scholarly journals A modeling of a Diphtheria epidemic in the refugees camps

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
María Torrea ◽  
José Luis Torrea ◽  
Daniel Ortega
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Soviet Union ◽  
Vaccine Coverage ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Epidemic Outbreak ◽  
High Coverage ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Vaccination Rates ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
The Soviet Union

AbstractBackgroundDiphtheria has a big mortality rate. Vaccination practically eradicated it in industrialized countries. A decrease in vaccine coverage and public health deterioration cause a reemergence in the Soviet Union in 1990. These circumstances seem to be being reproduced in refugee camps with a potential risk of new outbreak.MethodsWe constructed a mathematical model that describes the evolution of the Soviet Union epidemic outbreak. We use it to evaluate how the epidemic would be modified by changing the rate of vaccination, and improving public health conditions.ResultsWe observe that a small decrease of 15% in vaccine coverage, translates an ascent of 47% in infected people. A coverage increase of 15% and 25% decreases a 44% and 66% respectively of infected people. Just improving health care measures a 5%, infected people decreases a 11.31%. Combining high coverage with public health measures produces a bigger reduction in the amount of infected people compare to amelioration of coverage rate or health measures alone.ConclusionsOur model estimates the evolution of a diphtheria epidemic outbreak. Small increases in vaccination rates and in public health measures can translate into large differences in the evolution of a possible epidemic. These estimates can be helpful in socioeconomic instability, to prevent and control a disease spread.

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal patterns and progression of the Delta variant of COVID-19 and their health intervention linkages in Southeast Asia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Luo ◽  
Zhaoyin Liu ◽  
Yuxuan Zhou ◽  
Yumin Zhao ◽  
Yunyue Elita Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Southeast Asia ◽  
Spatiotemporal Analysis ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Epidemic Dynamics ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Public Health Strategies ◽  
Time Scan

The global pandemic of COVID-19 presented an unprecedented challenge to all countries in the world, among which Southeast Asia (SEA) countries managed to maintain and mitigate the first wave of COVID-19 in 2020. However, these countries were caught in the crisis after the Delta variant was introduced to SEA, though many countries had immediately implemented non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) measures along with vaccination in order to contain the disease spread. To investigate the potential linkages between epidemic dynamics and public health interventions, we adopted a prospective space-time scan method to conduct spatiotemporal analysis at the district level in the seven selected countries in SEA from June 2021 to October 2021. Results reveal the spatial and temporal propagation and progression of COVID-19 risks relative to public health measures implemented by different countries. Our research benefits continuous improvements of public health strategies in preventing and containing this pandemic.

scholarly journals Improving the accuracy of ACIR data and increasing vaccination rates

2019 ◽  
Vol 43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thaïs A Miles ◽  
Linda V Granger ◽  
Colleen L Gately
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Quality Improvement ◽  
Vaccine Coverage ◽  
Health Unit ◽  
Quality Improvement Activity ◽  
Childhood Immunisation ◽  
Central Coast ◽  
Vaccine Preventable Diseases ◽  
Vaccination Rates

Immunisation at the earliest appropriate age and high levels of vaccine coverage at milestone ages are important in preventing the spread of vaccine-preventable diseases. At the Central Coast Public Health Unit, the authors sought to determine if follow-up of children said by the Australian Childhood Immunisation Register (ACIR) to be overdue for vaccination improved both of these factors. In a quality improvement activity, monthly ACIR lists of overdue Central Coast children aged 9 to 10 months of age were examined. The study alternated three months of intervention with three months of no intervention. The intervention was designed to find evidence of vaccination, first from the last known provider, and then if this was unsuccessful, from the parent. If no information was available, a letter was sent to the parents. If the child was indeed vaccinated, the register was updated. If the child was missing any vaccinations, the parent(s) were encouraged to complete the schedule. On reviewing routinely-published quarterly ACIR data at three-monthly intervals for 24 months after the intervention (or non-intervention), timeliness of vaccination improved in the intervention cohort. Central Coast fully vaccinated rates diverged from NSW rates during the study. In addition, the ACIR quarters that contained two out of three months of intervention rather than one out of three months of intervention had the highest rates of fully vaccinated children. The authors concluded that the intervention improved both timeliness of vaccination and the proportion of fully vaccinated children.

scholarly journals A New Era of Epidemiology: Digital Epidemiology for Investigating the COVID-19 Outbreak in China

10.2196/21685 ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (9) ◽  
pp. e21685
Author(s):  
Zonglin He ◽  
Casper J P Zhang ◽  
Jian Huang ◽  
Jingyan Zhai ◽  
Shuang Zhou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Information And Communication Technologies ◽  
Ethical Issues ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Face Mask ◽  
Digital Data ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Digital Epidemiology

A novel pneumonia-like coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused by a novel coronavirus named SARS-CoV-2 has swept across China and the world. Public health measures that were effective in previous infection outbreaks (eg, wearing a face mask, quarantining) were implemented in this outbreak. Available multidimensional social network data that take advantage of the recent rapid development of information and communication technologies allow for an exploration of disease spread and control via a modernized epidemiological approach. By using spatiotemporal data and real-time information, we can provide more accurate estimates of disease spread patterns related to human activities and enable more efficient responses to the outbreak. Two real cases during the COVID-19 outbreak demonstrated the application of emerging technologies and digital data in monitoring human movements related to disease spread. Although the ethical issues related to using digital epidemiology are still under debate, the cases reported in this article may enable the identification of more effective public health measures, as well as future applications of such digitally directed epidemiological approaches in controlling infectious disease outbreaks, which offer an alternative and modern outlook on addressing the long-standing challenges in population health.

scholarly journals The Infection Rate of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hui-Qi Qu ◽  
Zhangkai J. Cheng ◽  
Zhifeng Duan ◽  
Lifeng Tian ◽  
Hakon Hakonarson
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Policy ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Infection Rate ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Policy And Practice ◽  
Wuhan City ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
New Findings

Summary BoxWhat is already known about this subject?The Wuhan city in China had a much higher mortality rate (Feb 10th statistics: 748 death/18,454 diagnosis =4.05%; Apr 24th statistics: 3,869 death/50,333 diagnosis=7.69%) than the rest of China.What are the new findings?Based on our analysis, the number of infected people in Wuhan is estimated to be 143,000 (88,000 to 242,000) in late January and early February, significantly higher than the published number of diagnosed cases.What are the recommendations for policy and practice?Increased awareness of the original infection rates in Wuhan, China is critically important for proper public health measures at all levels, as well as to eliminate panic caused by overestimated mortality rate that may bias health policy actions by the authorities

scholarly journals A New Era of Epidemiology: Digital Epidemiology for Investigating the COVID-19 Outbreak in China (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zonglin He ◽  
Casper J P Zhang ◽  
Jian Huang ◽  
Jingyan Zhai ◽  
Shuang Zhou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Information And Communication Technologies ◽  
Ethical Issues ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Face Mask ◽  
Digital Data ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Digital Epidemiology

UNSTRUCTURED A novel pneumonia-like coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused by a novel coronavirus named SARS-CoV-2 has swept across China and the world. Public health measures that were effective in previous infection outbreaks (eg, wearing a face mask, quarantining) were implemented in this outbreak. Available multidimensional social network data that take advantage of the recent rapid development of information and communication technologies allow for an exploration of disease spread and control via a modernized epidemiological approach. By using spatiotemporal data and real-time information, we can provide more accurate estimates of disease spread patterns related to human activities and enable more efficient responses to the outbreak. Two real cases during the COVID-19 outbreak demonstrated the application of emerging technologies and digital data in monitoring human movements related to disease spread. Although the ethical issues related to using digital epidemiology are still under debate, the cases reported in this article may enable the identification of more effective public health measures, as well as future applications of such digitally directed epidemiological approaches in controlling infectious disease outbreaks, which offer an alternative and modern outlook on addressing the long-standing challenges in population health.

scholarly journals Towards a quantitative model of epidemics during conflicts

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Soumya Banerjee
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Integrated Approach ◽  
Quantitative Model ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Mathematical Framework ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Conflict Zone ◽  
Socio Economic Development

Epidemics may both contribute to and arise as a result of conflict. The effects of conflict on infectious diseases are complex and there have been confounding observations of both increase and decrease in disease outbreaks during and after conflicts. However there is no unified mathematical model that explains all these counter-intuitive observations. There is an urgent need for a quantitative framework for modelling conflicts and epidemics. We introduce a set of mathematical models to understand the role of conflicts in epidemics. Our mathematical framework has the potential to explain the counterintuitive observations and the complex role of human conflicts in epidemics. Our work suggests that aid and peacekeeping organizations should take an integrated approach that combines public health measures, socio-economic development, and peacekeeping in the conflict zone. Our approach exemplifies the role of non-linear thinking in complex systems like human societies. We view our work as a step towards a quantitative model of disease spread in conflicts.

scholarly journals Individually Optimal Choices can be Collectively Disastrous in COVID-19 Disease Control

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Madison Stoddard ◽  
Debra Van Egeren ◽  
Kaitlyn Johnson ◽  
Smriti Rao ◽  
Josh Furgeson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Disease Control ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Complete Suppression ◽  
Natural Immunity ◽  
Endemic Disease ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background: The word ‘pandemic’ conjures dystopian images of bodies stacked in the streets and societies on the brink of collapse. Despite this frightening picture, denialism and noncompliance with public health measures are common in the historical record, for example during the 1918 Influenza pandemic or the 2015 Ebola epidemic. The unique characteristics of SARS-CoV-2—its high basic reproduction number (R0), time-limited natural immunity and considerable potential for asymptomatic spread—exacerbate the public health repercussions of noncompliance with interventions (such as vaccines and masks) to limit disease transmission. Our work explores the rationality and impact of noncompliance with COVID-19 disease control measures. Methods: In this work, we used game theory to explore when noncompliance confers a perceived benefit to individuals. We then used epidemiological modeling to predict the impact of noncompliance on control of COVID-19, demonstrating that the presence of a noncompliant subpopulation prevents suppression of disease spread. Results: Our modeling demonstrating that noncompliance is a Nash equilibrium under a broad set of conditions, and that the existence of a noncompliant population can result in extensive endemic disease in the long-term after a return to pre-pandemic social and economic activity. Endemic disease poses a threat for both compliant and noncompliant individuals; all community members are protected if complete suppression is achieved, which is only possible with a high degree of compliance. For interventions that are highly effective at preventing disease spread, however, the consequences of noncompliance are borne disproportionately by noncompliant individuals. Conclusions: In sum, our work demonstrates the limits of free-market approaches to compliance with disease control measures during a pandemic. The act of noncompliance with disease intervention measures creates a negative externality, rendering COVID-19 disease control ineffective in the short term and making complete suppression impossible in the long term. Our work underscores the importance of developing effective strategies for prophylaxis through public health measures aimed at complete suppression and the need to focus on compliance at a population level.

scholarly journals The effect of COVID-19 public health measures on nationally notifiable diseases in Australia: preliminary analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy Bright ◽  
Anna-Jane Glynn-Robinson ◽  
Stacey Kane ◽  
Rose Wright ◽  
Nathan Saul
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Preliminary Analysis ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Health Seeking ◽  
Income Loss ◽  
Notifiable Diseases ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Healthcare It ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Financial Impacts

Since the introduction of COVID-19-related public health measures, notifications for most nationally notifiable diseases have declined when compared to previous years. Physical distancing, travel restrictions, and emphasis on hygiene are likely to have affected the number of expected notifications, with the greatest reductions observed among disease spread via person-to-person contact such as influenza, and among overseas-acquired infections such as dengue virus and measles. However, quantifying the magnitude of the effect of COVID-19 public health measures on communicable diseases in Australia will be difficult, due to confounding factors such as: changes in testing priorities in laboratories; diversion of resources to the COVID-19 response; changes in health-seeking behaviours; greater utilisation of telehealth practices; and financial impacts such as income loss and ability to afford healthcare. It is considered likely that these other factors will have also impacted notification numbers.

Eugenics in Russia and the Soviet Union

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nikolai Krementsov
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Soviet Union ◽  
Relative Weight ◽  
Relative Role ◽  
The Soviet Union ◽  
History Of ◽  
Soviet Russia ◽  
Local Traditions ◽  
Scholarly Attention

The history of eugenics in Russia has attracted relatively little scholarly attention. Eugenics garnered a warm reception among Russian hygienists and public health doctors. This article is concerned with the rise and fall of medical genetics in Soviet Russia and identifies three key components of eugenics. It further proceeds with the discussion of eugenics in revolutionary society and mentions that Russian eugenics' life span, institutional and disciplinary composition, patronage pattern, and research foci differed substantially from those in other countries. It discusses the relative weight of structures and historic contingencies in shaping the history of eugenics during the three distinct periods of its existence in Russia. It also mentions the relative role of international contacts and local traditions in molding Russian eugenics' institutions and activities.

Unusual case of suspected recurrent scarlet fever in a UK serviceman

2018 ◽  
Vol 164 (2) ◽  
pp. 130-131 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachel Phillips ◽  
A J Martin-Bates ◽  
R Withnall
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Scarlet Fever ◽  
Unusual Case ◽  
Streptococcal Infection ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Group A ◽  
Risk Of Disease ◽  
The Uk

The UK prevalence of scarlet fever, a Group A streptococcal infection, is increasing. We present an unusual case of suspected recurrent scarlet fever in a member of the UK Armed Forces. Treatments, occupational implication and public health measures to mitigate the risk of disease spread.

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