scholarly journals Modeling the Dynamics of the COVID-19 Population in Australia: A Probabilistic Analysis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Eshragh ◽  
Saed Alizamir ◽  
Peter Howley ◽  
Elizabeth Stojanovski
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Stochastic Process ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Break Point ◽  
List Type ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Future ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Partially Observable ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe novel Corona Virus COVID-19 arrived on Australian shores around 25 January 2020. This paper presents a novel method of dynamically modeling and forecasting the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia with a high degree of accuracy and in a timely manner using limited data; a valuable resource that can be used to guide government decision-making on societal restrictions on a daily and/or weekly basis. The “partially-observable stochastic process” used in this study predicts not only the future actual values with extremely low error, but also the percentage of unobserved COVID-19 cases in the population. The model can further assist policy makers to assess the effectiveness of several possible alternative scenarios in their decision-making processes.HighlightsThis work applies a novel and effective approach using a partially-observable stochastic process to study the dynamics of the COVID-19 population in Australia over the 1 March-22 May 2020 period.The key contributions of this work include (but are not limited to):identifying two structural break points in the numbers of new cases coinciding with where the dynamics of the COVID-19 population are altered: the first, a major break point, on 27 March 2020, is one week after implementing the “lockdown restrictions”, and the second minor point on 18 April 2020, is one week after the “Easter break”;forecasting the future daily numbers of new cases up to 28 days in advance with extremely low mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) using a relative paucity of data, namely, MAPE of 1.53% using 20 days of data to predict the number of new cases for the following 6 days, MAPE of 0.43% using 34 days of data to predict the number of new cases for the following 14 days, and MAPE of 0.20% using 55 days of data to predict the number of new cases for the following 28 days;estimating approximately 33% of COVID-19 cases as unobserved by 26 March 2020, reducing to less than 5% after implementing the Government’s constructive restrictions;predicting that the growth rate, prior to the Government’s implementation of restrictions, was on a trajectory to infect numbers equal to Australia’s entire population by 24 April 2020;estimating the dynamics of the growth rate of the COVID-19 population to slow down to a rate of 0.820 after the first break point, with a slight rise to 0.979 after the second break point;Advocating the outlined stochastic model as practically beneficial for policy makers when considering implementation and easing of virus restrictions due to the demonstrated sensitivity of the dynamics of the COVID-19 population in Australia to both major and minor system changes.The model developed in this work may further assist policy makers to consider the impact of several potential scenarios in their decision-making processes.

An Analysis of Congestion During Running Events from the Perspective of Runners: Prevalence, Impact on Safety and Satisfaction, and Preferred Controls

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sean Peckover ◽  
Aldo Raineri ◽  
Aaron T Scanlan
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Survey Data ◽  
Injury Risk ◽  
Likert Scale ◽  
Electronic Survey ◽  
Safety Concerns ◽  
The Future ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
The Impact

This study aimed to examine the views of runners regarding their experiences with congestion during running events, including its prevalence, its impact on their safety and satisfaction, and their preferred controls to mitigate congestion. Runners (n = 222) with varied experience participating in running events (1-5+ years, 5-km races to Ultramarathons, and a mixture of road, trail, and cross-country events) completed an electronic survey. The survey was developed to assess the characteristics of respondents, whether they have experienced congestion during running events, the impact of congestion they have experienced during running events on their safety and satisfaction, and their preferred controls for congestion during running events. Survey data indicated runners had experienced some form of congestion prior to the race in the start corrals (93% of respondents), as the race started (97% of respondents), and during the race while running (88% of respondents). In turn, 73% of respondents indicated their experiences with congestion somewhat to extremely (i.e., rating of at least 3 on a 5-point Likert scale) negatively impacted their satisfaction with an event, while 43% of respondents indicated congestion somewhat to extremely negatively impacted their safety during an event. Regarding the impact of congestion on runner safety, 38% of respondents indicated they had slipped, while 27% of respondents indicated they had fallen during running events due to congestion. Further, congestion was attributed to injuries sustained (9%) and not finishing a race due to sustaining an injury (5%) during running events in some respondents. Respondents identified seeding runners based on previous run times (91%), use of wave starts (91%), and designing courses with limited pinch points, U-turns, and narrow paths (89%) as their most preferred controls to mitigate congestion during running events. Respondents resoundingly indicated self-seeding is not an effective method of managing congestion during running events. This study provides novel evidence that congestion is an issue for runners during running events, subsequently diminishing their satisfaction with events and posing safety concerns. In this way, race directors should involve runners in their decision-making processes when implementing appropriate controls to combat congestion for minimising injury risk to runners and ensuring a viable participant base remains attracted to their events in the future.

Let’s Perform and Paint! The Role of Creative Mediums in Enhancing Management Research Representation

2018 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
pp. 301-308 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lakshmi Balachandran Nair ◽  
Pauline Fatien Diochon ◽  
Reka Anna Lassu ◽  
Suzanne G. Tilleman
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Management Research ◽  
Business Professionals ◽  
Missed Opportunities ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Multisensory Experience ◽  
Research Representation

The limited reach of management research results in missed opportunities to support the decision-making processes of business professionals and policy makers. To strengthen the impact of management research and overcome barriers posed by text-heavy representation, we advocate for the use of creative mediums (e.g., collage, film, poetry) to showcase the product of an inquiry, either alone or as a supplement to traditional reporting. We provide a rationale for how these mediums trigger interest, foster a multisensory experience, convey complex meaning, and spark contemporary, inclusive dialogues. Each of the four rationales is discussed by showing an example of previous use, and explaining how the respective barrier to research representation is overcome. We finally offer recommendations for how management researchers can employ creative mediums to enhance the fertility of their work.

The future of national tourism organisations marketing functions – there is no future?

2019 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian Hay
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Best Interests ◽  
Power Relationships ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Friendship Groups ◽  
The Future ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Marketing Information ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Near Future

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of two micro trends on the future marketing functions of national tourism organisations (NTOs): the increasing power of individuals and the irreverence of NTO’s current marketing functions. Design/methodology/approach Through a discussion of the literature driving the two identified micro-trends, a number of supportive sub-micro trends were also identified and explored. Findings The paper concludes that NTO’s have failed to recognise the growing distrust of monolithic organisations. NTO’s seem to be more concerned about their own survival, rather than providing a service to both their citizens and tourists. Also NTO’s have failed to acknowledge that tourists are much more confident in making their own decisions, based on marketing information from their own trusted “closed friendship groups”, rather than relying on NTO’s. Research limitations/implications The paper is based on a discussion of issues from only two micro-trends, but tourist decision-making processes may be more complex than suggested. Practical implications The paper concludes that in the near future there will be an increasing rejection of NTO’s marketing information, and in the longer term this may result in the demise of NTO’s. However, if NTO’s are to survive, it suggests two actions they could take to ensure their future relevance to both its citizens and tourists. Social implications Questioning whether national/state organisations always act in the best interests of its citizens, challenges the trust in NTO’s. The paper suggests that NTO’s recognise that their power relationships are more strongly linked to ideals of nationhood and endorsement by their international peers, rather than providing services to tourists. Originality/value This paper questions the implicate assumption that NTO’s should be a trusted source of marketing information. It suggests that NTO’s have failed to recognise the changing methods tourist use to help in their decision making.

scholarly journals Analyzing Factors Affecting the Sustainability of Land Management Practices in Mecha Woreda, Northwestern Ethiopia

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (13) ◽  
pp. 7007
Author(s):  
Habtamu Nebere ◽  
Degefa Tolossa ◽  
Amare Bantider
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Land Management ◽  
Land Degradation ◽  
Quantitative Data ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Household Heads ◽  
The Impact

In Ethiopia, the practice of land management started three decades ago in order to address the problem of land degradation and to further boost agricultural production. However, the impact of land management practices in curbing land degradation problems and improving the productivity of the agricultural sector is insignificant. Various empirical works have previously identified the determinants of the adoption rate of land management practices. However, the sustainability of land management practices after adoption, and the various factors that control the sustainability of implemented land management practices, are not well addressed. This study analyzed the factors affecting the sustainability of land management practices after implementation in Mecha Woreda, northwestern Ethiopia. The study used 378 sample respondents, selected by a systematic random sampling technique. Binary logistic regression was used to analyze the quantitative data, while the qualitative data were qualitatively and concurrently analyzed with the quantitative data. The sustained supply of fodder from the implemented land management practices, as well as improved cattle breed, increases the sustainability of the implemented land management practices. While lack of agreement in the community, lack of enforcing community bylaws, open cattle grazing, lack of benefits of implemented land management practices, acting as barrier for farming practices, poor participation of household heads during planning and decision-making processes, as well as the lack of short-term benefits, reduce the sustainability of the implemented land management practices. Thus, it is better to allow for the full participation of household heads in planning and decision-making processes to bring practical and visible results in land management practices. In addition, recognizing short-term benefits to compensate the land lost in constructing land management structures must be the strategy in land management practices. Finally, reducing the number of cattle and practicing stall feeding is helpful both for the sustainability of land management practices and the productivity of cattle. In line with this, fast-growing fodder grass species have to be introduced for household heads to grow on land management structures and communal grazing fields for stall feeding.

scholarly journals Sustainable Investments in Responsible SMEs: That’s What’s Distinguish Government VCs from Private VCs

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 25
Author(s):  
Jeaneth Johansson ◽  
Malin Malmström ◽  
Joakim Wincent
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Societal Impact ◽  
Venture Capitalists ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Micro Level ◽  
Sustainable Investments ◽  
Private Venture ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Level Performance

Researchers question the impact of governmental venture capitalists (GVC) compared to private venture capitalists (PVC), but we know little about why this difference occurs and if this criticism is justified. We observed a group of GVCs and developed a new model that describes the way that GVCs process signals pre- and post-decisions. Certain macro level factors severely undermine micro level performance, causing GVCs to financially underperform with respect to PVCs. This helped us to understand that GVCs do not make investment decisions in the same way as PVCs, and what undermines the performance of GVCs’ decision-making processes. The main goals of GVCs are to promote investments in responsible SMEs, mobilizing societal impact. We discuss that the criticism of GVC needs to be more nuanced, as they have a different role than PVC in the financial system as providers of sustainable investments in responsible SMEs.

scholarly journals Pharmacy premises licensing policy formulation: experience from Ghana

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Augustina Koduah ◽  
Reginald Sekyi-Brown ◽  
Joseph Kodjo Nsiah Nyoagbe ◽  
Daniel Amaning Danquah ◽  
Irene Kretchy
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Pharmacy Practice ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Policy And Practice ◽  
Select Committee ◽  
Limited Participation ◽  
Pharmacy Council ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Regulatory Bodies ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Licences to operate pharmacy premises are issued by statutory regulatory bodies. The Health Institutions and Facilities Act (Act 829) and Health Professions Regulatory Bodies Act (Act 857) regulate pharmacy premises and the business of supplying restricted medicines by retail, respectively, and this could create a potential regulatory overlap for pharmacy practice in Ghana. We theorise that the potential overlap of regulation duties stems from how law-makers framed issues and narratives during the formulation of these Acts. Objective To describe the policy actors involved, framing of narratives and decision-making processes relating to pharmacy premises licensing policy formulation. Methods A qualitative study was conducted and data gathered through interviewing eight key informants and reviewing Hansards, reports, bills, memoranda and Acts 829 and 857. Data were analysed to map decision-making venues, processes, actors and narratives. Results The Ministry of Health drafted the bills in July 2010 with the consensus of internal stakeholders. These were interrogated by the Parliament Select Committee on Health (with legislative power) during separate periods, and decisions made in Parliament to alter propositions of pharmacy premises regulations. Parliamentarians framed pharmacies as health facilities and reassigned their regulation from the Pharmacy Council to a new agency. The Pharmacy Council and the Pharmaceutical Society of Ghana could not participate in the decision-making processes in Parliament to oppose these alterations. The laws’ contents rested with parliamentarians as they made decisions in venues restricted to others. Legislative procedure limited participation, although non-legislative actors had some level of influence on the initial content. Conclusion Implementation of these laws would have implications for policy and practice and therefore understanding how the laws were framed and formulated is important for further reforms. We recommend additional research to investigate the impact of the implementation of these Acts on pharmacy practice and business in Ghana and the findings can serve as bargaining information for reforms.

scholarly journals Perceptions of midwives on shortage and retention of staff at a public hospital in Tshwane District

Curationis ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 42 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mosehle S. Matlala ◽  
Thanyani G. Lumadi
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Design Method ◽  
Quality Care ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
The Status ◽  
Generic Qualitative ◽  
Tertiary Hospitals ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Group Interviews ◽  
The Impact

Background: Midwifery is the backbone of women and child healthcare. The shortage of staff in maternity units is a crisis faced by many countries worldwide, including South Africa.Objectives: This study aims to explore the perceptions of midwives on the shortage and retention of staff at a public institution.Method: The study was conducted at one of the tertiary hospitals in Tshwane District, Gauteng Province. A total of 11 midwives were interviewed through face-to-face and focus group interviews. An explorative, descriptive generic qualitative design method was followed, and a non-probability, purposive sampling technique was used. Thematic coding analysis was followed for analysing data.Results: The impact of shortage of midwives was reported to be directly related to poor provision of quality care as a result of increased workload, leading to low morale and burnout. The compromised autonomy of midwives in the high obstetrics dependency units devalues the status of midwives.Conclusion: Midwives are passionate about their job, despite the hurdles related to their day-to-day work environment. They are demoralised by chronic shortage of staff and feel overworked. Staff involvement in decision-making processes is a motivational factor for midwives to stay in the profession. The midwives need to be in the centre of the decision-making processes related to their profession. The revision of the scope of practice and classification of midwifery profession away from general nursing complex by the South African Nursing Council (SANC) could place midwifery in its rightful status.

Evolution of e-participation in Greek local government

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Constantina Costopoulou ◽  
Maria Ntaliani ◽  
Filotheos Ntalianis
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Big Data ◽  
Local Government ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Local Community ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Mobile Apps ◽  
Digital Technologies ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
The Impact

Local governments are increasingly developing electronic participation initiatives, expecting citizen involvement in local community affairs. Our objective was to assess e-participation and the extent of its change in local government in Greece. Using content analysis for 325 Greek municipal websites, we assessed e-participation status in 2017 and 2018 and examined the impact of change between these years. The assessment regards two consecutive years since the adoption of digital technologies by municipalities has been rapid. The main findings show that Greek local governments have made significant small- to medium-scale changes, in order to engage citizens and local societies electronically. We conclude that the integration of advanced digital technologies in municipalities remains underdeveloped. We propose that Greek municipalities need to consider incorporating new technologies, such as mobile apps, social media and big data, as well as e-decision making processes, in order to eliminate those obstacles that hinder citizen engagement in local government. Moreover, the COVID-19 outbreak has highlighted the need for enhancing e-participation and policymakers’ coordination through advanced digital technologies.

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