scholarly journals The misleading illusion of COVID-19 confirmed case data: alternative estimates and a monitoring tool

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rogelio Macías-Ordóñez ◽  
Damián Villaseñor-Amador
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Incubation Period ◽  
Age Structure ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Monitoring Tool ◽  
Steep Increase ◽  
The Future ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Case Data ◽  
Country Specific

AbstractConfirmed Case Data have been widely cited during the current COVID-19 pandemic as an estimate of the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. However, their central role in media, official reports and decision-making may be undeserved and misleading. Previously published Infection Fatality Rates were weighted by age structure in the 50 countries with more reported deaths to obtain country-specific rates. For each country, the number of infections up to the Infection Date (23 days ago = Incubation Period + Onset to Death period) and the present percentage of immune population were estimated using Infection Fatality Rate, the number of reported deaths (which is less prone to undersampling), and projecting back to Infection Date. We then estimated a Detection Index for each country as the percentage of estimated infections that confirmed cases represent. Assuming that detection remains constant after Infection Date, we estimated the number of deaths and the estimated percentage of the population of each country expected to be immune up to 23 days into the future. Estimated Infection Fatality Rates are higher in Europe. In most countries, confirmed cases currently represent less than 30% of estimated infections on Infection Date, and this value decreases with time. Countries with flat curves throughout the pandemic show the lowest immunity percentages and these values seem unlikely to change in the near future, suggesting that they remain vulnerable to new outbreaks. Estimates for some countries with low Infection Fatality Rates suggest a still steep increase in the number of casualties in the next three weeks. Countries that did not control initial outbreaks seem to have reached higher immunity percentages, although mostly still under 5%. We provide the code to monitor the trajectories of these estimates in 178 countries throughout the COVID-19 pandemic.

The future of national tourism organisations marketing functions – there is no future?

2019 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian Hay
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Best Interests ◽  
Power Relationships ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Friendship Groups ◽  
The Future ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Marketing Information ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Near Future

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of two micro trends on the future marketing functions of national tourism organisations (NTOs): the increasing power of individuals and the irreverence of NTO’s current marketing functions. Design/methodology/approach Through a discussion of the literature driving the two identified micro-trends, a number of supportive sub-micro trends were also identified and explored. Findings The paper concludes that NTO’s have failed to recognise the growing distrust of monolithic organisations. NTO’s seem to be more concerned about their own survival, rather than providing a service to both their citizens and tourists. Also NTO’s have failed to acknowledge that tourists are much more confident in making their own decisions, based on marketing information from their own trusted “closed friendship groups”, rather than relying on NTO’s. Research limitations/implications The paper is based on a discussion of issues from only two micro-trends, but tourist decision-making processes may be more complex than suggested. Practical implications The paper concludes that in the near future there will be an increasing rejection of NTO’s marketing information, and in the longer term this may result in the demise of NTO’s. However, if NTO’s are to survive, it suggests two actions they could take to ensure their future relevance to both its citizens and tourists. Social implications Questioning whether national/state organisations always act in the best interests of its citizens, challenges the trust in NTO’s. The paper suggests that NTO’s recognise that their power relationships are more strongly linked to ideals of nationhood and endorsement by their international peers, rather than providing services to tourists. Originality/value This paper questions the implicate assumption that NTO’s should be a trusted source of marketing information. It suggests that NTO’s have failed to recognise the changing methods tourist use to help in their decision making.

scholarly journals A big data analysis of the relationship between future thinking and decision-making

2018 ◽  
Vol 115 (8) ◽  
pp. E1740-E1748 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Thorstad ◽  
Phillip Wolff
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Big Data ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Future Thinking ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Near Future ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Far Future

We use big data methods to investigate how decision-making might depend on future sightedness (that is, on how far into the future people’s thoughts about the future extend). In study 1, we establish a link between future thinking and decision-making at the population level in showing that US states with citizens having relatively far future sightedness, as reflected in their tweets, take fewer risks than citizens in states having relatively near future sightedness. In study 2, we analyze people’s tweets to confirm a connection between future sightedness and decision-making at the individual level in showing that people with long future sightedness are more likely to choose larger future rewards over smaller immediate rewards. In study 3, we show that risk taking decreases with increases in future sightedness as reflected in people’s tweets. The ability of future sightedness to predict decisions suggests that future sightedness is a relatively stable cognitive characteristic. This implication was supported in an analysis of tweets by over 38,000 people that showed that future sightedness has both state and trait characteristics (study 4). In study 5, we provide evidence for a potential mechanism by which future sightedness can affect decisions in showing that far future sightedness can make the future seem more connected to the present, as reflected in how people refer to the present, past, and future in their tweets over the course of several minutes. Our studies show how big data methods can be applied to naturalistic data to reveal underlying psychological properties and processes.

FISCAL PESSIMISM IN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE: TOCQUEVILLE'S CROSS REVISITED

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-21
Author(s):  
Isabel Cepeda ◽  
Pedro Fraile Balbín
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Political Economy ◽  
Historical Perspective ◽  
Income Redistribution ◽  
Government Control ◽  
Economic Decision ◽  
Modern School ◽  
Economic Decision Making ◽  
The Future

ABSTRACT This paper explores Alexis de Tocqueville's thought on fiscal political economy as a forerunner of the modern school of preference falsification and rational irrationality in economic decision making. A good part of the literature has misrepresented Tocqueville as an unconditional optimist regarding the future of fiscal moderation under democracy. Yet, although he initially shared the cautious optimism of most classical economists with respect to taxes under extended suffrage, Tocqueville's view turned more pessimistic in the second volume of his Democracy in America. Universal enfranchisement and democratic governments would lead to higher taxes, more intense income redistribution and government control. Under democracy, the continuous search for unconditional equality would eventually jeopardise liberty and economic growth.

Redisign of the Air Traffic Control System-Moving People through Distributed Management

1978 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 485-485
Author(s):  
John G. Kreifeldt
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Control System ◽  
Traffic Control ◽  
Air Traffic Control ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Air Traffic ◽  
Critical Function ◽  
Congressional Hearings ◽  
The Future ◽  
Traffic Control System

The present national Air Traffic Control system is a ground-centralized, man intensive system which through design allows relatively little meaningful pilot participation in decision making. The negative impact of this existing design can be measured in delays, dollars and lives. The FAA's design plans for the future ATC system will result in an even more intensive ground-centralized system with even further reduction of pilot decision making participation. In addition, controllers will also be removed from on-line decision making through anticipated automation of some or all of this critical function. Recent congressional hearings indicate that neither pilots nor controllers are happy or sanguine regarding the FAA's design for the future ATC system.

Decision making: How the past guides the future in frontal cortex

2021 ◽  
Vol 31 (6) ◽  
pp. R303-R306
Author(s):  
Bharath Chandra Talluri ◽  
Anke Braun ◽  
T.H. Donner
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Frontal Cortex ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Future
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