Geographic shifts inAedes aegyptihabitat suitability in Ecuador using larval surveillance data and ecological niche modeling: Implications of climate change for public health vector control

AbstractArboviral disease transmission byAedesmosquitoes poses a major challenge to public health systems in Ecuador, where constraints on health services and resource allocation call for spatially informed management decisions. Employing a unique dataset of larval occurrence records provided by the Ecuadorian Ministry of Health, we used ecological niche models (ENMs) to estimate the current geographic distribution ofAedes aegyptiin Ecuador, using mosquito presence as a proxy for risk of disease transmission. ENMs built with the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Production (GARP) algorithm and a suite of environmental variables were assessed for agreement and accuracy. The top model of larval mosquito presence was projected to the year 2050 under various combinations of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and models of climate change. Under current climatic conditions, larval mosquitoes were not predicted in areas of high elevation in Ecuador, such as the Andes mountain range, as well as the eastern portion of the Amazon basin. However, all models projected to scenarios of future climate change demonstrated potential shifts in mosquito distribution, wherein range contractions were seen throughout most of eastern Ecuador, and areas of transitional elevation became suitable for mosquito presence. Encroachment ofAe. aegyptiinto mountainous terrain was estimated to affect up to 4,215 km2under the most extreme scenario of climate change, an area which would put over 12,000 people currently living in transitional areas at risk. This distributional shift into communities at higher elevations indicates an area of concern for public health agencies, as targeted interventions may be needed to protect vulnerable populations with limited prior exposure to mosquito-borne diseases. Ultimately, the results of this study serve as a tool for informing public health policy and mosquito abatement strategies in Ecuador.Author summaryThe yellow fever mosquito (Aedes aegypti) is a medically important vector of arboviral diseases in Ecuador, such as dengue fever and chikungunya. ManagingAe. aegyptiis a challenge to public health agencies in Latin America, where the use of limited resources must be planned in an efficient, targeted manner. The spatial distribution ofAe. aegyptican be used as a proxy for risk of disease exposure, guiding policy formation and decision-making. We used ecological niche models in this study to predict the range ofAe. aegyptiin Ecuador, based on agency larval mosquito surveillance records and layers of environmental predictors (e.g. climate, altitude, and human population). The best models of current range were then projected to the year 2050 under a variety of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and models of climate change. All modeled future scenarios predicted shifts in the range ofAe. aegypti, allowing us to assess human populations that may be at risk of becoming exposed toAedesvectored diseases. As climate changes, we predict that communities living in areas of transitional elevation along the Andes mountain range are vulnerable to the expansion ofAedes aegypti.

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Geographic shifts in Aedes aegypti habitat suitability in Ecuador using larval surveillance data and ecological niche modeling: Implications of climate change for public health vector control

PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases ◽

10.1371/journal.pntd.0007322 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 13 (4) ◽

pp. e0007322 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Catherine A. Lippi ◽

Anna M. Stewart-Ibarra ◽

M. E. Franklin Bajaña Loor ◽

Jose E. Dueñas Zambrano ◽

Nelson A. Espinoza Lopez ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Climate Change ◽

Aedes Aegypti ◽

Vector Control ◽

Habitat Suitability ◽

Ecological Niche ◽

Ecological Niche Modeling ◽

Niche Modeling ◽

Surveillance Data

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Future climate change will impact the size and location of breeding and wintering areas of migratory thrushes in South America

The Condor ◽

10.1093/ornithapp/duab006 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Natália Stefanini Da Silveira ◽

Maurício Humberto Vancine ◽

Alex E Jahn ◽

Marco Aurélio Pizo ◽

Thadeu Sobral-Souza

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

South America ◽

Migratory Birds ◽

Global Climate ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Ecological Niche Models ◽

Global Climate Changes ◽

The Andes ◽

Wintering Areas

Abstract Bird migration patterns are changing worldwide due to current global climate changes. Addressing the effects of such changes on the migration of birds in South America is particularly challenging because the details about how birds migrate within the Neotropics are generally not well understood. Here, we aim to infer the potential effects of future climate change on breeding and wintering areas of birds that migrate within South America by estimating the size and elevations of their future breeding and wintering areas. We used occurrence data from species distribution databases (VertNet and GBIF), published studies, and eBird for 3 thrush species (Turdidae; Turdus nigriceps, T. subalaris, and T. flavipes) that breed and winter in different regions of South America and built ecological niche models using ensemble forecasting approaches to infer current and future potential distributions throughout the breeding and wintering periods of each species. Our findings point to future shifts in wintering and breeding areas, mainly through elevational and longitudinal changes. Future breeding areas for T. nigriceps, which migrates along the Andes Mountains, will be displaced to the west, while breeding displacements to the east are expected for the other 2 species. An overall loss in the size of future wintering areas was also supported for 2 of the species, especially for T. subalaris, but an increase is anticipated for T. flavipes. Our results suggest that future climate change in South America will require that species shift their breeding and wintering areas to higher elevations in addition to changes in their latitudes and longitude. Our findings are the first to show how future climate change may affect migratory birds in South America throughout the year and suggest that even closely related migratory birds in South America will be affected in different ways, depending on the regions where they breed and overwinter.

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Evaluating alternative data sets for ecological niche models of birds in the Andes

Ecography ◽

10.1111/j.0906-7590.2004.03822.x ◽

2004 ◽

Vol 27 (3) ◽

pp. 350-360 ◽

Cited By ~ 61

Author(s):

Juan L. Parra ◽

Catherine C. Graham ◽

Juan F. Freile

Keyword(s):

Ecological Niche ◽

Data Sets ◽

Ecological Niche Models ◽

The Andes ◽

Niche Models

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Social Networks

Urban Health ◽

10.1093/oso/9780190915858.003.0026 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 248-255

Author(s):

Abby E. Rudolph

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Social Networks ◽

Disease Transmission ◽

Urban Areas ◽

Urban Environments ◽

Ample Evidence ◽

Risk Of Disease ◽

Barriers To Health ◽

Distinguishing Features

One of the distinguishing features of urban environments is the close proximity of their residents. There is ample evidence that our social networks influence how we think, feel, and behave and, through doing so, shape our health. Therefore, the challenge and opportunity for urban areas is how to foster social relationships and interactions that promote healthier behaviors, reduce the risk of disease transmission, and remove or serve as buffers against existing barriers to health service utilization. This chapter provides a theoretical framework for thinking about the role of social networks in public health and provides two examples how social network analysis has been used to better understand two major public health concerns in urban settings.

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Whole range and regional-based ecological niche models predict differing exposure to 21st century climate change in the key cool temperate rainforest tree southern beech (Nothofagus cunninghamii)

Austral Ecology ◽

10.1111/aec.12184 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 40 (2) ◽

pp. 126-138 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

James R. P. Worth ◽

Peter A. Harrison ◽

Grant J. Williamson ◽

Gregory J. Jordan

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

21St Century ◽

Ecological Niche ◽

Ecological Niche Models ◽

Temperate Rainforest ◽

Cool Temperate ◽

Southern Beech ◽

Niche Models

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Communicating Risk for a Climate-Sensitive Disease: A Case Study of Valley Fever in Central California

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph16183254 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 16 (18) ◽

pp. 3254 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Melissa Matlock ◽

Suellen Hopfer ◽

Oladele A. Ogunseitan

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Climate Change ◽

Risk Factors ◽

Health Risk ◽

Health Communication ◽

Communication Strategy ◽

Health Risk Factors ◽

Valley Fever ◽

Public Health Agencies ◽

Health Agencies

Valley Fever, or Coccidioidomycosis, a fungal respiratory disease, is prevalent with increasing incidence in the Southwestern United States, especially in the central region of California. Public health agencies in the region do not have a consistent strategy for communication and health promotion targeting vulnerable communities about this climate-sensitive disease. We used the behavior adaptation communication model to design and conduct semi-structured interviews with representatives of public health agencies in five California counties: Fresno, Kern, Kings, San Luis Obispo, and Tulare County. While none of the agencies currently include climate change information into their Valley Fever risk messaging, the agencies discuss future communication methods similar to other health risk factors such as poor air quality days and influenza virus season. For political reasons, some public health agencies deliberately avoided the use of climate change language in communicating health risk factors to farmers who are particularly vulnerable to soil and dust-borne fungal spores. The effectiveness of health communication activities of the public health agencies has not been measured in reducing the prevalence of Valley Fever in impacted communities. Given the transboundary nature of climate influence on Valley Fever risk, a concerted and consistent health communication strategy is expected to be more effective than current practices.

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Lutzomyia vectors for cutaneous leishmaniasis in Southern Brazil: ecological niche models, predicted geographic distributions, and climate change effects

International Journal for Parasitology ◽

10.1016/s0020-7519(03)00094-8 ◽

2003 ◽

Vol 33 (9) ◽

pp. 919-931 ◽

Cited By ~ 183

Author(s):

A.Townsend Peterson ◽

Jeffrey Shaw

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Cutaneous Leishmaniasis ◽

Ecological Niche ◽

Southern Brazil ◽

Ecological Niche Models ◽

Climate Change Effects ◽

Geographic Distributions ◽

Niche Models

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Incarceration and COVID-19: Recommendations to Curb COVID-19 Disease Transmission in Prison Facilities and Surrounding Communities

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph18189790 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 18 (18) ◽

pp. 9790

Author(s):

Lauren Jeanne Natoli ◽

Kathy Linh Vu ◽

Adam Carl Sukhija-Cohen ◽

Whitney Engeran-Cordova ◽

Gabriel Maldonado ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

United States ◽

New York ◽

Racial Disparities ◽

Personal Protective Equipment ◽

Disease Transmission ◽

General Public ◽

People Of Color ◽

Protective Equipment ◽

Risk Of Disease

Overcrowding can increase the risk of disease transmission, such as that of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19), within United States prisons. The number of COVID-19 cases among prisoners is higher than that among the general public, and this disparity is further increased for prisoners of color. This report uses the example case of the COVID-19 pandemic to observe prison conditions and preventive efforts, address racial disparities for people of color, and guide structural improvements for sustaining inmate health during a pandemic in four select states: California, New York, Illinois, and Florida. To curb the further spread of COVID-19 among prisoners and their communities, safe public health practices must be implemented including providing personal protective equipment (PPE) and testing of staff and inmates, disseminating culturally and language appropriate information regarding the pandemic and preventive precautions, introducing social distancing measures, and ensuring adequate resources to safely reintegrate released prisoners into their communities.

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Detection of Fluorescent Powders and Their Effect on Survival and Recapture of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae)

Journal of Medical Entomology ◽

10.1093/jme/tjz142 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 57 (1) ◽

pp. 266-272 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Diana Rojas-Araya ◽

Barry W Alto ◽

Nathan Burkett-Cadena ◽

Derek At Cummings

Keyword(s):

Aedes Aegypti ◽

Disease Transmission ◽

Adult Survival ◽

Mosquito Vector ◽

Host Seeking ◽

Baited Traps ◽

Impact On Survival ◽

Invasive Mosquito ◽

Risk Of Disease ◽

Potential Impact

Abstract The use of insect markers, such as fluorescent powders, is a useful tool for studying ecological and epidemiological questions. Evaluating their effect on vectors of human disease agents, such as the invasive mosquito vector Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus), is crucial for their practical and reliable use, especially in parameters linked to the risk of disease transmission such as adult survival, dispersal, and host-seeking. Seven fluorescent powders (Hercules Radiant, DayGlo (DG), Risk Reactor (RR), and Angstrom Technologies), applied externally on cohorts of Ae. aegypti female mosquitoes, were tested to determine their impact on survival and recapture by baited mosquito traps, and their detectability after being exposed to controlled laboratory and semifield environments. There were no significant differences in survival among marked and unmarked females across all powders. Marked females were significantly less likely to be captured in baited traps relative to unmarked females, except for one of the DG powders. All females remained visibly marked on five parts of their body for 30 d (under both environments), except for one of the RR powders. The tested powders and application method are suitable for tracking mosquitoes throughout most of their lives under different environments, without significantly affecting their survival, but with potential impact on recapture by baited traps, possibly due to effects on senses or other physiological traits.

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