald2 = 9.633, P = 0.002, OR = 4.808), and a prognostic nutritional index < 54 (Wald2 = 4.540, P = 0.002, OR = 2.3798) were independent risk factors for refractory anastomotic stenosis. Conclusion Low birth weight and long gap defects are important predictors of postoperative anastomotic fistula, and the possibility of refractory anastomotic stenosis should be considered. The long-term risk of anastomotic stenosis was increased in children undergoing endoscopic surgery and in those with a preoperative prognostic nutritional index < 54.


Author(s):  
Elisabetta Schiaroli ◽  
Anna Gidari ◽  
Giovanni Brachelente ◽  
Sabrina Bastianelli ◽  
Alfredo Villa ◽  
...  

IntroductionCOVID-19 is characterized by a wide range of clinical expression and by possible progression to critical illness and death. Therefore it is essential to identify risk factors predicting progression towards serious and fatal diseases. The aim of our study was to identify laboratory predictive markers of clinical progression in patients with moderate/severe disease and in those with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS).Material and methodsUsing electronic medical records for all demographic, clinical and laboratory data, a retrospective study on all consecutive patients with COVID-19 admitted to the Infectious Disease Clinic of Perugia was performed. The PaO2/FiO2 ratio (P/F) assessment cut‑off of 200 mm Hg was used at baseline to categorize the patients into two clinical groups. The progression towards invasive ventilation and/or death was used to identify critical outcome. Statistical analysis was performed. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was adopted to identify risk factors of critical illness and mortality.ResultsIn multivariate logistic regression analysis neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR) was the only significant predictive factor of progression to a critical outcome (p = 0.03) and of in-hospital mortality (p = 0.03). In ARDS patients no factors were associated with critical progression. Serum ferritin > 1006 ng/ml was the only predictive value of critical outcome in COVID-19 subjects with moderate/severe disease (p = 0.02).ConclusionsNeutrophil/lymphocyte ratio and serum ferritin are the only biomarkers that can help to stratify the risk of severity and mortality in patients with COVID-19.


Blood ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 138 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 2418-2418
Author(s):  
Xiaomeng Yue ◽  
David Hallett ◽  
Yangyang Liu ◽  
Reethi Iyengar ◽  
Elisa Basa ◽  
...  

Abstract Introduction COVID-19 poses a serious concern for mB-cell NHL patients given their advanced age, high burden of comorbidities, and immune dysfunction. Limited by smaller sample sizes during the early period of the COVID-19 pandemic, previous studies were unable to thoroughly evaluate the impact of COVID-19 on patients with mB-cell NHL 1,2. We aim to describe demographics and clinical characteristics, outcomes, and risk factors associated with death and other severe outcomes among COVID-19 patients with mB-cell NHL in a large US nationwide database. Methods This retrospective cohort study was conducted using the Optum EHR database, comprising data from an integrated network of ambulatory and hospital care providers across the US. Patients with COVID-19 (diagnosis code of U07.1, U07.2, or a positive result of SARS-Cov-2 virus PCR or antigen tests) between Feb. 1, 2020 and Jan 7, 2021 (index date) and mB-cell NHL diagnosis prior to the COVID-19 diagnosis were included. Patients were excluded if they were under 18 years of age, had missing age or sex, or had &lt;1year continuous eligibility prior to their index date (pre-index period). All baseline characteristics, including demographics and comorbidities, were determined during the one-year pre-index period. Severe outcomes, including death, hospitalization, ICU admission, and acute respiratory insufficiency (ARI), were evaluated within 30 days post-index date. Multivariable logistic regression was conducted to identify variables independently associated with severe outcomes. Results Among 2,767 patients with mB-cell NHL who were infected with SARS-CoV-2 between Feb. 1, 2020 and Jan. 7, 2021 (mean age±SD: 67.9 years±14.7, 53.9% male), majority were white (73.9%), followed by African American (10.9%), Hispanic (6.9%), and Asian (1.2%). The most common subtypes of mB-cell NHL were chronic lymphocytic leukemia/small lymphocytic lymphoma (26.9%), multiple myeloma (22.4%), diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (13.2%), and follicular lymphoma (7.3%). Of these patients, 93.4% have at least one comorbidity. The most common comorbidities were hypertension (58.5%), neurological disease (49.4%), diabetes (28.2%), ischemic heart disease (25.5%), cardiac arrhythmia/conduction disorders (24.4%), chronic kidney disease (CKD, 19.2%), heart failure/cardiomyopathy (18.1%), and COPD (12.3%). Overall, 960 patients (34.7%) developed severe outcomes, among which, 847 patients (30.6%) were hospitalized, 214 patients (7.7%) were admitted to the ICU, 201 patients (7.3%) experienced ARI, and 220 patients (8.0%) died. Multivariable logistic regression showed that increased odds of severe outcomes were independently associated with older age (85+ years vs. &lt;65 years; adjusted odds ratio [OR], 2.0; 95% CI, 1.4-2.7), male gender (OR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.1-1.6), insurance coverage with Medicaid (OR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.1-2.9) and/or Medicare (vs. commercial only; OR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.5-2.5), infected during the first quarter (OR, 5.6; 95% CI, 3.4-9.4) or second quarter of 2020 (vs. fourth quarter of 2020; OR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.4-2.1), having CKD (OR, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.0-1.6), COPD (OR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.0-1.8), diabetes (OR, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.1-1.6), and receiving active treatment for NHL (OR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.0-2.0) within 30 days prior to COVID-19 diagnosis (Figure). Conclusions This study demonstrated key demographic and clinical characteristics associated with severe outcomes among COVID-19 patients with mB-cell NHL using one of the largest nationwide databases. Risk factors for severe outcomes identified in the general population, such as older age, male gender, and having certain underlying medical conditions were also identified in this study. In addition, COVID-19 infection occurring earlier in the pandemic and receiving active NHL treatments were associated with severe outcomes. These latter two observations might reflect the improvement in patient management during the latter period of the pandemic and that active mB-cell NHL disease and treatment rendered an increased risk of severe outcomes in COVID-19 patients with mB-cell NHL. These insights highlight the importance of utilizing demographic, clinical and treatment information to estimate the risk for severe outcomes, whereas prospective studies focusing on optimal COVID-19 management are required to identify specific actions that can be taken to improve outcomes of COVID-19 in patients with mB-cell NHL. Figure 1 Figure 1. Disclosures Yue: Joule: Current Employment. Hallett: AbbVie: Current Employment. Liu: AbbVie: Current Employment. Iyengar: AbbVie: Current Employment. Basa: AbbVie: Current Employment. Yang: AbbVie: Current Employment.


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