scholarly journals COVID-19 Vaccination and Healthcare Demand

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew I. Betti ◽  
Amira Hassan Abouleish ◽  
Victoria Spofford ◽  
Cory Peddigrew ◽  
Alan Diener ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Model Verification ◽  
Vaccine Uptake ◽  
Pharmaceutical Intervention ◽  
Doctor Visits ◽  
Hospital Beds ◽  
Canadian Provinces ◽  
Cascade Effects ◽  
Vaccination Campaigns

AbstractOne of the driving concerns during any epidemic is the strain on the healthcare system. As we have seen many times over the globe with the COVID-19 pandemic, hospitals and ICUs can quickly become overwhelmed by cases. While strict periods of public health mitigation have certainly helped decrease incidence and thus healthcare demand, vaccination is the only clear long-term solution. In this paper, we develop a two-module model to forecast the effects of relaxation of non-pharmaceutical intervention and vaccine uptake on daily incidence, and the cascade effects on healthcare demand. The first module is a simple epidemiological model which incorporates non-pharmaceutical intervention, the relaxation of such measures and vaccination campaigns to predict caseloads into the the Fall of 2021. This module is then fed into a healthcare module which can forecast the number of doctor visits, the number of occupied hospital beds, number of occupied ICU beds and any excess demand of these. From this module we can also estimate the length of stay of individuals in ICU. For model verification and forecasting, we use the four most populous Canadian provinces as a case study.

scholarly journals Canada as a Case Study for Balanced Presentation to Address Controversy on Emission Reduction Policies

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 7909
Author(s):  
Robert V. Parsons
Keyword(s):  
Emission Reduction ◽  
Environmental Issues ◽  
Trade Show ◽  
Quantitative Metrics ◽  
Carbon Taxation ◽  
Canadian Provinces ◽  
Method Analysis ◽  
A Current

Controversy is common on environmental issues, with carbon taxation in Canada a current example. This paper uses Canada as a case study for analysis based around balanced presentation, a technique developed some time ago, yet largely forgotten. Using the method, analysis is shifted away from the point of controversy to a broader quantitative question, with comparative data employed from official government sources. Simple quantitative analysis is applied to evaluate emission trends of individual Canadian provinces, with quantitative metrics to identify and confirm the application of relevant emission reduction policies by individual jurisdictions. From 2005 through 2019, three provinces show consistent downward emission trends, two show consistent upward trends, and the remaining five have no trends, showing relatively “flat” profiles. The results clarify, in terms of diverse emission reduction policies, where successes have occurred, and where deficiencies or ambiguities have existed. Neither carbon taxation nor related cap-and-trade show any association with long-term reductions in overall emissions. One policy does stand out as being associated with long-term reductions, namely grid decarbonization. The results suggest a possible need within Canada to rethink emission reduction policies. The method may be relevant as a model for other countries to consider as well.

scholarly journals Relaxing restrictions at the pace of vaccination increases freedom and guards against further COVID-19 waves

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (9) ◽  
pp. e1009288
Author(s):  
Simon Bauer ◽  
Sebastian Contreras ◽  
Jonas Dehning ◽  
Matthias Linden ◽  
Emil Iftekhar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Vaccine Uptake ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Mortality And Morbidity ◽  
Viral Spread ◽  
School Settings ◽  
Age Dependent ◽  
Vaccination Campaigns ◽  
Roll Out

Mass vaccination offers a promising exit strategy for the COVID-19 pandemic. However, as vaccination progresses, demands to lift restrictions increase, despite most of the population remaining susceptible. Using our age-stratified SEIRD-ICU compartmental model and curated epidemiological and vaccination data, we quantified the rate (relative to vaccination progress) at which countries can lift non-pharmaceutical interventions without overwhelming their healthcare systems. We analyzed scenarios ranging from immediately lifting restrictions (accepting high mortality and morbidity) to reducing case numbers to a level where test-trace-and-isolate (TTI) programs efficiently compensate for local spreading events. In general, the age-dependent vaccination roll-out implies a transient decrease of more than ten years in the average age of ICU patients and deceased. The pace of vaccination determines the speed of lifting restrictions; Taking the European Union (EU) as an example case, all considered scenarios allow for steadily increasing contacts starting in May 2021 and relaxing most restrictions by autumn 2021. Throughout summer 2021, only mild contact restrictions will remain necessary. However, only high vaccine uptake can prevent further severe waves. Across EU countries, seroprevalence impacts the long-term success of vaccination campaigns more strongly than age demographics. In addition, we highlight the need for preventive measures to reduce contagion in school settings throughout the year 2021, where children might be drivers of contagion because of them remaining susceptible. Strategies that maintain low case numbers, instead of high ones, reduce infections and deaths by factors of eleven and five, respectively. In general, policies with low case numbers significantly benefit from vaccination, as the overall reduction in susceptibility will further diminish viral spread. Keeping case numbers low is the safest long-term strategy because it considerably reduces mortality and morbidity and offers better preparedness against emerging escape or more contagious virus variants while still allowing for higher contact numbers (freedom) with progressing vaccinations.

Caregivers' Perceptions of Speech-Language Pathologist Talk About Child Language and Literacy Disorders

2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (4) ◽  
pp. 2049-2067
Author(s):  
Karmen L. Porter ◽  
Janna B. Oetting ◽  
Loretta Pecchioni
Keyword(s):  
Language And Literacy ◽  
Collective Case Study ◽  
Study Approach ◽  
School Aged Children ◽  
Speech Language Pathologist ◽  
Therapy Goals ◽  
Semistructured Interviews ◽  
Types Of Information

Purpose This study examined caregiver perceptions of their child's language and literacy disorder as influenced by communications with their speech-language pathologist. Method The participants were 12 caregivers of 10 school-aged children with language and literacy disorders. Employing qualitative methods, a collective case study approach was utilized in which the caregiver(s) of each child represented one case. The data came from semistructured interviews, codes emerged directly from the caregivers' responses during the interviews, and multiple coding passes using ATLAS.ti software were made until themes were evident. These themes were then further validated by conducting clinical file reviews and follow-up interviews with the caregivers. Results Caregivers' comments focused on the types of information received or not received, as well as the clarity of the information. This included information regarding their child's diagnosis, the long-term consequences of their child's disorder, and the connection between language and reading. Although caregivers were adept at describing their child's difficulties and therapy goals/objectives, their comments indicated that they struggled to understand their child's disorder in a way that was meaningful to them and their child. Conclusions The findings showed the value caregivers place on receiving clear and timely diagnostic information, as well as the complexity associated with caregivers' understanding of language and literacy disorders. The findings are discussed in terms of changes that could be made in clinical practice to better support children with language and literacy disorders and their families.

Interrelationships between municipal spatial policy strategy and airport operation and development. Lodz Airport case study

2018 ◽  
Vol 59 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-79
Author(s):  
Katarzyna Nikorowicz-Zatorska
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Urban Planning ◽  
Cultural Development ◽  
The Other ◽  
Local Authorities ◽  
Spatial Management ◽  
The One ◽  
Surrounding Areas

Abstract The present paper focuses on spatial management regulations in order to carry out investment in the field of airport facilities. The construction, upgrades, and maintenance of airports falls within the area of responsibility of local authorities. This task poses a great challenge in terms of organisation and finances. On the one hand, an active airport is a municipal landmark and drives local economic, social and cultural development, and on the other, the scale of investment often exceeds the capabilities of local authorities. The immediate environment of the airport determines its final use and prosperity. The objective of the paper is to review legislation that affects airports and the surrounding communities. The process of urban planning in Lodz and surrounding areas will be presented as a background to the problem of land use management in the vicinity of the airport. This paper seeks to address the following questions: if and how airports have affected urban planning in Lodz, does the land use around the airport prevent the development of Lodz Airport, and how has the situation changed over the time? It can be assumed that as a result of lack of experience, land resources and size of investments on one hand and legislative dissonance and peculiar practices on the other, aviation infrastructure in Lodz is designed to meet temporary needs and is characterised by achieving short-term goals. Cyclical problems are solved in an intermittent manner and involve all the municipal resources, so there’s little left to secure long-term investments.

Investigation of a New Approach to Predict Water Quality Extremes with a Case Study of Chemical Determinands in Stream Water

1991 ◽  
Vol 24 (6) ◽  
pp. 25-33
Author(s):  
A. J. Jakeman ◽  
P. G. Whitehead ◽  
A. Robson ◽  
J. A. Taylor ◽  
J. Bai
Keyword(s):  
Water Quality ◽  
Stream Water ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Hybrid Modelling ◽  
Trend Model ◽  
Environmental Extremes ◽  
Modelling Approach

The paper illustrates analysis of the assumptions of the statistical component of a hybrid modelling approach for predicting environmental extremes. This shows how to assess the applicability of the approach to water quality problems. The analysis involves data on stream acidity from the Birkenes catchment in Norway. The modelling approach is hybrid in that it uses: (1) a deterministic or process-based description to simulate (non-stationary) long term trend values of environmental variables, and (2) probability distributions which are superimposed on the trend values to characterise the frequency of shorter term concentrations. This permits assessment of management strategies and of sensitivity to climate variables by adjusting the values of major forcing variables in the trend model. Knowledge of the variability about the trend is provided by: (a) identification of an appropriate parametric form of the probability density function (pdf) of the environmental attribute (e.g. stream acidity variables) whose extremes are of interest, and (b) estimation of pdf parameters using the output of the trend model.

A Profile of Wine Tourism Entrepreneurs: Study in Portugal

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-39
Author(s):  
Adriana Backx Noronha Viana ◽  
Luísa Cagica Carvalho ◽  
Inna Sousa Paiva
Keyword(s):  
Qualitative Data ◽  
Qualitative Case Study ◽  
Innovation Capability ◽  
Critical Perspective ◽  
Case Study Methodology ◽  
Wine Tourism ◽  
Learning Capacity ◽  
Study Methodology

Background: Wine tourism is one of the tourism components adopted as part of Portugal’s strategy due to its eminence as a wine producer. Such strategy has received great prominence in recent years and aims to promote regional development from an economic, social, cultural and environmental perspective. The aim of this study was to understand the entrepreneur profile in this sector. Methods: The study uses a qualitative, case study methodology with data analysis and triangulation. In this study, a literature review of scientific studies was carried out on the scientific knowledge in the area of study from a critical perspective and an interview was conducted where qualitative data were collected. Results and Discussion: The entrepreneurs have shown the following characteristics: initiative, innovation capability, optimism, creativity, creative energy, tenacity, selfconfidence, capability for long term involvement with the project, and learning capacity. Conclusion: The study shows that most entrepreneurs state that they have established partnerships with other companies, particularly with restaurants, catering businesses, hotel units, tourism companies and companies that organize tours. This is one of the factors of economic importance recognized by another study which enables increased prominence of the company and widens the value of wine tourism.

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