Morbidade Hospitalar por Insuficiência Cardíaca no Nordeste Brasileiro (2010-2014) / Hospital Morbidity for Cardiac Insufficiency in Northeastern Brazil (2010-2014)

Resumo: O Objetivo foi analisar o perfil de morbidade das internações por Insuficiência Cardíaca na região Nordeste do Brasil e sua relação com as variáveis sociodemográficas. Método: Estudo Ecológico compreendendo o período de 2010 a 2014. Os dados foram retirados do Sistema de Informações Hospitalares do Sistema Único de Saúde. Resultados: No período analisado, foram realizadas 297.751 internações por Insuficiência Cardíaca. A taxa padronizada por 100.000 habitantes sofreu redução em todos os Estados. Quando considerado apenas o número bruto de hospitalizações, alguns Estados tiveram pequena redução ou aumento nos casos. O sexo masculino (53,65%), com 60 anos ou mais (68,78%), atendidos em regime de urgência (94,57%) e no setor público (56,21%), de cor parda (44,6%), foi o predominante. Na maioria das faixas etárias o domínio foi do sexo masculino. Conclusão: Embora haja tendência de queda, ainda são altas as prevalências de hospitalização por Insuficiência Cardíaca nos Estados nordestinos. Palavras-chave: Insuficiência Cardíaca; Perfil de Saúde; Hospitalização; Morbidade; Epidemiologia. Abstract: The objective was analyze the morbidity profile of hospitalizations for heart failure in the Northeast region of Brazil and its relationship with sociodemographic variables. Method: Ecological Study covering the period from 2010 to 2014. Data were taken from the Hospital Information System of the Unified Health System. Results: During the analyzed period, 297,751 admissions due to Heart Failure were carried out. The standardized rate per 100,000 inhabitants was reduced in all states. When considering only the gross number of hospitalizations, some states had a small reduction or increase in cases. Predominance in cases involved: Males (53.65%), aged 60 years or more (68.78%), treated in an emergency room (94.57%) and in the public sector (56.21%), brown (44, 6%). In most age groups the domain was male. Conclusion: Although there is a downward trend, the prevalence of hospitalization due to heart failure is still high in the northeastern states.Keywords: Heart Failure. Health Profile. Hospitalization. Morbidity. Epidemiology.

A change is (not) gonna come: a 20-year overview of Italian grandparent–grandchild exchanges

Levels of coresidence, residential proximity, face-to-face contacts and intergenerational support exchanges remain overall high and stable across European countries. However, to date, few studies have focused on trends in grandparent–grandchild relations. Therefore, this study aims to investigate whether and to what extent grandparent–grandchild exchanges have changed over time. We used data from the Italian Family and Social Subjects (FSS) Surveys, covering the years 1998–2016, and considered three different currencies of exchanges between grandparents and their grandchildren (coresidence, face-to-face contacts, and grandchild care provision). Our results showed stability over time in coresidence, a small reduction in daily contacts (from 47% in 1998 to 39% in 2016) and an increase in grandchildren care (from 78% in 1998 to 82% in 2016). In addition, we found little changes in the associations between such indicators of intergenerational exchanges and the demographic and socio-economic determinants usually used to explain them. Despite changes among Italian grandparents such as increases in their age profile, in education, and in marital disruption, the relations between grandparents and their grandchildren have so far remained stable over time, with generally high levels of intergenerational exchanges.

Research on the Influence of Shear Turbulence on the Aerodynamic Loads Characteristics of Wind Turbine

In order to accurately analysis the aerodynamic loads characteristics of the wind turbine under different turbulent wind conditions, the horizontal homogeneity in the flow field without a wind turbine and the numerical accuracy of the homogeneous flow field with a wind turbine were validated against the experimental results. The aerodynamic loads of the wind turbine were studied under the conditions of the uniform wind with a uniform turbulence intensity, the uniform wind with a shear turbulence intensity, the shear wind with a uniform turbulence intensity and the shear wind with a shear turbulence intensity. The results show that the increasing turbulence intensity leads to a small reduction in the torque of the wind turbine. Compared with uniform wind, shear inflow leads to a sine or cosine variation in the aerodynamic performance of the wind turbine and a reduction in the wind turbine’s thrust and torque. Compared with uniform turbulence intensity, shear turbulence intensity leads to a reduction in the wind turbine’s thrust and torque, and a more obvious phase lag effect, but it has little influence on the yawing moment and pitching moment.

Effects of Zr/(Zr+Ti) Molar Ratio on the Phase Structure and Hardness of TixZr1−xN Films

TixZr1−xN hard films with Zr/(Zr+Ti) molar ratios from 20% to 80% were prepared by multi-arc ion plating using any two of elemental Ti, elemental Zr, and TiZr alloy targets. The as-deposited TixZr1−xN films displayed similar surface and fracture cross-section morphologies and thicknesses. The effects of Zr/(Zr+Ti) molar ratio on the phase composition, preferred growth orientation, and hardness of the films were discussed. The results showed that the as-deposited films had a face-centered cubic structure and exhibited the typical characteristics of substitutional solid solutions. The lattice constant of the films increased monotonically with increasing Zr/(Zr+Ti) molar ratio. Two preferred growth orientations, corresponding to the two hardness peak values, occurred symmetrically at Zr/Ti molar ratios of 40:60 and 60:40. An inflection point with a small reduction in hardness was observed at the Zr/Ti molar ratio of 50:50.

Vaccination against COVID-19 and society’s return to normality in England: a modelling study of impacts of different types of naturally acquired and vaccine-induced immunity

ObjectivesTo project impacts of mass vaccination against COVID-19, and investigate possible impacts of different types of naturally acquired and vaccine-induced immunity on future dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission from 2021 to 2024 in England.DesignDeterministic, compartmental, discrete-time Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) modelling.ParticipantsPopulation in England.InterventionsMass vaccination programmes.Outcome measuresDaily and cumulative number of deaths from COVID-19.ResultsIf vaccine efficacy remains high (85%), the vaccine-induced sterilising immunity lasts ≥182 days, and the reinfectivity is greatly reduced (by ≥60%), annual mass vaccination programmes can prevent further COVID-19 outbreaks in England. Under optimistic scenarios, with annual revaccination programmes, the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths is estimated to be from 130 000 to 150 000 by the end of 2024. However, the total number of COVID-19 deaths may be up to 431 000 by the end of 2024, under scenarios with compromised vaccine efficacy (62.5%), short duration of natural and vaccine immunity (365/182 days) and small reduction in reinfectivity (30%). Under the assumed scenarios, more frequent revaccinations are associated with smaller total numbers and lower peaks of daily deaths from COVID-19.ConclusionsUnder optimistic scenarios, mass immunisation using efficacious vaccines may enable society safely to return to normality. However, under plausible scenarios with low vaccine efficacy and short durability of immunity, COVID-19 could continue to cause recurrent waves of severe morbidity and mortality despite frequent vaccinations. It is crucial to monitor the vaccination effects in the real world, and to better understand characteristics of naturally acquired and vaccine-induced immunity against SARS-CoV-2.

Improvement of double-layer phosphor structure WLEDS in color homogeneity and luminous flux

The concept of the analysis is to put a CaAl2O4:Mn2+ green phosphor layer on top of the YAG:Ce3+ yellow phosphor layer. After that, find the added CaAl2O4:Mn2+ concentration appropriate for the highest luminous flux (LF) and color homogeneity (CH). In this analysis, five equivalent WLEDs were applied but with distinct color temperatures, including 5600 K - 8500 K. The findings showed that CaAl2O4:Mn2+ brings great benefits to increase not only the luminous flux but also the color homogeneity. Especially, the higher the CaAl2O4:Mn2+ concentration, the more the luminous flux released by WLEDs, owing to the risen content of the light of green in WLEDs. Nevertheless, as the CaAl2O4:Mn2+ concentration raised significantly, a small reduction in the color rendering metric (CRI) and color quality scale (CQS) occurred. This is supported by simulation and calculation according to the theory of Monte Carlo. The paper results are the crucial contribution to the manufacture of WLEDs with better optical performance and color homogeneity of remote phosphor configurations.

Effectiveness of a groundsill structure in reducing scouring problem at Cimadur River, Banten Province

Groundsill is a transverse threshold structure that can be built on water body as one alternative in reducing the upstream water velocity and therefore could maintain the upstream sedimentation rates. Due to scouring problems faced in the Cimadur River, Banten Province, a groundsill structure has been constructed at one location in Cimadur River which is near to the Bantar Karang bridge structure. The scouring problem is worried to damage the abutment of the bridge structure. This study aims to investigate the effectiveness of the groundsill structure in reducing the scouring problem in Cimadur River, Banten Province. The effectiveness is determined by comparing the riverbed elevation around the Bantar Karang bridge structure, before and after 5 months construction of the groundsill structure. The results showed that the presence of the groundsill structure has increased the riverbed elevation especially around the abutment of the Bantar Karang bridge (approximately 25 cm in average after 5 months installation of the groundsill structure). It is therefore can slowly reduce the local scouring problem around Bantar Karang bridge. Besides, the results also showed that there is small reduction of riverbed elevation at the downstream area of the groundsill structure approximately about 10 cm in average. It can be concluded that the groundsill structure is quite effective in reducing the local scouring problem in Cimadur River, especially upstream area of their structure around Bantar Karang bridge.

Nowcasting transmission and suppression of the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Australia

As of July 2021, there is a continuing outbreak of the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Sydney, Australia. The outbreak is of major concern as the Delta variant is estimated to have twice the reproductive number of previous variants that circulated in Australia in 2020, which is worsened by low levels of acquired immunity in the population. Using a re-calibrated agent-based model, we explored a feasible range of non-pharmaceutical interventions, in terms of both mitigation (case isolation, home quarantine) and suppression (school closures, social distancing). Our nowcasting modelling indicates that the level of social distancing currently attained in Sydney is inadequate for the outbreak control. A counter-factual analysis suggests that if 80% of agents comply with social distancing, then at least a month is needed for the new daily cases to reduce from their peak to below ten. A small reduction in social distancing compliance to 70% lengthens this period to 45 days.

A Change is (not) Gonna Come: A twenty-year overview of Italian grandparents-grandchildren exchanges

Levels of coresidence, residential proximity, face-to-face contacts and intergenerational support exchanges remain overall high and stable across European countries. However, to date, few studies have focused on trends in grandparent-grandchild relations. Therefore, this study aims to investigate whether and to what extent grandparent-grandchild exchanges have changed over time. We used data from the Italian Surveys on Family, covering the years 1998-2016, and considered three different currencies of exchanges between grandparents and their grandchildren (coresidence, face-to-face contacts, and grandchild care provision). Our results showed an astonishing stability over time in these indicators of grandparent-grandchild exchanges, with only a small reduction in daily contacts. Also, we found little changes in the associations between such indicators of intergenerational exchanges and the demographic and socio-economic determinants usually used to explain them. Despite changes among Italian grandparents such as increases in their age profile, in education, and in marital disruption, the relations between grandparents and their grandchildren remain stable over time with generally high levels of intergenerational exchanges.