scholarly journals Reproduction as a Means of Evaluating Policy Models: A Case Study of a COVID-19 Simulation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Chattoe-Brown ◽  
N. Gilbert ◽  
D. A. Robertson ◽  
C. Watts
Keyword(s):  
Compartmental Model ◽  
London School ◽  
Sufficient Information ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Reproduction Strategy ◽  
Policy Models ◽  
New Strategy ◽  
Independent Model ◽  
Modelling Approach

AbstractThis article proposes (and demonstrates the effectiveness of) a new strategy for assessing the results of epidemic models which we designate reproduction. The strategy is to build an independent model that uses (as far as possible) only the published information about the model to be assessed. In the example presented here, the independent model also follows a different modelling approach (agent-based modelling) to the model being assessed (the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine compartmental model which has been influential in COVID lockdown policy). The argument runs that if the policy prescriptions of the two models match then this independently supports them (and reduces the chance that they are artefacts of assumptions, modelling approach or programming bugs). If, on the other hand, they do not match then either the model being assessed is not provided with sufficient information to be relied on or (perhaps) there is something wrong with it. In addition to justifying the approach, describing the two models and demonstrating the success of the approach, the article also discusses additional benefits of the reproduction strategy independent of whether match between policy prescriptions is actually achieved.

scholarly journals A Metapopulation Network Model for the Spreading of SARS-CoV-2: Case Study for Ireland

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rory Humphries ◽  
Mary Spillane ◽  
Kieran Mulchrone ◽  
Sebastian Wieczorek ◽  
Micheal O’Riordan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Proof Of Concept ◽  
Network Modelling ◽  
Modelling Framework ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Administrative Units ◽  
Modelling Approach

AbstractWe present preliminary results on an all-Ireland network modelling approach to simulate the spreading the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome CoronaVirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), commonly known as the coronavirus. In the model, nodes correspond to locations or communities that are connected by links indicating travel and commuting between different locations. While this proposed modelling framework can be applied on all levels of spatial granularity and different countries, we consider Ireland as a case study. The network comprises 3440 electoral divisions (EDs) of the Republic of Ireland and 890 superoutput areas (SOAs) for Northern Ireland, which corresponds to local administrative units below the NUTS 3 regions. The local dynamics within each node follows a phenomenological SIRX compartmental model including classes of Susceptibles, Infected, Recovered and Quarantined (X) inspired from Science 368, 742 (2020). For better comparison to empirical data, we extended that model by a class of Deaths. We consider various scenarios including the 5-phase roadmap for Ireland. In addition, as proof of concept, we investigate the effect of dynamic interventions that aim to keep the number of infected below a given threshold by dynamically adjusting containment measures on a national (Ireland), which could also be implemented at a regional (county) or local (ED/SOA) level.

Investigation of a New Approach to Predict Water Quality Extremes with a Case Study of Chemical Determinands in Stream Water

1991 ◽  
Vol 24 (6) ◽  
pp. 25-33
Author(s):  
A. J. Jakeman ◽  
P. G. Whitehead ◽  
A. Robson ◽  
J. A. Taylor ◽  
J. Bai
Keyword(s):  
Water Quality ◽  
Stream Water ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Hybrid Modelling ◽  
Trend Model ◽  
Environmental Extremes ◽  
Modelling Approach

The paper illustrates analysis of the assumptions of the statistical component of a hybrid modelling approach for predicting environmental extremes. This shows how to assess the applicability of the approach to water quality problems. The analysis involves data on stream acidity from the Birkenes catchment in Norway. The modelling approach is hybrid in that it uses: (1) a deterministic or process-based description to simulate (non-stationary) long term trend values of environmental variables, and (2) probability distributions which are superimposed on the trend values to characterise the frequency of shorter term concentrations. This permits assessment of management strategies and of sensitivity to climate variables by adjusting the values of major forcing variables in the trend model. Knowledge of the variability about the trend is provided by: (a) identification of an appropriate parametric form of the probability density function (pdf) of the environmental attribute (e.g. stream acidity variables) whose extremes are of interest, and (b) estimation of pdf parameters using the output of the trend model.

scholarly journals Multi-Criteria, Co-Evolutionary Charging Behavior: An Agent-Based Simulation of Urban Electromobility

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 18
Author(s):  
Lennart Adenaw ◽  
Markus Lienkamp
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
City Planning ◽  
User Behavior ◽  
Transport Sector ◽  
Simulation Framework ◽  
Agent Based Simulation ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Charging Station ◽  
Spatio Temporal

In order to electrify the transport sector, scores of charging stations are needed to incentivize people to buy electric vehicles. In urban areas with a high charging demand and little space, decision-makers are in need of planning tools that enable them to efficiently allocate financial and organizational resources to the promotion of electromobility. As with many other city planning tasks, simulations foster successful decision-making. This article presents a novel agent-based simulation framework for urban electromobility aimed at the analysis of charging station utilization and user behavior. The approach presented here employs a novel co-evolutionary learning model for adaptive charging behavior. The simulation framework is tested and verified by means of a case study conducted in the city of Munich. The case study shows that the presented approach realistically reproduces charging behavior and spatio-temporal charger utilization.

scholarly journals Discursive Strategies and Sequenced Institutional Change: The Case of Marriage Equality in the United States

2021 ◽  
pp. 003232172110205
Author(s):  
Giulia Mariani ◽  
Tània Verge
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Institutional Change ◽  
The United States ◽  
Marriage Equality ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Discursive Strategies ◽  
Policy Debates ◽  
The Status ◽  
Private Actors

Building on historical and discursive institutionalism, this article examines the agent-based dynamics of gradual institutional change. Specifically, using marriage equality in the United States as a case study, we examine how actors’ ideational work enabled them to make use of the political and discursive opportunities afforded by multiple venues to legitimize the process of institutional change to take off sequentially through layering, displacement, and conversion. We also pay special attention to how the discursive strategies deployed by LGBT advocates, religious-conservative organizations and other private actors created new opportunities to influence policy debates and tip the scales to their preferred policy outcome. The sequential perspective adopted in this study allows problematizing traditional conceptualizations of which actors support or contest the status quo, as enduring oppositional dynamics lead them to perform both roles in subsequent phases of the institutional change process.

Narrative Scientific Data Visualization in an Immersive Environment

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richen Liu ◽  
Hailong Wang ◽  
Chuyu Zhang ◽  
Xiaojian Chen ◽  
Lijun Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Visualization ◽  
Domain Knowledge ◽  
User Study ◽  
Scientific Visualization ◽  
Scientific Data ◽  
Immersive Environments ◽  
Related Information ◽  
New Strategy ◽  
Scientific Data Visualization

Abstract Motivation Narrative visualization for scientific data explorations can help users better understand the domain knowledge, because narrative visualizations often present a sequence of facts and observations linked together by a unifying theme or argument. Narrative visualization in immersive environments can provide users with an intuitive experience to interactively explore the scientific data, because immersive environments provide a brand new strategy for interactive scientific data visualization and exploration. However, it is challenging to develop narrative scientific visualization in immersive environments. In this paper, we propose an immersive narrative visualization tool to create and customize scientific data explorations for ordinary users with little knowledge about programming on scientific visualization, They are allowed to define POIs (point of interests) conveniently by the handler of an immersive device. Results Automatic exploration animations with narrative annotations can be generated by the gradual transitions between consecutive POI pairs. Besides, interactive slicing can be also controlled by device handler. Evaluations including user study and case study are designed and conducted to show the usability and effectiveness of the proposed tool. Availability Related information can be accessed at: https://dabigtou.github.io/richenliu/

scholarly journals Visualising Ostia’s Processional Landscape Through a Multi-Layered Computational Approach: Case Study of the Cult of the Magna Mater

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 444-467
Author(s):  
Katherine A. Crawford
Keyword(s):  
Network Analysis ◽  
Computational Approach ◽  
Urban Network ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Agent Based Modelling ◽  
Existing Problems ◽  
Layered Approach ◽  
Religious Landscape ◽  
Insight Into

AbstractOstia, the ancient port of Rome, had a rich religious landscape. How processional rituals further contributed to this landscape, however, has seen little consideration. This is largely due to a lack of evidence that attests to the routes taken by processional rituals. The present study aims to address existing problems in studying processions by questioning what factors motivated processional movement routes. A novel computational approach that integrates GIS, urban network analysis, and agent-based modelling is introduced. This multi-layered approach is used to question how spectators served as attractors in the creation of a processional landscape using Ostia’s Campo della Magna Mater as a case study. The analysis of these results is subsequently used to gain new insight into how a greater processional landscape was created surrounding the sanctuary of the Magna Mater.

A Comparison between Agent-Based and GIS-Based Tsunami Evacuation Simulations: A Case Study for Tofino, BC

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph Kim ◽  
Tomoyuki Takabatake ◽  
Ioan NISTOR ◽  
Tomoya Shibayama
Keyword(s):  
Information Systems ◽  
Geographical Information Systems ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Geographical Information ◽  
Evacuation Planning ◽  
Loss Of Life ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Agent Based Modelling ◽  
Validation Tool

Soft measures such as evacuation planning are recommended to mitigate the loss of life during tsunamis. Two types of evacuation models are widely used: (1) Agent-based modelling (ABM) defines sets of rules that individual agents in a simulation follow during a simulated evacuation. (2) Geographical information systems (GIS) are more accessible to city planners, but cannot incorporate the dynamic behaviours found in ABMs. The two evacuation modelling methodologies were compared through a case study by assessing the state of evacuation preparedness and investigating potential mitigation options. The two models showed different magnitudes for mortality rates and facility demand but had similar trends. Both models agreed on the best solution to reduce the loss of life for the community. GIS may serve as a useful tool for initial investigation or as a validation tool for ABMs. ABMs are recommended for use when modelling evacuation until GIS methodologies are further developed.

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