scholarly journals Time preferences are reliable across time-horizons and verbal vs. experiential tasks

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evgeniya Lukinova ◽  
Yuyue Wang ◽  
Steven F. Lehrer ◽  
Jeffrey C. Erlich
Keyword(s):  
Delay Discounting ◽  
Time Preference ◽  
Animal Studies ◽  
Time Preferences ◽  
Biological Mechanisms ◽  
Discount Factors ◽  
Time Horizons ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Experiential Tasks ◽  
Human Animal

AbstractIndividual differences in delay-discounting correlate with important real world outcomes, e.g. education, income, drug use, & criminality. As such, delay-discounting has been extensively studied by economists, psychologists and neuroscientists to reveal its behavioral and biological mechanisms in both human and non-human animal models. However, two major methodological differences hinder comparing results across species. Human studies present long time-horizon options verbally, whereas animal studies employ experiential cues and short delays. To bridge these divides, we developed a novel language-free experiential task inspired by animal decision-making studies. We find that subjects’ time-preferences are reliable across both verbal/experiential differences and also second/day differences. When we examined whether discount factors shifted or scaled across the tasks, we found a surprisingly strong effect of temporal context. Taken together, this indicates that subjects have a stable, but context-dependent, time-preference that can be reliably assessed using different methods; thereby, providing a foundation to bridge studies of time-preferences across species.

scholarly journals Time preferences are reliable across time-horizons and verbal versus experiential tasks

eLife ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evgeniya Lukinova ◽  
Yuyue Wang ◽  
Steven F Lehrer ◽  
Jeffrey C Erlich
Keyword(s):  
Delay Discounting ◽  
Time Preference ◽  
Animal Studies ◽  
Time Preferences ◽  
Editorial Note ◽  
Biological Mechanisms ◽  
Discount Factors ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Experiential Tasks ◽  
Human Animal

Individual differences in delay-discounting correlate with important real world outcomes, for example education, income, drug use, and criminality. As such, delay-discounting has been extensively studied by economists, psychologists and neuroscientists to reveal its behavioral and biological mechanisms in both human and non-human animal models. However, two major methodological differences hinder comparing results across species. Human studies present long time-horizon options verbally, whereas animal studies employ experiential cues and short delays. To bridge these divides, we developed a novel language-free experiential task inspired by animal decision-making studies. We found that the ranks of subjects’ time-preferences were reliable across both verbal/experiential and second/day differences. Yet, discount factors scaled dramatically across the tasks, indicating a strong effect of temporal context. Taken together, this indicates that individuals have a stable, but context-dependent, time-preference that can be reliably assessed using different methods, providing a foundation to bridge studies of time-preferences across species.Editorial note: This article has been through an editorial process in which the authors decide how to respond to the issues raised during peer review. The Reviewing Editor's assessment is that all the issues have been addressed (see <xref ref-type="decision-letter" rid="SA1">decision letter</xref>).

DISCOUNTING, RISK, AND UNCERTAINTY IN NATURAL RESOURCE DAMAGE ASSESSMENTS

2008 ◽  
Vol 2008 (1) ◽  
pp. 1157-1161
Author(s):  
Steve Hampton ◽  
Matthew Zafonte
Keyword(s):  
Time Preference ◽  
Risk And Uncertainty ◽  
Review Time ◽  
Restoration Project ◽  
Time Horizons ◽  
The Future ◽  
Scaling Methods ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Federal Guidelines ◽  
Over Time

ABSTRACT Restoration-based scaling methods, such as Habitat or Resource Equivalency Analysis (HEA or REA), quantify lost resource services from an injury and gained resource services from a restoration project into the future. In many cases, the injury and/or the restoration project are projected to last several decades or even into perpetuity. Following economic theory and federal guidelines, resources provided (or lost) in the future are discounted at some specified rate, usually 3%. This paper reviews the role and significance of discounting in restoration scaling. We review time preference, inter generational concerns, risk, and uncertainty as rationales for discounting, and examine various discounting formulations (e.g. constant and hyperbolic). We present several quantitative examples in a restoration-scaling context regarding different discounting approaches. We conclude that, while the specification of the discount rate can have a large effect on restoration scaling calculations with long time horizons, incorporation of risk and uncertainty of restoration project benefits over time can overwhelm the effect of alternative specifications of time preference.

scholarly journals DOES A DISCOUNT RATE MEASURE THE COSTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE?

2017 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 337-365 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Tarsney
Keyword(s):  
Discount Rate ◽  
Time Preference ◽  
Marginal Utility ◽  
Costs And Benefits ◽  
Social Discount Rate ◽  
Time Horizons ◽  
Rate Measure ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Diminishing Marginal Utility ◽  
Normative Considerations

Abstract:I argue that the use of a social discount rate to assess the consequences of climate policy is unhelpful and misleading. I consider two lines of justification for discounting: (i) ethical arguments for a ‘pure rate of time preference’ and (ii) economic arguments that take time as a proxy for economic growth and the diminishing marginal utility of consumption. In both cases I conclude that, given the long time horizons, distinctive uncertainties, and particular costs and benefits at stake in the climate context, discount rates are at best a poor proxy for the normative considerations they are meant to represent.

scholarly journals On the Interaction of Risk and Time Preferences: An Experimental Study

2001 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 239-253 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vital Anderhub ◽  
Werner Güth
Keyword(s):  
Negative Correlation ◽  
Time Preference ◽  
Experimental Studies ◽  
Hyperbolic Discounting ◽  
Significant Negative Correlation ◽  
Time Preferences ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Certainty Equivalents ◽  
Discount Factors ◽  
Lottery Premium

Abstract Experimental studies of risk and time preference typically focus on one of the two phenomena. The goal of this paper is to investigate the (possible) correlation between subjects' attitude to risk and their time preference. For this sake we ask 61 subjects to price a simple lottery in three different scenarios. At the first, the lottery premium is paid `now'. At the second, it is paid `later'. At the third, it is paid `even later'. By comparing the certainty equivalents offered by the subjects for the three lotteries, we test how time and risk preferences are interrelated. Since the time interval between `now' and `later' is the same as between `later' and `even later', we also test the hypothesis of hyperbolic discounting. The main result is a statistically significant negative correlation between subjects' degrees of risk aversion and their (implicit) discount factors. Moreover, we show that the negative correlation is independent of the method used to elicit certainty equivalents (willingness to pay versus willingness to accept).

scholarly journals Nonparametric Analysis of Time-Inconsistent Preferences

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Blow ◽  
Martin Browning ◽  
Ian Crawford
Keyword(s):  
Sufficient Conditions ◽  
Revealed Preference ◽  
Hyperbolic Discounting ◽  
Time Preferences ◽  
Hyperbolic Model ◽  
Nonparametric Analysis ◽  
Time Horizons ◽  
Time Inconsistent ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Necessary And Sufficient

Abstract This paper provides a revealed preference characterisation of quasi-hyperbolic discounting which is designed to be applied to readily-available expenditure surveys. We describe necessary and sufficient conditions for the leading forms of the model and also study the consequences of the restrictions on preferences popularly used in empirical lifecycle consumption models. Using data from a household consumption panel dataset we explore the prevalence of time-inconsistent behaviour. The quasi-hyperbolic model provides a significantly more successful account of behaviour than the alternatives considered. We estimate the joint distribution of time preferences and the distribution of discount functions at various time horizons.

scholarly journals The decade after tomorrow: Estimation of discount rates from realistic temporal decisions over long time horizons

2021 ◽  
Vol 183 ◽  
pp. 158-174
Author(s):  
Patrick Lloyd-Smith ◽  
Wiktor Adamowicz ◽  
Alicia Entem ◽  
Eli P. Fenichel ◽  
Mani Rouhi Rad
Keyword(s):  
Discount Rates ◽  
Time Horizons ◽  
Long Time

scholarly journals Development and Application of the Owner-Bird Relationship Scale (OBRS) to Assess the Relation of Humans to Their Pet Birds

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anne-Kathrin Burmeister ◽  
Katrin Drasch ◽  
Monika Rinder ◽  
Sebastian Prechsl ◽  
Andrea Peschel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Animal Studies ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Major Influence ◽  
Four Dimensions ◽  
Sociological Approach ◽  
Pet Birds ◽  
Human Animal ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Relationship

Only a few birds besides domestic pigeons and poultry can be described as domesticated. Therefore, keeping a pet bird can be challenging, and the human-avian relationship will have a major influence on the quality of this cohabitation. Studies that focus on characterizing the owner-bird relationship generally use adapted cat/dog scales which may not identify its specific features. Following a sociological approach, a concept of human-animal relationship was developed leading to three types of human-animal relationship (impersonal, personal, and close personal). This concept was used to develop a 21-item owner-bird-relationship scale (OBRS). This scale was applied to measure the relationship between pet bird owners (or keepers) (n = 1,444) and their birds in an online survey performed in Germany. Factor analysis revealed that the relationship between owner and bird consisted of four dimensions: the tendency of the owner to anthropomorphize the bird; the social support the bird provides for the owner; the empathy, attentiveness, and respect of the owner toward the bird; and the relationship of the bird toward the owner. More than one quarter of the German bird owners of this sample showed an impersonal, half a personal, and less than a quarter a close personal relationship to their bird. The relationship varied with the socio-demographic characteristics of the owners, such as gender, marital status, and education. This scale supports more comprehensive quantitative research into the human-bird relationship in the broad field of human-animal studies including the psychology and sociology of animals as well as animal welfare and veterinary medicine.

scholarly journals Can Financial Engineering Cure Cancer?

2013 ◽  
Vol 103 (3) ◽  
pp. 406-411 ◽  
Author(s):  
David E Fagnan ◽  
Jose Maria Fernandez ◽  
Andrew W Lo ◽  
Roger M Stein
Keyword(s):  
Financial Engineering ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Capital Requirements ◽  
Debt Financing ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Time Horizons ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Private And Public ◽  
Public Equity ◽  
Highly Correlated

Traditional financing sources such as private and public equity may not be ideal for investment projects with low probabilities of success, long time horizons, and large capital requirements. Nevertheless, such projects, if not too highly correlated, may yield attractive risk-adjusted returns when combined into a single portfolio. Such “megafund” portfolios may be too large to finance through private or public equity alone. But with sufficient diversification and risk analytics, debt financing via securitization may be feasible. Credit enhancements (i.e., derivatives and government guarantees) can also improve megafund economics. We present an analytical framework and illustrative empirical examples involving cancer research.

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