scholarly journals Predictable county-level estimates of R0 for COVID-19 needed for public health planning in the USA

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony R. Ives ◽  
Claudio Bozzuto
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Population Density ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Communicable Disease ◽  
Health Planning ◽  
Spatial Location ◽  
County Level ◽  
Rate Of Spread ◽  
Geographical Regions ◽  
The Usa

The basic reproduction number, R0, determines the rate of spread of a communicable disease and therefore gives fundamental information needed to plan public health interventions. Estimated R0 values are only useful, however, if they accurately predict the future potential rate of spread. Using mortality records, we estimated the rate of spread of COVID-19 among 160 counties and county-aggregates in the USA. Among-county variance in the rate of spread was explained by four factors: the timing of the county-level outbreak, population size, population density, and spatial location. Of these, the effect of timing is explained by early steps that people and governments took to reduce transmission, and population size is explained by the sample size of deaths that affects the statistical ability to estimate R0. For predictions of future spread, population density is important, likely because it scales the average contact rate among people, while spatial location can be explained by differences in the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 strains in different geographical regions of the USA. The high predictability of R0 based on population density and spatial location allowed us to extend estimates to all 3109 counties in the lower 48 States. The high variation of R0 among counties argues for public health policies that are enacted at the county level for controlling COVID-19.

scholarly journals Estimating and explaining the spread of COVID-19 at the county level in the USA

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony R. Ives ◽  
Claudio Bozzuto
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Population Density ◽  
Communicable Disease ◽  
Spatial Location ◽  
County Level ◽  
Spike Gene ◽  
Rate Of Spread ◽  
Fundamental Information ◽  
Size Population ◽  
The Usa

AbstractThe basic reproduction number, R0, determines the rate of spread of a communicable disease and therefore gives fundamental information needed to plan public health interventions. Using mortality records, we estimated the rate of spread of COVID-19 among 160 counties and county-aggregates in the USA at the start of the epidemic. We show that most of the high among-county variance is explained by four factors (R2 = 0.70): the timing of outbreak, population size, population density, and spatial location. For predictions of future spread, population density and spatial location are important, and for the latter we show that SARS-CoV-2 strains containing the G614 mutation to the spike gene are associated with higher rates of spread. Finally, the high predictability of R0 allows extending estimates to all 3109 counties in the conterminous 48 states. The high variation of R0 argues for public health policies enacted at the county level for controlling COVID-19.

scholarly journals Evidentiary needs of US public health departments with a mission to advance equity and health: a qualitative analysis

BMJ Open ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (9) ◽  
pp. e022033 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kimberly Danae Cauley Narain ◽  
Frederick J Zimmerman ◽  
Jessica Richards ◽  
Jonathan Fielding ◽  
Brian Cole ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
Qualitative Interviews ◽  
Grant Writing ◽  
Health Departments ◽  
Scientific Content ◽  
Public Health Departments ◽  
Geographical Regions ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Public Health Officials

ObjectivesWe sought the perspectives of lead public health officials working to improve health equity in the USA regarding the drivers of scientific evidence use, the supply of scientific evidence and the gap between their evidentiary needs and the available scientific evidence.DesignWe conducted 25 semistructured qualitative interviews (April 2017 to June 2017) with lead public health officials and their designees. All interviews were transcribed and thematically analysed.SettingPublic health departments from all geographical regions in the USA.ParticipantsParticipants included lead public health officials (20) and their designees (5) from public health departments that were either accredited or part of the Big Cities Health Coalition.ResultsMany respondents were using scientific evidence in the context of grant writing. Professional organisations and government agencies, rather than specific researchers or research journals, were the primary sources of scientific evidence. Respondents wanted to see more locally tailored cost-effectiveness research and often desired to participate in the planning phase of research projects. In addition to the scientific content recommendations, respondents felt the usefulness of scientific evidence could be improved by simplifying it and framing it for diverse audiences including elected officials and community stakeholders.ConclusionsRespondents are eager to use scientific evidence but also need to have it designed and packaged in ways that meet their needs.

scholarly journals Spread of new mutations through space

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyle Shaw ◽  
Peter Beerli
Keyword(s):  
Population Density ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Simulation Software ◽  
Effective Population ◽  
Random Drift ◽  
Rate Of Spread ◽  
Large Populations ◽  
Discrete Population ◽  
Explicit Simulation ◽  
New Mutations

The terms population size and population density are often used interchangeably, when in fact they are quite different. When viewed in a spatial landscape, density is defined as the number of individuals within a square unit of distance, while population size is simply the total count of a population. In discrete population genetics models, the effective population size is known to influence the interaction between selection and random drift with selection playing a larger role in large populations while random drift has more influence in smaller populations. Using a spatially explicit simulation software we investigate how population density affects the flow of new mutations through a geographical space. Using population density, selectional advantage, and dispersal distributions, a model is developed to predict the speed at which the new allele will travel, obtaining more accurate results than current diffusion approximations provide. We note that the rate at which a neutral mutation spreads begins to decay over time while the rate of spread of an advantageous allele remains constant. We also show that new advantageous mutations spread faster in dense populations.

scholarly journals State-by-State estimates of R0 at the start of COVID-19 outbreaks in the USA

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony R Ives ◽  
Claudio Bozzuto
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
New York ◽  
New York State ◽  
State Space Model ◽  
Strongly Correlated ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Rate Of Spread ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Death Count

We estimated the initial rate of spread (r0) and basic reproduction number (R0) for States in the USA experiencing COVID-19 epidemics by analyzing death data time series using a time-varying autoregressive state-space model. The initial spread varied greatly among States, with the highest r0 = 0.31 [0.23, 0.39] (95% CI) in New York State, corresponding to R0 = 6.4 [4.3, 9.0] (95% CI). The variation in initial R0 was strongly correlated with the peak daily death count among States, showing that the initial R0 anticipates subsequent challenges in controlling epidemics. Furthermore, the variation in initial R0 implies different needs for public health measures. Finally, the States that relaxed public health measures early were not those with the lowest risks of resurgence, highlighting the need for science to guide public health policies.

scholarly journals Demography and public health

2021 ◽  
pp. 317-334
Author(s):  
Emily Grundy ◽  
Michael Murphy
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Health Planning ◽  
Health Profile ◽  
Demographic Trends ◽  
Healthcare Needs ◽  
Demographic Methods ◽  
And Migration ◽  
Size And Structure

The health and healthcare needs of a population cannot be measured or met without knowledge of its size and characteristics. Demography is the scientific study of population and is concerned both with the measurement, or estimation, of population size and structure and with population dynamics—the interplay between fertility, mortality, and migration which determines population change. These are pre-requisites for making the forecasts about future population size and structure which largely determine the health profile of a population and should underpin public health planning. This chapter presents information on demographic methods and data sources, their application to health and population issues, information on demographic trends and their implications, and the major theories about demographic change. The aim is to illustrate and elucidate the complex inter-relationship between population change and human health.

Viewpoints: Where are all the gay guys? Using Google Trends to Inform the Population Size Estimation and Spatial Distribution and of Gay, Bisexual, and Other Men Who Have Sex with Men (Preprint)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kiffer Card ◽  
Nathan J. Lachowsky ◽  
Robert S. Hogg
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Population Distribution ◽  
Health Planning ◽  
Population Size Estimation ◽  
Google Trends ◽  
Search Term ◽  
Size Estimation ◽  
Sex With Men

BACKGROUND We must triangulate data sources to understand best the spatial distribution and population size of marginalized populations to empower public health leaders to address population-specific needs. Existing population size estimation techniques are difficult and limited. Passive surveillance strategies that utilize internet and social media could enhance, validate, and triangulate these estimates. OBJECTIVE We explored the Google Trends platform to approximate an estimate of the spatial heterogeneity of the population distribution of gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (gbMSM). METHODS This was done by comparing the prevalence of the “gay porn” search term to the “porn” search term. RESULTS Our results suggest that most cities have a gbMSM population size between 2% and 4% of their total population, with large urban centres having higher estimates relative to rural or suburban areas. CONCLUSIONS This represents nearly a doubling of sample size estimates compared to other methods, which typically find that between 2% and 4% of the male population are gbMSM. However, we note that this method is limited by unequal coverage in internet usage across Canada and differences in the frequency of porn use by gender and sexual orientation. Nevertheless, we argue that Google Trends estimates provides, for most public health planning purposes, adequate city-level estimates of gbMSM population size in regions with a high prevalence of internet access and for purposes in which a precise or narrow estimate of the population size is not required. Furthermore, it does so in less than a minute, at no cost – making it extremely timely and cost effective relative to more precise (and complex)

scholarly journals Black Lives Matter protests and COVID-19 cases: relationship in two databases

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory Neyman ◽  
William Dalsey
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Population Size ◽  
County Level ◽  
Mass Gatherings ◽  
Black Lives Matter ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Population Sizes ◽  
Case Rate ◽  
Significant Regression ◽  
The City

Abstract Background The coincidence of Black Lives Matter (BLM) protests with the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA has raised concerns about the safety of mass gatherings for political causes. This study examines two databases to probe any correlation between protests and increases of COVID-19 case rates afterward. Methods A BLM protest aggregator and a county-level COVID-19 database were crosswalked, matching the city that the protest occurred in with the county and its case rates at 0, 1, 2 and 3 weeks after the index protest, and was compared with a control county in the same state with the nearest match of population size and case rate at Week 0. Results In the 22 days after the killing of George Floyd, there were 326 counties participating in 868 protests, attended by an estimated 757 077 protestors. The median case rate at Week 3 was 0.0049 in protest counties versus 0.0041 in control counties, which was found to be statistically significant. Regression analysis found that each individual protestor contributed to the case rate by 7.65 × 10−9, which was not statistically significant. Conclusion Although the increase was statistically significant, it was very small in magnitude and likely due to limitations of significantly different population sizes in comparators.

Building Capacity of the Public Health Education Workforce Through Partnerships

2003 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 49-59
Author(s):  
Mark Tomita
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Disparities ◽  
Health Education ◽  
Public Health Education ◽  
Professional Associations ◽  
State University ◽  
Cd Rom ◽  
The Public ◽  
Prevention Services ◽  
The Usa

The Global Health Disparities CD-ROM Project reaffirmed the value of professional associations partnering with academic institutions to build capacity of the USA public health education workforce to meet the challenges of primary prevention services. The Society for Public Health Education (SOPHE) partnered with the California State University, Chico to produce a CD-ROM that would advocate for global populations that are affected by health disparities while providing primary resources for public health educators to use in programming and professional development. The CD-ROM development process is discussed

Building Capacity of the Public Health Education Workforce Through Partnerships: The Global Health Disparities CD-ROM Project

2003 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 49-59
Author(s):  
Mark Tomita
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Disparities ◽  
Health Education ◽  
Global Health ◽  
Public Health Education ◽  
Professional Associations ◽  
State University ◽  
Cd Rom ◽  
Prevention Services ◽  
The Usa

The Global Health Disparities CD-ROM Project reaffirmed the value of professional associations partnering with academic institutions to build capacity of the USA public health education workforce to meet the challenges of primary prevention services. The Society for Public Health Education (SOPHE) partnered with the California State University, Chico to produce a CD-ROM that would advocate for global populations that are affected by health disparities while providing primary resources for public health educators to use in programming and professional development. The CD-ROM development process is discussed.

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