scholarly journals Combined impacts of climate and land use change and the future of Neotropical bat biodiversity

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fernando Goncalves ◽  
Lilian P. Sales ◽  
Mauro Galetti ◽  
Mathias M. Pires
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Global Change ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Habitat Type ◽  
Turnover Rates ◽  
High Turnover ◽  
Range Contraction ◽  
Functional Changes ◽  
The Future ◽  
Habitat Specialists

Forecasting the effects of global change on biodiversity is necessary to anticipate the threats operating at different scales in space and time. Climate change may create unsuitable environmental conditions, forcing species to move to persist. However, land-use changes create barriers that limit the access of some species to future available habitats. Here, we project the impacts of climate and land-use change on 228 Neotropical bat species by forecasting changes in environmental suitability, while accounting for the effect of habitat type specialization and simulating dispersal across suitable patches. We also identify the most vulnerable ecoregions and those that may offer future stable refugia. We further investigate potential functional changes by analysing the response of different trophic guilds. We found that the range contraction of habitat specialists, especially frugivores, was more frequent and stronger under all simulated scenarios. Projected changes differ markedly across ecoregions. While the Amazon region is likely to undergo high turnover rates in bat composition, the Andean grassland, Cerrado and Chaco might experience the greatest losses. The expansion of habitat generalists, which forage in open areas and commonly establish large colonies in manmade structures, coupled with the range contraction of habitat specialists is projected to homogenize bat communities across the Neotropics. Overall, dispersal will likely be the key for the future of Neotropical bat diversity. Therefore, safeguarding the refugia highlighted here, by expanding and connecting the existing network of protected areas, for example, may allow species to move in response to global change.

scholarly journals Current and Future Land Use Characters of a National Central City in Eco-Fragile Region—A Case Study in Xi’an City Based on FLUS Model

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 286
Author(s):  
Dingrao Feng ◽  
Wenkai Bao ◽  
Meichen Fu ◽  
Min Zhang ◽  
Yiyu Sun
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Urban Development ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Land Use Patterns ◽  
Use Patterns ◽  
Pattern Change ◽  
Land Use Dynamics ◽  
The Future ◽  
Xi’An City

Land use change plays a key role in terrestrial systems and drives the process of ecological pattern change. It is important to investigate the process of land use change, predict land use patterns, and reveal the characteristics of land use dynamics. In this study, we adopted the Markov model and future land use (FLUS) model to predict the future land use conditions in Xi’an city. Furthermore, we investigated the characteristics of land use change from a novel perspective, i.e., via establishment of a complex network model. This model captured the characteristics of the land use system during different periods. The results indicated that urban expansion and cropland loss played an important role in land use pattern change. The future gravity center of urban development moved along the opposite direction to that from 2000 to 2015 in Xi’an city. Although the rate of urban expansion declined in the future, urban expansion remained the primary driver of land use change. The primary urban development directions were east-southeast (ENE), north-northeast (NNE) and west-southwest (WSW) from 1990 to 2000, 2000 to 2015, and 2015 to 2030, respectively. In fact, cropland played a vital role in land use dynamics regarding all land use types, and the stability of the land use system decreased in the future. Our study provides future land use patterns and a novel perspective to better understand land use change.

scholarly journals Modelling the future impacts of climate and land-use change on suspended sediment transport in the River Thames (UK)

2016 ◽  
Vol 542 ◽  
pp. 357-372 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gianbattista Bussi ◽  
Simon J. Dadson ◽  
Christel Prudhomme ◽  
Paul G. Whitehead
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Sediment Transport ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Suspended Sediment ◽  
Suspended Sediment Transport ◽  
The Future ◽  
River Thames

scholarly journals Influence of Climate and Land Use Change on the Groundwater System of the Veluwe, The Netherlands: A Historical and Future Perspective

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 2866
Author(s):  
Marjolein H. J. Van Huijgevoort ◽  
Bernard R. Voortman ◽  
Sjoerd Rijpkema ◽  
Kelly H. S. Nijhuis ◽  
Jan-Philip M. Witte
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
Groundwater Recharge ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Pine Forest ◽  
Future Perspective ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Groundwater Levels ◽  
The Future

Changes in land use and climate have a large influence on groundwater recharge and levels. In The Netherlands, precipitation shifts from summer to winter are expected, combined with an increase in summer temperature leading to higher evaporation. These changes in climate could threaten the fresh water supply and increase the importance of large groundwater reservoirs. Sustainable management of these groundwater reservoirs, therefore, is crucial. Changes in land use could help mitigate the effects of climate change by decreasing the evaporation. In this study, we investigate the effect of changes in climate and land use on a large groundwater reservoir in The Netherlands, the Veluwe, for a historical period (1850–2016) and in the future (2036–2065). During the historical period, evaporation increased due to conversions from heather and drift sand to pine forest across the Veluwe. This change in land use had a larger effect on the groundwater recharge than change in climate over the historical period. In the future, an increase in winter precipitation will lead to higher groundwater levels in the elevated parts of the region. Surrounding areas are more vulnerable to an increase in dry periods in the summer. Groundwater reservoirs provide an opportunity to store water during wetter periods, which could alleviate drought impacts in surrounding regions during dry periods. Land use change, such as conversion from pine forest to other land use types, is a possible measure to increase water availability.

Detecting changes in irrigation water requirement in Central Asia under CO2 fertilization and land use changes

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Tian ◽  
Yongqiang Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Winter Wheat ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
Irrigation Water ◽  
Water Requirement ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Irrigation Water Requirement ◽  
Maximum Increase ◽  
The Future

<p><span>As one of the largest arid and semiarid areas in the world, Central Asia (CA) has been facing severe water crisis. Agricultural irrigation consumes most water resources there. However, it is not clear how the irrigation water requirement (IWR) varies spatially and temporally in CA, especially under CO<sub>2</sub> fertilization and land use change. This study, for the first time, quantifies changes of IWR for two predominant crops (cotton and winter wheat) over CA under two climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, both of which consider CO<sub>2</sub> fertilization effects) and land use projections. Our results show that without considering atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentration for estimating IWR would result in large errors and even different signs of the changes. In the future, IWR for cotton and winter wheat tends to increase in 2020s and 2040s but decrease in 2060s and 2080s under RCP2.6 and CO<sub>2</sub> fertilization. The change magnitude is less than 5%. Under RCP4.5 and CO<sub>2</sub> fertilization, most areas in CA exhibit an increase of less than 5%. The maximum increases of 5%-15% for cotton occur in </span><span> Tajikistan</span><span>. The maximum increase of more than 50% for winter wheat occurs in Tajikistan</span> <span>under both climate scenarios. The IWR in Turkmenistan</span> <span>is most sensitive to land use change, with 33% increase compared with IWR in 2015. The other four countries have small differences (less than 10%) between 2015 and 2030. Severe water security pressure is predicted in Turkmenistan</span> <span>and Uzbekistan </span><span>and the smallest in Tajikistan</span><span>. This study provides a comprehensive evaluation of IWR for the Central Asian countries in the future and helps the decision maker for sensible water management.</span></p>

scholarly journals Dynamic Land Use Change Prediction and Analysis of Its Impacts on Streamflow for Dabus Watershed, Upper Blue Nile Basin

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neseredin Bashawal Mangel ◽  
Fitsum Berhe
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Test Analysis ◽  
Blue Nile Basin ◽  
The Future ◽  
Kappa Value ◽  
Change Prediction ◽  
Basin System

Based on the recorded watershed characteristics, the future conditions on the basin system can be predicted using a different method. In this study, dynamic land-use change and its impacts on the streamflow for the Dabus watershed were predicted using ANN-CA based method. The model performance for accurate prediction of the future land-use change on the Dabus River watershed has been checked by validation of the simulated value with the actual value, hence the overall kappa value (k) = 0.83 for the simulated 2016-LULC validated with actual 2016-LULC. Then, 2026-LULC was predicted based on the 2004 and 2009-LULC. The streamflow for the case of 2004 and 2009-LULC has been simulated using the SWAT model. The value of NSE = 0.87 and 0.90 was attained during validation of simulated streamflow for 2004 and 2009-LULC data cases, respectively. The agreement of simulated value of streamflow with the observed data is indicated as R2 = 0.91 and 0.96 for 2004-LULC and 2009-LULC. The effects of the dynamic land-use change on streamflow for the predicted land use(2026-LULC) catchment were evaluated by T-test analysis. Hence, T-stat =0.04 and -0.002 in the case of simulated streamflow used 2004-LULC and 2009-LULC, respectively compared with simulated value using 2026-LULC.

scholarly journals Tracing climate and land-use instability reveals new insights into the future of Earth’s remaining wilderness

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ernest Asamoah ◽  
Moreno Di Marco ◽  
James Watson ◽  
Linda Beaumont ◽  
Oscar Venter ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Environmental Change ◽  
Biodiversity Conservation ◽  
Conservation Value ◽  
Natural Ecosystems ◽  
The Future ◽  
Wilderness Areas ◽  
Global Biodiversity

Abstract Accelerated loss of Earth’s wilderness over the last five decades underscores the urgency for efforts to retain the conservation value of these areas. Assessing how wilderness areas are likely to be impacted by the future environmental change is fundamental to achieving global biodiversity conservation goals. Using scenarios of climate and land-use change during baseline (1970–2005) and future (2015–2050) epochs, we found that climate change within wilderness areas is predicted to increase by ~ 47%, compared to a 19% increase in land-use change. Half (52%) of all wilderness areas may undergo climate change by 2050, limiting their capacity to shelter biodiversity. More significant changes are especially predicted to occur in the unprotected wilderness that supports unique assemblages of species and are therefore more important for biodiversity persistence. Countries with smaller and disconnected wilderness areas are disproportionately at risk from the combined impacts of climate and land-use change. Mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and preserving remaining intact natural ecosystems can help fortify these frontiers of biodiversity.

scholarly journals New land use change scenarios for Brazil: refining global SSPs with a regional spatially-explicit allocation model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisco Gilney Silva Bezerra ◽  
Celso Von Randow ◽  
Talita Oliveira Assis ◽  
Karine Rocha Aguiar Bezerra ◽  
Graciela Tejada ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Forest Restoration ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Analysis ◽  
Spatially Explicit ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Allocation Model ◽  
The Future

The future of land use and cover change in Brazil, in particular due to deforestation and forest restoration processes, is critical for the future of global climate and biodiversity, given the richness of its five biomes. These changes in Brazil depend on the interlink between global factors, due to its role as one of the main exporters of commodities in the world, and the national to local institutional, socioeconomic and biophysical contexts. Aiming to develop scenarios that consider the balance between global and local factors, a new set of land use change scenarios for Brazil were developed, aligned with the global structure Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs) developed by the global change research community. The narratives of the new scenarios align with  SSP1/RCP 1.9, SSP2/RCP 4.5, and SSP3/RCP 7.0. The scenarios were developed combining the LuccME spatially explicit land change allocation modeling framework and the INLAND surface model to incorporate the climatic variables in water deficit.  Based on detailed biophysical, socio-economic and institutional factors for each biome in Brazil, we have created spatially-explicit scenarios  until 2050, considering the following classes: forest vegetation, grassland vegetation, planted pasture, agriculture, mosaic of small land uses, and forestry. The results aim at regionally detailing global models and could be used both regionally to support decision-making, but also to enrich global analysis.

scholarly journals Comparison of Logistic Regression and Geomod Approaches to Forest Change Modeling in the Period of 1988 – 2025

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Somayeh Galdavi ◽  
Marjan Mohammadzadeh ◽  
Abdolrassoul Salman Mahiny ◽  
Ali Najafi Nejad
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Forest Area ◽  
Successful Implementation ◽  
Forest Change ◽  
Error Matrix ◽  
Time Period ◽  
The Future ◽  
Land Use Maps

Spatial modelling of land use change is a technique for understanding changes in terms of the location and amount. In this study, logistic regression and Geomod approaches were used for modelling forest change in Gorgan area in Northern Iran in the time period of 1988-2007. To do this, at first, remotely sensed imagery data of the years 1988, 1998 and 2007 were used to produce land use maps. Land use maps accuracy assessments were achieved using Error matrix method and then the maps were used to implement change detection process in two time periods of 1988-1998 and 1998-2007. Results indicated a reduction in forest areas during the mentioned time period. Next, the independent variables were extracted in order to land use change modeling. The Results of the models implementation showed the ability of both models for forest change modeling in this region. Also, the models were used to predict the future condition of forest area in the years 2016 and 2025. The results revealed that the forest area would be associated with a reduction in the future. Comparison of the results of the models using kappa indices showed the successful implementation of both models for forest change modelling in this region. The results of this research reveal the need for appropriate applications of the proper plans to control land use change in order to preserve the environment and ecological balance of the area. Therefore, careful planning can reduce the land use change and its impacts in the future in this region.

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