scholarly journals State-by-State estimates of R0 at the start of COVID-19 outbreaks in the USA

Author(s):  
Anthony R Ives ◽  
Claudio Bozzuto

We estimated the initial rate of spread (r0) and basic reproduction number (R0) for States in the USA experiencing COVID-19 epidemics by analyzing death data time series using a time-varying autoregressive state-space model. The initial spread varied greatly among States, with the highest r0 = 0.31 [0.23, 0.39] (95% CI) in New York State, corresponding to R0 = 6.4 [4.3, 9.0] (95% CI). The variation in initial R0 was strongly correlated with the peak daily death count among States, showing that the initial R0 anticipates subsequent challenges in controlling epidemics. Furthermore, the variation in initial R0 implies different needs for public health measures. Finally, the States that relaxed public health measures early were not those with the lowest risks of resurgence, highlighting the need for science to guide public health policies.

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
M Komaroff ◽  
A A Belhouchet

Abstract Background Was the world prepared to face the pandemic with a standard strategy? Objectives To evaluate the association between public health interventions against the COVID-19 outbreak and the outcome. Methods The observational study included data on incidence of confirmed COVID-19 cases (outcome) and public health non-pharmaceutical interventions (exposure) from five countries: France, Italy, Japan, South Korea, and the USA, December 31, 2019 through April 12, 2020. The public health measures were grouped into five categories: lockdown, movement restrictions, public health measures, social (including social distancing) and economic measures, and use of facial mask. The multiple linear regressions were utilized to test the hypothesis that implementation of some public health measures was associated with the change in the incident number of COVID-19 cases, 2-sided, α = 0.05. Results The incidence of COVID-19 would be significantly greater without lockdown (1.89 times, p-value <.0001), public health and economic measures (25.17, p-value <.0001), and using masks (11.93, p-value=0.002), assuming that all other public health policies are the same. The effectiveness increases with earlier time of implementation. Among considered countries, South Korea was the most efficacious, where all measures were statistically significantly efficacious (p-value <0.05). Conclusions The findings demonstrate an association between public health measures and the outcome. The experience from South Korea should be studied further as the most effective non-pharmacological approach to fight the disease. This paper is the first step to develop the standardized approach utilizing the public health interventions to be applied effectively to the globe population. Key messages the most effective measures to control the COVID-19, and future outbreaks. The effect of particular measure varied by country and time of implementation.


2020 ◽  
Vol 42 (3) ◽  
pp. 448-450
Author(s):  
Wil Lieberman-Cribbin ◽  
Naomi Alpert ◽  
Adam Gonzalez ◽  
Rebecca M Schwartz ◽  
Emanuela Taioli

Abstract In the midst of widespread community transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in New York, residents have sought information about COVID-19. We analyzed trends in New York State (NYS) and New York City (NYC) data to quantify the extent of COVID-19-related queries. Data on the number of 311 calls in NYC, Google Trend data on the search term ‘Coronavirus’ and information about trends in COVID-19 cases in NYS and the USA were compiled from multiple sources. There were 1228 994 total calls to 311 between 22 January 2020 and 22 April 2020, with 50 845 calls specific to COVID-19 in the study period. The proportion of 311 calls related to COVID-19 increased over time, while the ‘interest over time’ of the search term ‘Coronavirus’ has exponentially increased since the end of February 2020. It is vital that public health officials provide clear and up-to-date information about protective measures and crucial communications to respond to information-seeking behavior across NYC.


1971 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 9-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
John S. Sinacore

Recognizing that problems arising from human ecology do not represent medical failure so much as educational failure, and that prevention is cheaper in the long run than rehabilitation, the New York State Education Department is implementing a course of study in the Health Sciences incorporating knowledge from the disciplines of medical science and public health, aimed at prevention through education. Curriculum materials for 4th grade through high school, developed by the State Education Department, deal initially with the nature and proper use of drugs as a basis for understanding drug abuse. Drug education, to be effective as a drug abuse deterrent, should be taught by a well prepared health education teacher within the context of health education which touches on areas of mental health, physical health, consumer health, public health, safety and pharmacology. Intensive teacher training programs are underway in six institutions of higher education in New York State to prepare teachers licensed in other educational areas to fulfill state certification requirements in health education. Additional teachers are being trained to teach inservice courses in their own districts; their $600 salary per 30 hour course taught is paid by the State Education Department. The goal is to reach 7500 teachers during this school year. The program participants are brought into contact with consultants from many related fields. A learn-by-doing method is utilized involving group processes and activities designed to encourage individuals to become responsible for their own learning and the learning of others.


2021 ◽  
Vol 111 (10) ◽  
pp. 1780-1783
Author(s):  
Thomas E. Smith ◽  
Ian T. Rodgers ◽  
Daniel J. Silverman ◽  
Sally R. Dreslin ◽  
Mark Olfson ◽  
...  

Individuals with serious mental illness are particularly vulnerable to COVID-19. The New York State (NYS) Office of Mental Health implemented patient and staff rapid testing, quarantining, and vaccination to limit COVID-19 spread in 23 state-operated psychiatric hospitals between November 2020 and February 2021. COVID-19 infection rates in inpatients and staff decreased by 96% and 71%, respectively, and the NYS population case rate decreased by 6%. Repeated COVID-19 testing and vaccination should be priority interventions for state-operated psychiatric hospitals. (Am J Public Health. 2021;111(10):1780–1783. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306444 )


PEDIATRICS ◽  
1974 ◽  
Vol 53 (1) ◽  
pp. 124-124
Author(s):  
Selig H. Katz

In a letter published in the August 1973 issue, Dr. Hania W. Ris suggests routine screening of women for gonorrhea. A recently enacted amendment to the Public Health Law of New York State requires all physicians, clinics or facilities providing gynecological, obstetrical, contraceptive, sterilization or termination-of-pregnancy services or treatment to offer to administer to every New York State resident coming for such services or treatment, appropriate tests for the detection of syphilis and gonorrhea.


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