scholarly journals Modeling quarantine during epidemics and mass-testing using drones

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonid Sedov ◽  
Alexander Krasnochub ◽  
Valentin Polishchuk
Keyword(s):  
Differential Equations ◽  
Metropolitan Area ◽  
Extended Model ◽  
Epidemic Spread ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Peak Number ◽  
Infected Population ◽  
Sir Epidemic ◽  
Spread Model ◽  
Over Time

We extend the classical SIR epidemic spread model by introducing the “quarantined” compartment. We solve (numerically) the differential equations that govern the extended model and quantify how quarantining “flattens the curve” for the proportion of infected population over time. Furthermore, we explore the potential of using drones to deliver tests, enabling mass-testing for the infection; we give a method to estimate the drone fleet needed to deliver the tests in a metropolitan area. Application of our models to COVID-19 spread in Sweden shows how the proposed methods could substantially decrease the peak number of infected people, almost without increasing the duration of the epidemic.

scholarly journals COVID-19 em Londrina-PR: Modelo SEIR com Otimização de Parâmetros

2021 ◽  
Vol 42 (1 Supl) ◽  
pp. 45
Author(s):  
Eliandro Rodrigues Cirilo ◽  
Paulo Laerte Natti ◽  
Pedro Henrique Valério de Godoi ◽  
Andina Lerma ◽  
Vitor Matias ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Differential Equations ◽  
Parameter Optimization ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Optimization Technique ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Present Moment ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Transmission Rates ◽  
City Hall ◽  
Over Time

The first cases of COVID-19 in Londrina-PR were manifested in March 2020 and the disease lasts until the present moment. We aim to inform citizens in a scientific way about how the disease spreads. The present work seeks to describe the behavior of the disease over time. We started from a compartmental model of ordinary differential equations like SEIR to find relevant information such as: transmission rates and prediction of the peak of infected people. We used the data released by city hall of Londrina to carry out simulations in periods of 14 days, applying a parameter optimization technique to obtain results with thegreatest possible credibility.

scholarly journals Population migration, spread of COVID-19, and epidemic prevention and control: empirical evidence from China

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhen Hu ◽  
Yuanyang Wu ◽  
Mohan Su ◽  
Lin Xie ◽  
Anqi Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Population Migration ◽  
Epidemic Spread ◽  
Susceptible Population ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Related Data ◽  
Infected Population ◽  
And Control

Abstract Background This study applied the susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) model to analyze and simulate the transmission mechanisms of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China. Methods The population migration was embedded in the SEIR model to simulate and analyze the effects of the amount of population inflow on the number of confirmed cases. Based on numerical simulations, this study used statistical data for the empirical validation of its theoretical deductions and discussed how to improve the effectiveness of epidemic prevention and control considering population migration variables. Statistics regarding the numbers of infected people in various provinces were obtained from the epidemic-related data reported by China’s National Health Commission. Results This study explored how the epidemic should be prevented and controlled from the perspective of population migration variables. It found that the combination of a susceptible population, an infected population, and transmission media were important routes affecting the number of infections and that the migration of a Hubei-related infected population played a key role in promoting epidemic spread. Epidemic prevention and control should focus on regions with better economic conditions than the epidemic region. Prevention and control efforts should focus on the more populated neighboring provinces having convenient transportation links with the epidemic region. To prevent and control epidemic spread, priority should be given to elucidating the destinations and directions of population migration from the domestic origin of infections, and then controlling population migration or human-to-human contact after such migration. Conclusions This study enriched and expanded on simulations of the effects of population migration on the COVID-19 epidemic and China-based empirical studies while offering an epidemic evaluation and warning mechanism to prevent and control similar public health emergencies in the future.

scholarly journals Population migration, spread of COVID-19, and epidemic prevention and control: empirical evidence from China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhen Hu ◽  
Yuanyang Wu ◽  
Hualei Yang ◽  
Xie Lin ◽  
Anqi Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Population Migration ◽  
Epidemic Spread ◽  
Susceptible Population ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Related Data ◽  
Infected Population ◽  
And Control

Abstract Background: This study applied the SEIR model to analyze and simulate the transmission mechanisms of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China. Methods: The population migration was embedded in the SEIR model to simulate and analyze the effects of the amount of population inflow on the number of confirmed cases. Based on numerical simulations, this study used statistical data for the empirical validation of its theoretical deductions and discussed how to improve the effectiveness of epidemic prevention and control considering population migration variables. Statistics regarding the numbers of infected people in various provinces were obtained from the epidemic-related data reported by China’s National Health Commission.Results: This study explored how the epidemic should be prevented and controlled from the perspective of population migration variables. It found that a combination of a susceptible population, an infected population, and transmission media was an important route affecting the number of infections and that the migration of a Hubei-related infected population played a key role in promoting epidemic spread. Epidemic prevention and control should focus on regions with better economic conditions than the epidemic region. Prevention and control efforts should focus on the more populated neighboring provinces having convenient transportation links with the epidemic region. To prevent and control epidemic spread, priority should be given to elucidating the destinations and directions of population migration from the domestic origin of infections, and then stemming population migration or human-to-human contact after such migration. Conclusions: This study enriched and expanded on simulations of the effects of population migration on the COVID-19 epidemic and China-based empirical studies while offering an epidemic evaluation and warning mechanism to prevent and control similar public health emergencies in the future.

scholarly journals Population migration, spread of COVID-19, and epidemic prevention and control: empirical evidence from China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhen Hu ◽  
Yuanyang Wu ◽  
Hualei Yang ◽  
Xie Lin ◽  
Anqi Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Population Migration ◽  
Epidemic Spread ◽  
Susceptible Population ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Related Data ◽  
Infected Population ◽  
And Control

Abstract Background: This study applied the SEIR model to analyze and simulate the transmission mechanisms of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China. Methods: The population migration was embedded in the SEIR model to simulate and analyze the effects of the amount of population inflow on the number of confirmed cases. Based on numerical simulations, this study used statistical data for the empirical validation of its theoretical deductions and discussed how to improve the effectiveness of epidemic prevention and control considering population migration variables. Statistics regarding the numbers of infected people in various provinces were obtained from the epidemic-related data reported by China’s National Health Commission.Results: This study explored how the epidemic should be prevented and controlled from the perspective of population migration variables. It found that a combination of a susceptible population, an infected population, and transmission media was an important route affecting the number of infections and that the migration of a Hubei-related infected population played a key role in promoting epidemic spread. Epidemic prevention and control should focus on regions with better economic conditions than the epidemic region. Prevention and control efforts should focus on the more populated neighboring provinces having convenient transportation links with the epidemic region. To prevent and control epidemic spread, priority should be given to elucidating the destinations and directions of population migration from the domestic origin of infections, and then stemming population migration or human-to-human contact after such migration. Conclusions: This study enriched and expanded on simulations of the effects of population migration on the COVID-19 epidemic and China-based empirical studies while offering an epidemic evaluation and warning mechanism to prevent and control similar public health emergencies in the future.

scholarly journals Thirty-Day Laboratory-Based Surveillance for Carbapenem-Resistant Enterobacteriaceae in the Minneapolis-St. Paul Metropolitan Area

2014 ◽  
Vol 35 (4) ◽  
pp. 423-425 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edwin C. Pereira ◽  
Kristin M. Shaw ◽  
Paula M. Snippes Vagnone ◽  
Jane E. Harper ◽  
Alexander J. Kallen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Metropolitan Area ◽  
The United States ◽  
Carbapenem Resistant ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Carbapenem Resistant Enterobacteriaceae

Carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) are a growing problem in the United States. We explored the feasibility of active laboratory-based surveillance of CRE in a metropolitan area not previously considered to be an area of CRE endemicity. We provide a framework to address CRE surveillance and to monitor changes in the incidence of CRE infection over time.

scholarly journals A Stochastic SIR Epidemic System with a Nonlinear Relapse

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali El Myr ◽  
Abdelaziz Assadouq ◽  
Lahcen Omari ◽  
Adel Settati ◽  
Aadil Lahrouz
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulations ◽  
Stationary Distribution ◽  
Stochastic Perturbations ◽  
Sir Epidemic ◽  
Spread Model ◽  
Stochastic Sir ◽  
Theoretical Results

We investigate the conditions that control the extinction and the existence of a unique stationary distribution of a nonlinear mathematical spread model with stochastic perturbations in a population of varying size with relapse. Numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the theoretical results.

scholarly journals On attracting sets in artificial networks: cross activation

2018 ◽  
Vol 16 ◽  
pp. 01005
Author(s):  
Felix Sadyrbaev
Keyword(s):  
Dynamical Systems ◽  
Differential Equations ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Ordinary Differential Equations ◽  
Critical Points ◽  
Regulatory Networks ◽  
Main Diagonal ◽  
Sigmoidal Function ◽  
Genomic Regulatory Networks ◽  
Over Time

Mathematical models of artificial networks can be formulated in terms of dynamical systems describing the behaviour of a network over time. The interrelation between nodes (elements) of a network is encoded in the regulatory matrix. We consider a system of ordinary differential equations that describes in particular also genomic regulatory networks (GRN) and contains a sigmoidal function. The results are presented on attractors of such systems for a particular case of cross activation. The regulatory matrix is then of particular form consisting of unit entries everywhere except the main diagonal. We show that such a system can have not more than three critical points. At least n–1 eigenvalues corresponding to any of the critical points are negative. An example for a particular choice of sigmoidal function is considered.

Elaboration of stochastic models to comprehensive evaluation of occupational risks in complex dynamic systems

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (104) ◽  
pp. 31-41
Author(s):  
A.P. Bochkovskyi
Keyword(s):  
Differential Equations ◽  
Markov Processes ◽  
Stochastic Models ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
System Of Differential Equations ◽  
Partial Derivatives ◽  
Occupational Risks ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Negative Factors ◽  
Over Time

Purpose: Elaborate stochastic models to comprehensive evaluation of occupational risks in “man - machine - environment” systems taking into account the random and dynamic nature of the impact on the employee of negative factors over time. Design/methodology/approach: Within study, the methods of probability theory and the theory of Markov processes - to find the limit distribution of the random process of dynamic impact on the employee of negative factors over time and obtain main rates against which the level of occupational risks within the "man - machine - environment" systems can be comprehensively evaluated; Erlang phases method, Laplace transform, difference equations theory, method of mathematical induction - to elaborate a method of analytical solution of the appropriate limit task for a system of differential equations in partial derivatives and appropriate limit conditions were used. Findings: A system of differential equations in partial derivatives and relevant limit conditions is derived, which allowed to identify the following main rates for comprehensive evaluation of occupational risks in systems "man - machine - environment": probability of excess the limit of the employee's accumulation of negative impact of the harmful production factor; probability of the employee’s injury of varying severity in a random time. An method to the solution the limit task for a system of differential equations, which allows to provide a lower bounds of the probability of a certain occupational danger occurrence was elaborated. Research limitations/implications: The elaborated approach to injury risk evaluation is designed to predict cases of non-severe injuries. At the same time, this approach allows to consider more severe cases too, but in this case the task will be more difficult. Practical implications: The use of the elaborated models allows to apply a systematic approach to the evaluation of occupational risks in enterprises and to increase the objectivity of the evaluation results by taking into account the real characteristics of the impact of negative factors on the employee over time. Originality/value: For the first time, a special subclass of Markov processes - Markov drift processes was proposed and substantiated for use to comprehensive evaluation of occupational risks in “man - machine - environment” systems.

Ten Years of Improving Acute Stroke Management in a Metropolitan Area: A Population-Based Quantification of Quality Indicators

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Anna Alegiani ◽  
Michael Rosenkranz ◽  
Leonie Schmitz ◽  
Susanne Lezius ◽  
Günter Seidel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Acute Stroke ◽  
Quality Indicators ◽  
Metropolitan Area ◽  
Stroke Care ◽  
Care Quality ◽  
Acute Stroke Care ◽  
Stroke Units ◽  
Stroke Treatment ◽  
Acute Stroke Treatment ◽  
Over Time

<b><i>Background and Purpose:</i></b> Rapid access to acute stroke treatment improves clinical outcomes in patients with ischemic stroke. We aimed to shorten the time to admission and to acute stroke treatment for patients with acute stroke in the Hamburg metropolitan area by collaborative multilevel measures involving all hospitals with stroke units, the Emergency Medical Services (EMS), and health-care authorities. <b><i>Methods:</i></b> In 2007, an area-wide stroke care quality project was initiated. The project included mandatory admission of all stroke patients in Hamburg exclusively to hospitals with stroke units, harmonized acute treatment algorithms among all hospitals, repeated training of the EMS staff, a multimedia educational campaign, and a mandatory stroke care quality monitoring system based on structured data assessment and quality indicators for procedural measures. We analyzed data of all patients with acute stroke who received inhospital treatment in the city of Hamburg during the evaluation period from the quality assurance database data and evaluated trends of key quality indicators over time. <b><i>Results:</i></b> From 2007 to 2016, a total of 83,395 patients with acute stroke were registered. During this period, the proportion of patients admitted within ≤3 h from symptom onset increased over time from 27.8% in 2007 to 35.2% in 2016 (<i>p</i> &#x3c; 0.001). The proportion of patients who received rapid thrombolysis (within ≤30 min after admission) increased from 7.7 to 54.1% (<i>p</i> &#x3c; 0.001). <b><i>Conclusions:</i></b> Collaborative stroke care quality projects are suitable and effective to improve acute stroke care.

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