scholarly journals Replicated point processes with application to population dynamics models

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Favretti
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Point Processes ◽  
Isolation By Distance ◽  
Similarity Index ◽  
Dispersal Distance ◽  
Dispersal Kernel ◽  
Spatially Explicit ◽  
Distance Property ◽  
Population Dynamics Models ◽  
Dynamic Population

AbstractIn this paper we study spatially clustered distribution of individuals using point process theory. In particular we discuss the spatially explicit model of population dynamics of Shimatani (2010) which extend previous works on Malécot theory of isolation by distance. We reformulate Shimatani model of replicated Neyman-Scott process to allow for a general dispersal kernel function and we show that the random immigration hypothesis can be substituted by the long dispersal distance property of the kernel. Moreover, the extended framework presented here is fit to handle spatially explicit statistical estimators of genetic variability like Moran autocorrelation index, Sørensen similarity index, average kinship coefficient. We discuss the pivotal role of the choice of dispersal kernel for the above estimators in a toy model of dynamic population genetics theory.

scholarly journals Using spatial genetics to quantify mosquito dispersal for control programs

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
I Filipović ◽  
HC Hapuarachchi ◽  
WP Tien ◽  
ABAR Muhammed ◽  
C Lee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Autocorrelation ◽  
Vector Control ◽  
Field Experiments ◽  
Genetic Relatedness ◽  
Isolation By Distance ◽  
Dispersal Distance ◽  
Dispersal Kernel ◽  
Accurate Estimation ◽  
Control Programs ◽  
Spatial Genetics

AbstractBackgroundHundreds of millions of people get a mosquito-borne disease every year, of which nearly one million die. Mosquito-borne diseases are primarily controlled and mitigated through the control of mosquito vectors. Accurately quantified mosquito dispersal in a given landscape is critical for the design and optimization of the control programs, yet the field experiments that measure dispersal of mosquitoes recaptured at certain distances from the release point (mark-release-recapture MRR studies) are challenging for such small insects and often unrepresentative of the insect’s true field behavior. Using Singapore as a study site, we show how mosquito dispersal patterns can be characterized from the spatial analyses of genetic relatedness among individuals sampled over a short time span without interruption of their natural behaviors.Methods and FindingsWe captured ovipositing females of Aedes aegypti, a major arboviral disease vector, across floors of high-rise apartment blocks and genotyped them using thousands of genome-wide SNP markers. We developed a methodology that produces a dispersal kernel for distance that results from one generation of successful breeding (effective dispersal), using the distances separating full siblings, 2nd and 3rd degree relatives (close kin). In Singapore, the estimated dispersal distance kernel was exponential (Laplacian), giving the mean effective dispersal distance (and dispersal kernel spread σ) of 45.2 m (95%CI: 39.7-51.3 m), and 10% probability of dispersal >100 m (95%CI: 92-117 m). Our genetic-based estimates matched the parametrized dispersal kernels from the previously reported MRR experiments. If few close-kin are captured, a conventional genetic isolation-by-distance analysis can be used, and we show that it can produce σ estimates congruent with the close-kin method, conditioned on the accurate estimation of effective population density. We also show that genetic patch size, estimated with the spatial autocorrelation analysis, reflects the spatial extent of the dispersal kernel ‘tail’ that influences e.g. predictions of critical radii of release zones and Wolbachia wave speed in mosquito replacement programs.ConclusionsWe demonstrate that spatial genetics (the newly developed close-kin analysis, and conventional IBD and spatial autocorrelation analyses) can provide a detailed and robust characterization of mosquito dispersal that can guide operational vector control decisions. With the decreasing cost of next generation sequencing, acquisition of spatial genetic data will become increasingly accessible, and given the complexities and criticisms of conventional MRR methods, but the central role of dispersal measures in vector control programs, we recommend genetic-based dispersal characterization as the more desirable means of parameterization.

scholarly journals Spatio-temporal point processes as meta-models for population dynamics in heterogeneous landscapes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrizia Zamberletti ◽  
Julien Papaix ◽  
Edith Gabriel ◽  
Thomas Opitz
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Point Processes ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Landscape Heterogeneity ◽  
Marked Point ◽  
Local Scale ◽  
Agricultural Landscapes ◽  
Spatially Explicit ◽  
Regression Equations ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Landscape heterogeneity affects population dynamics, which determine species persistence, diversity and interactions. These relationships can be accurately represented by advanced spatially-explicit models (SEMs) allowing for high levels of detail and precision. However, such approaches are characterised by high computational complexity, high amount of data and memory requirements, and spatio-temporal outputs may be difficult to analyse. A possibility to deal with this complexity is to aggregate outputs over time or space, but then interesting information may be masked and lost, such as local spatio-temporal relationships or patterns. An alternative solution is given by meta-models and meta-analysis, where simplified mathematical relationships are used to structure and summarise the complex transformations from inputs to outputs. Here, we propose an original approach to analyse SEM outputs. By developing a meta-modelling approach based on spatio-temporal point processes (STPPs), we characterise spatio-temporal population dynamics and landscape heterogeneity relationships in agricultural contexts. A landscape generator and a spatially-explicit population model simulate hierarchically the pest-predator dynamics of codling moth and ground beetles in apple orchards over heterogeneous agricultural landscapes. Spatio-temporally explicit outputs are simplified to marked point patterns of key events, such as local proliferation or introduction events. Then, we construct and estimate regression equations for multi-type STPPs composed of event occurrence intensity and magnitudes. Results provide local insights into spatio-temporal dynamics of pest-predator systems. We are able to differentiate the contributions of different driver categories (i.e., spatio-temporal, spatial, population dynamics). We highlight changes in the effects on occurrence intensity and magnitude when considering drivers at global or local scale. This approach leads to novel findings in agroecology where the organisation of cultivated fields and semi-natural elements are known to play a crucial role for pest regulation. It aids to formulate guidelines for biological control strategies at global and local scale.

Nonlinear Population Dynamics: Models, Experiments and Data

1998 ◽  
Vol 194 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
J.M. Cushing ◽  
R.F. Costantino ◽  
Brian Dennis ◽  
R.A. Desharnais ◽  
Shandelle M. Henson
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Dynamics Models ◽  
Dynamics Models

scholarly journals Dispersal Kernel Determines Symmetry of Spread and Geographical Range for an Insect

2009 ◽  
Vol 2009 ◽  
pp. 1-4 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey D. Holland
Keyword(s):  
Sugar Maple ◽  
Spatial Dynamics ◽  
Geographic Range ◽  
Dispersal Distance ◽  
Dispersal Kernel ◽  
Geographical Range ◽  
Spatial Distributions ◽  
Longhorned Beetle ◽  
Ecological Patterns ◽  
Dispersal Distances

The distance from a source patch that dispersing insects reach depends on the number of dispersers, or random draws from a probability density function called a dispersal kernel, and the shape of that kernel. This can cause asymmetrical dispersal between habitat patches that produce different numbers of dispersers. Spatial distributions based on these dynamics can explain several ecological patterns including megapopulations and geographic range boundaries. I hypothesized that a locally extirpated longhorned beetle, the sugar maple borer, has a new geographical range shaped primarily by probabilistic dispersal distances. I used data on occurrence from Ontario, Canada to construct a model of geographical range in Indiana, USA based on maximum dispersal distance scaled by habitat area. This model predicted the new range boundary within 500 m very accurately. This beetle may be an ideal organism for exploring spatial dynamics driven by dispersal.

scholarly journals Incoherent dimensionality in fisheries management: consequences of misaligned stock assessment and population boundaries

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aaron M Berger ◽  
Jonathan J Deroba ◽  
Katelyn M Bosley ◽  
Daniel R Goethel ◽  
Brian J Langseth ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Structure ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Spatially Explicit ◽  
Spatial Simulation ◽  
Management Options ◽  
Spatially Explicit Models ◽  
Fisheries Policy ◽  
Simulation Estimation ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Dynamic Population

Abstract Fisheries policy inherently relies on an explicit definition of management boundaries that delineate the spatial extent over which stocks are assessed and regulations are implemented. However, management boundaries tend to be static and determined by politically negotiated or historically identified population (or multi-species) units, which create a potential disconnect with underlying, dynamic population structure. The consequences of incoherent management and population or stock boundaries were explored through the application of a two-area spatial simulation–estimation framework. Results highlight the importance of aligning management assessment areas with underlying population structure and processes, especially when fishing mortality is disproportionate to vulnerable biomass among management areas, demographic parameters (growth and maturity) are not homogenous within management areas, and connectivity (via recruitment or movement) unknowingly exists among management areas. Bias and risk were greater for assessments that incorrectly span multiple population segments (PSs) compared to assessments that cover a subset of a PS, and these results were exacerbated when there was connectivity between PSs. Directed studies and due consideration of critical PSs, spatially explicit models, and dynamic management options that help align management and population boundaries would likely reduce estimation biases and management risk, as would closely coordinated management that functions across population boundaries.

scholarly journals Estado Atual de Conhecimento de Dinâmica de Populações

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 256
Author(s):  
Anna Clara Balbina Silva ◽  
Afonso Pelli
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Full Text ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Structured Populations ◽  
Exclusion Criteria ◽  
Spatially Structured Populations ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Population Interactions ◽  
Dynamic Population ◽  
Critical Challenge

Compreender os mecanismos que regulam a dinâmica das populações espacialmente estruturadas é um desafio crítico para os ecólogos e gestores de conservação. A dinâmica de populações é um ramo da ecologia que estuda as populações como sistema em atividades, relacionando as influências ambientais com a distribuição e abundância dos indivíduos e suas interações com o ambiente. O presente artigo é uma revisão bibliográfica, com o objetivo de identificar produções científicas relevantes sobre dinâmica populacional. Para isso, foram utilizados periódicos revisados por pares, na base de Periódicos Capes. A pesquisa foi realizada em junho de 2019, utilizando-se as palavras-chave para título contendo: "population dynamics" e no assunto “ecology”, a partir de 2014, quando o texto completo estava disponível. Foram considerados como critérios de exclusão os artigos publicados antes de 2014. Após a leitura dos títulos dos artigos, foram selecionados 34 artigos que foram lidos na íntegra. Em livros disponíveis no acervo da biblioteca da Universidade Federal do Triângulo Mineiro, foram selecionados quatro livros no tema dinâmica populacional. O referencial teórico aborda os aspectos da dinâmica de populações, tabela de vida, formas de crescimento e interações populacionais. Ressalta-se a necessidade de novos estudos que ainda possuem lacunas, que venha complementar e contribuir para o conhecimento de organismos que faltam ou ainda não possuem registros de estudos. Palavras-chave: Taxas de Natalidade e Mortalidade. Atributos Populacionais. Dispersão. AbstractUnderstanding the mechanisms that regulate the dynamics of spatially structured populations is a critical challenge for ecologists and conservation managers. Population dynamics is a branch of ecology that studies populations as a system in activities, relating environmental influences to the individuals’ distribution and abundance and their interactions with the environment. This article is a bibliographic review, aiming to identify relevant scientific productions about population dynamics. Thus. peer-reviewed journals were used in the Capes Periodicals base, the research was conducted in June 2019, using the keywords for title containing "population dynamics" and in the subject "ecology", from 2014, when the full text was available. Exclusion criteria were: articles published before 2014, after reading the article titles, 34 articles were selected that met the initially proposed criteria and were read in full. In books available in the library collection of the Federal University of Triângulo Mineiro, with a search for the dynamic population theme, 4 books were used. The theoretical framework addresses the aspects of population dynamics, life table, forms of growth and population interactions. It is emphasized  the need for further studies that still have gaps, which will complement and contribute to the knowledge of organisms that are missing or do not have study records. Keywords: Birth and Mortality Rates. Population Attributes. Dispersion.

scholarly journals Challenging population dynamics models with new data: how accurate were our inferences?

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 008-016
Author(s):  
Verónica C. Andreo ◽  
Mauricio Lima ◽  
Jaime J. Polop ◽  
M. Cecilia Provensal
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Dynamics Models ◽  
Dynamics Models
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