scholarly journals A big data analysis of the relationship between future thinking and decision-making

2018 ◽  
Vol 115 (8) ◽  
pp. E1740-E1748 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Thorstad ◽  
Phillip Wolff
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Big Data ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Future Thinking ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Near Future ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Far Future

We use big data methods to investigate how decision-making might depend on future sightedness (that is, on how far into the future people’s thoughts about the future extend). In study 1, we establish a link between future thinking and decision-making at the population level in showing that US states with citizens having relatively far future sightedness, as reflected in their tweets, take fewer risks than citizens in states having relatively near future sightedness. In study 2, we analyze people’s tweets to confirm a connection between future sightedness and decision-making at the individual level in showing that people with long future sightedness are more likely to choose larger future rewards over smaller immediate rewards. In study 3, we show that risk taking decreases with increases in future sightedness as reflected in people’s tweets. The ability of future sightedness to predict decisions suggests that future sightedness is a relatively stable cognitive characteristic. This implication was supported in an analysis of tweets by over 38,000 people that showed that future sightedness has both state and trait characteristics (study 4). In study 5, we provide evidence for a potential mechanism by which future sightedness can affect decisions in showing that far future sightedness can make the future seem more connected to the present, as reflected in how people refer to the present, past, and future in their tweets over the course of several minutes. Our studies show how big data methods can be applied to naturalistic data to reveal underlying psychological properties and processes.

Similarities in Human Visual and Declared Measures of Preference for Opposite-Sex Faces

2014 ◽  
Vol 61 (4) ◽  
pp. 301-309 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jack A. F. Griffey ◽  
Anthony C. Little
Keyword(s):  
Population Level ◽  
Three Dimensions ◽  
Sexually Dimorphic ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Facial Stimuli ◽  
Visual Preferences ◽  
Opposite Sex ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Negative Factors ◽  
The Relationship

Facial appearance in humans is associated with attraction and mate choice. Numerous studies have identified that adults display directional preferences for certain facial traits including symmetry, averageness, and sexually dimorphic traits. Typically, studies measuring human preference for these traits examine declared (e.g., choice or ratings of attractiveness) or visual preferences (e.g., looking time) of participants. However, the extent to which visual and declared preferences correspond remains relatively untested. In order to evaluate the relationship between these measures we examined visual and declared preferences displayed by men and women for opposite-sex faces manipulated across three dimensions (symmetry, averageness, and masculinity) and compared preferences from each method. Results indicated that participants displayed significant visual and declared preferences for symmetrical, average, and appropriately sexually dimorphic faces. We also found that declared and visual preferences correlated weakly but significantly. These data indicate that visual and declared preferences for manipulated facial stimuli produce similar directional preferences across participants and are also correlated with one another within participants. Both methods therefore may be considered appropriate to measure human preferences. However, while both methods appear likely to generate similar patterns of preference at the sample level, the weak nature of the correlation between visual and declared preferences in our data suggests some caution in assuming visual preferences are the same as declared preferences at the individual level. Because there are positive and negative factors in both methods for measuring preference, we suggest that a combined approach is most useful in outlining population level preferences for traits.

scholarly journals Migration, acculturation, and the maintenance of between-group cultural variation

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alex Mesoudi
Keyword(s):  
Social Learning ◽  
Cultural Values ◽  
Cultural Evolution ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Cultural Variation ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
And Migration ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Social Learning Processes

AbstractHow do migration and acculturation (i.e. psychological or behavioral change resulting from migration) affect within- and between-group cultural variation? Here I answer this question by drawing analogies between genetic and cultural evolution. Population genetic models show that migration rapidly breaks down between-group genetic structure. In cultural evolution, however, migrants or their descendants can acculturate to local behaviors via social learning processes such as conformity, potentially preventing migration from eliminating between-group cultural variation. An analysis of the empirical literature on migration suggests that acculturation is common, with second and subsequent migrant generations shifting, sometimes substantially, towards the cultural values of the adopted society. Yet there is little understanding of the individual-level dynamics that underlie these population-level shifts. To explore this formally, I present models quantifying the effect of migration and acculturation on between-group cultural variation, for both neutral and costly cooperative traits. In the models, between-group cultural variation, measured using F statistics, is eliminated by migration and maintained by conformist acculturation. The extent of acculturation is determined by the strength of conformist bias and the number of demonstrators from whom individuals learn. Acculturation is countered by assortation, the tendency for individuals to preferentially interact with culturally-similar others. Unlike neutral traits, cooperative traits can additionally be maintained by payoff-biased social learning, but only in the presence of strong sanctioning institutions. Overall, the models show that surprisingly little conformist acculturation is required to maintain realistic amounts of between-group cultural diversity. While these models provide insight into the potential dynamics of acculturation and migration in cultural evolution, they also highlight the need for more empirical research into the individual-level learning biases that underlie migrant acculturation.

scholarly journals THE NEED FOR INFORMATION AND THE ATTITUDE TOWARDS DIGITAL TECHNOLOGIES AS FACTORS OF CRITICAL AND UNCRITICAL DISSEMINATION OF PANDEMIC NEWS

2021 ◽  
pp. 170-195
Author(s):  
Elena I. Rasskazova ◽  
Galina V. Soldatova ◽  
Yulia Y. Neyaskina ◽  
Olga S. Shiriaeva
Keyword(s):  
Subjective Experience ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Modern Society ◽  
Sociodemographic Factors ◽  
Subjective Experiences ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Related Information ◽  
Digital World ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Relationship

Relevance. The modern society creates the image of a successful person as actively interacting with different information flows, including an impressive stream of news content. This paper assumes that there is a personal need for tracking and spreading news that develops in the interaction between person and digital world. The individual level of this need could explain the interaction with information (its critical and uncritical dissemination) and the subjective experience of its redundancy and inaccuracy, including those experiences and actions in a pandemic situation. The aim of the study was to reveal the relationship of the subjective need for news with personal values, beliefs about technologies (“technophilia”) and the dissemination of news about the pandemic. Method. 270 people (aged 18 to 61) filled out The short (Schwartz) Portrait Values Questionnaire (PVQ), Beliefs about New Technologies Questionnaire, Monitoring of Information about Coronavirus Scale as well as items on the subjective need for receiving and disseminating news, readiness for critical and non-critical dissemination of news about pandemics, subjective experiences of redundancy and distrust of pandemic-related information. Results. According to the results, the Need for News Scale allows assessing the subjective importance of receiving news and discussing them with other people and is characterized by sufficient consistency and factor validity. The need for regular news is more pronounced among men, older people, people with higher education, married people, people who have children, while the need to discuss news is not related to sociodemographic factors. For people, who are more prone to technophilia, it is more important to regularly receive and discuss news information with others, which, in turn, mediates the relationship between technophilia and monitoring news about coronavirus. The need for news dissemination mediates the relationship between technophilia and readiness for critical and non-critical dissemination of information about the pandemic.

scholarly journals Facing the Future: A Blueprint for a Resilient and Equitable Society: Connecting the Functional Building Blocks

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-37
Author(s):  
F. Bocken ◽  
E. Brennan ◽  
N. Claessens ◽  
D. Claeys ◽  
S. Debeaussaert ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Political Representation ◽  
Full Range ◽  
Building Blocks ◽  
Bank Loans ◽  
Ageing Population ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The Future ◽  
Range Of Functions ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Unemployed

Abstract Contemporary society is plagued by a number of issues and inconsistencies on both an environmental and a socio-economic level. Reliance on bank loans forces debtors to seek means to repay their debts, thus facilitating the current boundless economic growth in which long-term, environmental considerations typically come second. On the individual level, since virtually nothing is free, everyone has to ensure his or her own livelihood, mostly in the form of wage labour. For fear of poverty, the unemployed must adjust to the needs of the job market and risk not being able to fully explore their potential. Other socio-economic groups also face stigmatisation, and inequality is rampant as a result of the pervasive market-based pricing mechanisms. In view of these issues, it seems unjustified to accept these terms and conditions in the future, especially since the West has to cater to its ageing population and the ensuing pressure this will exert on welfare systems. Therefore, as a transdisciplinary team assisted by various experts and armed with insights from a wide <target target-type="page-num" id="p-2"/>variety of sources, we propose an alternative model of society based on the values of fairness, inclusion and transparency, with the goal of developing a representative systems map for a future, resilient and equitable society. The exact workings of this society are captured by several building blocks, which together endeavour to cover the full range of functions and responsibilities associated with society today, and jointly promote democratisation while guaranteeing equal political representation for all members of society.

scholarly journals Research on the relationship between Fresh Food E-commerce Consumption Experience and Customer Fit from the Perspective of Value Co-creatio

2020 ◽  
Vol 214 ◽  
pp. 01016
Author(s):  
Gao Wei ◽  
Xinjuan He ◽  
Huan Wang ◽  
Li Rui ◽  
Luo Jialing ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Competitive Advantage ◽  
Market Competition ◽  
The Core ◽  
Consumption Experience ◽  
Fresh Food ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Relationship

In recent years, the fresh food e-commerce platforms have been developing rapidly with facing increasingly fierce market competition. From the perspective of value co-creation, the core competitive advantage of enterprises in the future lies in creating unique values with customers. Starting from the perspective of innovation, this study explores the relationship fresh food e-commerce consumption experience and customer fit, so as to provide decision-making reference for the management of the platforms.

scholarly journals General intelligence disentangled via a generality metric for natural and artificial intelligence

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
José Hernández-Orallo ◽  
Bao Sheng Loe ◽  
Lucy Cheke ◽  
Fernando Martínez-Plumed ◽  
Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh
Keyword(s):  
Task Difficulty ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Limited Resources ◽  
General Intelligence ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Cognitive Efficiency ◽  
Comprehensive Performance ◽  
Individual Measure ◽  
Level Of Difficulty ◽  
The Individual

AbstractSuccess in all sorts of situations is the most classical interpretation of general intelligence. Under limited resources, however, the capability of an agent must necessarily be limited too, and generality needs to be understood as comprehensive performance up to a level of difficulty. The degree of generality then refers to the way an agent’s capability is distributed as a function of task difficulty. This dissects the notion of general intelligence into two non-populational measures, generality and capability, which we apply to individuals and groups of humans, other animals and AI systems, on several cognitive and perceptual tests. Our results indicate that generality and capability can decouple at the individual level: very specialised agents can show high capability and vice versa. The metrics also decouple at the population level, and we rarely see diminishing returns in generality for those groups of high capability. We relate the individual measure of generality to traditional notions of general intelligence and cognitive efficiency in humans, collectives, non-human animals and machines. The choice of the difficulty function now plays a prominent role in this new conception of generality, which brings a quantitative tool for shedding light on long-standing questions about the evolution of general intelligence and the evaluation of progress in Artificial General Intelligence.

scholarly journals Ecology and Prediction of Compensatory Growth: From Theory to Application in Forestry

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chao Li ◽  
Hugh Barclay ◽  
Bernard Roitberg ◽  
Robert Lalonde
Keyword(s):  
Compensatory Growth ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Human Society ◽  
Common Phenomenon ◽  
Partial Mortality ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
State Dependent ◽  
Dependent Model ◽  
Accelerated Growth ◽  
The Individual

Compensatory growth has been observed in forests, and it also appears as a common phenomenon in biology. Though it sometimes takes different names, the essential meanings are the same, describing the accelerated growth of organisms when recovering from a period of unfavorable conditions such as tissue damage at the individual level and partial mortality at the population level. Diverse patterns of compensatory growth have been reported in the literature, ranging from under-, to compensation-induced-equality, and to over-compensation. In this review and synthesis, we provide examples of analogous compensatory growth from different fields, clarify different meanings of it, summarize its current understanding and modeling efforts, and argue that it is possible to develop a state-dependent model under the conceptual framework of compensatory growth, aimed at explaining and predicting diverse observations according to different disturbances and environmental conditions. When properly applied, compensatory growth can benefit different industries and human society in various forms.

scholarly journals Frankly, We Do Give a Damn

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (7) ◽  
pp. 816-826 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gilad Feldman ◽  
Huiwen Lian ◽  
Michal Kosinski ◽  
David Stillwell
Keyword(s):  
Social Interactions ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Linguistic Analysis ◽  
The Other ◽  
Aggregate Level ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Common Causes ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Relationship

There are two conflicting perspectives regarding the relationship between profanity and dishonesty. These two forms of norm-violating behavior share common causes and are often considered to be positively related. On the other hand, however, profanity is often used to express one’s genuine feelings and could therefore be negatively related to dishonesty. In three studies, we explored the relationship between profanity and honesty. We examined profanity and honesty first with profanity behavior and lying on a scale in the lab (Study 1; N = 276), then with a linguistic analysis of real-life social interactions on Facebook (Study 2; N = 73,789), and finally with profanity and integrity indexes for the aggregate level of U.S. states (Study 3; N = 50 states). We found a consistent positive relationship between profanity and honesty; profanity was associated with less lying and deception at the individual level and with higher integrity at the society level.

scholarly journals Risk ratios for contagious outcomes

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (138) ◽  
pp. 20170696 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olga Morozova ◽  
Ted Cohen ◽  
Forrest W. Crawford
Keyword(s):  
Small Groups ◽  
Risk Ratio ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Infectious Disease Transmission ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Susceptibility To Infection ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Risk Ratios

Epidemiologists commonly use the risk ratio to summarize the relationship between a binary covariate and outcome, even when outcomes may be dependent. Investigations of transmissible diseases in clusters—households, villages or small groups—often report risk ratios. Epidemiologists have warned that risk ratios may be misleading when outcomes are contagious, but the nature of this error is poorly understood. In this study, we assess the meaning of the risk ratio when outcomes are contagious. We provide a mathematical definition of infectious disease transmission within clusters, based on the canonical stochastic susceptible–infective model. From this characterization, we define the individual-level ratio of instantaneous infection risks as the inferential target, and evaluate the properties of the risk ratio as an approximation of this quantity. We exhibit analytically and by simulation the circumstances under which the risk ratio implies an effect whose direction is opposite that of the true effect of the covariate. In particular, the risk ratio can be greater than one even when the covariate reduces both individual-level susceptibility to infection, and transmissibility once infected. We explain these findings in the epidemiologic language of confounding and Simpson's paradox, underscoring the pitfalls of failing to account for transmission when outcomes are contagious.

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