scholarly journals Relaxing restrictions at the pace of vaccination increases freedom and guards against further COVID-19 waves

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (9) ◽  
pp. e1009288
Author(s):  
Simon Bauer ◽  
Sebastian Contreras ◽  
Jonas Dehning ◽  
Matthias Linden ◽  
Emil Iftekhar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Vaccine Uptake ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Mortality And Morbidity ◽  
Viral Spread ◽  
School Settings ◽  
Age Dependent ◽  
Vaccination Campaigns ◽  
Roll Out

Mass vaccination offers a promising exit strategy for the COVID-19 pandemic. However, as vaccination progresses, demands to lift restrictions increase, despite most of the population remaining susceptible. Using our age-stratified SEIRD-ICU compartmental model and curated epidemiological and vaccination data, we quantified the rate (relative to vaccination progress) at which countries can lift non-pharmaceutical interventions without overwhelming their healthcare systems. We analyzed scenarios ranging from immediately lifting restrictions (accepting high mortality and morbidity) to reducing case numbers to a level where test-trace-and-isolate (TTI) programs efficiently compensate for local spreading events. In general, the age-dependent vaccination roll-out implies a transient decrease of more than ten years in the average age of ICU patients and deceased. The pace of vaccination determines the speed of lifting restrictions; Taking the European Union (EU) as an example case, all considered scenarios allow for steadily increasing contacts starting in May 2021 and relaxing most restrictions by autumn 2021. Throughout summer 2021, only mild contact restrictions will remain necessary. However, only high vaccine uptake can prevent further severe waves. Across EU countries, seroprevalence impacts the long-term success of vaccination campaigns more strongly than age demographics. In addition, we highlight the need for preventive measures to reduce contagion in school settings throughout the year 2021, where children might be drivers of contagion because of them remaining susceptible. Strategies that maintain low case numbers, instead of high ones, reduce infections and deaths by factors of eleven and five, respectively. In general, policies with low case numbers significantly benefit from vaccination, as the overall reduction in susceptibility will further diminish viral spread. Keeping case numbers low is the safest long-term strategy because it considerably reduces mortality and morbidity and offers better preparedness against emerging escape or more contagious virus variants while still allowing for higher contact numbers (freedom) with progressing vaccinations.

scholarly journals Real-Time Digital Contact Tracing: Development of a System to Control COVID-19 Outbreaks in Nursing Homes and Long-Term Care Facilities

10.2196/20828 ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. e20828 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerald Wilmink ◽  
Ilyssa Summer ◽  
David Marsyla ◽  
Subhashree Sukhu ◽  
Jeffrey Grote ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Nursing Homes ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Long Term Care ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Term Care ◽  
Viral Spread ◽  
Effective Manner ◽  
Conventional Methods ◽  
The Impact

Background Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) can spread rapidly in nursing homes and long-term care (LTC) facilities. Symptoms-based screening and manual contact tracing have limitations that render them ineffective for containing the viral spread in LTC facilities. Symptoms-based screening alone cannot identify asymptomatic people who are infected, and the viral spread is too fast in confined living quarters to be contained by slow manual contact tracing processes. Objective We describe the development of a digital contact tracing system that LTC facilities can use to rapidly identify and contain asymptomatic and symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infected contacts. A compartmental model was also developed to simulate disease transmission dynamics and to assess system performance versus conventional methods. Methods We developed a compartmental model parameterized specifically to assess the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) transmission in LTC facilities. The model was used to quantify the impact of asymptomatic transmission and to assess the performance of several intervention groups to control outbreaks: no intervention, symptom mapping, polymerase chain reaction testing, and manual and digital contact tracing. Results Our digital contact tracing system allows users to rapidly identify and then isolate close contacts, store and track infection data in a respiratory line listing tool, and identify contaminated rooms. Our simulation results indicate that the speed and efficiency of digital contact tracing contributed to superior control performance, yielding up to 52% fewer cases than conventional methods. Conclusions Digital contact tracing systems show promise as an effective tool to control COVID-19 outbreaks in LTC facilities. As facilities prepare to relax restrictions and reopen to outside visitors, such tools will allow them to do so in a surgical, cost-effective manner that controls outbreaks while safely giving residents back the life they once had before this pandemic hit.

scholarly journals Real-Time Digital Contact Tracing: Development of a System to Control COVID-19 Outbreaks in Nursing Homes and Long-Term Care Facilities (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerald Wilmink ◽  
Ilyssa Summer ◽  
David Marsyla ◽  
Subhashree Sukhu ◽  
Jeffrey Grote ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Nursing Homes ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Long Term Care ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Term Care ◽  
Viral Spread ◽  
Effective Manner ◽  
Conventional Methods ◽  
The Impact

BACKGROUND Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) can spread rapidly in nursing homes and long-term care (LTC) facilities. Symptoms-based screening and manual contact tracing have limitations that render them ineffective for containing the viral spread in LTC facilities. Symptoms-based screening alone cannot identify asymptomatic people who are infected, and the viral spread is too fast in confined living quarters to be contained by slow manual contact tracing processes. OBJECTIVE We describe the development of a digital contact tracing system that LTC facilities can use to rapidly identify and contain asymptomatic and symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infected contacts. A compartmental model was also developed to simulate disease transmission dynamics and to assess system performance versus conventional methods. METHODS We developed a compartmental model parameterized specifically to assess the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) transmission in LTC facilities. The model was used to quantify the impact of asymptomatic transmission and to assess the performance of several intervention groups to control outbreaks: no intervention, symptom mapping, polymerase chain reaction testing, and manual and digital contact tracing. RESULTS Our digital contact tracing system allows users to rapidly identify and then isolate close contacts, store and track infection data in a respiratory line listing tool, and identify contaminated rooms. Our simulation results indicate that the speed and efficiency of digital contact tracing contributed to superior control performance, yielding up to 52% fewer cases than conventional methods. CONCLUSIONS Digital contact tracing systems show promise as an effective tool to control COVID-19 outbreaks in LTC facilities. As facilities prepare to relax restrictions and reopen to outside visitors, such tools will allow them to do so in a surgical, cost-effective manner that controls outbreaks while safely giving residents back the life they once had before this pandemic hit.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Vaccination and Healthcare Demand

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew I. Betti ◽  
Amira Hassan Abouleish ◽  
Victoria Spofford ◽  
Cory Peddigrew ◽  
Alan Diener ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Model Verification ◽  
Vaccine Uptake ◽  
Pharmaceutical Intervention ◽  
Doctor Visits ◽  
Hospital Beds ◽  
Canadian Provinces ◽  
Cascade Effects ◽  
Vaccination Campaigns

AbstractOne of the driving concerns during any epidemic is the strain on the healthcare system. As we have seen many times over the globe with the COVID-19 pandemic, hospitals and ICUs can quickly become overwhelmed by cases. While strict periods of public health mitigation have certainly helped decrease incidence and thus healthcare demand, vaccination is the only clear long-term solution. In this paper, we develop a two-module model to forecast the effects of relaxation of non-pharmaceutical intervention and vaccine uptake on daily incidence, and the cascade effects on healthcare demand. The first module is a simple epidemiological model which incorporates non-pharmaceutical intervention, the relaxation of such measures and vaccination campaigns to predict caseloads into the the Fall of 2021. This module is then fed into a healthcare module which can forecast the number of doctor visits, the number of occupied hospital beds, number of occupied ICU beds and any excess demand of these. From this module we can also estimate the length of stay of individuals in ICU. For model verification and forecasting, we use the four most populous Canadian provinces as a case study.

Defining the Competence of Psychologists with a View to Public Accountability *

1997 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 293-300 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ype H. Poortinga ◽  
Ingrid Lunt
Keyword(s):  
Scientific Knowledge ◽  
Professional Training ◽  
Professional Competence ◽  
Codes Of Ethics ◽  
The Body ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Rigorous Evaluation ◽  
Judicial Proceedings ◽  
Psychological Knowledge

In national codes of ethics the practice of psychology is presented as rooted in scientific knowledge, professional skills, and experience. However, it is not self-evident that the body of scientific knowledge in psychology provides an adequate basis for current professional practice. Professional training and experience are seen as necessary for the application of psychological knowledge, but they appear insufficient to defend the soundness of one's practices when challenged in judicial proceedings of a kind that may be faced by psychologists in the European Union in the not too distant future. In seeking to define the basis for the professional competence of psychologists, this article recommends taking a position of modesty concerning the scope and effectiveness of psychological interventions. In many circumstances, psychologists can only provide partial advice, narrowing down the range of possible courses of action more by eliminating unpromising ones than by pointing out the most correct or most favorable one. By emphasizing rigorous evaluation, the profession should gain in accountability and, in the long term, in respectability.

European Integration

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johann P. Arnason
Keyword(s):  
European Integration ◽  
Eastern European ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Historical Processes ◽  
History Of ◽  
External Conditions ◽  
Eastern European Countries ◽  
Totalitarian Regimes ◽  
The Eu

Different understandings of European integration, its background and present problems are represented in this book, but they share an emphasis on historical processes, geopolitical dynamics and regional diversity. The introduction surveys approaches to the question of European continuities and discontinuities, before going on to an overview of chapters. The following three contributions deal with long-term perspectives, including the question of Europe as a civilisational entity, the civilisational crisis of the twentieth century, marked by wars and totalitarian regimes, and a comparison of the European Union with the Habsburg Empire, with particular emphasis on similar crisis symptoms. The next three chapters discuss various aspects and contexts of the present crisis. Reflections on the Brexit controversy throw light on a longer history of intra-Union rivalry, enduring disputes and changing external conditions. An analysis of efforts to strengthen the EU’s legal and constitutional framework, and of resistances to them, highlights the unfinished agenda of integration. A closer look at the much-disputed Islamic presence in Europe suggests that an interdependent radicalization of Islamism and the European extreme right is a major factor in current political developments. Three concluding chapters adopt specific regional perspectives. Central and Eastern European countries, especially Poland, are following a path that leads to conflicts with dominant orientations of the EU, but this also raises questions about Europe’s future. The record of Scandinavian policies in relation to Europe exemplifies more general problems faced by peripheral regions. Finally, growing dissonances and divergences within the EU may strengthen the case for Eurasian perspectives.

Library and Museum Collections Digitization Projects in Finland

2009 ◽  
pp. 95-100
Author(s):  
Yulia S. Chechikova
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Cultural Heritage ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Museum Collections ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Scientific Heritage

Digitization of a national cultural and scientific heritage is one of the long-term strategic problems of the European countries’ governments. Member countries of the European Union make major efforts in providing access to their cultural heritage. In the article the process of an access provision is described for Finland.

COVID - 19 AND THE PROBLEM OF PERSONALITY

2020 ◽  
pp. 31-35
Author(s):  
Mazaeva N.A. ◽  
Golovina A.G.
Keyword(s):  
General Population ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Personal Transformation ◽  
Personality Changes ◽  
Age Dependent

In order to determine possible trends in the dynamics and characterological structure of personality in the General population caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, which is a long-term strong stressful effect and clinically and psychopathologically comparable to chronic personality changes after experiencing a disaster, the conditions predisposing to personal transformation, including clinical and prognostic patterns, are analyzed. The age-dependent nature of these changes is shown, and a number of features identified for different age groups are discussed.

scholarly journals Defence Medical Rehabilitation Centre (DMRC) COVID-19 Recovery Service

2021 ◽  
pp. e001681
Author(s):  
Oliver O'Sullivan ◽  
R Barker-Davies ◽  
R Chamley ◽  
E Sellon ◽  
D Jenkins ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Occupational Medicine ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Acute Illness ◽  
Medical Rehabilitation ◽  
Rehabilitation Centre ◽  
Operational Effectiveness ◽  
Mortality And Morbidity ◽  
Recovery Service ◽  
Significant Mortality

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) causes significant mortality and morbidity, with an unknown impact in the medium to long term. Evidence from previous coronavirus epidemics indicates that there is likely to be a substantial burden of disease, potentially even in those with a mild acute illness. The clinical and occupational effects of COVID-19 are likely to impact on the operational effectiveness of the Armed Forces. Collaboration between Defence Primary Healthcare, Defence Secondary Healthcare, Defence Rehabilitation and Defence Occupational Medicine resulted in the Defence Medical Rehabilitation Centre COVID-19 Recovery Service (DCRS). This integrated clinical and occupational pathway uses cardiopulmonary assessment as a cornerstone to identify, diagnose and manage post-COVID-19 pathology.

scholarly journals Prostate cancer and the human papilloma virus: causative association, role of vaccines, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naomi Morka ◽  
Joseph M. Norris ◽  
Mark Emberton ◽  
Daniel Kelly
Keyword(s):  
Prostate Cancer ◽  
Human Papilloma Virus ◽  
Hpv Vaccination ◽  
Significant Proportion ◽  
Vaccine Uptake ◽  
Papilloma Virus ◽  
Vaccination Campaigns ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Hpv Vaccine Uptake

AbstractProstate cancer affects a significant proportion of men worldwide. Evidence from genetic and clinical studies suggests that there may be a causal association between prostate cancer and the human papilloma virus (HPV). As HPV is a vaccine-preventable pathogen, the possibility of a role in prostate cancer causation may reinforce the importance of effective HPV vaccination campaigns. This is of particular relevance in light of the COVID-19 pandemic, which may have considerable effects on HPV vaccine uptake and distribution.

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