Health Impact Assessment of PM2.5 attributable mortality from the September 2020 Washington State Wildfire Smoke Episode

AbstractMajor wildfires that started in the summer of 2020 along the west coast of the U.S. have made PM2.5 concentrations in cities in this region rank among the highest in the world. Regions of Washington were impacted by active wildfires in the state, and by aged wood smoke transported from fires in Oregon and California. This study aims to assess the population health impact of increased PM2.5 concentrations attributable to the wildfire. Average daily PM2.5 concentrations for each county before and during the 2020 Washington wildfire episode were obtained from the Washington Department of Ecology. Utilizing previously established associations of short-term mortality for PM2.5, we estimated excess mortality for Washington attributable to the increased PM2.5 levels. On average, PM2.5 concentrations increased 91.7 μg/m3 during the wildfire episode. Each week of wildfire smoke exposures was estimated to result in 87.6 (95% CI: 70.9, 103.1) cases of increased all-cause mortality, 19.1 (95% CI: 10.0, 28.2) increased cardiovascular disease deaths, and 9.4 (95% CI: 5.1, 13.5) increased respiratory disease deaths. Because wildfire smoke episodes are likely to continue impacting the Pacific Northwest in future years, continued preparedness and mitigations to reduce exposures to wildfire smoke are necessary to avoid this excess health burden.

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The Power and Politics of Health Impact Assessment in the Pacific Northwest Coal Export Debate

ExtrACTION ◽

10.4324/9781315225579-6 ◽

2017 ◽

pp. 77-92

Author(s):

Moriah McSharry McGrath

Keyword(s):

Impact Assessment ◽

Pacific Northwest ◽

Health Impact Assessment ◽

Health Impact ◽

The Pacific

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Significant spike in excess mortality in England in winter 2014/15 – influenza the likely culprit

Epidemiology and Infection ◽

10.1017/s0950268818001152 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 146 (9) ◽

pp. 1106-1113 ◽

Cited By ~ 13

Author(s):

R. G. Pebody ◽

H. K. Green ◽

F. Warburton ◽

M. Sinnathamby ◽

J. Ellis ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Poisson Regression ◽

Influenza A ◽

Excess Mortality ◽

Extreme Temperature ◽

The Elderly ◽

Health Impact ◽

Poisson Regression Model ◽

Potential Health ◽

All Cause Mortality

AbstractSignificant increases in excess all-cause mortality, particularly in the elderly, were observed during the winter of 2014/15 in England. With influenza A(H3N2) the dominant circulating influenza A subtype, this paper determines the contribution of influenza to this excess controlling for weather. A standardised multivariable Poisson regression model was employed with weekly all-cause deaths the dependent variable for the period 2008–2015. Adjusting for extreme temperature, a total of 26 542 (95% CI 25 301–27 804) deaths in 65+ and 1942 (95% CI 1834–2052) in 15–64-year-olds were associated with influenza from week 40, 2014 to week 20, 2015. This is compatible with the circulation of influenza A(H3N2). It is the largest estimated number of influenza-related deaths in England since prior to 2008/09. The findings highlight the potential health impact of influenza and the important role of the annual influenza vaccination programme that is required to protect the population including the elderly, who are vulnerable to a severe outcome.

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Low Mortality of Larval Lampreys from Electrofishing, Suction-pumping, Anesthesia, and Handling

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management ◽

10.3996/052017-jfwm-046 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 8 (2) ◽

pp. 640-647 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Jeffrey C. Jolley ◽

Christina T. Uh ◽

Gregory S. Silver ◽

Timothy A. Whitesel

Keyword(s):

Pacific Northwest ◽

Control Group ◽

Long Term Effects ◽

Negative Effects ◽

Short Term ◽

Important Species ◽

Pacific Lamprey ◽

The Pacific ◽

Delayed Mortality

Abstract Native lamprey populations are declining worldwide. In the Pacific Northwest focus on conservation and management of these ecologically and culturally important species has increased. Concern has emerged regarding the effects of sampling and handling of lamprey, with little to no attention given to the larval lifestage. We monitored the survival of larval Pacific Lamprey Entosphenus tridentatus and Lampetra spp. after backpack electrofishing, deepwater electrofishing and suction-pumping, anesthesia, and handling. We performed survival trials on wild-caught lamprey (n = 15 larvae in each trial) collected from the Clackamas River drainage in Oregon, USA, coupled with control group trials from lamprey sourced from a hatchery (n = 10 larvae). Short-term (96 h) survival was >98% with only one observed mortality. Delayed mortality (1 wk) was observed for four individuals that had fungus; two of those were positive for the bacteria Aeromonas hyrdrophila. We recorded blood hematocrit as a secondary measure of stress. The baseline, nonstressed larvae hematocrit levels did not differ from those of fish that had undergone stress through electrofishing, suction-pumping, and handling without anesthesia. Electrofishing, suction-pumping, and anesthesia showed no short-term negative effects on larval lamprey although potential long-term effects remain unstudied. These techniques appear to provide efficient and relatively safe methods for collecting and surveying larval lamprey.

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Weather Regimes and Forecast Errors in the Pacific Northwest

Weather and Forecasting ◽

10.1175/2008waf2222172.1 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 24 (3) ◽

pp. 829-842 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Lynn A. McMurdie ◽

Joseph H. Casola

Keyword(s):

Sea Level ◽

Pacific Northwest ◽

West Coast ◽

Forecast Errors ◽

Short Term ◽

Sea Level Pressure ◽

Weather Regimes ◽

Numerical Weather ◽

Level Pressure ◽

The Pacific

Abstract Despite overall improvements in numerical weather prediction and data assimilation, large short-term forecast errors of sea level pressure and 2-m temperature still occur. This is especially true for the west coast of North America where short-term numerical weather forecasts of surface low pressure systems can have large position and central pressure errors. In this study, forecast errors of sea level pressure and temperature in the Pacific Northwest are related to the shape of the large-scale flow aloft. Applying a hierarchical limited-contour clustering algorithm to historical 500-hPa geopotential height data produces four distinct weather regimes. The Rockies ridge regime, which exhibits a ridge near the axis of the Rocky Mountains and nearly zonal flow across the Pacific, experiences the highest magnitude and frequency of large sea level pressure errors. On the other hand, the coastal ridge regime, which exhibits a ridge aligned with the North American west coast, experiences the highest magnitude and frequency of large 2-m minimum temperature errors.

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Impacts of Assimilating Smartphone Pressure Observations on Forecast Skill during Two Case Studies in the Pacific Northwest

Weather and Forecasting ◽

10.1175/waf-d-18-0085.1 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 33 (5) ◽

pp. 1375-1396 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Conor McNicholas ◽

Clifford F. Mass

Keyword(s):

Case Studies ◽

Pacific Northwest ◽

Weather Prediction ◽

Test Bed ◽

Short Term ◽

The Pacific ◽

Android App ◽

Global Surface ◽

Correction Strategies

Abstract Over a half-billion smartphones are now capable of measuring atmospheric pressure, potentially providing a global surface observing network of unprecedented density and coverage. An earlier study by the authors described an Android app, uWx, that served as a test bed for advanced quality control and bias correction strategies. To evaluate the utility and quality of the resulting smartphone pressure observations, ensemble data assimilation experiments were performed for two case studies over the Pacific Northwest. In both case studies, smartphone pressures improved the analyses and forecasts of assimilated and nonassimilated variables. In case I, which considered the passage of a front across the region, cycled smartphone pressure assimilation consistently improved 1-h forecasts of the altimeter setting, 2-m temperature, and 2-m dewpoint. During a postfrontal period, cycled smartphone pressure assimilation improved mesoscale forecasts of hourly precipitation accumulation. In case II, which considered a major coastal windstorm, cycling experiments assimilating smartphone pressures improved 10-m wind forecasts as well as the predicted track and intensity. For both cases, free-forecast experiments initialized with smartphone data produced forecast improvements extending several hours, suggesting the utility of crowdsourced smartphone pressures for short-term numerical weather prediction.

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Changes in ozone and precursors during two aged wildfire smoke events in the Colorado Front Range in summer 2015

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-17-10691-2017 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 17 (17) ◽

pp. 10691-10707 ◽

Cited By ~ 14

Author(s):

Jakob Lindaas ◽

Delphine K. Farmer ◽

Ilana B. Pollack ◽

Andrew Abeleira ◽

Frank Flocke ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Pacific Northwest ◽

Rocky Mountain ◽

Colorado Front Range ◽

Atmospheric Composition ◽

Urban Site ◽

Front Range ◽

Wildfire Smoke ◽

Mixing Ratios ◽

The Pacific ◽

Urban Rural

Abstract. The relative importance of wildfire smoke for air quality over the western US is expected to increase as the climate warms and anthropogenic emissions decline. We report on in situ measurements of ozone (O3), a suite of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and reactive oxidized nitrogen species collected during summer 2015 at the Boulder Atmospheric Observatory (BAO) in Erie, CO. Aged wildfire smoke impacted BAO during two distinct time periods during summer 2015: 6–10 July and 16–30 August. The smoke was transported from the Pacific Northwest and Canada across much of the continental US. Carbon monoxide and particulate matter increased during the smoke-impacted periods, along with peroxyacyl nitrates and several VOCs that have atmospheric lifetimes longer than the transport timescale of the smoke. During the August smoke-impacted period, nitrogen dioxide was also elevated during the morning and evening compared to the smoke-free periods. There were nine empirically defined high-O3 days during our study period at BAO, and two of these days were smoke impacted. We examined the relationship between O3 and temperature at BAO and found that for a given temperature, O3 mixing ratios were greater (∼ 10 ppbv) during the smoke-impacted periods. Enhancements in O3 during the August smoke-impacted period were also observed at two long-term monitoring sites in Colorado: Rocky Mountain National Park and the Arapahoe National Wildlife Refuge near Walden, CO. Our data provide a new case study of how aged wildfire smoke can influence atmospheric composition at an urban site, and how smoke can contribute to increased O3 abundances across an urban–rural gradient.

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The long-term impact of restricting cycling and walking during high air pollution days on all-cause mortality: Health impact Assessment study

Environment International ◽

10.1016/j.envint.2020.105679 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 140 ◽

pp. 105679 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Giorgos Giallouros ◽

Panayiotis Kouis ◽

Stefania I. Papatheodorou ◽

James Woodcock ◽

Marko Tainio

Keyword(s):

Air Pollution ◽

Impact Assessment ◽

Health Impact Assessment ◽

Health Impact ◽

Impact Assessment Study ◽

Assessment Study ◽

All Cause Mortality ◽

Long Term Impact

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QT prolongation predicts short-term mortality independent of comorbidity

EP Europace ◽

10.1093/europace/euz058 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 21 (8) ◽

pp. 1254-1260 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Charlotte Gibbs ◽

Jacob Thalamus ◽

Doris Tove Kristoffersen ◽

Martin Veel Svendsen ◽

Øystein L Holla ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Main Diagnosis ◽

Short Term ◽

Significant Difference ◽

All Cause Mortality ◽

Short Term Mortality ◽

Comorbidity Index ◽

Short And Long Term ◽

Mortality Hazard Ratio ◽

Long Term Mortality

Abstract Aims A prolonged corrected QT interval (QTc) ≥500 ms is associated with high all-cause mortality in hospitalized patients. We aimed to explore any difference in short- and long-term mortality in patients with QTc ≥500 ms compared with patients with QTc <500 ms after adjustment for comorbidity and main diagnosis. Methods and results Patients with QTc ≥500 ms who were hospitalized at Telemark Hospital Trust, Norway between January 2007 and April 2014 were identified. Thirty-day and 3-year all-cause mortality in 980 patients with QTc ≥500 ms were compared with 980 patients with QTc <500 ms, matched for age and sex and adjusting for Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), previous admissions, and main diagnoses. QTc ≥500 ms was associated with increased 30-day all-cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 1.90, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.38–2.62; P < 0.001]. There was no significant difference in mortality between patients with QTc ≥500 ms and patients with QTc <500 ms who died between 30 days and 3 years; 32% vs. 29%, P = 0.20. Graded CCI was associated with increased 3-year all-cause mortality (CCI 1–2: HR 1.62, 95% CI 1.34–1.96; P < 0.001; CCI 3–4: HR 2.50, 95% CI 1.95–3.21; P < 0.001; CCI ≥5: HR 3.76, 95% CI 2.85–4.96; P < 0.001) but was not associated with 30-day all-cause mortality. Conclusion QTc ≥500 ms is a powerful predictor of short-term mortality overruling comorbidities. QTc ≥500 ms also predicted long-term mortality, but this effect was mainly caused by the increased short-term mortality. For long-term mortality, comorbidity was more important.

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Impacts of the July 2012 Siberian Fire Plume on Air Quality in the Pacific Northwest

10.5194/acp-2016-302 ◽

2016 ◽

Author(s):

Andrew Teakles ◽

Rita So ◽

Bruce Ainslie ◽

Robert Nissen ◽

Corinne Schiller ◽

...

Keyword(s):

British Columbia ◽

Air Quality ◽

Pacific Northwest ◽

Radiative Forcing ◽

Quality Standards ◽

Smoke Plume ◽

Air Quality Standards ◽

Wildfire Smoke ◽

The Pacific ◽

Modis Aod

Abstract. Biomass burning emissions emit a significant amount of trace gases and aerosols and can affect atmospheric chemistry and radiative forcing for hundreds or thousands of kilometers downwind. They can also contribute to exceedances of air quality standards and have negative impacts on human health. We present a case study of an intense wildfire plume from Siberia that affected the air quality across the Pacific Northwest on July 6–10, 2012. Using satellite measurements (MODIS True Colour RGB imagery and MODIS AOD), trajectories, and dispersion modelling, we track the wildfire smoke plume from its origin in Siberia to the Pacific Northwest where subsidence ahead of a subtropical Pacific High made the plume settle over the region. The normalized enhancement ratio of O3 and PM1 relative to CO of 0.26 and 0.09 are consistent with a plume aged 6–10 days. The aerosol mass in the plume was mainly submicron in diameter (PM1/PM2.5 = 0.97) and the part of the plume sampled at the peak of Whistler Mountain was 87 % organic material. Stable atmospheric conditions along the coast limited the initial entrainment of the plume and caused local anthropogenic emissions to buildup. A synthesis of air quality from the regional surface monitoring networks describes changes in ambient O3 and PM2.5 during the event and contrasts them to baseline air quality estimates from the AURAMS chemical transport model without wildfire emissions. Overall, the smoke plume contributed significantly to the exceedances in O3 and PMM2.5 air quality standards and objectives that occurred at several communities in the region during the event. Peak enhancements in 8-hr O3 of 34–44 ppbv and 24-hr PM2.5 of 14–32 μg/m3 were attributed to the effects of the smoke plume across the Interior of British Columbia and at the Whistler Peak high elevation site (2182 m ASL). Lesser enhancements of 10–12 ppbv for 8-hr O3 and of 4–9 μg/m3 for 24-hr PM2.5 occurred at Whistler Peak and across coastal British Columbia and Washington State. The findings suggest that the large air quality impacts seen during this event were a combination of the efficient transport of the plume across the Pacific, favorable entrainment conditions across the BC interior and the large scale of the Siberian wildfire emissions. A warming climate increases the risk of increased wildfire activity and events of this scale re-occurring under appropriate meteorological conditions.

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