scholarly journals The accelerated infectious disease risk in the Anthropocene: more outbreaks and wider global spread

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Serge Morand ◽  
Bruno A. Walther
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Disease Risk ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Disease Networks ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Climate Crisis ◽  
Human Infectious Disease

The greatly accelerated economic growth during the Anthropocene has resulted in astonishing improvements in many aspects of human well-being, but has also caused the acceleration of risks, such as the interlinked biodiversity and climate crisis. Here, we report on another risk: the accelerated infectious disease risk associated with the number and geographic spread of human infectious disease outbreaks. Using the most complete, reliable, and up-to-date database on human infectious disease outbreaks (GIDEON), we show that the number of disease outbreaks, the number of diseases involved in these outbreaks, and the number of countries affected have increased during the entire Anthropocene. Furthermore, the spatial distribution of these outbreaks is becoming more globalized in the sense that the overall modularity of the disease networks across the globe has decreased, meaning disease outbreaks have become increasingly pandemic in their nature. This decrease in modularity is correlated with the increase in air traffic. We finally show that those countries and regions which are most central within these disease networks tend to be countries with higher GDPs. Therefore, one cost of increased global mobility and greater economic growth is the increased risk of disease outbreaks and their faster and wider spread. We briefly discuss three different scenarios which decision-makers might follow in light of our results.

scholarly journals Emerging infectious disease outbreaks: estimating disease risk in Australian blood donors travelling overseas

Vox Sanguinis ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 113 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Coghlan ◽  
V. C. Hoad ◽  
C. R. Seed ◽  
R. LP. Flower ◽  
R. J. Harley ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Blood Donors ◽  
Disease Risk ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Emerging Infectious Disease ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks

scholarly journals Infectious Disease Risk After the Great East Japan Earthquake

2012 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 741-745 ◽  
Author(s):  
Satoshi Mimura ◽  
◽  
Taro Kamigaki ◽  
Hitoshi Oshitani
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Social Impact ◽  
Disease Risk ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Great East Japan Earthquake ◽  
Public Health Services ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks

Infectious disease outbreaks in postdisaster settings provide significant social impact although those outbreaks do not always occur. It is important to assess the potential risks of infectious disease in each setting. The Great East Japan Earthquake, which occurred March 11, 2011, imposed a huge impact on public health services. After the earthquake and following tsunami, many evacuation centers were sites of crowding as well as poor sanitation conditions because of the large- scale of destruction. Some shelters became sites of infectious disease outbreaks such as influenza and norovirus enteritis, although the size of these outbreaks was quite localized. Improvements in the response to infectious diseases through lessons learned from the Great East Japan Earthquake are expected to be the triggers for improving preparedness for public health emergencies.

scholarly journals Vulnerability assessment tools for infectious threats and antimicrobial resistance: a scoping review protocol

BMJ Open ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. e031944 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maren Jeleff ◽  
Lisa Lehner ◽  
Tamara Giles-Vernick ◽  
Michel L.A. Dückers ◽  
A. David Napier ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Antimicrobial Resistance ◽  
Scoping Review ◽  
Vulnerability Assessment ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Scoping Reviews ◽  
Human Animal

IntroductionThis protocol will guide and explain the working process of a systematic scoping review on vulnerability assessment tools in the field of infectious disease outbreaks and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) crises. The scoping review will appraise existing tools or methodologies to identify local level vulnerabilities in the context of infectious disease outbreaks and AMR. Due to this focus on infectious threats and AMR, the review also considers articles using a ‘One Health’ approach to assess the vulnerability of individuals, groups and practices in human–animal–environment interactions. Given the broad nature of vulnerability, we aim to allocate studies discerning the process of identifying vulnerable or at-risk groups during a crisis, instead of studies taking vulnerability only as a starting point. Because considerable research has been conducted on vulnerability, disasters and climate change, we will also assemble tools developed from these fields. To our knowledge, this is the first planned systematic scoping review of vulnerability assessment tools for disease outbreaks and AMR, taking into account practices at the human–animal–environment interface that can lead to increased risk of exposure of individuals to infections, pathogen spillovers or epidemics.Methods and analysisTo develop the protocol, we used the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Protocols checklist (PRISMA-P 2015) in compliance with the PRISMA Extension for Scoping Reviews Explanation and Elaboration. With the assistance of an experienced research librarian, we developed the search strategy, which targeted the following databases: Medline, Global Health database, Web of Science and Embase. A second strategy was developed for Epistemonikos, African Journals Online and Global Index Medicus because these databases do not provide the infrastructure for an advanced search. We consider studies published between 1978 and 2019 and include articles, book chapters, websites and grey literature from selected non-governmental organisations and non-profit organisations working in the health field. We contact them directly regarding whether they are working with or have developed a vulnerability assessment tool. To address the dynamic nature of our investigation, we develop a flow diagram which we continually update to reflect the selection process. Two reviewers (MJ and LL) independently screen the literature and resolve conflicts through discussion rounds. Data extraction will be conducted by four researchers (MJ, LL, EJ and RK) through inductive and deductive coding. Extracted data will be systematically compared and divergences highlighted.Ethics and disseminationEthical approval is not required because this study does not involve collection of primary data. The purpose of this review is to disseminate a catalogue of vulnerability assessment tools and a brief summary of key results and recommendations for SoNAR-Global partners in Bangladesh, Ukraine and Uganda. The catalogue will be made publicly available. On the basis of our results, SoNAR-Global partners will pilot one of these tools.

scholarly journals Predicting plant disease epidemics from functionally represented weather series

2019 ◽  
Vol 374 (1775) ◽  
pp. 20180273 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. A. Shah ◽  
P. A. Paul ◽  
E. D. De Wolf ◽  
L. V. Madden
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Disease Risk ◽  
Search Algorithm ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Plant Diseases ◽  
Theme Issue ◽  
Weather Patterns ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Disease Epidemics

Epidemics are often triggered by specific weather patterns favouring the pathogen on susceptible hosts. For plant diseases, models predicting epidemics have therefore often emphasized the identification of early season weather patterns that are correlated with a disease outcome at some later point. Toward that end, window-pane analysis is an exhaustive search algorithm traditionally used in plant pathology for mining correlations in a weather series with respect to a disease endpoint. Here we show, with reference to Fusarium head blight (FHB) of wheat, that a functional approach is a more principled analytical method for understanding the relationship between disease epidemics and environmental conditions over an extended time series. We used scalar-on-function regression to model a binary outcome (FHB epidemic or non-epidemic) relative to weather time series spanning 140 days relative to flowering (when FHB infection primarily occurs). The functional models overall fit the data better than previously described standard logistic regression (lr) models. Periods much earlier than heretofore realized were associated with FHB epidemics. The findings were used to create novel weather summary variables which, when incorporated into lr models, yielded a new set of models that performed as well as existing lr models for real-time predictions of disease risk. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes’. This issue is linked with the subsequent theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control’.

scholarly journals A new mechanistic model of weather-dependent Septoria tritici blotch disease risk

2019 ◽  
Vol 374 (1775) ◽  
pp. 20180266 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas M. Chaloner ◽  
Helen N. Fones ◽  
Varun Varma ◽  
Daniel P. Bebber ◽  
Sarah J. Gurr
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Disease Risk ◽  
Mechanistic Model ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Septoria Tritici Blotch ◽  
Septoria Tritici ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Theme Issue ◽  
Zymoseptoria Tritici ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks

We present a new mechanistic model for predicting Septoria tritici blotch (STB) disease, parameterized with experimentally derived data for temperature- and wetness-dependent germination, growth and death of the causal agent, Zymoseptoria tritici . The output of this model (A) was compared with observed disease data for UK wheat over the period 2002–2016. In addition, we compared the output of a second model (B), in which experimentally derived parameters were replaced by a modified version of a published Z. tritici thermal performance equation, with the same observed disease data. Neither model predicted observed annual disease, but model A was able to differentiate UK regions with differing average disease risks over the entire period. The greatest limitations of both models are: broad spatial resolution of the climate data, and lack of host parameters. Model B is further limited by its lack of explicitly defined pathogen death, leading to a cumulative overestimation of disease over the course of the growing season. Comparison of models A and B demonstrates the importance of accounting for the temperature-dependency of pathogen processes important in the initiation and progression of disease. However, effective modelling of STB will probably require similar experimentally derived parameters for host and environmental factors, completing the disease triangle. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes’. This issue is linked with the subsequent theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control’.

scholarly journals Experiences and management of physician psychological symptoms during infectious disease outbreaks: a rapid review

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kirsten M. Fiest ◽  
Jeanna Parsons Leigh ◽  
Karla D. Krewulak ◽  
Kara M. Plotnikoff ◽  
Laryssa G. Kemp ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Psychological Health ◽  
Full Text ◽  
Influenza A ◽  
Psychological Symptoms ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Early Career ◽  
Rapid Review ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks

Abstract Background Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, physicians experienced unprecedented levels of burnout. The uncertainty of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic along with increased workload and difficult medical triage decisions may lead to a further decline in physician psychological health. Methods We searched Medline, EMBASE, and PsycINFO for primary research from database inception (Medline [1946], EMBASE [1974], PsycINFO [1806]) to November 17, 2020. Titles and abstracts were screened by one of three reviewers and full-text article screening and data abstraction were conducted independently, and in duplicate, by three reviewers. Results From 6223 unique citations, 480 articles were reviewed in full-text, with 193 studies (of 90,499 physicians) included in the final review. Studies reported on physician psychological symptoms and management during seven infectious disease outbreaks (severe acute respiratory syndrome [SARS], three strains of Influenza A virus [H1N1, H5N1, H7N9], Ebola, Middle East respiratory syndrome [MERS], and COVID-19) in 57 countries. Psychological symptoms of anxiety (14.3–92.3%), stress (11.9–93.7%), depression (17–80.5%), post-traumatic stress disorder (13.2–75.2%) and burnout (14.7–76%) were commonly reported among physicians, regardless of infectious disease outbreak or country. Younger, female (vs. male), single (vs. married), early career physicians, and those providing direct care to infected patients were associated with worse psychological symptoms. Interpretation Physicians should be aware that psychological symptoms of anxiety, depression, fear and distress are common, manifest differently and self-management strategies to improve psychological well-being exist. Health systems should implement short and long-term psychological supports for physicians caring for patients with COVID-19.

scholarly journals Infectious disease outbreaks in the African region: overview of events reported to the World Health Organization in 2018

2019 ◽  
Vol 147 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Mboussou ◽  
P. Ndumbi ◽  
R. Ngom ◽  
Z. Kassamali ◽  
O. Ogundiran ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Disease Onset ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
World Health ◽  
African Region ◽  
Regional Office ◽  
Member States ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks ◽  
The World

Abstract The WHO African region is characterised by the largest infectious disease burden in the world. We conducted a retrospective descriptive analysis using records of all infectious disease outbreaks formally reported to the WHO in 2018 by Member States of the African region. We analysed the spatio-temporal distribution, the notification delay as well as the morbidity and mortality associated with these outbreaks. In 2018, 96 new disease outbreaks were reported across 36 of the 47 Member States. The most commonly reported disease outbreak was cholera which accounted for 20.8% (n = 20) of all events, followed by measles (n = 11, 11.5%) and Yellow fever (n = 7, 7.3%). About a quarter of the outbreaks (n = 23) were reported following signals detected through media monitoring conducted at the WHO regional office for Africa. The median delay between the disease onset and WHO notification was 16 days (range: 0–184). A total of 107 167 people were directly affected including 1221 deaths (mean case fatality ratio (CFR): 1.14% (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.07%–1.20%)). The highest CFR was observed for diseases targeted for eradication or elimination: 3.45% (95% CI 0.89%–10.45%). The African region remains prone to outbreaks of infectious diseases. It is therefore critical that Member States improve their capacities to rapidly detect, report and respond to public health events.

scholarly journals Statistical methods for the prospective detection of infectious disease outbreaks: a review

2011 ◽  
Vol 175 (1) ◽  
pp. 49-82 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steffen Unkel ◽  
C. Paddy Farrington ◽  
Paul H. Garthwaite ◽  
Chris Robertson ◽  
Nick Andrews
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Statistical Methods ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks

Abstract P087: Association of Psychological Well-Being With Cardiac Repolarization

Circulation ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 125 (suppl_10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Amit J Shah ◽  
Robert Carney ◽  
Elsayed Z Soliman ◽  
Viola Vaccarino
Keyword(s):  
Psychological Health ◽  
Disease Risk ◽  
Cardiovascular Disease Risk ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Left Ventricular ◽  
Morbidity And Mortality ◽  
Psychological Well Being ◽  
Psychological Wellness ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
The Mean

Background: Abnormal frontal T-axis is an independent predictor of mortality, and may be influenced by increased sympathetic tone and cardiovascular disease risk factors. Factors related to poor psychological health, such as depression, are associated with increased risk of CVD morbidity, although the mechanisms are not clear. We tested the hypothesis that: 1) reduced psychological wellness is associated with abnormal T-axis and 2) this association may help to explain the excess risk of CVD morbidity and mortality related to poor psychological health. Methods: We studied 4485 community-based adults aged 25–65 years without a history of CVD from NHANES I (1971–75) who were monitored for CVD hospitalization and death until 1993. Those with ECG evidence of previous MI, left ventricular hypertrophy, and major ventricular conduction defects (QRS interval ≥ 120 ms) were excluded. Frontal T-axis was obtained through 12-lead ECG, and a deviation of ≥ 30° from normal (45°) was considered abnormal. Psychological well-being was measured with the General Well-Being Scale (GWB). Results: The mean ± SD age was 43.1 ± 11.5 years and 55% were women. The mean ± SD GWB score was 80.5 ± 17.3, the median frontal T-axis was 51°, and 13% had an abnormal T-axis. In cross-sectional analysis adjusting for age, sex, and race, a 1-SD decrease in GWB was associated with an OR of 1.12 for abnormal T-axis (p=0.01). This effect was unchanged after adjusting for systolic blood pressure, smoking, diabetes, total cholesterol, and BMI. Abnormal T-axis was associated with CVD hospitalization/death (adjusted HR 1.29, p=0.01), as was GWB (adjusted HR 1.104 per 1-SD decrease, p=0.01). When both factors were included in the model, the HR of GWB decreased by 8% to 1.096 (p=0.02). Conclusion: Abnormal frontal T-axis is modestly but significantly associated with reduced psychological wellness. Although this association may help understand neurocardiac relationships, it does not substantially explain morbidity and mortality associated with reduced psychological wellness.

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