scholarly journals Non-Linear Fitting of Sigmoidal Growth Curves to predict a maximum limit to the total number of COVID-19 cases in the United States

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Maximiliano Dutra
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Growth Models ◽  
Growth Curves ◽  
The United States ◽  
World Health ◽  
Logistic Growth ◽  
Linear Fitting ◽  
Nonlinear Fitting ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Maximum Limit

AbstractIn the present work is used non-linear fitting of the “Gompert” and “Logistic” growth models to the number of total COVID-19 cases from the United States as a country and individually by states. The methodology allowed us to estimate that the maximum limit for the total number of cases of COVID-19 patients such as those registered with the World Health Organization will be approximately one million and one hundred thousand cases to the United States. Up to 04/19/20 the models indicate that United States reached 70% of this maximum number of “total cases” and the United States will reach 95% of this limit by 05/14/2020. The application of the nonlinear fitting of growth curves to the individual data of each American state showed that only 25% of them did not reach, on 04/19/20, the percentage of 59% of the maximum limit of “total cases” and that 17 of the 50 states still will not have reached 95% of that limit on 05/14/20.

Non-Linear fitting of Sigmoidal Growth Curves to predict a maximum limit to the total number of COVID-19 cases in the United States. (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Dutra Sr
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Growth Models ◽  
Growth Curves ◽  
The United States ◽  
World Health ◽  
Logistic Growth ◽  
Linear Fitting ◽  
Nonlinear Fitting ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Maximum Limit

UNSTRUCTURED In the present work is used non-linear fitting of the "Gompert" and "Logistic" growth models to the number of total COVID-19 cases from the United States as a country and individually by states. The methodology allowed us to estimate that the maximum limit for the total number of cases of COVID-19 patients such as those registered with the World Health Organization will be approximately one million and one hundred thousand cases to the United States. Up to 04/19/20 the models indicate that United States reached 70% of this maximum number of "total cases" and the United States will reach 95% of this limit by 05/14/2020. The application of the nonlinear fitting of growth curves to the individual data of each American state showed that only 25% of them did not reach, on 04/19/20, the percentage of 59% of the maximum limit of "total cases" and that 17 of the 50 states still will not have reached 95% of that limit on 05/14/20.

scholarly journals Pitting the Gumbel and logistic growth models against one another to model COVID-19 spread

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keunyoung Yoo ◽  
Mohammad Arashi ◽  
Andriette Bekker
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Growth Model ◽  
Growth Curve ◽  
United States Of America ◽  
Growth Models ◽  
The United States ◽  
Growth Curve Modeling ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Logistic Growth ◽  
Curve Modeling

AbstractIn this paper, we investigate briefly the appropriateness of the widely used logistic growth curve modeling with focus on COVID-19 spread, from a data-driven perspective. Specifically, we suggest the Gumbel growth model for behaviour of COVID-19 cases in European countries in addition to the United States of America (US), for better detecting the growth and prediction. We provide a suitable fit and predict the growth of cases for some selected countries as illustration. Our contribution will stimulate the correct growth spread modeling for this pandemic outbreak.

The Ethics of COVID-19 Vaccine Passports

2021 ◽  
Vol 46 (4) ◽  
pp. 1-2
Author(s):  
Joseph Meaney ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
World Health Organization ◽  
The United States ◽  
Scientific Data ◽  
World Health ◽  
Medical Decisions ◽  
The Poor ◽  
Divided Society ◽  
The World ◽  
Health Organization

COVID-19 vaccine passports run the risk of creating a divided society where social privileges or restrictions based on “fitness” lead to discrimination based on immunization status. Individuals have a strong right to be free of coercion to take a COVID-19 vaccine, and we should be very leery of further invasion of private medical decisions. These concerns are shared both internationally and in the United States, and the World Health Organization, the Biden administration, and many US governors oppose COVID-19 vaccine credentials. In addition, regulations for COVID-19 vaccine credentials face practical barriers, including lack of access globally, especially among the poor; and lack of scientific data on the efficacy of these vaccines.

Annual Summary of Vital Statistics—1976

PEDIATRICS ◽  
1977 ◽  
Vol 60 (6) ◽  
pp. 797-804
Author(s):  
Myron E. Wegman
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Nations ◽  
The United States ◽  
Vital Statistics ◽  
World Health ◽  
Health Statistics ◽  
The World ◽  
States Data ◽  
International Data ◽  
Health Organization

Data for this article, as in previous reports,1 are drawn principally from the Monthly Vital Statistics Report,2-5 published by the National Center for Health Statistics. The international data come from the Demographic Yearbook6 and the quarterly Population and Vital Statistics Report,7 both published by the Statistical Office of the United Nations, and the World Health Statistics Report,8 published by the World Health Organization. All the United States data for 1976 are estimates by place of occurrence based upon a 10% sample of material received in state offices between two dates, one month apart, regardless of when the event occurred. Experience has shown that for the country as a whole the estimate is very close to the subsequent final figures.

scholarly journals Bibliotherapy for Mental Health

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 67
Author(s):  
Jennifer Yontz-Orlando
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
United States ◽  
Mental Illness ◽  
Medical Condition ◽  
Action Plan ◽  
The United States ◽  
World Health ◽  
Group Setting ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
The Uk

The United States is facing an epidemic of mental illness, affecting nearly 60 million Americans annually (http://www.nami.org/ ). The World Health Organization describes mental health as “a long neglected problem” and has established an action plan for 2013-2020 (http://www.who.int/mental_health/action_plan_2013/en/). One way to combat mental illness is through bibliotherapy, which is the use of written materials including fiction, nonfiction, and poetry to support emotional and psychiatric healing.Bibliotherapy has been in existence since ancient times, but began in earnest in the United States in the 1850’s during the “Great Awakening.” At that time, mental illness began to be seen as a medical condition rather than a supernatural phenomenon. Since then, due to the changing nature of our institutions, interest in bibliotherapy waned until the 1950’s when there was a slight resurgence in its practice. However, in the last 20 years, bibliotherapy has gained a stronghold in the United Kingdom. To relieve the stress of an overcrowded mental health system, public policy in the UK has supported the use of bibliotherapy in a variety of its institutions. There are many ways to conduct bibliotherapy, but studies show that when the process is interactive, such as in a support group setting, the results are better. Also, bibliotherapy can be conducted by many sorts of professionals, including doctors, therapists, social workers, teachers, and librarians. Studies also show that when the bibliotherapists are trained in the best practices of bibliotherapy, results improve. Bibliotherapy is an effective, low-cost alternative for people in need of therapeutic assistance. The UK model should be studied and implemented in the United States and in other nations to help solve the mental health crisis.

Infant formula and toddler milk marketing: opportunities to address harmful practices and improve young children’s diets

2020 ◽  
Vol 78 (10) ◽  
pp. 866-883 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer L Harris ◽  
Jennifer L Pomeranz
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Infant Formula ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Child Nutrition ◽  
Self Regulation ◽  
The United States ◽  
World Health ◽  
Health Providers ◽  
Formula Milk ◽  
State And Local

Abstract Children’s diets in their first 1000 days influence dietary preferences, eating habits, and long-term health. Yet the diets of most infants and toddlers in the United States do not conform to recommendations for optimal child nutrition. This narrative review examines whether marketing for infant formula and other commercial baby/toddler foods plays a role. The World Health Organization’s International Code of Marketing Breast-milk Substitutes strongly encourages countries and manufacturers to prohibit marketing practices that discourage initiation of, and continued, breastfeeding. However, in the United States, widespread infant formula marketing negatively impacts breastfeeding. Research has also identified questionable marketing of toddler milks (formula/milk-based drinks for children aged 12–36 mo). The United States has relied exclusively on industry self-regulation, but US federal agencies and state and local governments could regulate problematic marketing of infant formula and toddler milks. Health providers and public health organizations should also provide guidance. However, further research is needed to better understand how marketing influences what and how caregivers feed their young children and inform potential interventions and regulatory solutions.

scholarly journals Water and Sanitation in Urban America, 2017–2019

2020 ◽  
Vol 110 (10) ◽  
pp. 1567-1572
Author(s):  
Drew Capone ◽  
Oliver Cumming ◽  
Dennis Nichols ◽  
Joe Brown
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Nations ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Monitoring Program ◽  
The United States ◽  
World Health ◽  
Water And Sanitation ◽  
Urban America ◽  
Joint Monitoring ◽  
Health Organization

Objectives. To estimate the population lacking at least basic water and sanitation access in the urban United States. Methods. We compared national estimates of water and sanitation access from the World Health Organization/United Nations Children’s Fund Joint Monitoring Program with estimates from the US Department of Housing and Urban Development on homelessness and the American Community Survey on household water and sanitation facilities. Results. We estimated that at least 930 000 persons in US cities lacked sustained access to at least basic sanitation and 610 000 to at least basic water access, as defined by the United Nations. Conclusions. After accounting for those experiencing homelessness and substandard housing, our estimate of people lacking at least basic water equaled current estimates (n = 610 000)—without considering water quality—and greatly exceeded estimates of sanitation access (n = 28 000). Public Health Implications. Methods to estimate water and sanitation access in the United States should include people experiencing homelessness and other low-income groups, and specific policies are needed to reduce disparities in urban sanitation. We recommend similar estimation efforts for other high-income countries currently reported as having near universal sanitation access.

scholarly journals A Quantitative Risk Assessment of Human Salmonellosis from Consumption of Walnuts in the United States

2018 ◽  
Vol 82 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-57 ◽  
Author(s):  
SOFIA M. SANTILLANA FARAKOS ◽  
RÉGIS POUILLOT ◽  
GORDON R. DAVIDSON ◽  
RHOMA JOHNSON ◽  
INSOOK SON ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Rare Event ◽  
The United States ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
World Health ◽  
Baseline Model ◽  
Log Reduction ◽  
Human Salmonellosis ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACT We assessed the risk of human salmonellosis from consumption of shelled walnuts in the United States and the impact of 0- to 5-log reduction treatments for Salmonella during processing. We established a baseline model with Salmonella contamination data from 2010 to 2013 surveys of walnuts from California operations to estimate baseline prevalence and levels of Salmonella during preshelling storage and typical walnut processing stages, considered U.S. consumption data, and applied an adapted dose-response model from the Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Health Organization to evaluate risk of illness per serving and per year. Our baseline model predicted 1 case of salmonellosis per 100 million servings (95% confidence interval [CI], 1 case per 3 million to 1 case per 2 billion servings) of walnuts untreated during processing and uncooked by consumers, resulting in an estimated 6 cases of salmonellosis per year (95% CI, <1 to 278 cases) in the United States. A minimum 3-log reduction treatment for Salmonella during processing of walnuts eaten alone or as an uncooked ingredient resulted in a mean risk of <1 case per year. We modeled the impact on risk per serving of three atypical situations in which the Salmonella levels were increased by 0.5 to 1.5 log CFU per unit pretreatment during processing at the float tank or during preshelling storage or posttreatment during partitioning into consumer packages. No change in risk was associated with the small increase in levels of Salmonella at the float tank, whereas an increase in risk was estimated for each of the other two atypical events. In a fourth scenario, we estimated the risk per serving associated with consumption of walnuts with Salmonella prevalence and levels from a 2014 to 2015 U.S. retail survey. Risk per serving estimates were two orders of magnitude larger than those of the baseline model without treatment. Further research is needed to determine whether this finding reflects variability in Salmonella contamination across the supply or a rare event affecting a portion of the supply.

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