scholarly journals Estimates of COVID-19 case-fatality risk from individual-level data

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simona Bignami-Van Assche ◽  
Daniela Ghio ◽  
Ari Van Assche
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality ◽  
Event History ◽  
Canadian Province ◽  
Fatality Risk ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
The World ◽  
Simple Ratio ◽  
Case Fatality Risk ◽  
True Measure

ABSTRACTWhen calculated from aggregate data on confirmed cases and deaths, the case-fatality risk (CFR) is a simple ratio between the former and the latter, which is prone to numerous biases. With individual-level data, the CFR can be estimated as a true measure of risk as the proportion of incidence for the disease. We present the first estimates of the CFR for COVID-19 by age and sex based on event history modelling of the risk of dying among confirmed positive individuals in the Canadian province of Ontario, which maintains one of the few individual-level datasets on COVID-19 in the world.

scholarly journals Estimating age-specific COVID-19 fatality risk and time to death by comparing population diagnosis and death patterns: Australian data

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ian C. Marschner
Keyword(s):  
Age Groups ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Specific Model ◽  
Fatality Risk ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Time To Death ◽  
History Of ◽  
Case Fatality Risk ◽  
Dynamics Models

Abstract Background Mortality is a key component of the natural history of COVID-19 infection. Surveillance data on COVID-19 deaths and case diagnoses are widely available in the public domain, but they are not used to model time to death because they typically do not link diagnosis and death at an individual level. This paper demonstrates that by comparing the unlinked patterns of new diagnoses and deaths over age and time, age-specific mortality and time to death may be estimated using a statistical method called deconvolution. Methods Age-specific data were analysed on 816 deaths among 6235 cases over age 50 years in Victoria, Australia, from the period January through December 2020. Deconvolution was applied assuming logistic dependence of case fatality risk (CFR) on age and a gamma time to death distribution. Non-parametric deconvolution analyses stratified into separate age groups were used to assess the model assumptions. Results It was found that age-specific CFR rose from 2.9% at age 65 years (95% CI:2.2 – 3.5) to 40.0% at age 95 years (CI: 36.6 – 43.6). The estimated mean time between diagnosis and death was 18.1 days (CI: 16.9 – 19.3) and showed no evidence of varying by age (heterogeneity P = 0.97). The estimated 90% percentile of time to death was 33.3 days (CI: 30.4 – 36.3; heterogeneity P = 0.85). The final age-specific model provided a good fit to the observed age-stratified mortality patterns. Conclusions Deconvolution was demonstrated to be a powerful analysis method that could be applied to extensive data sources worldwide. Such analyses can inform transmission dynamics models and CFR assessment in emerging outbreaks. Based on these Australian data it is concluded that death from COVID-19 occurs within three weeks of diagnosis on average but takes five weeks in 10% of fatal cases. Fatality risk is negligible in the young but rises above 40% in the elderly, while time to death does not seem to vary by age.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Fatality and Comorbidity Risk Factors among Diagnosed Patients in Mexico

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patricio Solís ◽  
Hiram Carreño
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Fatality Risk ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Younger Age ◽  
High Prevalence ◽  
Right Censorship

AbstractAs of April 18, 2020, 2.16 million patients in the world had been tested positive with Coronavirus (COVID-19) and 146,088 had died, which accounts for a case fatality rate of 6.76%. In Mexico, according to official statistics (April 18), 7,497 cases have been confirmed with 650 deaths, for a case fatality rate of 8.67%. These estimates, however, may not reflect the final fatality risk among COVID-19 confirmed patients, because they are based on cross-sectional counts of diagnosed and deceased patients, and therefore are not adjusted by time of exposure and right-censorship. In this paper we estimate fatality risks based on survival analysis methods, calculated from individual-level data on symptomatic patients confirmed with COVID-19 recently released by the Mexican Ministry of Health. The estimated fatality risk after 35 days of onset of symptoms is 12.38% (95% CI: 11.37-13.47). Fatality risks sharply rise with age, and significantly increase for males (59%) and individuals with comorbidities (38%-168%, depending on the disease). Two reasons may explain the high COVID-19 related fatality risk observed in Mexico, despite its younger age structure: the high selectivity and self-selectivity in testing and the high prevalence of chronic-degenerative diseases.

scholarly journals Dynamics of the pneumonic plague epidemic in Madagascar, August to October 2017

2017 ◽  
Vol 22 (46) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shinya Tsuzuki ◽  
Hyojung Lee ◽  
Fuminari Miura ◽  
Yat Hin Chan ◽  
Sung-mok Jung ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Pneumonic Plague ◽  
Fatality Risk ◽  
Transmission Potential ◽  
The World ◽  
Case Fatality Risk ◽  
Reporting Delay

Transmission potential and severity of pneumonic plague in Madagascar were assessed. Accounting for reporting delay, the reproduction number was estimated at 1.73. The case fatality risk was estimated as 5.5%. Expected numbers of exported cases from Madagascar were estimated across the world and all estimates were below 1 person from August to October, 2017.

scholarly journals Mortality in Escherichia coli bloodstream infections: a multinational population-based cohort study

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Melissa C. MacKinnon ◽  
Scott A. McEwen ◽  
David L. Pearl ◽  
Outi Lyytikäinen ◽  
Gunnar Jacobsson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Escherichia Coli ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Day Case ◽  
Fatality Risk ◽  
E Coli ◽  
Factors Associated ◽  
Case Fatality Risk ◽  
Age And Sex

Abstract Background Escherichia coli is the most common cause of bloodstream infections (BSIs) and mortality is an important aspect of burden of disease. Using a multinational population-based cohort of E. coli BSIs, our objectives were to evaluate 30-day case fatality risk and mortality rate, and determine factors associated with each. Methods During 2014–2018, we identified 30-day deaths from all incident E. coli BSIs from surveillance nationally in Finland, and regionally in Sweden (Skaraborg) and Canada (Calgary, Sherbrooke, western interior). We used a multivariable logistic regression model to estimate factors associated with 30-day case fatality risk. The explanatory variables considered for inclusion were year (2014–2018), region (five areas), age (< 70-years-old, ≥70-years-old), sex (female, male), third-generation cephalosporin (3GC) resistance (susceptible, resistant), and location of onset (community-onset, hospital-onset). The European Union 28-country 2018 population was used to directly age and sex standardize mortality rates. We used a multivariable Poisson model to estimate factors associated with mortality rate, and year, region, age and sex were considered for inclusion. Results From 38.7 million person-years of surveillance, we identified 2961 30-day deaths in 30,923 incident E. coli BSIs. The overall 30-day case fatality risk was 9.6% (2961/30923). Calgary, Skaraborg, and western interior had significantly increased odds of 30-day mortality compared to Finland. Hospital-onset and 3GC-resistant E. coli BSIs had significantly increased odds of mortality compared to community-onset and 3GC-susceptible. The significant association between age and odds of mortality varied with sex, and contrasts were used to interpret this interaction relationship. The overall standardized 30-day mortality rate was 8.5 deaths/100,000 person-years. Sherbrooke had a significantly lower 30-day mortality rate compared to Finland. Patients that were either ≥70-years-old or male both experienced significantly higher mortality rates than those < 70-years-old or female. Conclusions In our study populations, region, age, and sex were significantly associated with both 30-day case fatality risk and mortality rate. Additionally, 3GC resistance and location of onset were significantly associated with 30-day case fatality risk. Escherichia coli BSIs caused a considerable burden of disease from 30-day mortality. When analyzing population-based mortality data, it is important to explore mortality through two lenses, mortality rate and case fatality risk.

Occupational Segregation, Teachers' Wages, and American Economic Growth

1986 ◽  
Vol 46 (2) ◽  
pp. 373-383 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susan B. Carter
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Nineteenth Century ◽  
Young Women ◽  
Teaching Profession ◽  
Educational Services ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Nineteenth Century America ◽  
Level Data ◽  
The World ◽  
Teacher Wages

National, state, and individual-level data are used to explore the implications of the crowding of educated women into the teaching profession in nineteenth-century America. It is found that the more young women attended school, the lower were teacher wages and the price of educational services. Through this mechanism young women paid for their own education and, by lowering the price of educational services, helped America develop the best-educated population in the world by the century's end.

scholarly journals Estimating the Case Fatality Risk of COVID-19 using Cases from Outside China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nick Wilson ◽  
Amanda Kvalsvig ◽  
Lucy Telfar Barnard ◽  
Michael G Baker
Keyword(s):  
Intensive Care ◽  
Intensive Care Units ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Large Uncertainty ◽  
Icu Patients ◽  
Fatality Risk ◽  
Case Fatality Risk ◽  
Respiratory Conditions

AbstractThere is large uncertainty around the case fatality risk (CFR) for COVID-19 in China. Therefore, we considered symptomatic cases outside of China (countries/settings with 20+ cases) and the proportion who are in intensive care units (4.0%, 14/349 on 13 February 2020). Given what is known about CFRs for ICU patients with severe respiratory conditions from a meta-analysis, we estimated a CFR of 1.37% (95%CI: 0.57% to 3.22%) for COVID- 19 cases outside of China.

scholarly journals A Comparison of Case Fatality Risk of COVID-19 between Singapore and Japan

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 3326
Author(s):  
Taishi Kayano ◽  
Hiroshi Nishiura
Keyword(s):  
Age Distribution ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Standardized Mortality Ratio ◽  
Fatality Risk ◽  
Illness Onset ◽  
High Virulence ◽  
Mortality Ratio ◽  
The Many ◽  
Case Fatality Risk ◽  
Protection Against Infection

The crude case fatality risk (CFR) for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Singapore is remarkably small. We aimed to estimate the unbiased CFR by age for Singapore and Japan and compare these estimates by calculating the standardized mortality ratio (SMR). Age-specific CFRs for COVID-19 were estimated in real time, adjusting for the delay from illness onset to death. The SMR in Japan was estimated by using the age distribution of the Singapore population. Among cases aged 60–69 years and 70–79 years, the age-specific CFRs in Singapore were estimated as 1.84% (95% confidence interval: 0.46–4.72%) and 5.57% (1.41–13.97%), respectively, and those in Japan as 5.52% (4.55–6.62%) and 15.49% (13.81–17.27%), respectively. The SMR of COVID-19 in Japan, when compared with Singapore as the baseline, was estimated to be 1.46 (1.09–2.96). The overall CFR for Singapore is lower than that for Japan. It is possible that the circulating variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Singapore causes a milder clinical course of COVID-19 infection compared with other strains. If infection with a low-virulence SARS-CoV-2 variant provides protection against infection by high-virulence strains, the existence of such a strain is encouraging news for the many countries struggling to suppress this virus.

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