scholarly journals The allometric propagation of COVID-19 is explained by human travel

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rohisha Tuladhar ◽  
Paolo Grigolini ◽  
Fidel Santamaria
Keyword(s):  
Power Law ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
The United States ◽  
Scale Free ◽  
The Us ◽  
Power Law Function ◽  
Models Of Disease ◽  
Modeling Strategy ◽  
Phenomenological Property

We analyzed the number of cumulative positive cases of COVID-19 as a function of time in countries around the World. We tracked the increase in cases from the onset of the pandemic in each region for up to 150 days. We found that in 81 out of 146 regions the trajectory was described with a power-law function for up to 30 days. We also detected scale-free properties in the majority of sub-regions in Australia, Canada, China, and the United States (US). We developed an allometric model that was capable of fitting the initial phase of the pandemic and was the best predictor for the propagation of the illness for up to 100 days. We then determined that the power-law COVID-19 exponent correlated with measurements of human mobility. The COVID-19 exponent correlated with the magnitude of air passengers per country. This correlation persisted when we analyzed the number of air passengers per US states, an even per US metropolitan areas. Furthermore, the COVID-19 exponent correlated with the number of vehicle miles travelled in the US. Together, air and vehicular travel explained 70 % of the variability of the COVID-19 exponent. Taken together, our results suggest that the scale-free propagation of the virus is present at multiple geographical scales and is correlated with human mobility. We conclude that models of disease transmission should integrate scale-free dynamics as part of the modeling strategy and not only as an emergent phenomenological property.

scholarly journals Differential effects of intervention timing on COVID-19 spread in the United States

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (49) ◽  
pp. eabd6370 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sen Pei ◽  
Sasikiran Kandula ◽  
Jeffrey Shaman
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
The United States ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions

Assessing the effects of early nonpharmaceutical interventions on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread is crucial for understanding and planning future control measures to combat the pandemic. We use observations of reported infections and deaths, human mobility data, and a metapopulation transmission model to quantify changes in disease transmission rates in U.S. counties from 15 March to 3 May 2020. We find that marked, asynchronous reductions of the basic reproductive number occurred throughout the United States in association with social distancing and other control measures. Counterfactual simulations indicate that, had these same measures been implemented 1 to 2 weeks earlier, substantial cases and deaths could have been averted and that delayed responses to future increased incidence will facilitate a stronger rebound of infections and death. Our findings underscore the importance of early intervention and aggressive control in combatting the COVID-19 pandemic.

scholarly journals Co-circulating mumps lineages at multiple geographic scales

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shirlee Wohl ◽  
Hayden C. Metsky ◽  
Stephen F. Schaffner ◽  
Anne Piantadosi ◽  
Meagan Burns ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Local Community ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Viral Disease ◽  
The United States ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Multiple Introductions ◽  
Global Context ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short Time

AbstractDespite widespread vaccination, eleven thousand mumps cases were reported in the United States (US) in 2016–17, including hundreds in Massachusetts, primarily in college settings. We generated 203 whole genome mumps virus (MuV) sequences from Massachusetts and 15 other states to understand the dynamics of mumps spread locally and nationally, as well as to search for variants potentially related to vaccination. We observed multiple MuV lineages circulating within Massachusetts during 2016–17, evidence for multiple introductions of the virus to the state, and extensive geographic movement of MuV within the US on short time scales. We found no evidence that variants arising during this outbreak contributed to vaccine escape. Combining epidemiological and genomic data, we observed multiple co-circulating clades within individual universities as well as spillover into the local community. Detailed data from one well-sampled university allowed us to estimate an effective reproductive number within that university significantly greater than one. We also used publicly available small hydrophobic (SH) gene sequences to estimate migration between world regions and to place this outbreak in a global context, but demonstrate that these short sequences, historically used for MuV genotyping, are inadequate for tracing detailed transmission. Our findings suggest continuous, often undetected, circulation of mumps both locally and nationally, and highlight the value of combining genomic and epidemiological data to track viral disease transmission at high resolution.

scholarly journals Differential Effects of Intervention Timing on COVID-19 Spread in the United States

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sen Pei ◽  
Sasikiran Kandula ◽  
Jeffrey Shaman
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Metropolitan Areas ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
The United States ◽  
Aggressive Response ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
County Level ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Us Counties

Assessing the effects of early non-pharmaceutical interventions1-5 on COVID-19 spread in the United States is crucial for understanding and planning future control measures to combat the ongoing pandemic6-10. Here we use county-level observations of reported infections and deaths11, in conjunction with human mobility data12 and a metapopulation transmission model13,14, to quantify changes of disease transmission rates in US counties from March 15, 2020 to May 3, 2020. We find significant reductions of the basic reproductive numbers in major metropolitan areas in association with social distancing and other control measures. Counterfactual simulations indicate that, had these same control measures been implemented just 1-2 weeks earlier, a substantial number of cases and deaths could have been averted. Specifically, nationwide, 61.6% [95% CI: 54.6%-67.7%] of reported infections and 55.0% [95% CI: 46.1%-62.2%] of reported deaths as of May 3, 2020 could have been avoided if the same control measures had been implemented just one week earlier. We also examine the effects of delays in re-implementing social distancing following a relaxation of control measures. A longer response time results in a stronger rebound of infections and death. Our findings underscore the importance of early intervention and aggressive response in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic.

scholarly journals Interplay of global multi-scale human mobility, social distancing, government interventions, and COVID-19 dynamics

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aniruddha Adiga ◽  
Lijing Wang ◽  
Adam Sadilek ◽  
Ashish Tendulkar ◽  
Srinivasan Venkatramanan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Human Mobility ◽  
The United States ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Population Mixing ◽  
Government Interventions ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Epidemic Dynamics ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThis work quantifies the impact of interventions to curtail mobility and social interactions in order to control the COVID-19 pandemic. We analyze the change in world-wide mobility at multiple spatio-temporal resolutions – county, state, country – using an anonymized aggregate mobility map that captures population flows between geographic cells of size 5 km2. We show that human mobility underwent an abrupt and significant change, partly in response to the interventions, resulting in 87% reduction of international travel and up to 75% reduction of domestic travel. Taking two very different countries sampled from the global spectrum, we observe a maximum reduction of 42% in mobility across different states of the United States (US), and a 68% reduction across the states of India between late March and late April. Since then, there has been an uptick in flows, with the US seeing 53% increase and India up to 38% increase with respect to flows seen during the lockdown. As we overlay this global map with epidemic incidence curves and dates of government interventions, we observe that as case counts rose, mobility fell – often before stay-at-home orders were issued. Further, in order to understand mixing within a region, we propose a new metric to quantify the effect of social distancing on the basis of mobility. We find that population mixing has decreased considerably as the pandemic has progressed and are able to measure this effect across the world. Finally, we carry out a counterfactual analysis of delaying the lockdown and show that a one week delay would have doubled the reported number of cases in the US and India. To our knowledge, this work is the first to model in near real-time, the interplay of human mobility, epidemic dynamics and public policies across multiple spatial resolutions and at a global scale.

scholarly journals On Teaching Im/Migration in an Undergraduate Classroom

2021 ◽  
Vol 120 ◽  
pp. 61-68
Author(s):  
Amrita Dhar
Keyword(s):  
English Language ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Human Movement ◽  
The United States ◽  
First Century ◽  
Migrant Status ◽  
Human Movements ◽  
The Us ◽  
Pedagogical Aspect ◽  
Literature Class

This article examines the urgencies, challenges, and rewards of teaching about migration, emigration, and immigration in our time of massive human movement across the globe. I describe and analyse the beginnings, structure, and takeaways from my undergraduate course on the literature of human movements (whether for reasons of refuge, asylum, choice, adventure, exploration, survival). I argue that despite growing collective acknowledgment of increasing human mobility across our planet, it is the power and wisdom of stories through which we best engage with the specific and multifaceted realities of persons losing home, making home, making other, and making own. I also suggest, from my classroom experience, that a slow, reflective, and immersed sharing of stories of those who have been displaced, misplaced, replaced, and strangely-placed is a key pedagogical aspect of discussing im/migration in the twenty-first century, and that especially in the United States, we owe it to ourselves and our students to know and interrogate the longer vocabularies and histories of othering and belonging in the English language. Through my discussion of the class activities and conversations, I show, similarly, the ways in which a literature class on the topic of im/migration functions also as a generative venue for intersectional considerations of race, gender, ethnicity, class, caste, disability, sexuality, nationality, and un/documented status. I also include reflections about future iterations of this course as I draw on summative comments from my students. Finally: although my pedagogy is informed by my own migrant status in the US, I offer means for pedagogues from a range of backgrounds and instructional levels to engage with and further this conversation in different parts of the world.

Registration of wildlife contraceptives in the United States of America, with OvoControl and GonaCon immunocontraceptive vaccines as examples

2008 ◽  
Vol 35 (6) ◽  
pp. 586 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kathleen A. Fagerstone ◽  
Lowell A. Miller ◽  
John D. Eisemann ◽  
Jeanette R. O'Hare ◽  
James P. Gionfriddo
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United States Of America ◽  
Environmental Protection Agency ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Regulatory Authority ◽  
The United States ◽  
Research Center ◽  
Management Options ◽  
Contraceptive Agents ◽  
The Us

Overabundant wildlife populations have the potential to adversely affect wildlife habitats or pose risks to human health and safety through disease transmission and collisions with vehicles and aircraft. Traditional methods for reducing overabundant wildlife, such as hunting and trapping, are often restricted or infeasible in urban and suburban areas. Additional management options are needed. For the past 15 years, scientists with the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Wildlife Services’ National Wildlife Research Center have been developing and testing contraceptive agents. This research has resulted in the development of several reproductive inhibitors and has forced regulatory bodies to determine where the regulatory authority for wildlife contraceptives will reside. The regulatory authority for contraceptives for wildlife and feral animals has recently been moved from the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The first contraceptive registered by the EPA since this move was OvoControl-G for reducing the hatchability of Canada goose eggs. OvoControl was registered in 2005 by Innolytics, LLC working in cooperation with the National Wildlife Research Center. A similar product, OvoControl-P, was registered in 2007 as a contraceptive technique for pigeons. Another product developed by the National Wildlife Research Center, GonaCon immunocontraceptive vaccine, is in the registration process for managing white-tailed deer populations. This manuscript will describe the products that have been and are currently undergoing registration as contraceptives in the United States of America, and the data required for those products.

scholarly journals Cell phone mobility data and manifold learning: Insights into population behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roman Levin ◽  
Dennis L. Chao ◽  
Edward A. Wenger ◽  
Joshua L. Proctor
Keyword(s):  
Manifold Learning ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Cell Phone ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
The United States ◽  
Geographic Scale ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
And Behavior ◽  
At Home

AbstractAs COVID-19 cases resurge in the United States, understanding the complex interplay between human behavior, disease transmission, and non-pharmaceutical interventions during the pandemic could provide valuable insights to focus future public health efforts. Cell-phone mobility data offers a modern measurement instrument to investigate human mobility and behavior at an unprecedented scale. We investigate mobility data collected, aggregated, and anonymized by SafeGraph Inc. which measures how populations at the census-block-group geographic scale stayed at home in California, Georgia, Texas, and Washington since the beginning of the pandemic. Using manifold learning techniques, we find patterns of mobility behavior that align with stay-at-home orders, correlate with socioeconomic factors, cluster geographically, and reveal sub-populations that likely migrated out of urban areas. The analysis and approach provides policy makers a framework for interpreting mobility data and behavior to inform actions aimed at curbing the spread of COVID-19.

Arrested on heroin: A national opportunity

2007 ◽  
Vol 3 (6) ◽  
pp. 328 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy E. Boutwell, MD, MPP ◽  
Ank Nijhawan, MD ◽  
Nickolas Zaller, PhD ◽  
Josiah D. Rich, MD, MPH
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Drug Testing ◽  
Addiction Treatment ◽  
The United States ◽  
Heroin Addiction ◽  
Annual Number ◽  
Heroin Use ◽  
The Us ◽  
Pass Through

Objectives: Heroin addiction in the United States exacts significant social, economic, medical, and public health costs, estimated at almost $22 billion in 1996. The national drug control strategy of arrest and mandatory sentencing of drug offenders over the past two decades has resulted in ever greater numbers of drug users who encounter the criminal justice system each year. No estimate of heroin use among the US incarcerated population exists. The authors attempted to estimate the proportion of heroin-using individuals who pass through the corrections system annually to determine the potential impact of interventions designed to link heroin-using individuals to addiction treatment.Methods: The authors constructed an estimate by employing the following elements: arrestee drug-testing data, total number of arrests, an estimate of the mean annual number of arrests in a drug-using population, estimates of arrestees incarcerated, and estimates of heroin use and addiction in the US population. The authors present each component of the estimate and how it was derived, and conclude by discussing the degree of uncertainty in the estimates and the implications of our results for policy makers.Results: Using a conservative estimate, the authors found that 24 percent to 36 percent of all heroin addicts pass through the corrections system each year, representing more than 200,000 individuals.Conclusions: Viewed as a public health opportunity, effective linkage to addiction treatment could ultimately reduce the costs associated with poor health, disease transmission, criminality, and recidivism that heroin use exacts on individuals and communities.

Relation of Statistically Significant, Abnormal, and Typical WAIS-R VIQ-PIQ Discrepancies to Full Scale IQs

2000 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 107-114 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louis M. Hsu ◽  
Judy Hayman ◽  
Judith Koch ◽  
Debbie Mandell
Keyword(s):  
Graphical Method ◽  
The United States ◽  
Full Scale ◽  
True Score ◽  
Absolute Value ◽  
Normative Population ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Mean ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Quadratic Models

Summary: In the United States' normative population for the WAIS-R, differences (Ds) between persons' verbal and performance IQs (VIQs and PIQs) tend to increase with an increase in full scale IQs (FSIQs). This suggests that norm-referenced interpretations of Ds should take FSIQs into account. Two new graphs are presented to facilitate this type of interpretation. One of these graphs estimates the mean of absolute values of D (called typical D) at each FSIQ level of the US normative population. The other graph estimates the absolute value of D that is exceeded only 5% of the time (called abnormal D) at each FSIQ level of this population. A graph for the identification of conventional “statistically significant Ds” (also called “reliable Ds”) is also presented. A reliable D is defined in the context of classical true score theory as an absolute D that is unlikely (p < .05) to be exceeded by a person whose true VIQ and PIQ are equal. As conventionally defined reliable Ds do not depend on the FSIQ. The graphs of typical and abnormal Ds are based on quadratic models of the relation of sizes of Ds to FSIQs. These models are generalizations of models described in Hsu (1996) . The new graphical method of identifying Abnormal Ds is compared to the conventional Payne-Jones method of identifying these Ds. Implications of the three juxtaposed graphs for the interpretation of VIQ-PIQ differences are discussed.

The Politics of Prophecy: The US Culture Wars and the Battle Over Public Education in the Left Behind Series for Kids

2009 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-27
Author(s):  
Ann Abate Michelle
Keyword(s):  
Public Education ◽  
The United States ◽  
Culture Wars ◽  
Church History ◽  
Good News ◽  
Cultural Issues ◽  
School Prayer ◽  
Left Behind ◽  
Religious Books ◽  
The Us

This essay argues that in spite of their obvious Biblically-based subject matter, clear Christian content, and undeniable evangelical perspective, the Left Behind novels for kids are not simply religious books; they are also political ones. Co-authors Tim LaHaye and Jerry B. Jenkins may claim that their narratives are interested in sharing the good news about Jesus for the sake of the future, but they are equally concerned with offering commentary on contentious US cultural issues in the present. Given the books’ adolescent readership, they are especially preoccupied with the ongoing conservative crusade concerning school prayer. As advocates for this issue, LaHaye and Jenkins make use of a potent blend of current socio-political arguments and of past events in evangelical church history: namely, the American Sunday School Movement (ASSM). These free, open-access Sabbath schools became the model for the public education system in the United States. In drawing on this history, the Left Behind series suggests that the ASSM provides an important precedent for the presence not simply of Christianity in the nation's public school system, but of evangelical faith in particular.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document