scholarly journals To mask or not to mask: Modeling the potential for face mask use by the general public to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steffen E. Eikenberry ◽  
Marina Mancuso ◽  
Enahoro Iboi ◽  
Tin Phan ◽  
Keenan Eikenberry ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
General Public ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
New York State ◽  
Face Mask ◽  
Epidemic Dynamics ◽  
Highly Nonlinear ◽  
Community Transmission ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact

AbstractFace mask use by the general public for limiting the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic is controversial, though increasingly recommended, and the potential of this intervention is not well understood. We develop a compartmental model for assessing the community-wide impact of mask use by the general, asymptomatic public, a portion of which may be asymptomatically infectious. Model simulations, using data relevant to COVID-19 dynamics in the US states of New York and Washington, suggest that broad adoption of even relatively ineffective face masks may meaningfully reduce community transmission of COVID-19 and decrease peak hospitalizations and deaths. Moreover, mask use decreases the effective transmission rate in nearly linear proportion to the product of mask effectiveness (as a fraction of potentially infectious contacts blocked) and coverage rate (as a fraction of the general population), while the impact on epidemiologic outcomes (death, hospitalizations) is highly nonlinear, indicating masks could synergize with other non-pharmaceutical measures. Notably, masks are found to be useful with respect to both preventing illness in healthy persons and preventing asymptomatic transmission. Hypothetical mask adoption scenarios, for Washington and New York state, suggest that immediate near universal (80%) adoption of moderately (50%) effective masks could prevent on the order of 17–45% of projected deaths over two months in New York, while decreasing the peak daily death rate by 34–58%, absent other changes in epidemic dynamics. Even very weak masks (20% effective) can still be useful if the underlying transmission rate is relatively low or decreasing: In Washington, where baseline transmission is much less intense, 80% adoption of such masks could reduce mortality by 24–65% (and peak deaths 15–69%), compared to 2–9% mortality reduction in New York (peak death reduction 9–18%). Our results suggest use of face masks by the general public is potentially of high value in curtailing community transmission and the burden of the pandemic. The community-wide benefits are likely to be greatest when face masks are used in conjunction with other non-pharmaceutical practices (such as social-distancing), and when adoption is nearly universal (nation-wide) and compliance is high.

scholarly journals Modeling the impact of racial and ethnic disparities on COVID-19 epidemic dynamics

eLife ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin C Ma ◽  
Tigist F Menkir ◽  
Stephen M Kissler ◽  
Yonatan H Grad ◽  
Marc Lipsitch
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Race And Ethnicity ◽  
Census Data ◽  
New York State ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Ethnic Disparities ◽  
Racial And Ethnic Disparities ◽  
Epidemic Dynamics ◽  
Seroprevalence Data ◽  
The Impact

Background: The impact of variable infection risk by race and ethnicity on the dynamics of SARS CoV-2 spread is largely unknown. Methods: Here, we fit structured compartmental models to seroprevalence data from New York State and analyze how herd immunity thresholds (HITs), final sizes, and epidemic risk changes across groups. Results: A simple model where interactions occur proportionally to contact rates reduced the HIT, but more realistic models of preferential mixing within groups increased the threshold toward the value observed in homogeneous populations. Across all models, the burden of infection fell disproportionately on minority populations: in a model fit to Long Island serosurvey and census data, 81% of Hispanics or Latinos were infected when the HIT was reached compared to 34% of non-Hispanic whites. Conclusions: Our findings, which are meant to be illustrative and not best estimates, demonstrate how racial and ethnic disparities can impact epidemic trajectories and result in unequal distributions of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Funding: K.C.M. was supported by National Science Foundation GRFP grant DGE1745303. Y.H.G. and M.L. were funded by the Morris-Singer Foundation.

The Impact of Customer Loyalty and Restaurant Sanitation Grades on Revisit Intention and the Importance of Narrative Information: The Case of New York Restaurant Sanitation Grading System

2017 ◽  
Vol 59 (3) ◽  
pp. 275-284 ◽  
Author(s):  
Min Gyung Kim ◽  
Hyunjoo Yang ◽  
Anna S. Mattila
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
Customer Loyalty ◽  
York City ◽  
Letter Grades ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Revisit Intentions ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Loyal Customers

New York City launched a restaurant sanitation letter grade system in 2010. We evaluate the impact of customer loyalty on restaurant revisit intentions after exposure to a sanitation grade alone, and after exposure to a sanitation grade plus narrative information about sanitation violations (e.g., presence of rats). We use a 2 (loyalty: high or low) × 4 (sanitation grade: A, B, C, or pending) between-subjects full factorial design to test the hypotheses using data from 547 participants recruited from Amazon MTurk who reside in the New York City area. Our study yields three findings. First, loyal customers exhibit higher intentions to revisit restaurants than non-loyal customers, regardless of sanitation letter grades. Second, the difference in revisit intentions between loyal and non-loyal customers is higher when sanitation grades are poorer. Finally, loyal customers are less sensitive to narrative information about sanitation violations.

scholarly journals The impact of the 2006 Massachusetts health care reform law on spine surgery patient payer-mix status and age

2017 ◽  
Vol 27 (6) ◽  
pp. 694-699 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicolas W. Villelli ◽  
Hong Yan ◽  
Jian Zou ◽  
Nicholas M. Barbaro
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
New York ◽  
Health Care Reform ◽  
Health Care System ◽  
Spine Surgery ◽  
Private Insurance ◽  
New York State ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Care System

OBJECTIVESeveral similarities exist between the Massachusetts health care reform law of 2006 and the Affordable Care Act (ACA). The authors’ prior neurosurgical research showed a decrease in uninsured surgeries without a significant change in surgical volume after the Massachusetts reform. An analysis of the payer-mix status and the age of spine surgery patients, before and after the policy, should provide insight into the future impact of the ACA on spine surgery in the US.METHODSUsing the Massachusetts State Inpatient Database and spine ICD-9-CM procedure codes, the authors obtained demographic information on patients undergoing spine surgery between 2001 and 2012. Payer-mix status was assigned as Medicare, Medicaid, private insurance, uninsured, or other, which included government-funded programs and workers’ compensation. A comparison of the payer-mix status and patient age, both before and after the policy, was performed. The New York State data were used as a control.RESULTSThe authors analyzed 81,821 spine surgeries performed in Massachusetts and 248,757 in New York. After 2008, there was a decrease in uninsured and private insurance spine surgeries, with a subsequent increase in the Medicare and “other” categories for Massachusetts. Medicaid case numbers did not change. This correlated to an increase in surgeries performed in the age group of patients 65–84 years old, with a decrease in surgeries for those 18–44 years old. New York showed an increase in all insurance categories and all adult age groups.CONCLUSIONSAfter the Massachusetts reform, spine surgery decreased in private insurance and uninsured categories, with the majority of these surgeries transitioning to Medicare. Moreover, individuals who were younger than 65 years did not show an increase in spine surgeries, despite having greater access to health insurance. In a health care system that requires insurance, the decrease in private insurance is primarily due to an increasing elderly population. The Massachusetts model continues to show that this type of policy is not causing extreme shifts in the payer mix, and suggests that spine surgery will continue to thrive in the current US health care system.

The Public Sector Mediation Process

1978 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 209-240 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas A. Kochan ◽  
Todd Jick
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Public Sector ◽  
Personal Characteristics ◽  
Mediation Process ◽  
Municipal Governments ◽  
The Public ◽  
Situational Characteristics ◽  
Alternative Sources ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact

This paper develops and tests a model of the labor mediation process using data from a sample of negotiations involving municipal governments and police and firefighter unions in the State of New York. The test of the model also incorporates an estimate of the impact of a change in the statutory impasse procedures governing these groups. The model examines the impact of (1) alternative sources of impasse, (2) situational characteristics, (3) strategies of the mediators, and (4) personal characteristics of the mediators on the probability of settlement, percentage of issues resolved in mediation, movement or compromising behavior, and the tendency to hold back concessions in mediation. The results indicate that the change in the impasse procedure had a marginal affect on the probability of settlement in the small to medium cities in the sample but little or no effect on the larger cities. Furthermore, a number of other measures of the sources of impasse and mediator strategies and characteristics had a stronger impact on the effectiveness of the mediation process than the nature of the impasse procedure.

Evaluating the impact of three incentive programs on the economics of cofiring willow biomass with coal in New York State

Energy Policy ◽  
2005 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 337-347 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pradeep J Tharakan ◽  
Timothy A Volk ◽  
Christopher A Lindsey ◽  
Lawrence P Abrahamson ◽  
Edwin H White
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York State ◽  
York State ◽  
Incentive Programs ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Heterogeneous Impact of Geographic Barriers on Provider Choice Evidence from New York County’s Health Market

2018 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 23-45
Author(s):  
Lee Jae Bok ◽  
Roh Chul-young ◽  
Woolley Jonathan A
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Low Socioeconomic Status ◽  
Health Informatics ◽  
Choice Model ◽  
New York State ◽  
Low Socioeconomic ◽  
Geographic Barriers ◽  
Health Market ◽  
York County ◽  
Using Data

Health services should be accessible regardless of citizens’ gender, age, race, or insurance type, and geographic barriers should not interfere with this access. This article aims to assess the heterogeneous impacts of geographic barriers on inpatients’ hospital choices and to examine whether they vary according inpatients’ socioeconomic or insurance status. Using data on providers and inpatients obtained from the New York State Bureau of Health Informatics Office of Quality and Patient Safety for New York County (New York City’s borough of Manhattan) for 2009, we employed a discrete choice model. Our findings reveal that geographic barriers limit inpatients’ choices of hospitals more when they are of low socioeconomic status.

The impact of snowfall on crashes, traffic volume, and revenue on the New York State Thruway

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
David A. Call ◽  
Guy A. Flynt
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York State ◽  
Traffic Volume ◽  
Crash Risk ◽  
York State ◽  
Inclement Weather ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Fatal Crashes ◽  
Traffic Volumes ◽  
The Impact

AbstractSnow has numerous effects on traffic, including reduced traffic volumes, greater crash risk, and increased travel times. This research examines how snow affects crash risk, traffic volume, and toll revenue on the New York State Thruway. Daily data from January for a ten-year period (2010-2019) were analyzed for the Thruway from the Pennsylvania state line in western New York to Syracuse.Anywhere from 35-50 percent of crashes are associated with inclement weather, with smaller impacts, proportionally, in areas with greater traffic volumes. As expected, snow was almost always involved when weather was a factor. “Unsafe speed” was the most common cause of crashes in inclement weather with all other factors (e.g., animals, drowsiness) much less likely to play a role. The percentage of crashes resulting in an injury did not change significantly with inclement conditions when compared to crashes occurring in fair conditions, and there were too few fatal crashes to make any inferences about them.Daily snowfall rates predicted about 30 percent of the variation in crash numbers, with every 5.1 cm of snowfall resulting in an additional crash, except in Buffalo where 5.1 cm of snow resulted in an additional 2.6 crashes. Confirming earlier results, daily snowfall had a large impact on passenger vehicle counts while commercial vehicle counts were less affected. Revenue data showed a similar pattern, with passenger revenue typically decreasing by 3-5 percent per 2.5 cm of snow, while commercial revenue decreases were 1-4 percent per 2.5 cm of snow.

Social Work Perspective

PEDIATRICS ◽  
1989 ◽  
Vol 83 (5) ◽  
pp. 903-905
Author(s):  
Sandra Hernandez
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Chronic Illness ◽  
Sickle Cell Disease ◽  
Newborn Screening ◽  
Sickle Cell ◽  
New York State ◽  
Early Years ◽  
Cell Disease ◽  
York State ◽  
The Impact

The ultimate objective of newborn screening for sickle cell disease should be twofold. The first essential step is the identification of the infants at risk. This has been effectively done in New York state as of 1975 through the New York State Newborn Screening Program. However, identifying these children is not enough. Second is the much more complicated task of providing comprehensive follow-up care for families whose children are affected by the disease, including the much needed psychosocial services. This area continues to be sorely neglected. The increased risk of death due to overwhelming infection in the first 3 years of life for children with sickle cell disease has been noted in the literature. When there is no specialized care, 15% to 20% do not survive. Therefore, it is essential for knowledgeable staff to make contact and begin to develop a trusting relationship as soon as possible with parents of infants born with sickle cell disease. Prophylactic penicillin and pneumococcal vaccination can reduce mortality during the early years. Family involvement with a consistent, available team of health care providers is pivotal in understanding this chronic illness and coping effectively with this extraordinary stress. Our staff is available by telephone for consultations with patients or other medical staff during clinic and emergency room visits and hospitalizations. One element that is clear in our experience at the St Luke's-Roosevelt Hospital Sickle Cell Center in New York City is that adjustment to this chronic illness is a lifelong process. One or two counseling sessions at the time of diagnosis are not sufficient to enable families to fully understand the information given or to realize the impact of having a child with a chronic illness.

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