scholarly journals Association of national Bacille Calmette-Guérin vaccination policy with COVID-19 epidemiology: an ecological study in 78 countries

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Norifumi Kuratani
Keyword(s):  
Protective Mechanism ◽  
Vaccination Policy ◽  
Bacille Calmette Guerin ◽  
Mixed Effect ◽  
Bcg Vaccination ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Effect Model ◽  
Increase Rate ◽  
A Current ◽  
Country Specific

A possible association between national Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination policy and lower COVID-19 incidence has been suggested in some preprint papers. Using publicly accessible databases, I explored associations of national BCG vaccination policy with COVID-19 epidemiology in 78 countries. Data collection was conducted from April 25 to May 5, 2020. I compared countries that have a current universal BCG vaccination policy (BCG countries), with countries that currently lack such a policy (non-BCG countries). The mixed effect model revealed national BCG policy decreases in the country-specific risk of death by COVID-19, correspond to odds ratio of 0.446 (95% confidence intervals 0.323 - 0.614, P =1×10-5). In BCG countries, the case increase rate was attenuated marginally by 25.4% (95% CI 3.0 to 42.7, P=0.029) as compared with those of the non-BCG countries. Although the protective mechanism of BCG vaccination against COVID-19 remains unknown, further laboratory and clinical research should be warranted.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Related Mortality: Is the BCG Vaccine Truly Effective?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan A. Paredes ◽  
Valeria Garduño ◽  
Julian Torres
Keyword(s):  
Bcg Vaccine ◽  
Vaccination Policy ◽  
Demographic Differences ◽  
Bacille Calmette Guerin ◽  
Bcg Vaccination ◽  
Prophylactic Measures ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Gathering Data ◽  
A Current ◽  
Related Mortality

AbstractThe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has become a worldwide emergency. In the attempt to search for interventions that would improve outcomes, some studies have looked at the potential benefit of BCG vaccination. These past studies have found a statistically significant reduction in COVID-19 related mortality in countries with a current universal bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination policy. However, just as the authors themselves noted, the nature of ecological studies make them very prone to the presence of several confounders. This paper took into account demographic differences, economic differences and the different stages of the pandemic in each country; gathering data from publicly available sources. It was found that no statistically significant difference exists in mortality rates between countries with a current or prior BCG vaccination policy when compared to those that never had such a program. Nevertheless, the immunostimulatory potential of the BCG vaccine might still prove useful in the development of future vaccines or other prophylactic measures.

Explore the Possible Impact of BCG Vaccination Policy on the Morbidity, Mortality, and Recovery Rates due to COVID-19 Infection. (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yue-Cune Chang
Keyword(s):  
Odds Ratio ◽  
Randomized Clinical Trials ◽  
Vaccination Policy ◽  
Bacille Calmette Guerin ◽  
Recovery Rates ◽  
Bcg Vaccination ◽  
The World ◽  
New Form ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Disease Specific

BACKGROUND The Coronavirus Disease-19 (COVID-19) is the new form of an acute infectious respiratory disease and has quickly spread over most continents in the world. Recently, it has been shown that Bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG) might protect against COVID-19. This study aims to investigate the possible correlation between BCG vaccination and morbidity/mortality/recovery rate associated with COVID-19 infection. OBJECTIVE Our findings confirm that the BCG vaccination might protect against COVID-19 virus infection. METHODS Data of COVID-19 confirmed cases, deaths, recoveries, and population were obtained from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (Accessed on 12 June, 2020). To have meaningful comparisons among countries’ mortality and recovery rates, we only choose those countries with COVID-19 infected cases at least 200. The Poisson regression and logistic regression were used to explore the relationship between BCG vaccination and morbidity, mortality and recovery rates. RESULTS Among those 158 countries with at least 200 COVID-19 infected cases, there were 141 countries with BCG vaccination information available. The adjusted rates ratio of COVID-19 confirmed cases for Current BCG vaccination vs. non-Current BCG vaccination was 0.339 (with 95% CI= (0.338,0.340)). Moreover, the adjusted odds ratio (OR) of death and recovery after coronavirus infected for Current BCG vaccination vs. non-Current BCG vaccination were 0.258 (with 95% CI= (0.254,0.261)) and 2.151 (with 95% CI= (2.140,2.163)), respectively. CONCLUSIONS That data in this study show the BCG might provide the protection against COVID-19, with consequent less COVID-19 infection and deaths and more rapid recovery. BCG vaccine might bridge the gap before the disease-specific vaccine is developed, but this hypothesis needs to be further tested in rigorous randomized clinical trials. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT RR2-https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.14.20131268

scholarly journals Correlation between immunity from BCG and the morbidity and mortality of COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dakshitha Wickramasinghe ◽  
Nilanka Wickramasinghe ◽  
Sohan Anjana Kamburugamuwa ◽  
Carukshi Arambepola ◽  
Dharmabandhu N Samarasekera
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Univariate Analysis ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Income Level ◽  
Morbidity And Mortality ◽  
Vaccination Policy ◽  
Specific Data ◽  
Bcg Vaccination ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Country Specific

Abstract Background To investigate the association between parameters indicating immunity from BCG at country level (presence of BCG vaccination policy, BCG coverage, age-specific incidence of tuberculosis(TB)) and the morbidity and mortality of COVID-19. Methods Country-specific data for COVID-19 cases and deaths, demographic details, BCG coverage and policy, age-specific TB incidence and income level were obtained. The crude COVID-19 cases and deaths per 100,000 population were calculated and assessed against the parameters indicating immunity from BCG using linear regression analysis. Results Univariate analysis identified higher income level of a country to be significantly associated with COVID-19 cases (p<0.0001) and deaths (p<0.0001) but not with its case fatality rate. The association between COVID-19 and TB was strongest for TB incidence in patients >65-years (Cases(rs=-0.785,p=0.0001)) and deaths (rs=-0.647,p=0.0001).Multivariate analysis identified the higher income level of a country and not having a universal BCG vaccination policy to affect the COVID-19 cases. The deaths were inversely affected by the presence of BCG vaccination policy and coverage; and positively by the TB incidence in patients >65-years. Conclusion Significant inverse correlations observed between cases and deaths of COVID-19 and BCG related parameters highlights immunity from BCG as a likely explanation for the variation in COVID-19 across countries.

scholarly journals Recent changes in tuberculosis control and BCG vaccination policy in France

2007 ◽  
Vol 12 (37) ◽  
Author(s):  
D Lévy-Bruhl ◽  
M C Paty ◽  
D Antoine ◽  
D Bessette
Keyword(s):  
Control Program ◽  
Vaccination Policy ◽  
Tuberculosis Control ◽  
Bacille Calmette Guerin ◽  
Bcg Vaccination ◽  
National Tuberculosis Control Program ◽  
Tuberculosis Control Program ◽  
National Tuberculosis ◽  
National Tuberculosis Control

On 11 July 2007, the French Minister of Health launched the National Tuberculosis Control Program and a new policy on Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination.

scholarly journals Correlation between immunity from BCG and the morbidity and mortality of COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dakshitha Wickramasinghe ◽  
Nilanka Wickramasinghe ◽  
Sohan Anjana Kamburugamuwa ◽  
Carukshi Arambepola ◽  
Dharmabandhu N Samarasekera
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Univariate Analysis ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Income Level ◽  
Morbidity And Mortality ◽  
Vaccination Policy ◽  
Specific Data ◽  
Bcg Vaccination ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Country Specific

Abstract Purpose To investigate the association between parameters indicating immunity from BCG at country level (presence of BCG vaccination policy, BCG coverage, age-specific incidence of tuberculosis (TB)) and the morbidity and mortality of COVID-19. Methods Country-specific data for COVID-19 cases and deaths, demographic details, BCG coverage and policy, age-specific TB incidence and income level were obtained. The crude COVID-19 cases and deaths per 100,000 population were calculated and assessed against the parameters indicating the immunity from BCG using linear regression analysis. Results Univariate analysis identified higher income level of a country to be significantly associated with COVID-19 cases (p<0.0001) and deaths (p<0.0001) but not with its case fatality rate. The association between COVID-19 and TB was strongest for TB incidence in patients >65-years (Cases(r s =-0.785,p=0.0001)) and deaths (r s =-0.647,p=0.0001). Multivariate analysis identified the higher income level of a country and not having a universal BCG vaccination policy to affect the COVID-19 cases. The deaths were affected negatively by the presence of BCG vaccination policy and coverage; and positively by the TB incidence in patients >65-years. Conclusion Significant negative correlations observed between cases and deaths of COVID-19 and parameters indicating immunity from BCG highlight a likely explanation for the variation in COVID-19 across countries.

scholarly journals Correlation between immunity from BCG and the morbidity and mortality of COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dakshitha Wickramasinghe ◽  
Nilanka Wickramasinghe ◽  
Sohan Anjana Kamburugamuwa ◽  
Carukshi Arambepola ◽  
Dharmabandhu N Samarasekera
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Univariate Analysis ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Income Level ◽  
Morbidity And Mortality ◽  
Vaccination Policy ◽  
Specific Data ◽  
Bcg Vaccination ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Country Specific

Abstract Background To investigate the association between parameters indicating immunity from BCG at country level (presence of BCG vaccination policy, BCG coverage, age-specific incidence of tuberculosis(TB)) and the morbidity and mortality of COVID-19. Methods Country-specific data for COVID-19 cases and deaths, demographic details, BCG coverage and policy, age-specific TB incidence and income level were obtained. The crude COVID-19 cases and deaths per 100,000 population were calculated and assessed against the parameters indicating immunity from BCG using linear regression analysis. Results Univariate analysis identified higher income level of a country to be significantly associated with COVID-19 cases (p<0.0001) and deaths (p<0.0001) but not with its case fatality rate. The association between COVID-19 and TB was strongest for TB incidence in patients >65-years (Cases(rs=-0.785,p=0.0001)) and deaths (rs=-0.647,p=0.0001).Multivariate analysis identified the higher income level of a country and not having a universal BCG vaccination policy to affect the COVID-19 cases. The deaths were inversely affected by the presence of BCG vaccination policy and coverage; and positively by the TB incidence in patients >65-years. Conclusion Significant inverse correlations observed between cases and deaths of COVID-19 and BCG related parameters highlights immunity from BCG as a likely explanation for the variation in COVID-19 across countries.

scholarly journals Explore the Possible Impact of BCG Vaccination Policy on the Morbidity, Mortality, and Recovery Rates due to COVID-19 Infection

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chuan-Hsin Chang ◽  
Yue-Cune Chang
Keyword(s):  
Odds Ratio ◽  
Randomized Clinical Trials ◽  
Vaccination Policy ◽  
Bacille Calmette Guerin ◽  
Recovery Rates ◽  
Bcg Vaccination ◽  
The World ◽  
New Form ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Disease Specific

ABSTRACTBACKGROUNDThe Coronavirus Disease-19 (COVID-19) is the new form of an acute infectious respiratory disease and has quickly spread over most continents in the world. Recently, it has been shown that Bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG) might protect against COVID-19. This study aims to investigate the possible correlation between BCG vaccination and morbidity/mortality/recovery rate associated with COVID-19 infection.METHODSData of COVID-19 confirmed cases, deaths, recoveries, and population were obtained from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (Accessed on 12 June, 2020). To have meaningful comparisons among countries’ mortality and recovery rates, we only choose those countries with COVID-19 infected cases at least 200. The Poisson regression and logistic regression were used to explore the relationship between BCG vaccination and morbidity, mortality and recovery rates.RESULTSAmong those 158 countries with at least 200 COVID-19 infected cases, there were 141 countries with BCG vaccination information available. The adjusted rates ratio of COVID-19 confirmed cases for Current BCG vaccination vs. non-Current BCG vaccination was 0.339 (with 95% CI= (0.338,0.340)). Moreover, the adjusted odds ratio (OR) of death and recovery after coronavirus infected for Current BCG vaccination vs. non-Current BCG vaccination were 0.258 (with 95% CI= (0.254,0.261)) and 2.151 (with 95% CI= (2.140,2.163)), respectively.CONCLUSIONSThat data in this study show the BCG might provide the protection against COVID-19, with consequent less COVID-19 infection and deaths and more rapid recovery. BCG vaccine might bridge the gap before the disease-specific vaccine is developed, but this hypothesis needs to be further tested in rigorous randomized clinical trials.

scholarly journals The association of Coronavirus Disease-19 mortality and prior bacille Calmette-Guerin vaccination: a robust ecological analysis using unsupervised machine learning

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathan A. Brooks ◽  
Ankur Puri ◽  
Sanya Garg ◽  
Swapnika Nag ◽  
Jacomo Corbo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Ecological Analysis ◽  
Bacille Calmette Guerin ◽  
Vaccination Programs ◽  
Bcg Vaccination ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Specific Modeling ◽  
Related Mortality ◽  
Country Specific

AbstractPopulation-level data have suggested that bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccination may lessen the severity of Coronavirus Disease-19 (COVID-19) prompting clinical trials in this area. Some reports have demonstrated conflicting results. We performed a robust, ecologic analysis comparing COVID-19 related mortality (CRM) between strictly selected countries based on BCG vaccination program status utilizing publicly available databases and machine learning methods to define the association between active BCG vaccination programs and CRM. Validation was performed using linear regression and country-specific modeling. CRM was lower for the majority of countries with a BCG vaccination policy for at least the preceding 15 years (BCG15). CRM increased significantly for each increase in the percent population over age 65. A higher total population of a country and BCG15 were significantly associated with improved CRM. There was a consistent association between countries with a BCG vaccination for the preceding 15 years, but not other vaccination programs, and CRM. BCG vaccination programs continued to be associated with decreased CRM even for populations < 40 years old where CRM events are less frequent.

Explore the Possible Impact of BCG Vaccination Policy on the Morbidity, Mortality, and Recovery Rates due to COVID-19 Infection. (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chuan-Hsin Chang ◽  
Yue-Cune Chang
Keyword(s):  
Odds Ratio ◽  
Randomized Clinical Trials ◽  
Vaccination Policy ◽  
Bacille Calmette Guerin ◽  
Recovery Rates ◽  
Bcg Vaccination ◽  
The World ◽  
New Form ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Disease Specific

UNSTRUCTURED BACKGROUND The Coronavirus Disease-19 (COVID-19) is the new form of an acute infectious respiratory disease and has quickly spread over most continents in the world. Recently, it has been shown that Bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG) might protect against COVID-19. This study aims to investigate the possible correlation between BCG vaccination and morbidity/mortality/recovery rate associated with COVID-19 infection. METHODS Data of COVID-19 confirmed cases, deaths, recoveries, and population were obtained from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (Accessed on 12 June, 2020). To have meaningful comparisons among countries mortality and recovery rates, we only choose those countries with COVID-19 infected cases at least 200. The Poisson regression and logistic regression were used to explore the relationship between BCG vaccination and morbidity, mortality and recovery rates. RESULTS Among those 158 countries with at least 200 COVID-19 infected cases, there were 141 countries with BCG vaccination information available. The adjusted rates ratio of COVID-19 confirmed cases for Current BCG vaccination vs. non-Current BCG vaccination was 0.339 (with 95% CI= (0.338,0.340)). Moreover, the adjusted odds ratio (OR) of death and recovery after coronavirus infected for Current BCG vaccination vs. non-Current BCG vaccination were 0.258 (with 95% CI= (0.254,0.261)) and 2.151 (with 95% CI= (2.140,2.163)), respectively. CONCLUSIONS That data in this study show the BCG might provide the protection against COVID-19, with consequent less COVID-19 infection and deaths and more rapid recovery. BCG vaccine might bridge the gap before the disease-specific vaccine is developed, but this hypothesis needs to be further tested in rigorous randomized clinical trials. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT RR2-https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.14.20131268

scholarly journals The association of Coronavirus Disease-19 mortality and prior bacille Calmette-Guerin vaccination: a robust ecological evaluation using unsupervised machine learning

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathan A Brooks ◽  
Ankur Puri ◽  
Sanya Garg ◽  
Swapnika Nag ◽  
Noshir Kaka ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Bacille Calmette Guerin ◽  
Ecological Evaluation ◽  
Vaccination Programs ◽  
Bcg Vaccination ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Specific Modeling ◽  
Related Mortality ◽  
Country Specific

Abstract Population-level data have suggested that bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccination may lessen the severity of Coronavirus Disease-19 (COVID-19) prompting clinical trials in this area. Some reports have demonstrated conflicting results. We performed a robust, ecologic analysis comparing COVID-19 related mortality (CSM) between strictly selected countries based on BCG vaccination program status utilizing publicly available databases and machine learning to define the association between active BCG vaccination programs and CSM. Validation was performed using linear regression and country-specific modeling. CSM was lower for 80% of similarly clustered countries with a BCG vaccination policy for at least the preceding 15 years (BCG15). CSM increased significantly for each increase in the percent population over age 65. The total population of a country and BCG15 were significantly associated with improved CSM. There was a consistent association between countries with a BCG vaccination for the preceding 15 years, but not other vaccination programs, and CSM.

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