Southern Blight of Perennial Swallowwort (Vincetoxicum spp.) in New York

Pale swallowwort [Vincetoxicum rossicum (Kleopow) Barbar.] and black swallowwort [Vincetoxicum nigrum (L.) Moench] are invasive perennial viny milkweeds that have become prevalent across natural and managed habitats in northeastern North America. Southern blight of V. rossicum caused by the fungus, Athelia rolfsii (Curzi) C. C. Tu & Kimbr., was reported at a New York county park in 2008, resulting in a decline in V. rossicum stands. The disease outbreak and persistence of the pathogen highlighted the potential of A. rolfsii for Vincetoxicum spp. control. To better characterize A. rolfsii’s pathogenicity and biology, we studied virulence to adult Vincetoxicum spp., spatiotemporal attributes of the Southern blight epidemic at the discovery site over four years, and sclerotial survival over two years. Disease incidence and severity were high for both Vincetoxicum spp. in misting chamber experiments. The spatiotemporal spread patterns of Southern blight in V. rossicum suggest the epidemic in the first year of monitoring (2016) was already highly aggregated and that subsequent spread was limited and resulted in significant local aggregation. Sclerotial survival studies at two locations (Pittsford and Ithaca, New York) demonstrated the A. rolfsii isolates can overwinter in upstate New York and are pathogenic to Vincetoxicum spp. the subsequent season. However, shallow burial of sclerotia more rapidly reduced survival compared with placement on the soil surface. Overwinter survival of A. rolfsii sclerotia in New York is notable as this pathogen is typically associated with sub-tropical and tropical regions. Broadcast applications of the pathogen would be needed for widespread Vincetoxicum control at a site, but even restricting releases to select locations would not prevent pathogen movement off-site via water or machinery. The known risks of the A. rolfsii isolate to other broadleaf plants in natural and agricultural settings suggest a low feasibility of use for the biological control of Vincetoxicum spp.

Spatio-temporal modelling of tick life-stage count data with spatially varying coefficients

There is a vast amount of geo-referenced data in many fields of study including ecological studies. Geo-referencing is usually by point referencing; that is, latitudes and longitudes or by areal referencing, which includes districts, counties, states, provinces and other administrative units. The availability of large geo-referenced datasets for modelling has necessitated the development and application of spatial statistical methods. However, spatial varying coefficients models exploring the abundance of tick counts remain limited. In this study we used data that was collected and prepared by researchers in the Department of Biological Sciences from the Old Dominion University, Virginia, USA. We modelled tick life-stage counts and abundance variability from 12 sampling locations, with 5 different habitats (numbered 1-5), three habitat types; namely: woods, edges and grass; collected monthly from May 2009 through December 2018. Spatio-temporal Poisson and spatio-temporal negative binomial (NB) count data models were fitted to the data and compared using the deviance information criteria (DIC). The NB model outperformed the Poisson models with all its DIC values being smaller than those of the Poisson model. Results showed that the covariates varied spatially across counties. There was a decreasing time (in years) effect over the study period. However, even though the time effect was decreasing over the study period, space-time interaction effects were seen to be increasing over time in York County.

Does Medicaid expansion influence county health spending? A case of New York counties

We investigated the impacts of Medicaid expansion on New York county total health spending and specifics of health spending, including health services, public health facilities and public health administration. Little research considered the financial effect of Medicaid expansion on local governments while well reported are its influences on uninsured rates and health services utilization. New York counties have contributed to health in their boundaries by providing or funding public health services, and supporting a part of the non-federal share of Medicaid expenditures and uncompensated care. Medicaid expansion can reduce the size of county expenditures for health by enrolling more previously uninsured population in the program and offering more generous federal funding for the expanded Medicaid. We offer empirical evidence that Medicaid expansion was associated with reduced county health spending.

Impact of government policies on Sustainable Petroleum Supply Chain (SPSC): A case study – Part II (The State of Nebraska)

The accompanying part I (Ghahremanlou and Kubiak 2020) developed the Lean Model (LM), a two-stage stochastic programming model which incorporates Renewable Fuel Standard 2 (RFS2), Tax Credits, Tariffs, and Blend Wall (BW), to study the policy impact on the Sustainable Petroleum Supply Chain (SPSC) using cellulosic ethanol. The model enables us to study the impact by running computational experiments more efficiently and consequently by arriving at robust managerial insights much faster. In this paper, we present a case study of the policy impact on the SPSC in the State of Nebraska using the model. The case study uses available real-life data. The study shows that increasing RFS2 does not impact the amount of ethanol blended with gasoline but it might lead to bankruptcy of the refineries. We recommend that the government consider increasing the BW because of its positive economic, environmental and social impacts. For the same reason, we recommend that the tax credit for blending the US produced ethanol with gasoline be at least 0:189 $/gal and the tariff for imported ethanol be at least 1:501 $/gal. These also make the State independent from foreign ethanol thereby enhancing its energy security. Finally, the change in policy impacts the SPSC itself, most importantly it influences the strategic decisions, however setting up a bio-refinery at York county and a blending site at Douglas county emerge as the most robust location decisions against the policy change in the study.

On Machine Learning-Based Short-Term Adjustment of Epidemiological Projections of COVID-19 in US

Epidemiological models have provided valuable information for the outlook of COVID-19 pandemic and relative impact of different mitigation scenarios. However, more accurate forecasts are often needed at near term for planning and staffing. We present our early results from a systemic analysis of short-term adjustment of epidemiological modeling of COVID 19 pandemic in US during March-April 2020. Our analysis includes the importance of various types of features for short term adjustment of the predictions. In addition, we explore the potential of data augmentation to address the data limitation for an emerging pandemic. Following published literature, we employ data augmentation via clustering of regions and evaluate a number of clustering strategies to identify early patterns from the data. From our early analysis, we used CovidActNow as our underlying epidemiological model and found that the most impactful features for the one-day prediction horizon are population density, workers in commuting flow, number of deaths in the day prior to prediction date, and the autoregressive features of new COVID-19 cases from three previous dates of the prediction. Interestingly, we also found that counties clustered with New York County resulted in best preforming model with maximum of R2= 0.90 and minimum of R2= 0.85 for state-based and COVID-based clustering strategy, respectively.

Negotiating Partisanship

After New York women won the vote in 1917, many joined political party clubs and some ran for office. In the 1920s, only a few won seats in the state legislature, and only one served more than one term. A few women won other posts—register of New York County and alderwoman—and a few others won appointive government and judicial posts. Local and state political party committees elected women as officers. These small victories encouraged other women to keep trying. The obstacles to women’s political success in the first decade after suffrage remained high, however. Some suffragists were ambivalent toward partisanship and discouraged women from being active party members; party men remained prejudiced against women politicians and government officials. In the 1920s African American women and Socialists had no electoral success at all.