scholarly journals Assessing the Impact of Human Mobility to Predict Regional Excess Death in Ecuador

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leticia Cuellar ◽  
Irene Torres ◽  
Ethan Obie Romero-Severson ◽  
Riya Mahesh ◽  
Nathaniel Ortega ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Human Mobility ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Sharp Decrease ◽  
Progressive Increase ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Excess Death ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Global Trend ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Excess Deaths

COVID-19 outbreaks have had high mortality in low- and medium-income countries such as Ecuador. Human mobility is an important factor influencing the spread of diseases possibly leading to a high burden of disease at the country level. Drastic control measures, such as complete lockdown are effective epidemic controls, yet in practice, one hopes that a partial shutdown would suffice. It is an open problem to determine how much mobility can be allowed while controlling an outbreak. In this paper, we use statistical models to relate human mobility to the excess death in Ecuador while controlling for demographic factors. The mobility index provided by GRANDATA, based on mobile phone users, represents the change of number of out-of-home events with respect to a benchmark date (March 2nd, the first date the data is available). The study confirms the global trend that more men are dying than expected compared to women, and that people under 30 show less deaths than expected. Specifically, individuals in the age groups younger than 20, we found have their death rate reduced during the pandemic between 22% and 27% of the expected deaths in the absence of COVID-19. The weekly median mobility time series shows a sharp decrease in human mobility immediately after a national lockdown was declared on March 17, 2020 and a progressive increase towards the pre-lockdown level within two months. Relating median mobility to excess death shows a lag in its effect: first, a decrease in mobility in the previous two to three weeks decreases the excess death and more novel, we found that an increase of mobility variability four weeks prior, increases the number of excess deaths.

scholarly journals Assessing the impact of human mobility to predict regional excess death in Ecuador

2022 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Leticia Cuéllar ◽  
Irene Torres ◽  
Ethan Romero-Severson ◽  
Riya Mahesh ◽  
Nathaniel Ortega ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Human Mobility ◽  
Sharp Decrease ◽  
Progressive Increase ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Excess Death ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Country Level ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Excess Deaths

AbstractCOVID-19 outbreaks have had high mortality in low- and middle-income countries such as Ecuador. Human mobility is an important factor influencing the spread of diseases possibly leading to a high burden of disease at the country level. Drastic control measures, such as complete lockdown, are effective epidemic controls, yet in practice one hopes that a partial shutdown would suffice. It is an open problem to determine how much mobility can be allowed while controlling an outbreak. In this paper, we use statistical models to relate human mobility to the excess death in Ecuador while controlling for demographic factors. The mobility index provided by GRANDATA, based on mobile phone users, represents the change of number of out-of-home events with respect to a benchmark date (March 2nd, 2020). The study confirms the global trend that more men are dying than expected compared to women, and that people under 30 show less deaths than expected, particularly individuals younger than 20 with a death rate reduction between 22 and 27%. The weekly median mobility time series shows a sharp decrease in human mobility immediately after a national lockdown was declared on March 17, 2020 and a progressive increase towards the pre-lockdown level within two months. Relating median mobility to excess deaths shows a lag in its effect: first, a decrease in mobility in the previous two to three weeks decreases excess death and, more novel, we found an increase of mobility variability four weeks prior increases the number of excess deaths.

scholarly journals Excess mortality in Guadeloupe and Martinique, islands of the French West Indies, during the chikungunya epidemic of 2014

2018 ◽  
Vol 146 (16) ◽  
pp. 2059-2065 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. R. R. Freitas ◽  
P. M. Alarcón-Elbal ◽  
M. R. Donalisio
Keyword(s):  
Strong Correlation ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
Mortality And Morbidity ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Excess Deaths

AbstractIn some chikungunya epidemics, deaths are not completely captured by traditional surveillance systems, which record case and death reports. We evaluated excess deaths associated with the 2014 chikungunya virus (CHIKV) epidemic in Guadeloupe and Martinique, Antilles. Population (784 097 inhabitants) and mortality data, estimated by sex and age, were accessed from the Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques in France. Epidemiological data, cases, hospitalisations and deaths on CHIKV were obtained from the official epidemiological reports of the Cellule de Institut de Veille Sanitaire in France. Excess deaths were calculated as the difference between the expected and observed deaths for all age groups for each month in 2014 and 2015, considering the upper limit of 99% confidence interval. The Pearson correlation coefficient showed a strong correlation between monthly excess deaths and reported cases of chikungunya (R= 0.81,p< 0.005) and with a 1-month lag (R= 0.87,p< 0.001); and a strong correlation was also observed between monthly rates of hospitalisation for CHIKV and excess deaths with a delay of 1 month (R= 0.87,p< 0.0005). The peak of the epidemic occurred in the month with the highest mortality, returning to normal soon after the end of the CHIKV epidemic. There were excess deaths in almost all age groups, and excess mortality rate was higher among the elderly but was similar between male and female individuals. The overall mortality estimated in the current study (639 deaths) was about four times greater than that obtained through death declarations (160 deaths). Although the aetiological diagnosis of all deaths associated with CHIKV infection is not always possible, already well-known statistical tools can contribute to the evaluation of the impact of CHIKV on mortality and morbidity in the different age groups.

scholarly journals Modelling control measures to reduce the impact of pandemic influenza among schoolchildren

2007 ◽  
Vol 136 (8) ◽  
pp. 1035-1045 ◽  
Author(s):  
S.-C. CHEN ◽  
C.-M. LIAO
Keyword(s):  
Elementary School ◽  
Pandemic Influenza ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Integrated Approach ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Transmission Potential ◽  
Vaccination Coverage Rate ◽  
Control Programmes ◽  
The Impact

SUMMARYWe coupled the Wells–Riley equation and the susceptible–exposed–infected–recovery (SEIR) model to quantify the impact of the combination of indoor air-based control measures of enhanced ventilation and respiratory masking in containing pandemic influenza within an elementary school. We integrated indoor environmental factors of a real elementary school and aetiological characteristics of influenza to estimate the age-specific risk of infection (P) and basic reproduction number (R0). We combined the enhanced ventilation rates of 0·5, 1, 1·5, and 2/h and respiratory masking with 60%, 70%, 80%, and 95% efficacies, respectively, to predict the reducing level of R0. We also took into account the critical vaccination coverage rate among schoolchildren. Age-specific P and R0 were estimated respectively to be 0·29 and 16·90; 0·56 and 16·11; 0·59 and 12·88; 0·64 and 16·09; and 0·07 and 2·80 for five age groups 4–6, 7–8, 9–10, 11–12, and 25–45 years, indicating pre-schoolchildren have the highest transmission potential. We conclude that our integrated approach, employing the mechanism of transmission of indoor respiratory infection, population-dynamic transmission model, and the impact of infectious control programmes, is a powerful tool for risk profiling prediction of pandemic influenza among schoolchildren.

scholarly journals The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Moritz U.G. Kraemer ◽  
Chia-Hung Yang ◽  
Bernardo Gutierrez ◽  
Chieh-Hsi Wu ◽  
Brennan Klein ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Human Mobility ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Human Populations ◽  
Travel History ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
State Interventions ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe ongoing COVID-19 outbreak has expanded rapidly throughout China. Major behavioral, clinical, and state interventions are underway currently to mitigate the epidemic and prevent the persistence of the virus in human populations in China and worldwide. It remains unclear how these unprecedented interventions, including travel restrictions, have affected COVID-19 spread in China. We use real-time mobility data from Wuhan and detailed case data including travel history to elucidate the role of case importation on transmission in cities across China and ascertain the impact of control measures. Early on, the spatial distribution of COVID-19 cases in China was well explained by human mobility data. Following the implementation of control measures, this correlation dropped and growth rates became negative in most locations, although shifts in the demographics of reported cases are still indicative of local chains of transmission outside Wuhan. This study shows that the drastic control measures implemented in China have substantially mitigated the spread of COVID-19.

scholarly journals Excess deaths reveal unequal impact of COVID-19 in Ecuador

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (9) ◽  
pp. e006446
Author(s):  
Leticia Cuéllar ◽  
Irene Torres ◽  
Ethan Romero-Severson ◽  
Riya Mahesh ◽  
Nathaniel Ortega ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Diagnostic Testing ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Indigenous Women ◽  
Indigenous Populations ◽  
Significant Finding ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Excess Death ◽  
Higher Ed ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
Excess Deaths

Latin America has struggled to control the transmission of COVID-19. Comparison of excess death (ED) rates during the pandemic reveals that Ecuador is among the highest impacted countries. In this analysis, we update our previous findings with the most complete all-cause mortality records available for 2020, disaggregated by sex, age, ethnicity and geography. Our study shows that in 2020, Ecuador had a 64% ED rate (95% CI 63% to 65%) or 64% more deaths than expected. Men had a higher ED rate, 75% (95% CI 73% to 76%), than women’s 51% (95% CI 49% to 52%), and this pattern of higher EDs for men than women held for most age groups. The only exception was the 20–29 age group, where women had 19% more deaths, compared to 10% more deaths for men, but that difference is not statistically significant. The analysis provides striking evidence of the lack of COVID-19 diagnostic testing in Ecuador: the confirmed COVID-19 deaths in 2020 accounted for only 21% of total EDs. Our significant finding is that indigenous populations, who typically account for about 5% of the deaths, show almost four times the ED rate of the majority mestizo group. Indigenous women in each age group have higher ED rates than the general population and, in ages between 20 and 49 years, they have higher ED rates than indigenous men. Indigenous women in the age group 20–29 years had an ED rate of 141%, which is commensurate to the ED rate of indigenous women older than 40 years.

scholarly journals The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on gastrointestinal infection trends in England, February - July 2020

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicola K Love ◽  
Alex J Elliot ◽  
Rachel Chalmers ◽  
Amy Douglas ◽  
Saheer Gharbia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Age Groups ◽  
Marked Change ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
Health Seeking Behaviour ◽  
Outbreak Response ◽  
Health Seeking ◽  
Historic Data ◽  
Gi Infections ◽  
The Impact

Objective: To establish the impact of the first six months of the COVID-19 outbreak response of gastrointestinal (GI) infection trends in England. Design: Retrospective ecological study using routinely collected national and regional surveillance data from eight Public Health England coordinated laboratory, outbreak and syndromic surveillance systems using key dates of UK governmental policy change to assign phases for comparison between 2020 and historic data. Results: Decreases in GI illness activity were observed across all surveillance indicators as COVID-19 cases began to peak. Compared to the 5-year average (2015-2019), during the first six months of the COVD-19 response, there was a 52% decrease in GI outbreaks reported (1,544 vs. 3,208 (95% CI: 2,938 - 3,478) and a 34% decrease in laboratory confirmed cases (27,859 vs. 42,495 (95% CI: 40,068 - 44,922). GI indicators began to rise during the first lockdown and lockdown easing, although all remained substantially lower than historic figures. Reductions in laboratory confirmed cases were observed across all age groups and both sexes, with geographical heterogeneity observed in diagnosis trends. Health seeking behaviour changed substantially, with attendances decreasing prior to lockdown across all indicators. Conclusions: There has been a marked change in trends of GI infections in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. The drivers of this change are likely to be multifactorial; while changes in health seeking behaviour, pressure on diagnostic services and surveillance system ascertainment have undoubtably played a role there has likely been a true decrease in the incidence for some pathogens resulting from the control measures and restrictions implemented. This suggests that if some of these changes in behaviour such as improved hand hygiene were maintained, then we could potentially see sustained reductions in the burden of GI illness.

scholarly journals Modelling COVID-19 contagion: Risk assessment and targeted mitigation policies

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rama Cont ◽  
RenYuan Xu ◽  
Artur Kotlicki
Keyword(s):  
Age Groups ◽  
Local Monitoring ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Regional Dynamics ◽  
Spatial Epidemic Model ◽  
Contagion Risk ◽  
Vulnerable Subpopulations ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mitigation Policies

We use a spatial epidemic model with demographic and geographic heterogeneity to study the regional dynamics of COVID-19 across 133 regions in England. Our model emphasises the role of variability of regional outcomes and heterogeneity across age groups and geographic locations, and provides a framework for assessing the impact of policies targeted towards sub-populations or regions. We define a concept of efficiency for comparative analysis of epidemic control policies and show targeted mitigation policies based on local monitoring to be more efficient than country-level or non-targeted measures. In particular, our results emphasise the importance of shielding vulnerable subpopulations and show that targeted policies based on local monitoring can considerably lower fatality forecasts and, in many cases, prevent the emergence of second waves which may occur under centralised policies.

Foreign direct investment rules in selected European countries – an overview

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Geoffrey P. Burgess ◽  
Timothy McIver ◽  
Philippe Tenglemann ◽  
Rosanne Lariven ◽  
Andrea Pomana ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Criminal Sanctions ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Global Trend ◽  
The Uk ◽  
European Economies ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

Purpose To provide an overview of the national foreign direct investment (“FDI”) screening mechanisms in place across Europe including in France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain and the UK. Design/methodology/approach This article summarizes the key elements of the national FDI screening regimes of some of the leading European economies. This includes setting out the relevant investment thresholds, protected sectors, lengths of review periods, standstill obligations and potential sanctions in each jurisdiction. Findings Many of Europe’s leading economies are following the wider global trend towards stricter reviews of foreign investment ahead of the EU Screening Regulation coming into force in October 2020. However, the approach taken to FDI screening can vary significantly at a country level in terms of both process and substance and the applicable laws are evolving rapidly, not least as a response to concerns related to the impact of COVID-19. Practical implications Investors looking to make acquisitions in Europe will need to consider whether national FDI screening will apply to their proposed investments. Depending on the jurisdiction, FDI screening can introduce lengthy review periods and require detailed information gathering as well as uncertainty as to the final outcome. Potential investors also need to consider the risk of sanctions, including criminal sanctions, for non-compliance with the screening regimes. Originality/value This article offers a summary and comparison of national FDI screening regimes across Europe.

scholarly journals Human mobility and COVID-19 initial dynamics

2020 ◽  
Vol 101 (3) ◽  
pp. 1901-1919 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefano Maria Iacus ◽  
Carlos Santamaria ◽  
Francesco Sermi ◽  
Spyros Spyratos ◽  
Dario Tarchi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Coming Out ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Mobile Network ◽  
Systematic Analysis ◽  
Mobile Data ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Internal Mobility ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Excess Deaths

Abstract Countries in Europe took different mobility containment measures to curb the spread of COVID-19. The European Commission asked mobile network operators to share on a voluntarily basis anonymised and aggregate mobile data to improve the quality of modelling and forecasting for the pandemic at EU level. In fact, mobility data at EU scale can help understand the dynamics of the pandemic and possibly limit the impact of future waves. Still, since a reliable and consistent method to measure the evolution of contagion at international level is missing, a systematic analysis of the relationship between human mobility and virus spread has never been conducted. A notable exceptions are France and Italy, for which data on excess deaths, an indirect indicator which is generally considered to be less affected by national and regional assumptions, are available at department and municipality level, respectively. Using this information together with anonymised and aggregated mobile data, this study shows that mobility alone can explain up to 92% of the initial spread in these two EU countries, while it has a slow decay effect after lockdown measures, meaning that mobility restrictions seem to have effectively contribute to save lives. It also emerges that internal mobility is more important than mobility across provinces and that the typical lagged positive effect of reduced human mobility on reducing excess deaths is around 14–20 days. An analogous analysis relative to Spain, for which an IgG SARS-Cov-2 antibody screening study at province level is used instead of excess deaths statistics, confirms the findings. The same approach adopted in this study can be easily extended to other European countries, as soon as reliable data on the spreading of the virus at a suitable level of granularity will be available. Looking at past data, relative to the initial phase of the outbreak in EU Member States, this study shows in which extent the spreading of the virus and human mobility are connected. The findings will support policymakers in formulating the best data-driven approaches for coming out of confinement and mostly in building future scenarios in case of new outbreaks.

scholarly journals Targeting Malaria Hotspots to Reduce Transmission Incidence in Senegal

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 76
Author(s):  
Kankoé Sallah ◽  
Roch Giorgi ◽  
El-Hadj Ba ◽  
Martine Piarroux ◽  
Renaud Piarroux ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Malaria Incidence ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Intervention Strategy ◽  
Scaling Up ◽  
Intervention Strategies ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Transmission Season ◽  
Additional Control ◽  
The Impact

In central Senegal, malaria incidence declined in response to scaling-up of control measures from 2000 to 2010 and has since remained stable, making elimination unlikely in the short term. Additional control measures are needed to reduce transmission. We simulated chemoprophylaxis interventions targeting malaria hotspots using a metapopulation mathematical model, based on a differential-equation framework and incorporating human mobility. The model was fitted to weekly malaria incidence from 45 villages. Three approaches for selecting intervention targets were compared: (a) villages with malaria cases during the low transmission season of the previous year; (b) villages with highest incidence during the high transmission season of the previous year; (c) villages with highest connectivity with adjacent populations. Our results showed that intervention strategies targeting hotspots would be effective in reducing malaria incidence in both targeted and untargeted areas. Regardless of the intervention strategy used, pre-elimination (1–5 cases per 1000 per year) would not be reached without simultaneously increasing vector control by more than 10%. A cornerstone of malaria control and elimination is the effective targeting of strategic locations. Mathematical tools help to identify those locations and estimate the impact in silico.

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