scholarly journals Analysis of the sources of COVID-19 transmission in France by Self-assessment Web-application before and after the Partial Autumnal Lockdown: Observational Study (Preprint)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabrice Denis ◽  
Anne-Lise Septans ◽  
Florian Le Goff ◽  
Stephan Jeanneau ◽  
François-Xavier Lescure
Keyword(s):  
Observational Study ◽  
Incubation Time ◽  
Web Application ◽  
Close Relative ◽  
Media Campaign ◽  
Self Assessment ◽  
National Media ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave

BACKGROUND We developed a questionnaire on a web-application for COVID-19 circumstances of contamination analysis in France during the 2nd wave of pandemic. OBJECTIVE To analyze the impact on contaminations characteristics of the second partial lockdown in France to adapt health public restrictions to further pandemic surges. METHODS Between 12/15/2020 and 12/24/2020, after a national media campaign, users of sourcecovid.fr web-application were asked questions about their own or a close relative COVID-19 contamination after 8/15/2020 in France. Data of contamination’s circumstances were assessed and compared before and after the second partial lockdown which occurred on 10/25/2020 during the second wave of pandemic and was ongoing on 12/24/2020. RESULTS As of December 24, 2020, 441 000 connections on web-application were observed. 2218 questionnaires were assessable for analysis. 61.8% were sure of their contamination origin and 38.2% thought they knew it. The median age of users was 43.0 years (IQR 32 to 56), 50.7% were male. The median incubation time of the assessed cohort was 4.0 days (IQR 3 to 5). Private area (family and friends) was the main source of contamination (50.2%) followed by work colleagues: 27.7%. The main time of contamination of the day was the evening (35.3%) before the lockdown and was reduced to 18.2% after it (P<0.001). The person who transmitted the virus to the user before and after the lockdown was significantly different (P<0.001): a friend (29.0% vs 14.1%), a family close relative (23.1% vs 32.7%), a work colleague (23.9% vs 34.2%). The main location where the virus was transmitted to the users before and after lockdown was significantly different too (P<0.001), respectively: Home (21.3% vs 25.5%), at work (22.4% vs 29.6%), collective places (33.0% vs 15.0%), and care centers (4.4% vs 9.7%). CONCLUSIONS Modalities of transmissions significantly changed before and after the 2nd lockdown in France. The main sources of contaminations remained the private area and work colleagues. Work became the main location of contamination after lockdown whereas collective places contaminations were strongly reduced. CLINICALTRIAL ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04670003

scholarly journals A Data Driven Change-point Epidemic Model for Assessing the Impact of Large Gathering and Subsequent Movement Control Order on COVID-19 Spread in Malaysia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarat C. Dass ◽  
Wai M. Kwok ◽  
Gavin J. Gibson ◽  
Balvinder S. Gill ◽  
Bala M. Sundram ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Change Point ◽  
Movement Control ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Quantitative Understanding ◽  
Control Order ◽  
Short Time ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave

AbstractThe second wave of COVID-19 in Malaysia is largely attributed to a mass gathering held in Sri Petaling between February 27, 2020 and March 1, 2020, which contributed to an exponential rise of COVID-19 cases in the country. Starting March 18, 2020, the Malaysian government introduced four consecutive phases of a Movement Control Order (MCO) to stem the spread of COVID-19. The MCO was implemented through various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). The reported number of cases reached its peak by the first week of April and then started to reduce, hence proving the effectiveness of the MCO. To gain a quantitative understanding of the effect of MCO on the dynamics of COVID-19, this paper develops a class of mathematical models to capture the disease spread before and after MCO implementation in Malaysia. A heterogeneous variant of the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model is developed with additional compartments for asymptomatic transmission. Further, a change-point is incorporated to model the before and after disease dynamics, and is inferred based on data. Related statistical analyses for inference are developed in a Bayesian framework and are able to provide quantitative assessments of (1) the impact of the Sri Petaling gathering, and (2) the extent of decreasing transmission during the MCO period. The analysis here also quantitatively demonstrates how quickly transmission rates fall under effective NPI implemention within a short time period.

scholarly journals Results Analysis of Russian Students’ Participation in the Online International Educational Project X-Culture

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 168 ◽  
Author(s):  
Irina Zakharova ◽  
Aleksandra Kobicheva ◽  
Natalia Rozova
Keyword(s):  
Focus Group ◽  
Student Satisfaction ◽  
English Language ◽  
International Project ◽  
Self Assessment ◽  
Intercultural Communications ◽  
Project Participant ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Quantitative And Qualitative Methods

The purpose of the paper is to assess the experience of Russian students in the online project class. The authors studied the impact of the international project “X-Culture” on the level of development of socio-cultural competencies of students and their knowledge of the English language. An additional aspect of the analysis was the question of the connection of students’ perception of the goal of participation in the international project “X-Culture” with their self-motivation and self-assessment of the success of the results achieved. The study used both quantitative and qualitative methods—student testing, database analysis provided by the project “X-culture”, and focus group records. The result of the participation has been inconsistent. As expected, such sociocultural competence as the level of proficiency in English increased among the majority of students, as confirmed by the values of the student’s criterion for the results of language testing, conducted before and after the project. At the same time, average indicators of sociocultural competences such as “interpersonal skills”, “creativity”, “leadership”, and “friendliness” have deteriorated during the project that is confirmed by the trends lines of time series. The focus group revealed differences in terms of participation in the X-Culture project, their connection with self-motivation, and student satisfaction with the results achieved. Students who have achieved high levels of sociocultural competences have set themselves the goals of participation in the project related to the improvement of professional competencies and intercultural communications. At the same time, students were most satisfied with their activities in the project and the results achieved, aimed at obtaining new professional knowledge and skills, and students whose goal was simply to obtain an international certificate of the project participant.

scholarly journals The implications of religious event and holidays on the transmission of SARS-CoV2 : the impact of behavioral changes on transmission

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdulkarim Abdulrahman ◽  
Muath AlMajthoob ◽  
Abdulla I AlAwadhi ◽  
Manaf M AlQahtani
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
Observational Study ◽  
Direct Effect ◽  
Behavioral Changes ◽  
Newly Diagnosed ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Public Health Plan ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIntroductionThe risk factors for transmission of SARS-CoV2 have been widely studied and it was evident that a population’s behavior has a direct effect on the risk of transmission. Public health measures and regulation are largely kept to control and direct these behaviors. In this study, we describe the change in transmission in SARS-CoV2 in relation to demographics before and after two major religious events: “Eid Alfitr” and “Ashura”MethodsThis is a national observational study conducted in Bahrain in September 2020 to compare the number and demographics of all newly diagnosed cases before and after Eid Alfitr (religious holiday) and Ashura religious event. A 10 day period before the event was compared to a 10 day period after the event by ten days. Data on the number of tests, number of new cases, their demographics (age, gender, nationality) and presence of symptoms were collected and analyzed.ResultsThere was significant increase in the number of COVID-19 cases after both Eid Alfitr (1997 more cases, with a 67% increase) and Ashura (4232 more cases with 2.19 times more cases). The majority of new cases after the religious events were found in local Bahrainis, from 472 cases to 2169 cases after Eid, and from 2201 to 6639 cases after Ashura. The rise was most notable in females (increased by 4.89 times after Eid and by 2.69 times after Ashura), children (increased by 4.69 times after Eid and by 5 times after Ashura) and elderly above the age of 60 years (increased by 5.7 times after Eid and by 3.23 times after Ashura).ConclusionIt is evident that religious events and holidays have important implications on the transmission of SARS-CoV2. This increased in transmission is related mainly to the behavior of the population in those days. Children, female, and elderly were the most affected categories due to these events. A thorough public health plan to limit the spread of the infection at these events should be planned and implemented ahead of time.

scholarly journals Mathematical Modelling the Impact Evaluation of Lockdown on Infection Dynamics of COVID-19 in Italy.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniyar Yergesh ◽  
Shirali Kadyrov ◽  
Hayot Saydaliev ◽  
Alibek Orynbassar
Keyword(s):  
Policy Implementation ◽  
Impact Evaluation ◽  
Infection Dynamics ◽  
The Social ◽  
The World ◽  
Small Wave ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave

The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARSCoV-2), the cause of the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19), within months of emergence from Wuhan, China, has rapidly spread, exacting a devastating human toll across around the world reaching the pandemic stage at the the beginning of March 2020. Thus, COVID-19s daily increasing cases and deaths have led to worldwide lockdown, quarantine and some restrictions. Covid-19 epidemic in Italy started as a small wave of 2 infected cases on January 31. It was followed by a bigger wave mainly from local transmissions reported in 6387 cases on March 8. It caused the government to impose a lockdown on 8 March to the whole country as a way to suppress the pandemic. This study aims to evaluate the impact of the lockdown and awareness dynamics on infection in Italy over the period of January 31 to July 17 and how the impact varies across different lockdown scenarios in both periods before and after implementation of the lockdown policy. The findings SEIR reveal that implementation lockdown has minimised the social distancing flattening the curve. The infections associated with COVID-19 decreases with quarantine initially then easing lockdown will not cause further increasing transmission until a certain period which is explained by public high awareness. Completely removing lockdown may lead to sharp transmission second wave. Policy implementation and limitation of the study were evaluated at the end of the paper. Keywords COVID-19 - Lockdown - Epidemic model - SEIR - Awareness - Dynamical systems.

scholarly journals Addiction peer recovery coach training pilot: assessment of confidence levels

PeerJ ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. e10783
Author(s):  
Nicholas Guenzel ◽  
Hongying Dai
Keyword(s):  
American Indians ◽  
Addiction Treatment ◽  
Initial Attempt ◽  
Self Assessment ◽  
Systematic Analysis ◽  
Confidence Levels ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Average Confidence ◽  
Self Assessments ◽  
The Impact

Background Peer recovery coaches (PRCs) have become a critical tool in addiction treatment in many areas of the world. Despite this fact, no identified research has examined the process or impact of PRC training. Furthermore, no scales were identified to measure trainee confidence in various PRC techniques. The goal of this article is to analyze the process and immediate impact of PRC training of twelve American Indians (AIs) in a culturally-specific program. We focus most specifically on trainee confidence levels. Methods No written consent was obtained and completion of the assessment was considered consent. Trainees completed self-assessments before and after the training. The self-assessment examined nine areas ranging from understanding the role of PRCs to knowledge of effective PRC techniques. Paired t-tests were used to assess for changes in individual trainee responses between the pre- and post-assessments. Results Pre-training responses ranged from moderate to high. Questions with the lowest average confidence levels address PRC activities or specific techniques to facilitate recovery. All nine questions showed statistically significant mean improvements in the post-training self-assessments. Questions regarding specific PRC activities and techniques showed the greatest improvement. Questions relating to helping people more generally showed the smallest improvement. Average post-training responses fell within a very narrow range indicating relatively consistent confidence levels across skills. Analysis indicates participants were possibly over-confident in certain areas (i.e., maintaining boundaries). This small pilot represents an initial attempt to measure confidence levels of PRC trainees. The findings may inform future training by identifying certain areas where emphasis might be most helpful for trainees. In addition, it is hoped that this work will encourage more systematic analysis of the impact of PRC training on individuals.

scholarly journals COVID-19 epidemic trends from a Self-Assessment Web Application in France: Observational Study (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabrice Denis ◽  
Arnaud Fontanet ◽  
Yann-Mael Le Douarin ◽  
Florian Le Goff ◽  
Stephan Jeanneau ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Web Application ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Young Population ◽  
Rt Pcr ◽  
Self Assessment ◽  
Emergency Visits ◽  
Spatially Correlated ◽  
Participatory Surveillance ◽  
Second Wave

BACKGROUND We developed a self-assessment and participatory surveillance web-application for coronavirus disease (COVID-19), which was launched in France in March 2020. OBJECTIVE We compared daily large-scale RT-PCR tests results to daily connections to a self-triage application by anosmic users to assess dynamics of emergency visits, hospitalizations and ICU admissions for COVID-19 positive patients in France. METHODS Between 3/21/2020 and 11/18//2020, users of maladiecoronavirus.fr self-triage application were asked questions about COVID-19 symptoms. Data of daily hospitalizations, large-scale RT-PCR positive tests, emergency visits and ICU entrances for COVID-19 patients were compared to data of anosmic users of the applications. RESULTS As of November 18, 2020, 575,214 users reported recent anosmia on near 13 Million responders. Daily anosmia reported during the peak of connections to the application on September 16 were spatially correlated with daily COVID-19–related hospitalizations peak which occurred in November (spearman correlation coefficients=0.77, p<.001). Decrease of the connections of anosmic users after the main peaks of connections preceded the decrease of daily hospitalizations by 10 and 9 days during the first and the second outbreak waves respectively although the decrease of RT-PCR positive tests occurred only 2 days before daily hospitalizations during the second wave. CONCLUSIONS A peak of daily reported anosmia in young adults was observed 49 days before the peak of the hospitalizations corresponding to the first phase of a large-scale contamination of young population followed by older people leading to hospitalization’s peak in November. Data of anosmic users of a national widespread self-assessment application can be a relevant tool to anticipate outbreak surge, and hospitalizations and ICU decrease of COVID-19 patients. CLINICALTRIAL ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04331171

scholarly journals The Impact of the Second Wave of COVID-19 on Outcomes in Hip Fracture Patients: An Observational Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (24) ◽  
pp. 11589
Author(s):  
Mattia Morri ◽  
Cristiana Forni ◽  
Andrea Evangelista ◽  
Tania Broggian ◽  
Elisa Ambrosi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Observational Study ◽  
Recovery Time ◽  
Pressure Ulcers ◽  
Healthcare Outcomes ◽  
Average Complexity ◽  
Femur Fractures ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
The Impact ◽  
First Time ◽  
Second Wave

The aim of this work was to measure the healthcare outcomes for patients undergoing surgery for femur fractures during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic within a context of orthopaedic surgery units and living with the pandemic and compare them with pre-pandemic outcomes. A retrospective observational study was conducted. The incidence of pressure ulcers and deambulation recovery time were the main outcome. The pre-pandemic group consisted of 108 patients and the second wave pandemic group included 194 patients. The incidence of pressure ulcers increased from 10% in the pre-pandemic period to 21% in the second wave (p = 0.016) and the crude relative risk (RR) was 2.06 (p = 0.023). The recovery of deambulation showed no significant difference in the recovery time in terms of days needed to walk the first time (3 days vs. 2 days; p = 0.44). During the second wave of COVID-19, the risk of pressure ulcers for patients undergoing femur fracture surgery increased significantly. This variation could be explained by the absence of a caregiver for these patients and the increased average complexity of the patients managed in the orthopaedic setting. The hospital management should take into account these aspects when restoring the hospital’s normal surgical activities.

scholarly journals The Impact of Control and Mitigation Strategies during the Second Wave of COVID-19 Infections in Spain and Italy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco De Nadai ◽  
Kristof Roomp ◽  
Bruno Lepri ◽  
Nuria Oliver
Keyword(s):  
Perceived Risk ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Protection Measures ◽  
Public Health Communication ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave

European countries struggled to fight against the second and the third waves of the COVID-19 pandemic, as the Test-Trace-Isolate (TTI) strategy widely adopted over the summer and early fall failed to effectively contain the spread of the disease. In this paper, we shed light on the effectiveness of such a strategy in two European countries (Spain and Italy) by analysing data from June to December 2020, collected via a large-scale online citizen survey with 95,251 answers in Spain and 43,393 answers in Italy. Through our analysis, we identify several weaknesses in each of the three pillars of the TTI strategy: testing, tracing and isolating. Moreover, we analyse the respondents' self-reported behaviour before and after the mitigation strategies were deployed during the second wave of infections. We find that the changes in the participants' behaviour were more pronounced in Italy than in Spain, whereas in both countries, respondents reported being very compliant with individual protection measures, such as wearing facial masks or frequently disinfecting their hands. Finally, we analyse the participants' perceptions about their government's measures and the safety of everyday activities and places regarding the risk of getting an infection. We find that the perceived risk is often gender- and age-dependent and not aligned with the risk level identified by the literature. This finding emphasises the importance of deploying public-health communication campaigns to debunk misconceptions about SARS-CoV-2. Overall, our work shows the value of online citizen surveys to quickly and cheaply collect large-scale data to support and evaluate policy decisions to contrast the spread of the disease.

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