Long-term ecosystem nitrogen limitation from foliar δ15N data and a land surface model

The effect of nutrient availability on plant growth and the terrestrial carbon sink under climate change and elevated CO2 remains one of the main uncertainties of the terrestrial carbon cycle. This is partially due to the difficulty of assessing nutrient limitation at large scales over long periods of time. Consistent declines in leaf nitrogen (N) content and leaf δ15N have been used to suggest that nitrogen limitation has increased in recent decades, most likely due to the concurrent increase in atmospheric CO2. However, such datasets are often not straightforward to interpret due to the complex factors that contribute to the spatial and temporal variation in leaf N and isotope concentration. We use the land surface model QUINCY, which has the unique capacity to represent N isotopic processes, in conjunction with two large datasets of foliar N and N isotope content. We run the model with different scenarios to test whether foliar δ15N isotopic data can be used to infer large scale nitrogen limitation and if the observed trends are caused by increasing atmospheric CO2, changes in climate or changes in sources of anthropogenic N deposition. We show that while the model can capture the observed change in leaf N content and predicts widespread increases in N limitation, it does not capture the pronounced, but very spatially heterogeneous, decrease in foliar δ15N observed in the data across the globe. The addition of an observed temporal trend in isotopic composition of N deposition leads to a more pronounced decrease in simulated leaf δ15N. Our results show that leaf δ15N observations should not, on their own, be used to assess global scale N limitation and that using such a dataset in conjunction with a land surface model can reveal the drivers behind the observed patterns.