scholarly journals A novel epidemiological model for COVID-19

Author(s):  
Mauro Gaspari

COVID-19 is characterized by a large number of asymptomatic and mild cases that are difficult to detect; most of them remain unknown, still having an important role in the transmission of the disease, this makes the pandemic difficult to control. The purpose of this research is to develop an epidemiological model that allows to estimate the number of unknown/asymptomatic cases in a given area. The SEIAMPR system, a novel simulation based model for COVID-19 is designed and implemented in Python. The intuition of the model is simple: about 80% of COVID-19 infected people evolve as asymptomatic or with a mild clinical course, many of them remain unknown to the authorities, some of them including those in critical conditions are eventually detected and classified as positive cases. The simulator reproduces this process using an adaptive method integrated with official data. The simulator has been used for modelling the outbreak in 21 regions in Italy. The positive effects of lockdown policies are demonstrated: unknown active cases 12 days after the lockdown (March the 21th) ranged from 284101 to 374038, e.g. many more than all the official cases in Italy, reducing to 10213/20949 the reopening day. The number of unknown active cases at the beginning of June in the Lombardia region ranged from 6813 to 13390 demanding particular attention. SEIAMPR is simple to tune and integrate with official data, it emerges as an up-and-coming tool for reporting the effect of lockdown measures, the impact of the disease on the population, and the remaining unknown active cases for evaluating the timing of exit strategies.

Author(s):  
G. Bernardini ◽  
T. M. Ferreira

Abstract. Earthquake resilience in historical centres is significantly affected by interactions between the built environment, defined as the network of building heritage and surrounding open spaces, and hosted population. Building vulnerability, earthquake-induced effects and population’s exposure mainly influence the first emergency phases. In the immediate post-earthquake evacuation conditions, people should leave their position to gather in assembly points where first responders can rescue them. Thus, joint analyses of building damage and evacuation flows along the evacuation paths become essential to determine the risk levels for the urban scenario and to provide risk-mitigation solutions. This paper tries to reach this goal by adopting a holistic simulation-based approach. A simplified vulnerability assessment method is used to evaluate the seismic performance of masonry façade walls and to estimate debris depth on outdoor spaces. An existing earthquake pedestrians’ evacuation simulator is used to evaluate the probable pedestrians’ choices in such evacuation post-earthquake damage scenarios. Then, risk indexes, combining damage assessment and evacuation results, are provided to quantify evacuation safety and to outline critical conditions in the urban layout. Finally, the impact resulting from the consideration of a series of resilience-increasing strategies is simulated and discussed from the proposed risk indexes. A part of the historic centre of Coimbra, Portugal, one of the oldest and most relevant Portuguese cities, is used in this work as a pilot case study. Results show how the method could be used by Local Authorities and Civil Protection Bodies to outline, analyse and coordinate resilience-increasing strategies at the urban scale.


2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 273-285
Author(s):  
Saber Azami Aghdash ◽  
Ahmad Mousavi ◽  
Salar Mohammaddokht ◽  
Hojatolah Gharaee

Background and Objectives Action research has become popular in health system research and problem solving. The aim of this study was to introduce the concepts and applications of action research in health system. Material and Methods This study reviewed the related documents and literatures in Persian and English Language by comprensive search in web-based resources. Results This study compares the Simmons model and other methods and provides a successful model for the use of pilot research in the health system. Conclusion This study recommends utilization of action research in solving health system problems in practice and also for learning in environment. Extended Abstract Background and Objectives Many experts believed that classic research methods have not been sufficient to help solve numerous problems faced by the health system. Thus, researchers have developed a new approach to this problem called "action research."The results of various studies in different countries have confirmed positive effects of this type of study in improving the performance of the health system. The aim of this study was to introduce the concepts and applications of action research in improving the performance of the health system. Material and Methods The present study is a revie of the existing documents and literature. Relevant books and websites were searched through to find various approaches and methods of action research. In order to review action research studies conducted in the field of health and other sectors, valid Persian and English electronic references were reviewed by using the keywords "action research", "health system" and "health" in 2020. At first, definitions and key concepts of action research in the health system were discussed, then the model introduced by Simmons in 1995 for action research, as a comprehensive model, was described and examples of action research studies conducted worldwide, were provided. Results In action research, the researcher with the participation of stakeholders identifies the problems in the system and collects information to solve the problems. Then, in accordance with the conditions of the organization and the solutions provided, the researcher tries to improve the performance. Finally, the results of interventions are evaluated. For this reason, action research is known as a method to improve performance and quality. The Simmons model includes subject identification, data collection, planning, implementation, evaluation and feedback. By summarizing the information obtained, the following steps can be suggested for conducting successful action research in health system: determining the subject of the research, describing the current situation, collecting information, analyzing and interpreting data, selecting and implementing a new solution, collecting information, evaluating the impact of the new action and determining its validity, revising and presenting the final report. Action research includes looking (gathering information and describing the current situation), thinking (discovering what is happening, interpreting it and explaining why and how) and acting (planning, implementing and evaluating). FOCUS PDCA is a proposed model for action research. This model includes 9 steps: finding a problem, organizing the research team, clarifying the process, understanding the causes of change, selecting an item to improve, planning, doing, checking and acting. Conclusion One of the most important reasons for the success of and attention to action research is the inadequacy of traditional research in answering basic questions and problems in the field of health, and the reason for this inefficiency is the gap between traditional research and the needs of the health system, a weakness that can be properly addressed by action research. Finally, it is recommended that if health managers are looking to promote standards and improve the health system in practice and in their specific situation, it is better to continue action research. Since action research is one of the most practical and basic types of research that provides realprospects to promote standards and improve the health system by analyzing the existing issues and problems and taking action to solve them. Practical implications of research Action research is one of the most central and basic types of research that provides the ground for raising standards and improving the health system by analyzing existing issues and problems and taking action to address them. Ethical considerations In selecting sources, extracting and also in reporting the content of sources and studies, the principle of fidelity and ethical principles have been observed. Conflict of interest The authors of the article declare that there is no conflict of interest for the authors of the article. Acknowledgement The authors of the article thank the Vice Chancellor for Research and Technology of Tabriz University of Medical Sciences for approving and financially supporting this study in the form of project number IR.TBZMED.REC.1397.154.


Author(s):  
Sang Nguyen Minh

This study uses the DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) method to estimate the technical efficiency index of 34 Vietnamese commercial banks in the period 2007-2015, and then it analyzes the impact of income diversification on the operational efficiency of Vietnamese commercial banks through a censored regression model - the Tobit regression model. Research results indicate that income diversification has positive effects on the operational efficiency of Vietnamese commercial banks in the research period. Based on study results, in this research some recommendations forpolicy are given to enhance the operational efficiency of Vietnam’s commercial banking system.


2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 1131-1135
Author(s):  
Tomas Hambili Paulo Sanjuluca ◽  
◽  
Ricardo Correia ◽  
Anabela Antunes de Almeida ◽  
Ana Gloria Diaz Martinez ◽  
...  

Introduction: In order to have a good assessment of the quality of maternal and child health care, it is essential that there is up-to-date and reliable information. Objective: To evaluate the impact of the implementation of a computerized database of clinical processes in the admission, archive and medical statistics section, of Maternity hospital Irene Neto/Lubango-Angola. Methodology: A descriptive study with a quantitative and qualitative approach to carry out a retrospective case study deliveries and newborns, records from 2014 to 2017. Final considerations: The implementation of this project may contribute to the improvement of clinical management support management of the hospital as well as facilitating access to information for research and scientific production.


2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 209-222
Author(s):  
Philipp K. Görs ◽  
Henning Hummert ◽  
Anne Traum ◽  
Friedemann W. Nerdinger

Digitalization is a megatrend, but there is relatively little knowledge about its consequences for service work in general and specifically in knowledge-intensive business services (KIBS). We studied the impact of digitalization on psychological consequences for employees in tax consultancies as a special case of KIBS. We compare two tax consulting jobs with very different job demands, those of tax consultants (TCs) and assistant tax consultants (ATCs). The results show that the extent of digitalization at the workplace level for ATCs correlates significantly positively with their job satisfaction. For TCs, the same variable correlates positively with their work engagement. These positive effects of digitalization are mediated in the case of ATCs by the impact on important job characteristics. In the case of TCs, which already have very good working conditions, the impact is mediated by the positive effect on self-efficacy. Theoretical and practical consequences of these results are discussed.


Author(s):  
N. Maidanovych ◽  

The purpose of this work is to review and analyze the main results of modern research on the impact of climate change on the agro-sphere of Ukraine. Results. Analysis of research has shown that the effects of climate change on the agro-sphere are already being felt today and will continue in the future. The observed climate changes in recent decades have already significantly affected the shift in the northern direction of all agro-climatic zones of Europe, including Ukraine. From the point of view of productivity of the agro-sphere of Ukraine, climate change will have both positive and negative consequences. The positives include: improving the conditions of formation and reducing the harvesting time of crop yields; the possibility of effective introduction of late varieties (hybrids), which require more thermal resources; improving the conditions for overwintering crops; increase the efficiency of fertilizer application. Model estimates of the impact of climate change on wheat yields in Ukraine mainly indicate the positive effects of global warming on yields in the medium term, but with an increase in the average annual temperature by 2 ° C above normal, grain yields are expected to decrease. The negative consequences of the impact of climate change on the agrosphere include: increased drought during the growing season; acceleration of humus decomposition in soils; deterioration of soil moisture in the southern regions; deterioration of grain quality and failure to ensure full vernalization of grain; increase in the number of pests, the spread of pathogens of plants and weeds due to favorable conditions for their overwintering; increase in wind and water erosion of the soil caused by an increase in droughts and extreme rainfall; increasing risks of freezing of winter crops due to lack of stable snow cover. Conclusions. Resource-saving agricultural technologies are of particular importance in the context of climate change. They include technologies such as no-till, strip-till, ridge-till, which make it possible to partially store and accumulate mulch on the soil surface, reduce the speed of the surface layer of air and contribute to better preservation of moisture accumulated during the autumn-winter period. And in determining the most effective ways and mechanisms to reduce weather risks for Ukrainian farmers, it is necessary to take into account the world practice of climate-smart technologies.


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