scholarly journals COVID-19 Pandemic Response Simulation: Impact of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions on Ending Lockdowns

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Serin Lee ◽  
Zelda B. Zabinsky ◽  
Stephen Kofsky ◽  
Shan Liu
Keyword(s):  
King County ◽  
State Governments ◽  
Agent Based Simulation ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Pandemic Response ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractAs many federal and state governments are starting to ease restrictions on non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) used to flatten the curve, we developed an agent-based simulation to model the incidence of COVID-19 in King County, WA under several scenarios. While NPIs were effective in flattening the curve, any relaxation of social distancing strategies yielded a second wave. Even if daily confirmed cases dropped to one digit, daily incidence can peak again to 874 cases without import cases. Therefore, policy makers should be very cautious in reopening society.

scholarly journals Agent-Based Simulation for Evaluation of Contact-Tracing Policies Against the Spread of SARS-CoV-2

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Bicher ◽  
Claire Rippinger ◽  
Christoph Urach ◽  
Dominik Brunmeir ◽  
Uwe Siebert ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Case Studies ◽  
Exploratory Analysis ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Agent Based Simulation ◽  
Effective Measure ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
The World ◽  
Different Characteristics ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Restrictive Policy

AbstractThe decline of active COVID-19 cases in many countries in the world has proved that lockdown policies are indeed a very effective measure to stop the exponential spread of the virus. Still, the danger of a second wave of infections is omnipresent and it is clear, that every policy of the lockdown has to be carefully evaluated and possibly replaced by a different, less restrictive policy, before it can be lifted. Tracing of contacts and consequential tracing and breaking of infection-chains is a promising and comparably straightforward strategy to help containing the disease, although its precise impact on the epidemic is unknown. In order to quantify the benefits of tracing and similar policies we developed an agent-based model that not only validly depicts the spread of the disease, but allows for exploratory analysis of containment policies. We will describe our model and perform case studies in which we use the model to quantify impact of contact tracing in different characteristics and draw valuable conclusions about contact tracing policies in general.

scholarly journals Determining the effectiveness of practicing non-pharmaceutical interventions in improving virus control in a pandemic using agent-based modelling

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 423-438
Author(s):  
Christian Alvin Buhat ◽  
Steven Kyle Villanueva
Keyword(s):  
Initial Population ◽  
Small Community ◽  
Time Duration ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Random Mass ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
Optimal Output ◽  
Outbreak Period ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

In order to determine the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions on an epidemic, we develop an agent-based model that simulates the spread of an infectious disease in a small community and its emerging phenomena. We vary parameters such as initial population, initial infected, infection rate, recovery rate, death rate, and asymptomatic rates, as inputs. Our simulations show that (i) random mass testing decreases the number of deaths, infections and time duration; (ii) as well as quarantines; (iii) social distancing lengthen outbreak period to an extent and helps flatten the epidemic curve; and (iv) the most effective combination of NPIs to minimize death, infection and duration is no mass testing, no social distancing and a total lockdown. Results of this study can aid decision makers in their policies to be implemented to have an optimal output.

scholarly journals Homebound by COVID19: The Benefits and Consequences of Non-pharmaceutical Intervention Strategies

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Buse Eylul Oruc ◽  
Arden Baxter ◽  
Pinar Keskinocak ◽  
John Asplund ◽  
Nicoleta Serban
Keyword(s):  
Intervention Strategies ◽  
School Closure ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Agent Based Simulation ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Workplace Interactions ◽  
Potential Benefits ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Multiple Scenarios ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Abstract Background. Recent research has been conducted by various countries and regions on the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on reducing the spread of COVID19. This study evaluates the tradeoffs between potential benefits (e.g., reduction in infection spread and deaths) of NPIs for COVID19 and being homebound (i.e., refraining from community/workplace interactions).Methods. An agent-based simulation model to project the disease spread and estimate the number of homebound people and person-days under multiple scenarios, including combinations of shelter-in-place, voluntary quarantine, and school closure in Georgia from March 1 to September 1, 2020.Results. Compared to no intervention, under voluntary quarantine, voluntary quarantine with school closure, and shelter-in-place with school closure scenarios 3.43, 19.8, and 200+ homebound adult-days were required to prevent one infection, with the maximum number of adults homebound on a given day in the range of 121K-268K, 522K-567K, 5,377K-5,380K, respectively.Conclusions. Voluntary quarantine combined with school closure significantly reduced the number of infections and deaths with a considerably smaller number of homebound person-days compared to shelter-in-place.

scholarly journals Low-Impact Social Distancing Interventions to Mitigate Local Epidemics of SARS-CoV-2

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael L. Jackson
Keyword(s):  
Nursing Home ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Nursing Home Residents ◽  
King County ◽  
Rapid Testing ◽  
School Closures ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Hospital Occupancy

AbstractBackgroundAfter many jurisdictions have implemented intensive social distancing to suppress SARS-CoV-2 transmission, the challenge now is to mitigate the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic without overburdening economic and social activities. This report explores “low-impact” interventions to mitigate SARS-CoV-2 with a minimum of social and economic disruption.MethodsAn agent-based model simulated the population of King County, Washington, with agents that interact in homes, schools, workplaces, and other community sites. SARS-CoV-2 transmission probabilities were estimated by fitting simulated to observed hospital admissions from February – May 2020. Interventions considered were (a) encouraging telecommuting; (b) reducing contacts to seniors and nursing home residents; (c) modest reductions to contacts outside of the home; (d) encouraging self-isolation of persons with COVID-19 symptoms; (e) rapid testing and household quarantining.ResultsIndividual interventions are not expected to have a large impact on COVID-19 hospitalizations. No intervention reduced COVID-19 hospitalizations by more than 12.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 12.0% to 13.3%). Removing all interventions would result in nearly 42,000 COVID- 19 hospitalizations between June 2020 and January 2021, with peak hospital occupancy exceeding available beds 6-fold. Combining the interventions is predicted to reduce total hospitalizations by 48% (95% CI, 47-49%), with peak COVID-19 hospital occupancy of 70% of total beds. Targeted school closures can further reduce the peak occupancy.ConclusionsCombining low-impact interventions may mitigate the course of the COVID-19 epidemic, keeping hospital burden within the capacity of the healthcare system. Under this approach SARS-CoV-2 can spread through the community, moving toward herd immunity, while minimizing social and economic disruption.

scholarly journals Social distancing and epidemic resurgence in agent-based susceptible-infectious-recovered models

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruslan I. Mukhamadiarov ◽  
Shengfeng Deng ◽  
Shannon R. Serrao ◽  
Priyanka ◽  
Riya Nandi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulations ◽  
Network Architectures ◽  
Epidemic Outbreak ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
Spatial Spread ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractOnce an epidemic outbreak has been effectively contained through non-pharmaceutical interventions, a safe protocol is required for the subsequent release of social distancing restrictions to prevent a disastrous resurgence of the infection. We report individual-based numerical simulations of stochastic susceptible-infectious-recovered model variants on four distinct spatially organized lattice and network architectures wherein contact and mobility constraints are implemented. We robustly find that the intensity and spatial spread of the epidemic recurrence wave can be limited to a manageable extent provided release of these restrictions is delayed sufficiently (for a duration of at least thrice the time until the peak of the unmitigated outbreak) and long-distance connections are maintained on a low level (limited to less than five percent of the overall connectivity).

scholarly journals Homebound by COVID19: The Benefits and Consequences of Non-Pharmaceutical Intervention Strategies

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Buse Eylul Oruc Aglar ◽  
Arden Baxter ◽  
Pinar Keskinocak ◽  
John Asplund ◽  
Nicoleta Serban
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Model ◽  
Intervention Strategies ◽  
School Closure ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Agent Based Simulation ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Workplace Interactions ◽  
Potential Benefits ◽  
Multiple Scenarios ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Objectives. To evaluate the tradeoffs between potential benefits (e.g., reduction in infection spread and deaths) of non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID19 and being homebound (i.e., refraining from community/workplace interactions). Methods. An agent-based simulation model to project the disease spread and estimate the number of homebound people and person-days under multiple scenarios, including combinations of shelter-in-place, voluntary quarantine, and school closure in Georgia from March 1 to September 1, 2020. Results. Compared to no intervention, under voluntary quarantine, voluntary quarantine with school closure, and shelter-in-place with school closure scenarios 3.43, 19.8, and 200+ homebound adult-days were required to prevent one infection, with the maximum number of adults homebound on a given day in the range of 121K-268K, 522K-567K, 5,377K-5,380K, respectively. Conclusions. Voluntary quarantine combined with school closure significantly reduced the number of infections and deaths with a considerably smaller number of homebound person-days compared to shelter-in-place.

scholarly journals Nowcasting transmission and suppression of the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Australia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sheryl Chang ◽  
Oliver Cliff ◽  
Cameron Zachreson ◽  
Mikhail Prokopenko
Keyword(s):  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Acquired Immunity ◽  
Small Reduction ◽  
School Closures ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Feasible Range ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
Sydney Australia

Abstract As of July 2021, there is a continuing outbreak of the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Sydney, Australia. The outbreak is of major concern as the Delta variant is estimated to have twice the reproductive number of previous variants that circulated in Australia in 2020, which is worsened by low levels of acquired immunity in the population. Using a re-calibrated agent-based model, we explored a feasible range of non-pharmaceutical interventions, in terms of both mitigation (case isolation, home quarantine) and suppression (school closures, social distancing). Our nowcasting modelling indicates that the level of social distancing currently attained in Sydney is inadequate for the outbreak control. A counter-factual analysis suggests that if 80% of agents comply with social distancing, then at least a month is needed for the new daily cases to reduce from their peak to below ten. A small reduction in social distancing compliance to 70% lengthens this period to 45 days.

scholarly journals Impact of Timing of and Adherence to Social Distancing Measures on COVID-19 Burden in the US: A Simulation Modeling Approach

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oguzhan Alagoz ◽  
Ajay K. Sethi ◽  
Brian W. Patterson ◽  
Matthew Churpek ◽  
Nasia Safdar
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Simulation Model ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Major Effect ◽  
Agent Based Simulation ◽  
Population Demographics ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The People ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACTBackgroundAcross the U.S., various social distancing measures were implemented to control COVID-19 pandemic. However, there is uncertainty in the effectiveness of such measures for specific regions with varying population demographics and different levels of adherence to social distancing. The objective of this paper is to determine the impact of social distancing measures in unique regions.MethodsWe developed COVid-19 Agent-based simulation Model (COVAM), an agent-based simulation model (ABM) that represents the social network and interactions among the people in a region considering population demographics, limited testing availability, imported infections from outside of the region, asymptomatic disease transmission, and adherence to social distancing measures. We adopted COVAM to represent COVID-19-associated events in Dane County, Wisconsin, Milwaukee metropolitan area, and New York City (NYC). We used COVAM to evaluate the impact of three different aspects of social distancing: 1) Adherence to social distancing measures; 2) timing of implementing social distancing; and 3) timing of easing social distancing.ResultsWe found that the timing of social distancing and adherence level had a major effect on COVID-19 occurrence. For example, in NYC, implementing social distancing measures on March 5, 2020 instead of March 12, 2020 would have reduced the total number of confirmed cases from 191,984 to 43,968 as of May 30, whereas a 1-week delay in implementing such measures could have increased the number of confirmed cases to 1,299,420. Easing social distancing measures on June 1, 2020 instead of June 15, 2020 in NYC would increase the total number of confirmed cases from 275,587 to 379,858 as of July 31.ConclusionThe timing of implementing social distancing measures, adherence to the measures, and timing of their easing have major effects on the number of COVID-19 cases.Primary Funding SourceNational Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Institute

scholarly journals The Joint Impact of COVID-19 Vaccination and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on Infections, Hospitalizations, and Mortality: An Agent-Based Simulation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehul D. Patel ◽  
Erik Rosenstrom ◽  
Julie S. Ivy ◽  
Maria E. Mayorga ◽  
Pinar Keskinocak ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Vaccine Efficacy ◽  
Vaccine Coverage ◽  
Absolute Risk ◽  
Absolute Risk Reduction ◽  
Face Mask ◽  
Agent Based Simulation ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractBackgroundVaccination against SAR-CoV-2 has the potential to significantly reduce transmission and COVID-19 morbidity and mortality. This modeling study simulated the comparative and joint impact of COVID-19 vaccine efficacy and coverage with and without non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on total infections, hospitalizations, and deaths.MethodsAn agent-based simulation model was employed to estimate incident SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19-associated hospitalizations and deaths over 1.5 years for the State of North Carolina, a population of roughly 10.5 million. Vaccine efficacy of 50% and 90% and vaccine coverage of 25%, 50%, and 75% (at the end of a 6-month distribution period) were evaluated. Six vaccination scenarios were simulated with NPIs (i.e., reduced mobility, school closings, face mask usage) maintained and removed during the period of vaccine distribution.ResultsIn the worst-case vaccination scenario (50% efficacy and 25% coverage), approximately 2.2 million new SARS-CoV-2 infections occurred with NPIs removed and approximately 900,000 infections with NPIs maintained. In contrast, in the best-case scenario (90% efficacy and 75% coverage), there were 458,087 new infections with NPIs maintained and 535,019 with NPIs maintained. When NPIs were removed, 50% efficacy and 75% coverage reduced infection risk by a greater magnitude than 90% efficacy and 25% coverage (absolute risk reduction 13% and 8%, respectively).ConclusionSimulation results suggest that, as NPIs are removed, higher vaccination coverage with less efficacious vaccines can contribute to a larger reduction in risk of SAR-CoV-2 infection than compared to more efficacious vaccines at lower coverage. Furthermore, premature lifting of NPIs while vaccines are distributed may result in substantial increases in infections, hospitalizations, and deaths. Overall, our findings highlight the need for well-resourced and coordinated efforts to achieve high vaccine coverage and continued adherence to NPIs to end the current pandemic.

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