scholarly journals Assessing the impact of human mobility to predict regional excess death in Ecuador

2022 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Leticia Cuéllar ◽  
Irene Torres ◽  
Ethan Romero-Severson ◽  
Riya Mahesh ◽  
Nathaniel Ortega ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Human Mobility ◽  
Sharp Decrease ◽  
Progressive Increase ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Excess Death ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Country Level ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Excess Deaths

AbstractCOVID-19 outbreaks have had high mortality in low- and middle-income countries such as Ecuador. Human mobility is an important factor influencing the spread of diseases possibly leading to a high burden of disease at the country level. Drastic control measures, such as complete lockdown, are effective epidemic controls, yet in practice one hopes that a partial shutdown would suffice. It is an open problem to determine how much mobility can be allowed while controlling an outbreak. In this paper, we use statistical models to relate human mobility to the excess death in Ecuador while controlling for demographic factors. The mobility index provided by GRANDATA, based on mobile phone users, represents the change of number of out-of-home events with respect to a benchmark date (March 2nd, 2020). The study confirms the global trend that more men are dying than expected compared to women, and that people under 30 show less deaths than expected, particularly individuals younger than 20 with a death rate reduction between 22 and 27%. The weekly median mobility time series shows a sharp decrease in human mobility immediately after a national lockdown was declared on March 17, 2020 and a progressive increase towards the pre-lockdown level within two months. Relating median mobility to excess deaths shows a lag in its effect: first, a decrease in mobility in the previous two to three weeks decreases excess death and, more novel, we found an increase of mobility variability four weeks prior increases the number of excess deaths.

scholarly journals Assessing the Impact of Human Mobility to Predict Regional Excess Death in Ecuador

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leticia Cuellar ◽  
Irene Torres ◽  
Ethan Obie Romero-Severson ◽  
Riya Mahesh ◽  
Nathaniel Ortega ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Human Mobility ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Sharp Decrease ◽  
Progressive Increase ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Excess Death ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Global Trend ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Excess Deaths

COVID-19 outbreaks have had high mortality in low- and medium-income countries such as Ecuador. Human mobility is an important factor influencing the spread of diseases possibly leading to a high burden of disease at the country level. Drastic control measures, such as complete lockdown are effective epidemic controls, yet in practice, one hopes that a partial shutdown would suffice. It is an open problem to determine how much mobility can be allowed while controlling an outbreak. In this paper, we use statistical models to relate human mobility to the excess death in Ecuador while controlling for demographic factors. The mobility index provided by GRANDATA, based on mobile phone users, represents the change of number of out-of-home events with respect to a benchmark date (March 2nd, the first date the data is available). The study confirms the global trend that more men are dying than expected compared to women, and that people under 30 show less deaths than expected. Specifically, individuals in the age groups younger than 20, we found have their death rate reduced during the pandemic between 22% and 27% of the expected deaths in the absence of COVID-19. The weekly median mobility time series shows a sharp decrease in human mobility immediately after a national lockdown was declared on March 17, 2020 and a progressive increase towards the pre-lockdown level within two months. Relating median mobility to excess death shows a lag in its effect: first, a decrease in mobility in the previous two to three weeks decreases the excess death and more novel, we found that an increase of mobility variability four weeks prior, increases the number of excess deaths.

scholarly journals Estimating the Impact and Cost of the WHO 2010 Recommendations for Antiretroviral Therapy

2011 ◽  
Vol 2011 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Stover ◽  
Lori Bollinger ◽  
Carlos Avila
Keyword(s):  
Antiretroviral Therapy ◽  
Cd4 Count ◽  
Eligibility Criterion ◽  
Eligibility Criteria ◽  
Art Programs ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
The Impact

In July 2010, WHO published new recommendations on providing antiretroviral therapy to adults and adolescents, including starting ART earlier, usually at a CD4 count of 350 or lower, specific regimens for first- and second-line therapies, and other recommendations. This paper estimates the potential impact and cost of the revised guidelines by first, calculating the number of people that would be in need of antiretroviral therapy (ART) with different eligibility criteria, and second, calculating the costs associated with the potential impact. Results indicate that switching the eligibility criterion from CD4 count <200 to <350 increases the need for ART in low- and middle-income countries (country-level) by 50% (range 34% to 70%). The costs of ART programs only to increase coverage to 80% by 2015 would be 44% more (range 29% to 63%) when switching the eligibility criterion to CD4 count <350. When testing and outreach costs are included, total costs increase by 62%, from US$26.3 billion under the previous eligibility criterion of treating those with CD4 <200 to US$42.5 billion using the revised eligibility criterion of treating those with CD4 <350.

scholarly journals The Impact of COVID-19 on the Care of Patients With Noncommunicable Diseases in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: An Online Survey of Patient Perspectives

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. 237437352110340
Author(s):  
Ratna Devi ◽  
Felicity Goodyear-Smith ◽  
Kannan Subramaniam ◽  
Jessica McCormack ◽  
Amanda Calder ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Noncommunicable Diseases ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mental Well Being ◽  
Low And Middle Income

We sought to gain insights into the impacts of COVID-19 and associated control measures on health and health care of patients from low- and middle-income countries with cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and mental health conditions, using an online survey during the COVID-19 pandemic. The most common concern for the 1487 patients who took part was contracting COVID-19 when they accessed health care. Of those infected with COVID-19, half said that their health had been worse since being infected. Collectively, most people reported an increase in feelings of stress and loneliness. The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a range of health care impacts on patients with noncommunicable diseases, including constraints on access to care and health effects, particularly mental well-being.

scholarly journals The Impact of Disease Control Measures on the Spread of COVID-19 in the Province of Sindh, Pakistan

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (11) ◽  
pp. e0260129
Author(s):  
Bilal Ahmed Usmani ◽  
Mustafain Ali ◽  
Muhammad Abul Hasan ◽  
Amna Rehana Siddiqui ◽  
Sameen Siddiqi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Control Measures ◽  
Government Control ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Time Points ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Modelling Framework ◽  
The Government ◽  
Developed Nations ◽  
The Impact

The province of Sindh reported the first COVID-19 case in Pakistan on 26th February 2020. The Government of Sindh has employed numerous control measures to limit its spread. However, for low-and middle-income countries such as Pakistan, the management protocols for controlling a pandemic are not always as definitive as they would be in other developed nations. Given the dire socio-economic conditions of Sindh, continuation of province-wise lockdowns may inadvertently cause a potential economic breakdown. By using a data driven SEIR modelling framework, this paper describes the evolution of the epidemic projections because of government control measures. The data from reported COVID-19 prevalence and google mobility is used to parameterize the model at different time points. These time points correspond to the government’s call for advice on the prerequisite actions required to curtail the spread of COVID-19 in Sindh. Our model predicted the epidemic peak to occur by 18th June 2020 with approximately 3500 reported cases at that peak, this projection correlated with the actual recorded peak during the first wave of the disease in Sindh. The impact of the governmental control actions and religious ceremonies on the epidemic profile during this first wave of COVID-19 are clearly reflected in the model outcomes through variations in the epidemic peaks. We also report these variations by displaying the trajectory of the epidemics had the control measures been guided differently; the epidemic peak may have occurred as early as the end of May 2020 with approximately 5000 reported cases per day had there been no control measures and as late as August 2020 with only around 2000 cases at the peak had the lockdown continued, nearly flattening the epidemic curve.

The Impact of Covid 19 on Pregnant Women and Child Health

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (SPL1) ◽  
pp. 1367-1373
Author(s):  
Nikhil Sanjay Mujbaile ◽  
Smita Damke
Keyword(s):  
Social Issues ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Web Based ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Low Middle Income Countries ◽  
The Social ◽  
Social Separation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
And Child Health ◽  
General Wellbeing

The Covid illness (COVID-19) pandemic has spread rapidly all through the world and has had a drawn-out impact. The Pandemic has done incredible damage to society and made genuine mental injury to numerous individuals. Mental emergencies frequently cause youngsters to deliver sentiments of relinquishment, despondency, insufficiency, and fatigue and even raise the danger of self-destruction. Youngsters with psychological instabilities are particularly powerless during the isolate and colonial removing period. Convenient and proper assurances are expected to forestall the event of mental and social issues. The rising advanced applications and wellbeing administrations, for example, telehealth, web-based media, versatile wellbeing, and far off intuitive online instruction can connect the social separation and backing mental and conduct wellbeing for youngsters. Because of the mental advancement qualities of youngsters, this investigation additionally outlines intercessions on the mental effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic. Further difficulties in Low Middle-Income Countries incorporate the failure to actualize successful general wellbeing estimates, for example, social separating, hand cleanliness, definitive distinguishing proof of contaminated individuals with self-disconnection and widespread utilization of covers The aberrant impacts of the Pandemic on youngster wellbeing are of extensive concern, including expanding neediness levels, upset tutoring, absence of admittance to the class taking care of plans, decreased admittance to wellbeing offices and breaks in inoculation and other kid wellbeing programs. Kept tutoring is critical for kids in Low Middle-Income Countries. Arrangement of safe situations is mainly testing in packed asset obliged schools. 

scholarly journals Climate drivers of plague epidemiology in British India, 1898–1949

2020 ◽  
Vol 287 (1928) ◽  
pp. 20200538
Author(s):  
Warren S. D. Tennant ◽  
Mike J. Tildesley ◽  
Simon E. F. Spencer ◽  
Matt J. Keeling
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Models ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
British India ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Complex Interactions ◽  
The World ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Plague, caused by Yersinia pestis infection, continues to threaten low- and middle-income countries throughout the world. The complex interactions between rodents and fleas with their respective environments challenge our understanding of human plague epidemiology. Historical long-term datasets of reported plague cases offer a unique opportunity to elucidate the effects of climate on plague outbreaks in detail. Here, we analyse monthly plague deaths and climate data from 25 provinces in British India from 1898 to 1949 to generate insights into the influence of temperature, rainfall and humidity on the occurrence, severity and timing of plague outbreaks. We find that moderate relative humidity levels of between 60% and 80% were strongly associated with outbreaks. Using wavelet analysis, we determine that the nationwide spread of plague was driven by changes in humidity, where, on average, a one-month delay in the onset of rising humidity translated into a one-month delay in the timing of plague outbreaks. This work can inform modern spatio-temporal predictive models for the disease and aid in the development of early-warning strategies for the deployment of prophylactic treatments and other control measures.

Defining Preterm Birth and Stillbirth in the Western Pacific: A Systematic Review

2021 ◽  
pp. 101053952110260
Author(s):  
Mairead Connolly ◽  
Laura Phung ◽  
Elise Farrington ◽  
Michelle J. L. Scoullar ◽  
Alyce N. Wilson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Preterm Birth ◽  
National Level ◽  
Health Indicators ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
World Health ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact

Preterm birth and stillbirth are important global perinatal health indicators. Definitions of these indicators can differ between countries, affecting comparability of preterm birth and stillbirth rates across countries. This study aimed to document national-level adherence to World Health Organization (WHO) definitions of preterm birth and stillbirth in the WHO Western Pacific region. A systematic search of government health websites and 4 electronic databases was conducted. Any official report or published study describing the national definition of preterm birth or stillbirth published between 2000 and 2020 was eligible for inclusion. A total of 58 data sources from 21 countries were identified. There was considerable variation in how preterm birth and stillbirth was defined across the region. The most frequently used lower gestational age threshold for viability of preterm birth was 28 weeks gestation (range 20-28 weeks), and stillbirth was most frequently classified from 20 weeks gestation (range 12-28 weeks). High-income countries more frequently used earlier gestational ages for preterm birth and stillbirth compared with low- to middle-income countries. The findings highlight the importance of clear, standardized, internationally comparable definitions for perinatal indicators. Further research is needed to determine the impact on regional preterm birth and stillbirth rates.

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