scholarly journals A Data Driven Change-point Epidemic Model for Assessing the Impact of Large Gathering and Subsequent Movement Control Order on COVID-19 Spread in Malaysia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarat C. Dass ◽  
Wai M. Kwok ◽  
Gavin J. Gibson ◽  
Balvinder S. Gill ◽  
Bala M. Sundram ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Change Point ◽  
Movement Control ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Quantitative Understanding ◽  
Control Order ◽  
Short Time ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave

AbstractThe second wave of COVID-19 in Malaysia is largely attributed to a mass gathering held in Sri Petaling between February 27, 2020 and March 1, 2020, which contributed to an exponential rise of COVID-19 cases in the country. Starting March 18, 2020, the Malaysian government introduced four consecutive phases of a Movement Control Order (MCO) to stem the spread of COVID-19. The MCO was implemented through various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). The reported number of cases reached its peak by the first week of April and then started to reduce, hence proving the effectiveness of the MCO. To gain a quantitative understanding of the effect of MCO on the dynamics of COVID-19, this paper develops a class of mathematical models to capture the disease spread before and after MCO implementation in Malaysia. A heterogeneous variant of the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model is developed with additional compartments for asymptomatic transmission. Further, a change-point is incorporated to model the before and after disease dynamics, and is inferred based on data. Related statistical analyses for inference are developed in a Bayesian framework and are able to provide quantitative assessments of (1) the impact of the Sri Petaling gathering, and (2) the extent of decreasing transmission during the MCO period. The analysis here also quantitatively demonstrates how quickly transmission rates fall under effective NPI implemention within a short time period.

scholarly journals A data driven change-point epidemic model for assessing the impact of large gathering and subsequent movement control order on COVID-19 spread in Malaysia

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. e0252136
Author(s):  
Sarat C. Dass ◽  
Wai M. Kwok ◽  
Gavin J. Gibson ◽  
Balvinder S. Gill ◽  
Bala M. Sundram ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Change Point ◽  
Movement Control ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Quantitative Understanding ◽  
Control Order ◽  
Short Time ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave

The second wave of COVID-19 in Malaysia is largely attributed to a four-day mass gathering held in Sri Petaling from February 27, 2020, which contributed to an exponential rise of COVID-19 cases in the country. Starting from March 18, 2020, the Malaysian government introduced four consecutive phases of a Movement Control Order (MCO) to stem the spread of COVID-19. The MCO was implemented through various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). The reported number of cases reached its peak by the first week of April and then started to reduce, hence proving the effectiveness of the MCO. To gain a quantitative understanding of the effect of MCO on the dynamics of COVID-19, this paper develops a class of mathematical models to capture the disease spread before and after MCO implementation in Malaysia. A heterogeneous variant of the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model is developed with additional compartments for asymptomatic transmission. Further, a change-point is incorporated to model disease dynamics before and after intervention which is inferred based on data. Related statistical analyses for inference are developed in a Bayesian framework and are able to provide quantitative assessments of (1) the impact of the Sri Petaling gathering, and (2) the extent of decreasing transmission during the MCO period. The analysis here also quantitatively demonstrates how quickly transmission rates fall under effective NPI implementation within a short time period. The models and methodology used provided important insights into the nature of local transmissions to decision makers in the Ministry of Health, Malaysia.

scholarly journals The impact of fiscal councils on the budgetary consolidation

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ante Žigman ◽  
Martina Jergović
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
Easy Access ◽  
Finance Management ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Media ◽  
Short Time ◽  
The Impact

Fiscal councils are independent institutions that play an important role in execution of fiscal rules and budgetary discipline through their realistic and unbiased macroeconomic and budgetary analysis and projections. It is important that the fiscal councils have easy access to the media to ensure that their analyses reach the wider public, and influence creators of fiscal policy. This paper analyzes the influence of fiscal councils on budget balance and public debt in period before and after financial crisis. The member states that had functioning fiscal councils before the financial crisis, on average, manage their public finances better than those who founded them after the beginning of crisis. Additionally, supervision of the enforcements of fiscal rules from fiscal boards is already showing positive results in this short time period. Fiscal councils are extremely important to ensure a healthy basis for conducting fiscal policy and to decrease the influence of politics on public finance management.

scholarly journals Sheep scab spatial distribution: the roles of transmission pathways

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Emily Joanne Nixon ◽  
Ellen Brooks-Pollock ◽  
Richard Wall
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Movement Control ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Infected Sheep ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Psoroptes Ovis ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
Sheep Scab ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Ovine psoroptic mange (sheep scab) is a highly pathogenic contagious infection caused by the mite Psoroptes ovis. Following 21 years in which scab was eradicated in the UK, it was inadvertently reintroduced in 1972 and, despite the implementation of a range of control methods, its prevalence increased steadily thereafter. Recent reports of resistance to macrocyclic lactone treatments may further exacerbate control problems. A better understanding of the factors that facilitate its transmission are required to allow improved management of this disease. Transmission of infection occurs within and between contiguous sheep farms via infected sheep-to-sheep or sheep–environment contact and through long-distance movements of infected sheep, such as through markets. Methods A stochastic metapopulation model was used to investigate the impact of different transmission routes on the spatial pattern of outbreaks. A range of model scenarios were considered following the initial infection of a cluster of highly connected contiguous farms. Results Scab spreads between clusters of neighbouring contiguous farms after introduction but when long-distance movements are excluded, infection then self-limits spatially at boundaries where farm connectivity is low. Inclusion of long-distance movements is required to generate the national patterns of disease spread observed. Conclusions Preventing the movement of scab infested sheep through sales and markets is essential for any national management programme. If effective movement control can be implemented, regional control in geographic areas where farm densities are high would allow more focussed cost-effective scab management. Graphical Abstract

scholarly journals The Effect of Disclosure and Transparency Criteria In Saudi Banks on The Financial Ratios Indicators

2019 ◽  
Vol 25 (116) ◽  
pp. 290-303
Author(s):  
Mohammad Kamal Kamel Afaneh
Keyword(s):  
Performance Indicators ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Saudi Arabian ◽  
Financial Statements ◽  
Monetary Authority ◽  
Financial Indicators ◽  
Return On Assets ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Impact

The study aimed to measure the effect of applying the disclosure and transparency standards criteria adopted by the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority on improving performance indicators in the Saudi banking sector, by measuring the extent of the impact of the bank's financial indicators represented by liquidity, profitability and return on assets in Saudi banks by applying the criteria of disclosure and transparency, which is one of the Main principles in the list of governance, which was approved by the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority. The analytical approach was followed to achieve the goal of the study, as the financial statements of Saudi banks were analyzed during a period of 8-year to test four hypotheses related to measuring the presence of statistically significant differences between the performance indicators of banks before and after applying the disclosure and transparency standards imposed on Saudi banks. The results of the research confirmed the existence of an inverse relationship between the bank’s liquidity and the percentage of Saudi banks ’profits. The more liquidity, the lower the profitability level of banks, which indicates that the high liquidity in Saudi banks has led to a low profitability in this time period, and the study recommended that The need to pay attention to the concept of disclosure and transparency among all related parties in Saudi banks, and banks should find a balance between liquidity and profitability  

The Impact of Regulation on the U.S. Nonprofit Sector: Initial Evidence from the Nonprofit Integrity Act of 2004

2011 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 107-125 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel G. Neely
Keyword(s):  
Nonprofit Organizations ◽  
Financial Reporting ◽  
Nonprofit Sector ◽  
Reporting Quality ◽  
Charitable Organizations ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Financial Statement Audit ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Financial Scandals ◽  
The Impact

SYNOPSIS: The early 2000s revealed a series of high-profile financial frauds in the corporate and nonprofit sectors. In response to several of these financial scandals, California passed the Nonprofit Integrity Act (NIA) of 2004. This seminal piece of governance regulation sought to increase financial transparency and mitigate fundraising abuses by California charitable organizations. This study examines the characteristics of California charitable organizations before and after the Act to understand the initial impact the Act had on nonprofit organizations. Key findings from the study include limited reported improvement in financial reporting quality and an increase in accounting fees following the implementation of the Act. California nonprofits subject to the Act’s provisions did exhibit an increase in executive compensation following the implementation of the Act; however, the increase was less than that exhibited by the population of nonprofits during the same time period. Overall, the results of this study suggest that the initial impact of regulations similar to the NIA is greatest for organizations that did not previously have a financial statement audit.

scholarly journals The Impact of Stress Stability on Job Satisfaction and the Quality of Human Capital

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 333 ◽  
Author(s):  
Irina A. Rudaleva ◽  
Askar N. Mustafin
Keyword(s):  
Job Satisfaction ◽  
Psychological State ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Professional Stress ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Bank Employees ◽  
Short Time ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Main Factor

<p>Long professional stress has a significant impact on the psychological state of employees that inevitably affects the activities of any organization. Therefore, at present, more and more attention is being paid to minimize the negative consequences of stressful staff conditions, with the help of specific procedures of stress management. In this paper, we investigated the impact of stress, the types of stress-resistance of staff individual, and the influence of stress on the degree of job satisfaction of bank employees. The study concludes that the following factors affect the level of job satisfaction of bank employees: wage satisfaction, the level of stress at the workplace, and the relationships in the team. The main factor of the bank employees stress is a large amount of work and a short time period for doing the work. </p>

scholarly journals Digital Disinformation and the Need for Internet Co-regulation in Malaysia

2021 ◽  
Vol 29 (S2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahyuddin Daud ◽  
Ida Madieha Abd Ghani Azmi
Keyword(s):  
Criminal Liability ◽  
Self Regulation ◽  
Movement Control ◽  
Fake News ◽  
Awareness Campaigns ◽  
Internet Regulation ◽  
Regulation Scheme ◽  
Control Order ◽  
Private Actors ◽  
The Impact

The spread of fake news on Covid19 is causing public unrest and suspicion among citizens which is a challenge for countries facing the pandemic. The misinformation or disinformation which stems from uncertainties, unrest, and anxiety because of movement control order procedures, financial and economic hardship caused wrong information to spread like fire. Called as ‘info-demic’, it becomes a second source of virulent information that requires arresting just like the pandemic itself. Controlling fake news in the time of pandemic is a daunting problem that slaps Internet regulation at its face. On the Internet, lies spreads faster than truth and correcting misinformation means tonnes of work. This paper examines Internet self- and co-regulatory approaches in selected jurisdictions to reduce the impact of fake news on governments, industry, and private actors. In applying content analysis as a qualitative research method, the first section analysed specific legislations enacted by parliaments to criminalise the acts of disseminating and publishing fake news. The second section examines legislative and administrative efforts to impose civil and criminal liability on platform providers to monitor online content. The final section analysed self-regulatory efforts to introduce online fact-checking portals and awareness campaigns. This paper argues that Internet self-regulation scheme in Malaysia is not bringing the desired result in the scope of maintaining peace and security of the nation. Considering how dangerous disinformation can cause to the society, more so in global emergency like the present Covid19 pandemic, it is submitted that Internet co-regulation is more suitable if the social, moral and cultural fabric of the society is to be maintained.

scholarly journals Mathematical Modelling the Impact Evaluation of Lockdown on Infection Dynamics of COVID-19 in Italy.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniyar Yergesh ◽  
Shirali Kadyrov ◽  
Hayot Saydaliev ◽  
Alibek Orynbassar
Keyword(s):  
Policy Implementation ◽  
Impact Evaluation ◽  
Infection Dynamics ◽  
The Social ◽  
The World ◽  
Small Wave ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave

The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARSCoV-2), the cause of the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19), within months of emergence from Wuhan, China, has rapidly spread, exacting a devastating human toll across around the world reaching the pandemic stage at the the beginning of March 2020. Thus, COVID-19s daily increasing cases and deaths have led to worldwide lockdown, quarantine and some restrictions. Covid-19 epidemic in Italy started as a small wave of 2 infected cases on January 31. It was followed by a bigger wave mainly from local transmissions reported in 6387 cases on March 8. It caused the government to impose a lockdown on 8 March to the whole country as a way to suppress the pandemic. This study aims to evaluate the impact of the lockdown and awareness dynamics on infection in Italy over the period of January 31 to July 17 and how the impact varies across different lockdown scenarios in both periods before and after implementation of the lockdown policy. The findings SEIR reveal that implementation lockdown has minimised the social distancing flattening the curve. The infections associated with COVID-19 decreases with quarantine initially then easing lockdown will not cause further increasing transmission until a certain period which is explained by public high awareness. Completely removing lockdown may lead to sharp transmission second wave. Policy implementation and limitation of the study were evaluated at the end of the paper. Keywords COVID-19 - Lockdown - Epidemic model - SEIR - Awareness - Dynamical systems.

scholarly journals Changes in Urban Heat Island Effect with the Development of Newtowns

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyungil Lee ◽  
Yoonji Kim ◽  
Hyun Chan Sung ◽  
Seung Hee Kim ◽  
Seong Woo Jeon
Keyword(s):  
Urban Planning ◽  
Urban Heat Islands ◽  
Heat Island ◽  
Heat Islands ◽  
Island Effect ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Urban Heat ◽  
Planning Strategies ◽  
Short Time

Abstract Newtown is a planned city built over a short time period. It is suitable for climate and thermal research, particularly formulating urban planning strategies to analyse problems such as urban heat islands (UHIs). Herein, a comprehensive approach was demonstrated for determining changes in UHI distribution during 1989–2048 in two Newtowns with different urban planning. A significant increase in built-up areas was observed from 1989 (< 5%) to 2018 (> 40%) in both Newtowns. However, this increase significantly varied (approximately 12.25%) with urban planning in the areas where UHIs occurred before and after development. Moreover, without effective mitigation, the built-up area in each Newtown is estimated to increase to approximately 60%, and the surface UHI intensity in most areas to increase by 4 °C in 2048. Thus, these results combined with architectural assessment models can improve the understanding of thermal environmental impacts of urbanisation and help mitigate heat island hazards.

scholarly journals Analysis of the sources of COVID-19 transmission in France by Self-assessment Web-application before and after the Partial Autumnal Lockdown: Observational Study (Preprint)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabrice Denis ◽  
Anne-Lise Septans ◽  
Florian Le Goff ◽  
Stephan Jeanneau ◽  
François-Xavier Lescure
Keyword(s):  
Observational Study ◽  
Incubation Time ◽  
Web Application ◽  
Close Relative ◽  
Media Campaign ◽  
Self Assessment ◽  
National Media ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave

BACKGROUND We developed a questionnaire on a web-application for COVID-19 circumstances of contamination analysis in France during the 2nd wave of pandemic. OBJECTIVE To analyze the impact on contaminations characteristics of the second partial lockdown in France to adapt health public restrictions to further pandemic surges. METHODS Between 12/15/2020 and 12/24/2020, after a national media campaign, users of sourcecovid.fr web-application were asked questions about their own or a close relative COVID-19 contamination after 8/15/2020 in France. Data of contamination’s circumstances were assessed and compared before and after the second partial lockdown which occurred on 10/25/2020 during the second wave of pandemic and was ongoing on 12/24/2020. RESULTS As of December 24, 2020, 441 000 connections on web-application were observed. 2218 questionnaires were assessable for analysis. 61.8% were sure of their contamination origin and 38.2% thought they knew it. The median age of users was 43.0 years (IQR 32 to 56), 50.7% were male. The median incubation time of the assessed cohort was 4.0 days (IQR 3 to 5). Private area (family and friends) was the main source of contamination (50.2%) followed by work colleagues: 27.7%. The main time of contamination of the day was the evening (35.3%) before the lockdown and was reduced to 18.2% after it (P<0.001). The person who transmitted the virus to the user before and after the lockdown was significantly different (P<0.001): a friend (29.0% vs 14.1%), a family close relative (23.1% vs 32.7%), a work colleague (23.9% vs 34.2%). The main location where the virus was transmitted to the users before and after lockdown was significantly different too (P<0.001), respectively: Home (21.3% vs 25.5%), at work (22.4% vs 29.6%), collective places (33.0% vs 15.0%), and care centers (4.4% vs 9.7%). CONCLUSIONS Modalities of transmissions significantly changed before and after the 2nd lockdown in France. The main sources of contaminations remained the private area and work colleagues. Work became the main location of contamination after lockdown whereas collective places contaminations were strongly reduced. CLINICALTRIAL ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04670003

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