scholarly journals Social distancing and epidemic resurgence in agent-based susceptible-infectious-recovered models

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruslan I. Mukhamadiarov ◽  
Shengfeng Deng ◽  
Shannon R. Serrao ◽  
Priyanka ◽  
Riya Nandi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulations ◽  
Network Architectures ◽  
Epidemic Outbreak ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
Spatial Spread ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractOnce an epidemic outbreak has been effectively contained through non-pharmaceutical interventions, a safe protocol is required for the subsequent release of social distancing restrictions to prevent a disastrous resurgence of the infection. We report individual-based numerical simulations of stochastic susceptible-infectious-recovered model variants on four distinct spatially organized lattice and network architectures wherein contact and mobility constraints are implemented. We robustly find that the intensity and spatial spread of the epidemic recurrence wave can be limited to a manageable extent provided release of these restrictions is delayed sufficiently (for a duration of at least thrice the time until the peak of the unmitigated outbreak) and long-distance connections are maintained on a low level (limited to less than five percent of the overall connectivity).

scholarly journals Determining the effectiveness of practicing non-pharmaceutical interventions in improving virus control in a pandemic using agent-based modelling

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 423-438
Author(s):  
Christian Alvin Buhat ◽  
Steven Kyle Villanueva
Keyword(s):  
Initial Population ◽  
Small Community ◽  
Time Duration ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Random Mass ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
Optimal Output ◽  
Outbreak Period ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

In order to determine the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions on an epidemic, we develop an agent-based model that simulates the spread of an infectious disease in a small community and its emerging phenomena. We vary parameters such as initial population, initial infected, infection rate, recovery rate, death rate, and asymptomatic rates, as inputs. Our simulations show that (i) random mass testing decreases the number of deaths, infections and time duration; (ii) as well as quarantines; (iii) social distancing lengthen outbreak period to an extent and helps flatten the epidemic curve; and (iv) the most effective combination of NPIs to minimize death, infection and duration is no mass testing, no social distancing and a total lockdown. Results of this study can aid decision makers in their policies to be implemented to have an optimal output.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Pandemic Response Simulation: Impact of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions on Ending Lockdowns

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Serin Lee ◽  
Zelda B. Zabinsky ◽  
Stephen Kofsky ◽  
Shan Liu
Keyword(s):  
King County ◽  
State Governments ◽  
Agent Based Simulation ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Pandemic Response ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractAs many federal and state governments are starting to ease restrictions on non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) used to flatten the curve, we developed an agent-based simulation to model the incidence of COVID-19 in King County, WA under several scenarios. While NPIs were effective in flattening the curve, any relaxation of social distancing strategies yielded a second wave. Even if daily confirmed cases dropped to one digit, daily incidence can peak again to 874 cases without import cases. Therefore, policy makers should be very cautious in reopening society.

scholarly journals Nowcasting transmission and suppression of the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Australia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sheryl Chang ◽  
Oliver Cliff ◽  
Cameron Zachreson ◽  
Mikhail Prokopenko
Keyword(s):  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Acquired Immunity ◽  
Small Reduction ◽  
School Closures ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Feasible Range ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
Sydney Australia

Abstract As of July 2021, there is a continuing outbreak of the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Sydney, Australia. The outbreak is of major concern as the Delta variant is estimated to have twice the reproductive number of previous variants that circulated in Australia in 2020, which is worsened by low levels of acquired immunity in the population. Using a re-calibrated agent-based model, we explored a feasible range of non-pharmaceutical interventions, in terms of both mitigation (case isolation, home quarantine) and suppression (school closures, social distancing). Our nowcasting modelling indicates that the level of social distancing currently attained in Sydney is inadequate for the outbreak control. A counter-factual analysis suggests that if 80% of agents comply with social distancing, then at least a month is needed for the new daily cases to reduce from their peak to below ten. A small reduction in social distancing compliance to 70% lengthens this period to 45 days.

scholarly journals Dataset on SARS-CoV-2 non-pharmaceutical interventions in Brazilian municipalities

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreza Aruska de Souza Santos ◽  
Darlan da Silva Candido ◽  
William Marciel de Souza ◽  
Lewis Buss ◽  
Sabrina L. Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Local Governments ◽  
Federal District ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Survey Responses ◽  
Municipal Level ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractBrazil has one of the fastest-growing COVID-19 epidemics worldwide. Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been adopted at the municipal level with asynchronous actions taken across 5,568 municipalities and the Federal District. This paper systematises the fragmented information on NPIs reporting on a novel dataset with survey responses from 4,027 mayors, covering 72.3% of all municipalities in the country. This dataset responds to the urgency to track and share findings on fragmented policies during the COVID-19 pandemic. Quantifying NPIs can help to assess the role of interventions in reducing transmission. We offer spatial and temporal details for a range of measures aimed at implementing social distancing and the dates when these measures were relaxed by local governments.

scholarly journals Controlling the Spatial Spread of a Xylella Epidemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 83 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian Aniţa ◽  
Vincenzo Capasso ◽  
Simone Scacchi
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Structure ◽  
Numerical Simulations ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Xylella Fastidiosa ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Olive Tree ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Weed Biomass ◽  
Spatial Spread ◽  
Olive Trees

AbstractIn a recent paper by one of the authors and collaborators, motivated by the Olive Quick Decline Syndrome (OQDS) outbreak, which has been ongoing in Southern Italy since 2013, a simple epidemiological model describing this epidemic was presented. Beside the bacterium Xylella fastidiosa, the main players considered in the model are its insect vectors, Philaenus spumarius, and the host plants (olive trees and weeds) of the insects and of the bacterium. The model was based on a system of ordinary differential equations, the analysis of which provided interesting results about possible equilibria of the epidemic system and guidelines for its numerical simulations. Although the model presented there was mathematically rather simplified, its analysis has highlighted threshold parameters that could be the target of control strategies within an integrated pest management framework, not requiring the removal of the productive resource represented by the olive trees. Indeed, numerical simulations support the outcomes of the mathematical analysis, according to which the removal of a suitable amount of weed biomass (reservoir of Xylella fastidiosa) from olive orchards and surrounding areas resulted in the most efficient strategy to control the spread of the OQDS. In addition, as expected, the adoption of more resistant olive tree cultivars has been shown to be a good strategy, though less cost-effective, in controlling the pathogen. In this paper for a more realistic description and a clearer interpretation of the proposed control measures, a spatial structure of the epidemic system has been included, but, in order to keep mathematical technicalities to a minimum, only two players have been described in a dynamical way, trees and insects, while the weed biomass is taken to be a given quantity. The control measures have been introduced only on a subregion of the whole habitat, in order to contain costs of intervention. We show that such a practice can lead to the eradication of an epidemic outbreak. Numerical simulations confirm both the results of the previous paper and the theoretical results of the model with a spatial structure, though subject to regional control only.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Pandemic Response Simulation in a Large City: Impact of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions on Reopening Society

2021 ◽  
pp. 0272989X2110030
Author(s):  
Serin Lee ◽  
Zelda B. Zabinsky ◽  
Judith N. Wasserheit ◽  
Stephen M. Kofsky ◽  
Shan Liu
Keyword(s):  
Large City ◽  
Face Mask ◽  
School Closure ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Variable Compliance ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions

As the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic continues to expand, policymakers are striving to balance the combinations of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to keep people safe and minimize social disruptions. We developed and calibrated an agent-based simulation to model COVID-19 outbreaks in the greater Seattle area. The model simulated NPIs, including social distancing, face mask use, school closure, testing, and contact tracing with variable compliance and effectiveness to identify optimal NPI combinations that can control the spread of the virus in a large urban area. Results highlight the importance of at least 75% face mask use to relax social distancing and school closure measures while keeping infections low. It is important to relax NPIs cautiously during vaccine rollout in 2021.

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