scholarly journals Self-Burnout – A New Path to the End of COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
B Shayak ◽  
Richard H Rand
Keyword(s):  
Social Mobility ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
The Self ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Actual Number ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
First Order ◽  
The Social ◽  
Linear Delay ◽  
Delay Differential

ABSTRACTIn this work we use mathematical modeling to describe a possible route to the end of COVID-19, which does not feature either vaccination or herd immunity. We call this route self-burnout. We consider a region with (a) no influx of corona cases from the outside, (b) extensive social distancing, though not necessarily a full lockdown, and (c) high testing capacity relative to the actual number of new cases per day. These conditions can make it possible for the region to initiate the endgame phase of epidemic management, wherein the disease is slowly made to burn itself out through a combination of social distancing, sanitization, contact tracing and preventive testing. The dynamics of the case trajectories in this regime are governed by a single-variable first order linear delay differential equation, whose stability criterion can be obtained analytically. Basis this criterion, we conclude that the social mobility restrictions should be such as to ensure that on the average, one person interacts closely (from the transmission viewpoint) with at most one other person over a 4-5 day period. If the endgame can be played out for a long enough time, we claim that the Coronavirus can eventually get completely contained without affecting a significant fraction of the region’s population. We present estimates of the duration for which the epidemic is expected to last, finding an interval of approximately 5-15 weeks after the self-burnout phase is initiated. South Korea, Austria, Australia, New Zealand and the states of Goa, Kerala and Odisha in India appear to be well on the way towards containing COVID by this method.

Contagion

2020 ◽  
pp. 72-95
Author(s):  
Mark Davis ◽  
Davina Lohm
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Social Distance ◽  
The Self ◽  
The Other ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Research Participants ◽  
The Social

Contagion is an age-old method of signifying infectious diseases like influenza and is a rich metaphor with strong biopolitical connotations for understandings of social distance, that is, the self as distinct from the other in the sense of space and identity. Contagion is therefore an important metaphor for the social distancing approaches recommended by experts during a pandemic, as was the case in 2009. This chapter, therefore, examines how research participants enacted social distancing as a method for reducing risk. It reflects on how these narratives reflected the meanings of contagion linked with distance, in particular, the notion that threat emerges elsewhere and in the figure of the other.

scholarly journals Global Self-Sufficiency Network-A Collaborative Approach for Addressing Post-COVID-19 Challenges

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Mohamed Buheji ◽  
Ana Vovk Korže ◽  
Sajeda Eidan ◽  
Talal Abdulkareem ◽  
Nikolay Perepelkin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
The Self ◽  
Collaborative Approach ◽  
Social Beliefs ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Self Sufficiency ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Status ◽  
Multi Media

COVID-19 raised lots of issues relevant to the status, the readiness and the capacity of the self-sufficiency of the different communities and countries during conditions of lockdown and requirements for social distancing, during the first four months of the pandemic.An international multidiscipline scholars discussion on zoom, a multi-media conferencing app, is categorised according to the subjects of the self-sufficiency practices that are reflections of the specific attitudes and behaviours that shape the social demands during the COVID-19 pandemic. The scholars discuss the requirements of re-building the self-sufficiency social beliefs which the capital economy destroyed. Based on the methodology of discussion from the different background scholar, the challenges and then the outcome of self-sufficiency projects are defined.

scholarly journals On the oscillation of the solutions to delay and difference equations

2009 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
pp. 173-187
Author(s):  
Khadija Niri ◽  
Ioannis P. Stavroulakis
Keyword(s):  
Differential Equation ◽  
Difference Equation ◽  
Discrete Analogue ◽  
Optimal Conditions ◽  
Nondecreasing Sequence ◽  
Real Numbers ◽  
First Order ◽  
All Solutions ◽  
Linear Delay ◽  
Delay Differential

Abstract Consider the first-order linear delay differential equation xʹ(t) + p(t)x(τ(t)) = 0, t≥ t<sub>0</sub>, (1) where p, τ ∈ C ([t<sub>0</sub>,∞, ℝ<sup>+</sup>, τ(t) is nondecreasing, τ(t) < t for t ≥ t<sup>0</sup> and lim<sub>t→∞</sub> τ(t) = ∞, and the (discrete analogue) difference equation Δx(n) + p(n)x(τ(n)) = 0, n= 0, 1, 2,…, (1)ʹ where Δx(n) = x(n + 1) − x(n), p(n) is a sequence of nonnegative real numbers and τ(n) is a nondecreasing sequence of integers such that τ(n) ≤ n − 1 for all n ≥ 0 and lim<sub>n→∞</sub> τ(n) = ∞. Optimal conditions for the oscillation of all solutions to the above equations are presented.

scholarly journals Human agency and infection rates: Implications for social distancing during epidemics

PLoS ONE ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (12) ◽  
pp. e0243699
Author(s):  
Christopher Bronk Ramsey
Keyword(s):  
Theoretical Model ◽  
Infection Rate ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Specific Level ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Social Settings ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Almost All

Social distancing is an important measure in controlling epidemics. This paper presents a simple theoretical model focussed on the implications of the wide range in interaction rates between individuals, both within the workplace and in social settings. The model is based on well-mixed populations and so is not intended for studying geographic spread. The model shows that epidemic growth rate is largely determined by the upper interactivity quantiles of society, implying that the most efficient methods of epidemic control are interaction capping approaches rather than overall reductions in interaction. The theoretical model can also be applied to look at aspects of the dynamics of epidemic progression under various scenarios. The theoretical model suggests that with no intervention herd immunity would be achieved with a lower overall infection rate than if variation in interaction rate is ignored, because by this stage almost all the most interactive members of society would have had the infection; however the overall mortality with such an approach is very high. Scenarios for mitigation and suppression suggest that, by using interactivity capping, it should be possible to control an epidemic without extreme sanctions on the majority of the population if R0 of the uncontrolled infection is 2.4. However to control the infection rate to a specific level will always require measures to be switched on and off and for this reason elimination is likely to be a less costly policy in the long run. While social distancing alone can be used for elimination, it would not on its own be an efficient mechanism to prevent reinfection. The use of robust testing, quarantining, and contact tracing would strengthen any social distancing measures, speed up elimination, and be a better tool for the prevention of infection or reinfection. Because the analysis presented here is theoretical, and not data-driven, it is intended to be a stimulus for further data-collection, particularly on individual interactivity levels, and for more comprehensive modelling which takes account of the type of heterogeneity discussed here. While there are some clear lessons from the simple model presented here, policy makers should have these tested and validated by epidemiological specialists before acting on them.

scholarly journals New Oscillation and Nonoscillation Criteria for a Class of Linear Delay Differential Equation

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (10) ◽  
pp. 308-313
Keyword(s):  
Differential Equation ◽  
Continuous Function ◽  
Delay Differential Equation ◽  
Sufficient Condition ◽  
First Order ◽  
Linear Delay ◽  
Piecewise Continuous ◽  
Delay Differential ◽  
Oscillation And Nonoscillation Criteria ◽  
Oscillation And Nonoscillation

In this article the authors established sufficient condition for the first order delay differential equation in the form , ( ) where , = and is a non negative piecewise continuous function. Some interesting examples are provided to illustrate the results. Keywords: Oscillation, delay differential equation and bounded. AMS Subject Classification 2010: 39A10 and 39A12.

scholarly journals A pivotal restructuring of modelling the control of COVID-19 during and after massive vaccination for the next few years

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jose B Cruz ◽  
Tirso A Ronquillo ◽  
Ralph G B Sangalang ◽  
Albertson D Amante ◽  
Divina G D Ronquillo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Medical Treatment ◽  
World Wide ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Direct Observations ◽  
Feedback Model ◽  
Corona Virus ◽  
The Social ◽  
One Year

Abstract This paper presents a new mathematical feedback model to demonstrate how direct observations of the epidemiological compartments of population could be mapped to inputs, such that the social spread of the disease is asymptotically subdued. Details of the stabilization and robustness are included. This is a pivotal restructuring of modelling the control of corona virus from the current models in use world-wide which do not utilize feedback of functions of epidemiological compartments of population to construct the inputs. Although several vaccines have received Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) massive vaccination would take several years to reach herd immunity in most countries. Furthermore, the period of efficacy of the vaccination may be approximately one year only resulting in an unending vaccination. Even during the vaccination, there would be an urgent need to control the spread of the virus. When herd immunity is reached and vaccination is discontinued, there would be new surges of the disease. These surges of disease are not possible in appropriately designed stable feedback models. However, extensive testing, contact tracing, and medical treatment of those found infected, must be maintained.

scholarly journals A pivotal restructuring of modelling the control of COVID-19 during and after massive vaccination for the next few years

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jose B Cruz ◽  
Tirso A Ronquillo ◽  
Ralph G B Sangalang ◽  
Albertson D Amante ◽  
Divina G D Ronquillo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Medical Treatment ◽  
World Wide ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Direct Observations ◽  
Feedback Model ◽  
Corona Virus ◽  
The Social ◽  
One Year

Abstract This paper presents a new mathematical feedback model to demonstrate how direct observations of the epidemiological compartments of population could be mapped to inputs, such that the social spread of the disease is asymptotically subdued. Details of the stabilization and robustness are included. This is a pivotal restructuring of modelling the control of corona virus from the current models in use world-wide which do not utilize feedback of functions of epidemiological compartments of population to construct the inputs. Although several vaccines have received Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) massive vaccination would take several years to reach herd immunity in most countries. Furthermore, the period of efficacy of the vaccination may be approximately one year only resulting in an unending vaccination. Even during the vaccination, there would be an urgent need to control the spread of the virus. When herd immunity is reached and vaccination is discontinued, there would be new surges of the disease. These surges of disease are not possible in appropriately designed stable feedback models. However, extensive testing, contact tracing, and medical treatment of those found infected, must be maintained.

scholarly journals A pivotal restructuring of modelling the control of COVID-19 during and after massive vaccination for the next few years

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jose B Cruz ◽  
Tirso A Ronquillo ◽  
Ralph G B Sangalang ◽  
Albertson D Amante ◽  
Divina G D Ronquillo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Medical Treatment ◽  
World Wide ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Direct Observations ◽  
Feedback Model ◽  
Corona Virus ◽  
The Social ◽  
One Year

Abstract This paper presents a new mathematical feedback model to demonstrate how direct observations of the epidemiological compartments of population could be mapped to inputs, such that the social spread of the disease is asymptotically subdued. Details of the stabilization and robustness are included. This is a pivotal restructuring of modelling the control of corona virus from the current models in use world-wide which do not utilize feedback of functions of epidemiological compartments of population to construct the inputs. Although several vaccines have received Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) massive vaccination would take several years to reach herd immunity in most countries. Furthermore, the period of efficacy of the vaccination may be approximately one year only resulting in an unending vaccination. Even during the vaccination, there would be an urgent need to control the spread of the virus. When herd immunity is reached and vaccination is discontinued, there would be new surges of the disease. These surges of disease are not possible in appropriately designed stable feedback models. However, extensive testing, contact tracing, and medical treatment of those found infected, must be maintained.

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