Facing the fold: from the eclipse of Utopia to the restoration of hope

foresight ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 7-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jay Ogilvy
Keyword(s):  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Quantitative Evidence ◽  
Cyclical Time ◽  
The Future ◽  
Utopian Thinking ◽  
The Many ◽  
High Road ◽  
Practical Implications ◽  
Do So

PurposeThe objective of this paper is to make a case for a scenaric stance that holds high road and low road futures in mind at once. Opening with regrets about the total eclipse of Utopian thinking, the paper aims to move on to embrace both aspirational futures and a forthright recognition of the many ways in which things could go wrong. Adopting a scenaric stance amounts to a new, fourth attitude toward historical time and the future. The ancients lived in an ahistorical, cyclical time. Second, modernity embraced a progressive and optimistic approach to the future. Third, post‐modernity turns pessimistic about the future. Fourth, a new scenaric stance vindicates Utopian optimism by pairing it with a forthright recognition of pessimistic possibilities.Design/methodology/approachThis is a reflective, almost philosophical paper that articulates a new attitude toward the future, which demonstrates the significance of scenario planning for attitudes toward the future.FindingsA scenaric stance can restore the liberatory potential of Utopian thinking by yoking optimistic, aspirational futures together with a clear‐eyed recognition of the several ways that plans can misfire.Research limitations/implicationsThis is a philosophical, reflective piece that does not rely on any quantitative evidence or rigorous modeling.Practical implicationsThe practical implications are major: to the extent that the health of the economy relies on confidence and a willingness to take risks, a lemming‐like race to the bottom will result in a Japan‐like endless recession. A vindication is needed for aspirational scenarios.Social implicationsEveryone is better off when fewer people are living in crouch.Originality/valueAfter three decades of reviewing and contributing to the literature on future studies, the author has seen nothing that remotely resembles the argument of this paper. Its value consists in its potential for lifting people's sights. One stands in danger of a loss of confidence and an endless recession. One needs to restore a sense of possibility and optimism, but can do so responsibly only if one holds on to an honest sense of the real dangers one faces.

The future persona: a futures method to let your scenarios come to life

foresight ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 445-466 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alessandro Fergnani
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
User Centered Design ◽  
Futures Studies ◽  
Future Scenario ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Creation Process ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Mind ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to formally introduce the future persona, a futures method to let scenarios come to life. A future persona is a scenario-specific fictional individual living in the future scenario (s)he is meant to depict. The paper provides a formal, systematic and clear step-by-step guide on how to create engaging and effective future personas after a scenario planning exercise. Design/methodology/approach After having introduced the future persona method, tracing it back to the customer persona method in user centered design (UCD) and differentiating it from previous uses of futures characters in the futures studies literature and in other domains, an example of the creation process of four future personas based on four scenario archetypes of the futures of work is provided, illustrated with pictures and discussed. Findings Future personas, with their narratives and graphical illustrations, are found to be particularly useful to convey scenarios to a target audience. Practical implications Futures personas can be used in a scenario planning exercise to increase the clarity of scenarios in the mind of scenario planners and to let scenarios be known inside an organization. Originality/value Future personas can substantially enrich scenarios, increasing their liveliness, playfulness and empathy.

scholarly journals Backpacking’s future and its drifter past

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 193-204 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael O’ Regan
Keyword(s):  
Critical Review ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Research Topic ◽  
Conceptual Foundation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cultural Events ◽  
The Future ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to deconstruct the backpacker label by reconstructing it using the historical antecedent of drifting. Following the deconstruction of backpacking’s near past, the author build a clearer conceptual foundation for backpacking’s future. Design/methodology/approach The study is framed by scenario planning, which demands a critical review of the backpacking and an appreciation of its history in order to understand its future. Findings Backpacking, ever evolving, remains difficult to articulate and challenges researchers to “keep up” with its complexity and heterogeneity. This paper argues that researchers must learn more about how backpacking “works” by opening a dialogue with its past, before engaging in further research. The paper finds that a poor conceptualisation of backpacking has led to a codification of backpacker criteria. Practical implications Backpacking remains a research topic which draws disparate researchers using criteria that produces disparate results and deviations. By understanding its past, researchers will be better placed to explore the emancipatory impulses that drive backpackers today and in the future. Originality/value This papers’ value lies in the retrospection process which explores backpacking’s near past so as to “make sense” of present research and present scenarios for it is the immediate future. The paper re-anchors backpacking by investigating the major historical, social and cultural events leading up to its emergence.

Welcome to the marriage of human capability and artificial intelligence

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 10-14
Author(s):  
Ryan Scott ◽  
Malcolm Le Lievre
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Team Building ◽  
Workplace Change ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Future ◽  
Human Capability ◽  
Mind Set ◽  
Future Work ◽  
Crucial Part ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore insights methodology and technology by using behavioral to create a mind-set change in the way people work, especially in the age of artificial intelligence (AI). Design/methodology/approach The approach is to examine how AI is driving workplace change, introduce the idea that most organizations have untapped analytics, add the idea of what we know future work will look like and look at how greater, data-driven human behavioral insights will help prepare future human-to-human work and inform people’s work with and alongside AI. Findings Human (behavioral) intelligence will be an increasingly crucial part of behaviorally smart organizations, from hiring to placement to adaptation to team building, compliance and more. These human capability insights will, among other things, better prepare people and organizations for changing work roles, including working with and alongside AI and similar tech innovation. Research limitations/implications No doubt researchers across the private, public and nonprofit sectors will want to further study the nexus of human capability, behavioral insights technology and AI, but it is clear that such work is already underway and can prove even more valuable if adopted on a broader, deeper level. Practical implications Much “people data” inside organizations is currently not being harvested. Validated, scalable processes exist to mine that data and leverage it to help organizations of all types and sizes be ready for the future, particularly in regard to the marriage of human capability and AI. Social implications In terms of human capability and AI, individuals, teams, organizations, customers and other stakeholders will all benefit. The investment of time and other resources is minimal, but must include C-suite buy in. Originality/value Much exists on the softer aspects of the marriage of human capability and AI and other workplace advancements. What has been lacking – until now – is a 1) practical, 2) validated and 3) scalable behavioral insights tech form that quantifiably informs how people and AI will work in the future, especially side by side.

SFC reminding sponsors of the need to adopt an attitude of “professional scepticism”

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 82-84
Author(s):  
Gareth Hughes ◽  
James Comber
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Regulatory Regime ◽  
Group Company ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Professional Skepticism ◽  
Company Limited ◽  
A Company ◽  
Practical Implications ◽  
Do So

Purpose To remind sponsors to adopt an attitude of “professional skepticism” in Hong Kong IPOs. Design/methodology/approach Explains the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”)'s sanction on BOCOM International (Asia) Limited (“BIAL”) as a sign of determination to hold sponsors to account as gatekeepers to the Hong Kong capital markets. Findings The SFC has reprimanded and fined BIAL HK$15 million for failing to discharge its duties as a sole sponsor in a listing application for China Huinong Capital Group Company Limited (“China Huinong”), a company established in the PRC. This substantial fine reinforces the need for sponsors to ensure that they fully and properly discharge all of their duties, and that they will be held responsible for any failure to do so, even if the listing is not ultimately approved. Practical implications If sponsors fail to fulfil the requirements required under the sponsors’ regulatory regime, the SFC will be proactive and impose tough sanctions, even if the listing application is eventually withdrawn or returned by the SEHK. Originality/value Practical guidance from experienced regulatory, financial and commercial dispute resolution lawyers.

The many faces of suzhi in the Chinese organization and society

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sean Upton-McLaughlin
Keyword(s):  
Chinese Culture ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Chinese Society ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mainland Chinese ◽  
Foreign Companies ◽  
Expatriate Managers ◽  
The Many ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose – The purpose of this paper was to explore the Chinese concept of suzhi and how it relates to behavioral standards within mainland Chinese society and the workplace. The article provides a general discussion of suzhi and its inherent elements to act as a foundation for the education of expatriate managers and executives and for future research by Chinese human resource management (HRM) scholars. Design/methodology/approach – This paper draws on the author's first-hand experience and observations from five years of living and working abroad in mainland China with Chinese companies and executives. Findings – The concept of suzhi in China is a reflection of multiple behavioral standards throughout China. And while suzhi's roots are in ancient Chinese culture and Confucianism, it is also subject to influence and change. Practical implications – The paper may serve as a foundation both for expatriate managers seeking to improve HRM practices in foreign companies in China and future scholars who wish to conduct further research on suzhi and Chinese behavioral standards as they can be applied to the workplace. Originality/value – This is an attempt to enlighten expatriate managers and executives in China on the concept of suzhi and its implication for HRM in China.

Nine emerging student needs

2017 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 181-189 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Hines ◽  
Alexandra Whittington
Keyword(s):  
Higher Education ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Institutions Of Higher Education ◽  
Student Life ◽  
Student Needs ◽  
Content Type ◽  
World Cafe ◽  
The Future ◽  
The University ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose A research project exploring emerging student needs explored six aspects of student life: living, learning, working, playing, connecting and participating. Design/methodology/approach A modified version of the University of Houston’s “Framework Foresight” method was used to explore the future of six aspects of future student life. The resulting scenarios were analyzed for their implications, including the use of the World Café technique, and ultimately led to the identification of nine emerging student needs. Findings Nine specific emerging needs of future students could be used strategically by institutions of higher education to guide and inform planning and to generate innovative ideas for university offerings. Specific examples of offerings that would meet the projected future needs are recommended. Research limitations/implications In terms of research limitations, the paper is focused on the needs of students and does not purport to be an exhaustive analysis of all of the issues influencing higher education. It views the future of higher education through the lens of students and their emerging needs. Practical implications The paper is intended for educators, researchers and administrators to provide insight on how the needs of students, their key customers, are evolving. Originality/value This piece explores student life in its totality as way to more accurately identify student needs in the future.

Ninety days convert recruits into hosts at Edwardian Group London

2014 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 15-18
Keyword(s):  
Crucial Role ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Training And Development ◽  
Social Implications ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Future ◽  
First 90 Days ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose – Describes the various approaches taken to training and development at Edwardian Group London, a group of hotels. Design/methodology/approach – Examines the reasons for the training, the form it takes and the results it has achieved. Findings – Emphasizes the importance the company attaches to training in the first 90 days of an employee's tenure, when recruits receive general induction training plus training specific to their area of operation. Practical implications – Outlines how the company spots and develops its managers of the future. Social implications – Highlights the crucial role of training in ensuring that hotel guests have the best possible stay. Originality/value – Provides a thorough examination of the various forms of training at Edwardian Group London.

Fast fashion and the future

2014 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 157-160 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tom P. Abeles
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Tipping Point ◽  
Social Implications ◽  
Current Effort ◽  
Fast Fashion ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Science Technology ◽  
The Future ◽  
And Mathematics ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to suggest that all of the systems, education, economic and social, are caught in an ever-increasing pace, tied in large part to a set of beliefs, largely economic, that resemble a religion and for which there appears to not be a rational option to escape. Design/methodology/approach – A study of systems. Findings – It is argued that we are at a tipping point where there are too many holes in the intellectual dike, that a shift in many dimensions may not be preventable. Practical implications – While “techno-futurists” are promoting this increasing evolution pace towards a transformational singularity, there appears to be no serious consideration that humanity may get its “wish” as did King Midas. Social implications – There is a serious question as to whether there can be, and should be, alternatives not cast into the frame of the Neo-Luddites. Originality/value – This is a contrarian view of the current effort to promote the educational focus on STEM, science, technology, engineering and mathematics, almost as a pre-cursor to being able to participate in a technology-driven societal model of the future.

HR’s new role: rethinking and enabling digital engagement

2017 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 60-65 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ravin Jesuthasan
Keyword(s):  
Best Practices ◽  
Digital Technology ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Industrial Revolution ◽  
Digital Technologies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Future Of Work ◽  
The Future ◽  
Digital Engagement ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose This paper aims to explore how a new industrial revolution with digital technology at its core is disrupting the workplace. It shares how HR has an opportunity to use data and digital technologies to reinvent how organizations engage with their workforce. It answers the question of how HR pivots from its legacy focus on compliance and being a steward of employment to the work and helping the organization strengthen its connection with its workers through improved digital engagement. Design/methodology/approach The paper is based on Willis Towers Watson thought leadership and references recent findings from their research. Findings The paper explores how digital technologies have changed how workers connect with their co-workers and the organization. In addition, it examines how digital technologies are changing how work gets done. Research limitations/implications The paper is not exclusively based on research. Practical implications The paper explores how digital technologies drive engagement, HR’s role as steward of the work and enabler of digital engagement and best practices for enabling digital engagement in the modern workplace. Originality/value This paper fulfills a need to assist HR leaders in thinking through the implications of the future of work and how digital technologies will shape that future.

scholarly journals Approaches to help the practitioner determine “are we a learning organization”

2018 ◽  
Vol 25 (5) ◽  
pp. 362-365
Author(s):  
Simon Reese
Keyword(s):  
Learning Organization ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Many ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose The “Implication for practitioners” paper summarizes the articles within this issue of The Learning Organization in an easy-to-digest format for the practitioner audience. This paper aims to outline how in practice the structure and people and the interplay of both have an impact in creating a learning organization. Included in the paper is a summary of articles within this issue that outline different studies that can easily lead toward actions in practice. Design/methodology/approach The summary identifies specific elements from the articles within this issue that can applied in practice. Findings This issue of The Learning Organization is full of content to help practitioners think more deeply about assessing their organization and offers application of tools that can be easily applied in any organization. Practical implications The “Implication for practitioners” paper aims to outline areas where the articles can be further applied. The articles within this issue outline how structure and characteristics (or people) can provide a significant impact on developing a learning organization. Originality/value Readers can gain value in reading this summary, as it outline some of the many practical ideas outlined within the articles of this issue of The Learning Organization.

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